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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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average_runner

VonLuck wrote: »

That would be very short notice for businesses to reopen, if that turns out to be one of the reduced measures.

Wont be too much happening, DIY shops will open, sine small shops and construction sites

VonLuck

costacorta wrote: »

May 4th I presume a state of the nation address

That would be very short notice for businesses to reopen, if that turns out to be one of the reduced measures.

costacorta

Corkgirl20 wrote: »

Have we any idea when they will be giving the update for the new regulations (for after May 5th)?

May 4th I presume a state of the nation address

VonLuck

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

That's more or less exactly what we're doing - slowing down the rate at which infections happen so the health system doesn't get overwhelmed.

If the hospitals get overrun, well look at what happened in Italy.....

It's amazing after so many weeks into the restrictions that people still don't know why the measures are in place.

No wonder we have so many people saying to end the lockdown ASAP!

[Deleted User]

Idbatterim wrote: »

Looking at the journal and an article on the nursing home situation, didn't take long to swing from " their doing a great job" to outrage of course it was predictable as fcuk. The same idiots running government and hse in charge, the same ones decimated in election due to their epic incompetence ...

I'm actually not a fan of our government but any of our existing parties would follow the exact same guidelines. As has most of the globe. The UK is an example of what happens when the warnings aren't taken seriously.

Strumms

I think it’s counter productive to be constantly looking over at other countries and comparing and seeing what is going on there... “ohh look x country have no restrictions and only xx deaths”.. countries with different social makeups, different population density, different everything... this bôllocks of.. “well look how well x country is doing”... when in truth this is rubbish some cretin who worships making a whole load of euros and to hell might have to be a casualty to enable this.

ChikiChiki

scwazrh wrote: »

Is it possible that we are just postponing every one getting the virus ? As in everyone will get it at some stage and either beat it and build up immunity or die from it ?plenty of sources saying it’s going to die down and then come back a few times , we can’t all sit at home waiting for a vaccination.

Thats what we are doing. The purpose of these restrictions is not to overwhelm the health system. Restrictions will ease to some extent and we will return to a new normal that is abnormal in the context of how things were before the virus.

Social distancing is here until a vaccine is found.

Edit **Basically what Heidi said. I didnt read their post before I posted.

Corkgirl20

Have we any idea when they will be giving the update for the new regulations (for after May 5th)?

Idbatterim

https://townhall.com/columnists/marinamedvin/2020/04/15/israeli-professor-shows-virus-follows-fixed-pattern-n2566915

Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University, who also serves on the research and development advisory board for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, plotted the rates of new coronavirus infections of the U.S., U.K., Sweden, Italy, Israel, Switzerland, France, Germany, and Spain. The numbers told a shocking story: irrespective of whether the country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way. His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week.

The Wuhan Virus follows its own pattern, he told Mako, an Israeli news agency. It is a fixed pattern that is not dependent on freedom or quarantine. “There is a decline in the number of infections even [in countries] without closures, and it is similar to the countries with closures,” he wrote in his paper.

“Is the coronavirus expansion exponential? The answer by the numbers is simple: no. Expansion begins exponentially but fades quickly after about eight weeks,” Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel concluded. The reason whycoronavirus follows a fixed pattern is yet unknown. "I have no explanation,” he told Mako, “There are is kinds of speculation: maybe it's climate-related, maybe the virus has its own life cycle.”

But what about Italy and their staggering 12% mortality rate? “The health system in Italy has its own problems. It has nothing to do with coronavirus. In 2017 it also collapsed because of the flu,” Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel told the news agency. Indeed, Italy’s exceptionally high coronavirus mortality rate is eerily reminiscent of their unusually high flu mortality rates. Supportive of this theory, Germany, has low flu infection and mortality rates and similarly low coronavirus rates.

Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel concludes in his analysis summary paper that the data from the past 50 days indicates that the closure policies of the quarantine countries can be replaced by more moderate social distancing policies. The numbers simply do not support quarantine or economic closure.

On the reasonableness of Israel’s unprecedented quarantine and closure, he commented to the news agency, “I think it's mass hysteria. I have no other way to describe it. 4,500 people die each year from the flu in Israel because of complications, so close the country because of that? No. I don't see a reason to do it because of a lower-risk epidemic.”

While the American policies remain less restrictive than those of Israel, it is important to understand the origins of our own “mass hysteria” response. President Trump urged a strong coronavirus response after consulting with Dr. Fauci and his team, who relied on a British model predicting 2.2 million deaths in the United States and 500,000 deaths in the U.K. But that model was developed by Professor Neil Ferguson, who had a history of wildly overestimating death rates through his prediction models. Professor Ferguson was not known for his reliability, and his 2001 disease model was criticized as “not fit for purpose” after it predicted that up to 150,000 people could die in the U.K. from mad cow disease (177 deaths to date). Ferguson’s U.K. coronavirus deaths prediction is now down to 20,000 people, 4% of the original prediction.

Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel has mathematically shown us that coronavirus closures were a mistake. It's a tough reality. Americans lost their jobs and businesses went under because the United States, along with most first world nations, acted on the chilling predictions of a severely flawed model, a reading of Professor Ferguson’s tarot cards. Hindsight is 20/20, so we have to be realistic with our criticism. President Trump did not want 2.2 million Americans to die and did what he thought was necessary to save our lives, relying on a model his advisors told him was trustworthy. It's done. It happened. But it doesn't mean that he should continue the course.

