Kermit.de.frog wrote: » So, your argument is that Sweden has not implemented the same level of lock down measures (they actually do have counter measures incidentally) and that somehow this has restricted transmission to a greater extent than those who have? Is that your argument?
IAMAMORON wrote: » I think any argument at this early stage is kind of pointless, there is still not enough information available. But now is not the time for I told you so, it is too early to tell.
IAMAMORON wrote: » I think any argument at this early stage is kind of pointless, there is still not enough information available. This gets compounded by untoward bias getting posted online. Every know-it-all seems to be handpicking facts from the web and dumping them to facilitate their own arguments about how this is going to pan out. All we can tell for certain is that if you hide under your bed and don't leave the room you will not contract the virus. But you can't do anything else either. Personally I think countries with less extreme measures will have larger herd immunity by now which will expedite their journey back to normality. Countries who have locked down sooner don't have this luxury. Obviously the downside of this is a larger death rate, for now. There is no perfect solution at this point. Talk to a paramedic in Bergamo and you will most likely get a different opinion to one working in Sydney. This phucker has killed and mutated and killed again and we simply don't know what can happen. But now is not the time for I told you so, it is too early to tell.
wakka12 wrote: » It makes sense but there is not any great proof of that yet
jibber5000 wrote: » Now stay with me here. 9% of those who have died here did so in Intensive care units. Thus 91% died in wards or community. When assessing whether a patient should go to ICU a score called the charlson comorbidity index is used. If that score is 0% 10 year survival, a patient will not be intubated. In fact an anesthesist will likely not even assess the patient. This will be assessed when a patient comes into ED with a likely covid infection. So approx 91% of those who died were assessed by some medical professional and felt due to age and co morbidities that they were not fit for ICU. This should be done by using the CCMI. Does that makes sense?
Akrasia wrote: » So your issue was that the word 'probably' was misused rather than the use of the word itself It was a statement of opinion rather than a statement of probability That poster did justify their opinion in the claim that most of those dying from the virus were old with preexisting conditions and some of them could have been already on deaths door, but that in no way creates a strong enough case to justify a claim that a global pandenic involving a life threatening illness probably won't increase the overall death rate for the year
Kermit.de.frog wrote: » If this is success i'd hate to see what failure looks like
biko wrote: » Is that also true for China, Italy, USA? Or just Sweden?
sydthebeat wrote: » 60% of deaths occurred in hospitals, which means 40% occurred in community. ICUs numbers are included in hospital numbers, they are not separate. you have no evidence to support that CCI assessment was carried out on all the 40% that died in community
Akrasia wrote: » It is perfectly reasonable to compare countries with similar population demographics, health systems, geographical features and cultures The differences in infection and death rates between similar closely connected countries can be more readily attributable to political choices than by just comparing them to the worst hit countries
Multipass wrote: » Yes but that curve will plunge just as steeply the other side, meaning it’s over with quicker. Whereas our curves will stretch out for longer. As long as ICUs don’t get overwhelmed who’s to say that pulling the plaster off quickly isn’t a valid strategy?
IAMAMORON wrote: » It is true for the entire world Biko. We have no clue how this is going to pan out.
sydthebeat wrote: » Swedens numbers today are worrying. Completely going against the trend of low weekend numbers due to processing. Either they have changed their administration processes, or we are in for some seriously worrying figures come midweek
Glenomra wrote: » Sweden only 111 deaths in last 24 hours, a continuation of similar figures of the last few days. Where's this massive spike all the experts told us was coming. Were they wrong again?
Bailee Curved Lobotomy wrote: » One factor in Sweden is that those with foreign backgrounds are disproportionately affected by the new coronavirus. Plenty of the 1/2million or so that came to Sweden in the last 10yrs may have issues intergrating (language, customs etc). The country's Public Health Agency reported that Somali-born residents in Sweden were over-represented among those in need of hospital care for COVID-19, as were people born in Eritrea, Finland, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey and the former Yugoslavia. Stockholm also has 40% of all cases (of the 1st 15 deaths in Stockholm, 6 were people of Somali origin), poor neighbourhoods has x3 fold infection rates and multiples of generations can live in the same apartments, unlike native Swedes. State epidemiologist said "For us the main signal is really that we need to reach those groups better with different kinds of messages to help protect them" Sounds like many do not listen to state news/advice, and may live in a bubble within their own communities. Local authorities have therefore been stepping up information efforts in these areas, distributing material in 26 languages other than Swedish. Flyers are now handed out in various languages: Russian, Finnish, Arabic, Tigrinya, Somali and Persian to name a few. The main recommendation to refrain from visiting elderly relatives would be inconceivable among certain immigrant communities. A distrust of authorities could also play a role, but the authorities' real "blind spot" was that immigrant communities sometimes have their own social networks, power hierarchies and authority figures.https://www.france24.com/en/20200418-coronavirus-spotlights-swedish-segregation
MadYaker wrote: » Only? Thats shocking in any context. Our population is half of theirs and we've had 435 deaths total, they just reported 111 in 24 hours and you think thats ok?
RugbyLad11 wrote: » And we had 44 deaths yesterday which is almost half of their 111 deaths in 24 hours
Akrasia wrote: » The countries eho are following the expert advice of Testing Testing Testing, handwashing and social distancing are seeing the curve flatten earlier and with fewer deaths. Those who resist this advice see spikes in deaths and end up implementing the lockdowns anyway usually more extreme versions of the lockdown after much higher human cost has already been paid
Joe_ Public wrote: » In relation to testing South Korea is often referred to in glowing terms, so it's interesting that in a chart of 20 countries i saw listed earlier in terms of volume of testing, Korea was only listed as 17th. So seems to suggest there were other factors involved or it came down not necessarily to volume but to efficiency and contact tracing. Maybe a bit of good old-fashioned luck involved too.
wakka12 wrote: » Yes, SK was just top of the world in testing at the time of it's major outbreak,which is months ago now. Once that was suppressed, there was not much need fo such high levels of testing after, many countries have much higher numbers of tests per capita now including Ireland, but for many countries the testing came too little too late at least compared to how SK handled it
IAMAMORON wrote: » I thinks testing is only useful if it is widespread and efficient. For example, hypothetically I could easily have been tested 4 weeks ago and then contracted the virus on the bus home from the test centre. In the meantime I get a test result saying I am negative. The testing mantra only works if it is applied robustly and is then followed up by contact tracing. It does not look like either has happened in Ireland yet, initial testing has raised eyebrows nationally. We are only doing so well because of the lockdown and of course handwashing. Test results don't stop the spread of the virus, they merely inform medics that you have the virus or don't at a specific time. Too many countries appear to be high fiving and back slapping themselves over their testing, I am not sure how beneficial it is as yet. As a sufferer you will know all about it if you cannot breath and are in an Ambulance, testing positive at that point will be the last of your worries.
