Relaxation of restrictions

Looking at the journal and an article on the nursing home situation, didn't take long to swing from " their doing a great job" to outrage of course it was predictable as fcuk. The same idiots running government and hse in charge, the same ones decimated in election due to their epic incompetence ...

Rainmann

Just watched this, I thought it was an interesting insight into the Sweedish approach - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY

Rainmann wrote: »

Just watched this, I thought it was an interesting insight into the Sweedish approach - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY

Yeah watched it earlier , he reckons its futile. End result will be virtually the same, wouldn't surprise me

scwazrh

Is it possible that we are just postponing every one getting the virus ? As in everyone will get it at some stage and either beat it and build up immunity or die from it ?plenty of sources saying it’s going to die down and then come back a few times , we can’t all sit at home waiting for a vaccination.

scwazrh wrote: »

Is it possible that we are just postponing every one getting the virus ? As in everyone will get it at some stage and either beat it and build up immunity or die from it ?plenty of sources saying it’s going to die down and then come back a few times , we can’t all sit at home waiting for a vaccination.

Yes the professor at Above link reckons that

HeidiHeidi

scwazrh wrote: »

Is it possible that we are just postponing every one getting the virus ? As in everyone will get it at some stage and either beat it and build up immunity or die from it ?plenty of sources saying it’s going to die down and then come back a few times , we can’t all sit at home waiting for a vaccination.

That's more or less exactly what we're doing - slowing down the rate at which infections happen so the health system doesn't get overwhelmed.

If the hospitals get overrun, well look at what happened in Italy.....

https://townhall.com/columnists/marinamedvin/2020/04/15/israeli-professor-shows-virus-follows-fixed-pattern-n2566915

Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University, who also serves on the research and development advisory board for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, plotted the rates of new coronavirus infections of the U.S., U.K., Sweden, Italy, Israel, Switzerland, France, Germany, and Spain. The numbers told a shocking story: irrespective of whether the country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way. His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week.

The Wuhan Virus follows its own pattern, he told Mako, an Israeli news agency. It is a fixed pattern that is not dependent on freedom or quarantine. “There is a decline in the number of infections even [in countries] without closures, and it is similar to the countries with closures,” he wrote in his paper.

“Is the coronavirus expansion exponential? The answer by the numbers is simple: no. Expansion begins exponentially but fades quickly after about eight weeks,” Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel concluded. The reason whycoronavirus follows a fixed pattern is yet unknown. "I have no explanation,” he told Mako, “There are is kinds of speculation: maybe it's climate-related, maybe the virus has its own life cycle.”

But what about Italy and their staggering 12% mortality rate? “The health system in Italy has its own problems. It has nothing to do with coronavirus. In 2017 it also collapsed because of the flu,” Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel told the news agency. Indeed, Italy’s exceptionally high coronavirus mortality rate is eerily reminiscent of their unusually high flu mortality rates. Supportive of this theory, Germany, has low flu infection and mortality rates and similarly low coronavirus rates.

Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel concludes in his analysis summary paper that the data from the past 50 days indicates that the closure policies of the quarantine countries can be replaced by more moderate social distancing policies. The numbers simply do not support quarantine or economic closure.

On the reasonableness of Israel’s unprecedented quarantine and closure, he commented to the news agency, “I think it's mass hysteria. I have no other way to describe it. 4,500 people die each year from the flu in Israel because of complications, so close the country because of that? No. I don't see a reason to do it because of a lower-risk epidemic.”

While the American policies remain less restrictive than those of Israel, it is important to understand the origins of our own “mass hysteria” response. President Trump urged a strong coronavirus response after consulting with Dr. Fauci and his team, who relied on a British model predicting 2.2 million deaths in the United States and 500,000 deaths in the U.K. But that model was developed by Professor Neil Ferguson, who had a history of wildly overestimating death rates through his prediction models. Professor Ferguson was not known for his reliability, and his 2001 disease model was criticized as “not fit for purpose” after it predicted that up to 150,000 people could die in the U.K. from mad cow disease (177 deaths to date). Ferguson’s U.K. coronavirus deaths prediction is now down to 20,000 people, 4% of the original prediction.

Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel has mathematically shown us that coronavirus closures were a mistake. It's a tough reality. Americans lost their jobs and businesses went under because the United States, along with most first world nations, acted on the chilling predictions of a severely flawed model, a reading of Professor Ferguson’s tarot cards. Hindsight is 20/20, so we have to be realistic with our criticism. President Trump did not want 2.2 million Americans to die and did what he thought was necessary to save our lives, relying on a model his advisors told him was trustworthy. It's done. It happened. But it doesn't mean that he should continue the course.

It’s been one month since our country declared a national coronavirus emergency and life as we knew it had ceased. Americans have been growing agitated, unwilling to continue in this way, knowing something is wrong. Trump has sensed that his constituency is displeased with the authoritarian power grab by our Governors and has repeatedly stated that he wishes to reopen the country, but that he needs more information to make the right decision. Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel’s data analysis provides Trump with the assurance that he needs to reopen America.

Mr. President, please review Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel’s research and take bold steps to mitigate the damage to our economy. Now that we see the actual data, continuing the closure course is a greater error, a knowing error, one that can no longer be justified by good intentions.

Corkgirl20

Have we any idea when they will be giving the update for the new regulations (for after May 5th)?

ChikiChiki

scwazrh wrote: »

Is it possible that we are just postponing every one getting the virus ? As in everyone will get it at some stage and either beat it and build up immunity or die from it ?plenty of sources saying it’s going to die down and then come back a few times , we can’t all sit at home waiting for a vaccination.

Thats what we are doing. The purpose of these restrictions is not to overwhelm the health system. Restrictions will ease to some extent and we will return to a new normal that is abnormal in the context of how things were before the virus.

Social distancing is here until a vaccine is found.

Edit **Basically what Heidi said. I didnt read their post before I posted.

Strumms

I think it’s counter productive to be constantly looking over at other countries and comparing and seeing what is going on there... “ohh look x country have no restrictions and only xx deaths”.. countries with different social makeups, different population density, different everything... this bôllocks of.. “well look how well x country is doing”... when in truth this is rubbish some cretin who worships making a whole load of euros and to hell might have to be a casualty to enable this.

[Deleted User]

Idbatterim wrote: »

Looking at the journal and an article on the nursing home situation, didn't take long to swing from " their doing a great job" to outrage of course it was predictable as fcuk. The same idiots running government and hse in charge, the same ones decimated in election due to their epic incompetence ...

I'm actually not a fan of our government but any of our existing parties would follow the exact same guidelines. As has most of the globe. The UK is an example of what happens when the warnings aren't taken seriously.

VonLuck

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

That's more or less exactly what we're doing - slowing down the rate at which infections happen so the health system doesn't get overwhelmed.

If the hospitals get overrun, well look at what happened in Italy.....

It's amazing after so many weeks into the restrictions that people still don't know why the measures are in place.

No wonder we have so many people saying to end the lockdown ASAP!

costacorta

Corkgirl20 wrote: »

Have we any idea when they will be giving the update for the new regulations (for after May 5th)?

May 4th I presume a state of the nation address

VonLuck

costacorta wrote: »

May 4th I presume a state of the nation address

That would be very short notice for businesses to reopen, if that turns out to be one of the reduced measures.

VonLuck wrote: »

That would be very short notice for businesses to reopen, if that turns out to be one of the reduced measures.

Wont be too much happening, DIY shops will open, sine small shops and construction sites

VonLuck wrote: »

That would be very short notice for businesses to reopen, if that turns out to be one of the reduced measures.

