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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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Idbatterim

no wonder people are going out more etc, this is a virus, so awful, that many who have had it, havent even realised it, I'm quaking in my boots! :rolleyes:

easypazz

ixoy wrote: »

Of course everything still needs to be funded - the hundreds of millions needed just to fund PPE never mind the hospitals. The billions in support payments. The effects of being unemployed on families both economically and socially.
Longer term - wages elsewhere are slashes, pension funds raided to fund this, retirement age increased dramatically for anyone under 50, etc.

There's a certain cohort here (not saying it's you) who cannot seem to grasp that and would prefer everyone was locked down indefinitely until a vaccine.

Well said.

We simply can't sustain this policy as it will do more harm than good.

topper75

I remember when I first encountered Health Economics and studied things like QALYs. Not tasteful reading but I had to acknowledge that somebody somewhere has to make these decisions.

Not practical to hope that you can sacrifice any amount of resources over any length of time to keep somebody in the game. That is not the world we live in. Never was.

alwald

Idbatterim wrote: »

no wonder people are going out more etc, this is a virus, so awful, that many who have had it, havent even realised it, I'm quaking in my boots! :rolleyes:

Your comment is only valid if we know most or all about the virus which is not the case...not a smart way of looking at the virus IMO.

Nermal

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Nightmare for pubs, sport and music as 'summer cancelled' by Harris warning

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/nightmare-for-pubs-sport-and-music-as-summer-cancelled-by-harris-warning-39140420.html

Harris' interview seems to be getting him in trouble

He's getting into trouble because he's finally telling the truth about his strategy.

He's telling the 20-29 year-olds that their festivals are cancelled because of a disease that will kill 0.004% of them.

He's telling the 30-39 year-olds that they won't be able to go pub because 0.007% of them might die.

https://twitter.com/RF_HFC/status/1252210492531183622

New Dutch serology study. The data is out there, and it's conclusive that whatever lives we're saving are at inordinately high cost. We cannot wait till May 5th. We must start undoing this damage immediately.

easypazz

topper75 wrote: »

I remember when I first encountered Health Economics and studied things like QALYs. Not tasteful reading but I had to acknowledge that somebody somewhere has to make these decisions.

Not practical to hope that you can sacrifice any amount of resources over any length of time to keep somebody in the game. That is not the world we live in. Never was.

Which is why the lockdown must be unwound, and rather quickly.

A lot of distancing policies can remain in some form, which will be enough to keep the infection rate stable and allow the economy to begin to function.

drunkmonkey

ixoy wrote: »

retirement age increased dramatically for anyone under 50, etc.

The opposite should probably happen as we'll be back to 60 life expectancy. Retirement at 45.

Idbatterim

alwald wrote: »

Your comment is only valid if we know most or all about the virus which is not the case...not a smart way of looking at the virus IMO.

I still appreciate the problem if there is a surge and the issues it creates for hospitals, but they have ramped up ICU capacity, the initial scaremonger figures with deaths etc, were based on capacity at the time...

Cyrus

pjohnson wrote: »

Thats not a problem for them. They dismiss it as an "old people" disease and claim that children definitely dont catch it. Hoping they get their hands some juicy inheritance themselves I'd say.

do you dispute that the majority of those that have died are over 70 ?

And there are various studies that suggest kids are far less likely to catch it, they dont know why but the number of infected children is very low compared to adults.

so much for deadly super spreaders.

Beanybabog

Apologies if it’s been mentioned already, but when are we going to find out what happens next? I thought Leo Varadkar mentioned outlining the next steps in advance - ie give us some indication of when we reach X cases, Y will happen? Or will we be waiting until the 5th to know?