It’s been one month since our country declared a national coronavirus emergency and life as we knew it had ceased. Americans have been growing agitated, unwilling to continue in this way, knowing something is wrong. Trump has sensed that his constituency is displeased with the authoritarian power grab by our Governors and has repeatedly stated that he wishes to reopen the country, but that he needs more information to make the right decision. Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel’s data analysis provides Trump with the assurance that he needs to reopen America.

Mr. President, please review Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel’s research and take bold steps to mitigate the damage to our economy. Now that we see the actual data, continuing the closure course is a greater error, a knowing error, one that can no longer be justified by good intentions.

HeidiHeidi

scwazrh wrote: »

Is it possible that we are just postponing every one getting the virus ? As in everyone will get it at some stage and either beat it and build up immunity or die from it ?plenty of sources saying it’s going to die down and then come back a few times , we can’t all sit at home waiting for a vaccination.

That's more or less exactly what we're doing - slowing down the rate at which infections happen so the health system doesn't get overwhelmed.

If the hospitals get overrun, well look at what happened in Italy.....

Idbatterim

scwazrh wrote: »

Is it possible that we are just postponing every one getting the virus ? As in everyone will get it at some stage and either beat it and build up immunity or die from it ?plenty of sources saying it’s going to die down and then come back a few times , we can’t all sit at home waiting for a vaccination.

Yes the professor at Above link reckons that

scwazrh

Is it possible that we are just postponing every one getting the virus ? As in everyone will get it at some stage and either beat it and build up immunity or die from it ?plenty of sources saying it’s going to die down and then come back a few times , we can’t all sit at home waiting for a vaccination.

Idbatterim

Rainmann wrote: »

Just watched this, I thought it was an interesting insight into the Sweedish approach - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY

Yeah watched it earlier , he reckons its futile. End result will be virtually the same, wouldn't surprise me

Rainmann

Just watched this, I thought it was an interesting insight into the Sweedish approach - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY

Idbatterim

Looking at the journal and an article on the nursing home situation, didn't take long to swing from " their doing a great job" to outrage of course it was predictable as fcuk. The same idiots running government and hse in charge, the same ones decimated in election due to their epic incompetence ...

rosiem

Speakerboxx wrote: »

So we are 17 days behind still? I thought backlog was cleared?

Testing backlog is cleared. The reporting of deaths is not instant and is a separate issue not a backlog.

mandrake04

easypazz wrote: »

“What we’re working on at the moment is a plan that will be ready by the end of April-early May in advance of the May 5th big day if you like. And what we hope to set out is a step-wise plan which indicates how we would reopen the country in different steps and what are the criteria that would have to be met to move from one stage to the next.”

Even Leo is ramping May 5th as "the big day"

You are probably going get some soft-cock token easement to sugar coat the reality, but even today Harris is pandering saying that to ease restrictions too soon could un-do “all the hard work!!”

Really that sounds like they are buttering up your sphincter so when you are asked to bend over it doesn’t hurt as much.

Charles Babbage

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Though I'd imagine Holohan et al would say it needs to come down a lot more before they'd be happy about easing restrictions. 400 still a shedload for a small country...

If the testing has indeed caught up then these people must have got the virus in the last 10 days or so. That is not a "good" situation.

drunkmonkey

There's also guestimates in the figure which I don't think they should be counting, you either sure or you don't include it.
The lepracauns had a bad day, was there 3 or 4 of them died. I think we're the only country reporting unknown genders.

HeidiHeidi

Speakerboxx wrote: »

We had 79 deaths today. Double that of Sunday

They weren't deaths that occurred yesterday. They were deaths notified yesterday, they could have occurred any time in the last four weeks (or since deaths started getting notified linked to Covid 19, whatever that period is, I'm not sure exactly).

They had a guesstimate curve for deaths that actually occurred yesterday (because there's a delay between deaths occurring and being notified) and they are reducing.

Speakerboxx

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No. The death announced today include deaths going back to April 3rd.

So we are 17 days behind still? I thought backlog was cleared?

Speakerboxx

Tell me how wrote: »

It was the same last week, Monday versus Sunday.

And Tuesday versus Monday

FintanMcluskey

Speakerboxx wrote: »

We had 79 deaths today. Double that of Sunday

No. The death announced today include deaths going back to April 3rd.

Loafing Oaf

niallo27 wrote: »

The new case numbers

Though I'd imagine Holohan et al would say it needs to come down a lot more before they'd be happy about easing restrictions. 400 still a shedload for a small country...

Tell me how

Speakerboxx wrote: »

We had 79 deaths today. Double that of Sunday

It was the same last week, Monday versus Sunday.

Speakerboxx

niallo27 wrote: »

The new case numbers and actual deaths in the last 24 hours.

We had 79 deaths today. Double that of Sunday

Tell me how

Gael23 wrote: »

There are hundreds of empty hospital beds in the system which makes these restrictions harder to take

Christ but that's a fcking dark way to phrase you wondering if the lock down was an over reaction. (It wasn't)

niallo27

Speakerboxx wrote: »

So we are flattening the curve. What part of today's figures makes us confident we are beating the spread of coronavirus?

The new case numbers and actual deaths in the last 24 hours.

niallo27

Deleted User wrote: »

"It's so hard to stick to this diet now that I'm losing weight. If it wasn't working, it would be easier."

Yes but now that you have lost the weight, it's time for a balanced diet, if you continue on your original diet it can end up being very unhealthy for you.

Speakerboxx

So we are flattening the curve. What part of today's figures makes us confident we are beating the spread of coronavirus?