I’m noticing this week in particular food outlets that can are trying to reopen. I assume they just can’t take anymore and it’s a choice of closing down completely or doing something. The lockdown will gave to come to its natural end now I think.
Looking back at texts from my gym back in early March almost look comical now- they were closing down for two weeks! And at the time that seemed incredible. A lot has gone on since then

VonLuck

average_runner wrote: »

Wont be too much happening, DIY shops will open, sine small shops and construction sites

Even still, hard to have staff prepared to work with less than 12 hours notice.

road_high wrote: »

I’m noticing this week in particular food outlets that can are trying to reopen. I assume they just can’t take anymore and it’s a choice of closing down completely or doing something. The lockdown will gave to come to its natural end now I think.
Looking back at texts from my gym back in early March almost look comical now- they were closing down for two weeks! And at the time that seemed incredible. A lot has gone on since then

But food outlets especially in the city will struggle for another 2 months, as offices won't be at near capacity for a long time, maybe never again as companies will.see working from home will save in rent and can do hot desks

drunkmonkey

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Social distancing is here until a vaccine is found.

We have to give up on this vaccine idea, it's a pipe dream, should grandparents never be allowed within 2 meters of their grandchildren again, should the over 70's never be allowed a normal life, will kids not be allowed play together, were in 1984 and a lot of people are wishing it stays that way. There are severe mental health issues with these people and I wonder if they ever knew what it was like to be free, I'm assuming there mainly city dwellers living in cramped isolation most of their lives and the social to them is media. Sad, sad people.

average_runner wrote: »

But food outlets especially in the city will struggle for another 2 months, as offices won't be at near capacity for a long time, maybe never again as companies will.see working from home will save in rent and can do hot desks

That’s very true. The big beneficiaries of this have been the supermarket conglomerates. Rents are completely out of kilter with what business will be there

Mic 1972

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No. The death announced today include deaths going back to April 3rd.

Maybe the same is happening with the daily new cases? it is possible that some days are lower/higher than others because numbers may not always be available at the time of reporting and get added later
The daily new cases also show unexpected spikes and then sudden drops. I'm interested in today's results

drunkmonkey wrote: »

We have to give up on this vaccine idea, it's a pipe dream, should grandparents never be allowed within 2 meters of their grandchildren again, should the over 70's never be allowed a normal life, will kids not be allowed play together, were in 1984 and a lot of people are wishing it stays that way. There are severe mental health issues with these people and I wonder if they ever knew what it was like to be free, I'm assuming there mainly city dwellers living in cramped isolation most of their lives and the social to them is media. Sad, sad people.

You cannot just magic up a vaccine as some people seem to think. You need trials, reems of data to support its safety and efficacy. Not going to happen for a long time

Mic 1972

The simple logic is that lifting the restrictions will bring us back to the start of the outbreak

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The simple logic is that lifting the restrictions will bring us back to the start of the outbreak

Not if done in a control environment. If we can control the numbers and have 24-48 hr testing we will ease the pressure on the ICU.

Wont see pubs or nightclubs for a long time

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The simple logic is that lifting the restrictions will bring us back to the start of the outbreak

Why?

drunkmonkey

road_high wrote: »

You cannot just magic up a vaccine as some people seem to think. You need trials, reems of data to support its safety and efficacy. Not going to happen for a long time

There's no vaccine for any other coronavirus after decades of research, you also need about 90% of the population to take this vaccine to provide immunity. Do some seriously believe the whole world is going to have to take a shot of something that hasn't been tested over years and years. They have no clue about vaccines. I for one won't be taking a shot of anything which has only been tested for a year or two after it's discovered.

snowcat

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The simple logic is that lifting the restrictions will bring us back to the start of the outbreak

Not entirely true. The purpose of the initial lockdown was to prevent an initial surge in hospitals overwhelming them This has been largely achieved. There is now a lot of infected and recovered cases and a degree of immunity in the system . It is early yet but any country that had a significant outbreak and a subsequent decline in cases has not seen a further surge after easing lockdown.