Cyrus

Beanybabog wrote: »

Apologies if it’s been mentioned already, but when are we going to find out what happens next? I thought Leo Varadkar mentioned outlining the next steps in advance - ie give us some indication of when we reach X cases, Y will happen? Or will we be waiting until the 5th to know?

he said end of the month,

the earlier he announces the next steps the earlier people will start to move to the new normal whatever that is

so he will wait as long as he can id imagine.

tobefrank321

At some stage we will have to bite the bullet when it comes to getting back to a normal economy.

I'd open pubs, hotels and restaurants before I'd open schools though. At least adults practice a modicum of social distancing and good hygiene. Children are just not that wired into it and likely don't understand the seriousness of covid19.

With the right measures in place there will still be community spread in pubs, hotels and restaurants but you'd hope to control it a bit. You'd still have to advise that those with underlying conditions and those over 70 would avoid them, until a vaccine comes along.

I'd open schools last as by then you'd hope there'd be some form of herd immunity and a vaccine. Very few if anyone will lose their jobs with schools remaining closed apart from substitute teachers. We can't say the same about every other industry.

Cork Boy 53

Idbatterim wrote: »

no wonder people are going out more etc, this is a virus, so awful, that many who have had it, havent even realised it, I'm quaking in my boots! :rolleyes:

And there are many who would have imagined they would only have a mild illness if they were infected with the virus who are now in hospital ICU units or lying in a cemetery plot.

alwald

Idbatterim wrote: »

I still appreciate the problem if there is a surge and the issues it creates for hospitals, but they have ramped up ICU capacity, the initial scaremonger figures with deaths etc, were based on capacity at the time...

The risks associated with this virus cannot be limited only on what you mentioned as we know very little about C-19...thankfully the professionals in this sector don't share your views...

Phoebas

Nermal wrote: »

He's getting into trouble because he's finally telling the truth about his strategy.

He's telling the 20-29 year-olds that their festivals are cancelled because of a disease that will kill 0.004% of them.

He's telling the 30-39 year-olds that they won't be able to go pub because 0.007% of them might die.

And you've simply ignored all of the other groups that are put at risk, like the 0.492% of 60-70s.

irishgeo

Beanybabog wrote: »

Apologies if it’s been mentioned already, but when are we going to find out what happens next? I thought Leo Varadkar mentioned outlining the next steps in advance - ie give us some indication of when we reach X cases, Y will happen? Or will we be waiting until the 5th to know?

The Friday before the 5th.

Idbatterim

Listen this place is an echo chamber, partially because the fantastic irish media, are all on the same page, lockdown! you are on the internet, go see what other countries media and "experts" think...

tobefrank321

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

And there are many who would have imagined they would only suffer mild illness if they were infected with the virus who are now in hospital ICU units or lying in a cemetery plot.

I had a look at some of the celebrities who were infected by this. It seems the reasonably in shape ones with one or two exceptions came through it ok. The overweight ones like Boris Johnson did worse and some died. Most athletes suffered little more than a mild version of it. Oddly enough one Olympic champion athlete did suffer badly, possibly because of being super fit.

We are going to have to cocoon the elderly and those with conditions such as obesity, diabetes and hypertension until there is a vaccine. This will hugely reduce pressure on hospitals. The risk of death outside this group is minimal, perhaps 1 in 1000 or even 1 in 10000 if you take the population as a whole. More would likely die from cancer if left untreated.

Covid19 is just something we will have to put up with for at least a year if not more, until a vaccine is found.

alwald

Idbatterim wrote: »

Listen this place is an echo chamber, partially because the fantastic irish media, are all on the same page, lockdown! you are on the internet, go see what other countries media and "experts" think...

Do we know for sure which strategy is working?? Because so far, in terms of countries that were seriously impacted, the only strategy with results is the one followed by Wuhan.

tobefrank321

Phoebas wrote: »

And you've simply ignored all of the other groups that are put at risk, like the 0.492% of 60-70s.

The older you get the more underlying conditions you tend to have, eg heart disease, diabetes and the like. This is well known.

If you lift restrictions such categories still have to cocoon until there is a vaccine or the risk of infection is no longer there.

road_high

Strumms wrote: »

I’m guessing gyms will be one of the last to return to normality.. looking at the likes of elverys and other sites selling equipment an awful lot of items seemed to be out of stock as of last week. Regular gym goers trying to continue to be able to work out and non regulars looking to use the extra time to get fit and stay fit as well as killing time.

I’m doing classes on Facebook live. €10 a week for three. They’re ok but i definitely will drop them once the gyms hopefully re open. I find it hard to get motivated despite the instructor being really good.
Had a mat and a kettlebell which I never used until now at home.

road_high

Beanybabog wrote: »

Apologies if it’s been mentioned already, but when are we going to find out what happens next? I thought Leo Varadkar mentioned outlining the next steps in advance - ie give us some indication of when we reach X cases, Y will happen? Or will we be waiting until the 5th to know?

I hope it’s not all announced on the 5th. Ive had my fill of these big dramatic announcements. Perhaps next week on we need a step by step update rather than sone mad rush Friday evening. People and business will need lots of time to plan and reopen as they’ve been off a long time now

Sierra Oscar

Seems to be a lot more people out and about in Dublin today compared to the last couple of weeks.

TedR

Over weekend, hearing Govt mentioning that hardware suppliers are to be allowed to open again, does anyone know if the likes of Woodies/Homebase have made any plans to do so?
Sorry if this was already asked.

tobefrank321

I appreciate that Simon Harris has a difficult job, but I wish he'd keep his mouth shut about what measures might be lifted. He has no medical or scientific background, and appears to be going off on his own with announcements rather than being advised by experts.

Leave it to the experts, Holohan and Nolan and a couple others to decide what should and shouldn't be lifted. Politicians have no place in deciding, not here, not in the UK or the US.

Personally I think it would be idiotic to open schools for even one day a week. Kids don't know what social distancing is, and many will happily cough or sneeze in another kids directions as a joke.

The ability to implement some kind of social distancing and good hygiene should be fundamental to deciding if a business can re-open.

Irish Aris

road_high wrote: »

I hope it’s not all announced on the 5th. Ive had my fill of these big dramatic announcements. Perhaps next week on we need a step by step update rather than sone mad rush Friday evening. People and business will need lots of time to plan and reopen as they’ve been off a long time now

Very good point and I agree.
I would think that they already know which types of restrictions are on the table that can be lifted after the bank holiday weekend.
I expect that the timing of announcement will heavily depend on how quickly the numbers of new cases go down. If by the end of this week numbers are reduced, it will give them an opportunity to announce by Tuesday or Wednesday week. Chances are though that official announcement will be closer to Friday in case there are any surprises.

I also think that after the (if any) first round of restrictions lifting we might have to wait until the June bank holiday weekend for the next round. Would that make sense or the 2-week timeframe is preferable?

easypazz

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

And there are many who would have imagined they would only have a mild illness if they were infected with the virus who are now in hospital ICU units or lying in a cemetery plot.

Yeah lets keep the lockdown going until January.:rolleyes:

Gael23

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Seems to be a lot more people out and about in Dublin today compared to the last couple of weeks.

That will happen the longer these measures remain in place

lord quackinton

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0420/1132624-pandemic-unemployment-payments/

How is this not the headline news
This is going to cost billions
In the short term at least 5 billion
When the 350 reverts to 200 and hoping we get the numbers down to half million over time an extra 5 billion per year on welfare minimum

Forget new schools new roads housing and health projects
Our economy just traveled back in time 35 years
For those who don’t remember that time - say your prayers because things are about to get very real very fast

Charles Babbage

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The older you get the more underlying conditions you tend to have, eg heart disease, diabetes and the like. This is well known.

If you lift restrictions such categories still have to cocoon until there is a vaccine or the risk of infection is no longer there.

Remembering that there are still plenty of 50+ people in employment.