IAMAMORON wrote: » I think South Korea have handled the outbreak a little bit too cosily. Anyone endorsing mass testing keep saying S Korea etc. Given the way this virus rifled through Italy and Spain I am having my doubts about some Asian countries and their figures. As a caveat to my misgivings it is worth noting that maybe Asia have better contingencies set up to deal with such outbreaks? They were previously badly exposed to Swine Flu and Sars 1 so they may have a more robust reaction to outbreaks. Either way you look at this the truth or middle ground is where you will find it. I just think S Korea looks to good to be true, all things considered. I mean look at Japan ? They seem to have chewed it up and spat it back out again, have they? When you incorporate their enthusiasm to make sure the Olympics went ahead as scheduled you would need to revisit any results coming from there. I would not be surprised if they have been covering it up either.
Cyrus wrote: » Does it ? And how would you expect one to be more definitive when make a forward looking prediction ?
[Deleted User] wrote: » Emergency workers in New York described their peak as a daily 911 in terms of what they were dealing with. So definitely not an ordinary amount of deaths.
sydthebeat wrote: » "Probably".... When I see this is a statement it makes what comes afterwards worthless
biko wrote: » I wonder at what numbers the Swedish government will think "fcuk, we totally murdered all those people".
Joe_ Public wrote: » In relation to testing South Korea is often referred to in glowing terms, so it's interesting that in a chart of 20 countries i saw listed earlier in terms of volume of testing, Korea was only listed as 17th. So seems to suggest there were other factors involved or it came down not necessarily to volume but to efficiency and contact tracing. Maybe a bit of good old-fashioned luck involved too.
IAMAMORON wrote: » I thinks testing is only useful if it is widespread and efficient. For example, hypothetically I could easily have been tested 4 weeks ago and then contracted the virus on the bus home from the test centre. In the meantime I get a test result saying I am negative. The testing mantra only works if it is applied robustly and is then followed up by contact tracing. It does not look like either has happened in Ireland yet, initial testing has raised eyebrows nationally. We are only doing so well because of the lockdown and of course handwashing. Test results don't stop the spread of the virus, they merely inform medics that you have the virus or don't at a specific time. Too many countries appear to be high fiving and back slapping themselves over their testing, I am not sure how beneficial it is as yet. As a sufferer you will know all about it if you cannot breath and are in an Ambulance, testing positive at that point will be the last of your worries.
wakka12 wrote: » Yes, SK was just top of the world in testing at the time of it's major outbreak,which is months ago now. Once that was suppressed, there was not much need fo such high levels of testing after, many countries have much higher numbers of tests per capita now including Ireland, but for many countries the testing came too little too late at least compared to how SK handled it
IAMAMORON wrote: » I think any argument at this early stage is kind of pointless, there is still not enough information available. This gets compounded by untoward bias getting posted online. Every know-it-all seems to be handpicking facts from the web and dumping them to facilitate their own arguments about how this is going to pan out. All we can tell for certain is that if you hide under your bed and don't leave the room you will not contract the virus. But you can't do anything else either. Personally I think countries with less extreme measures will have larger herd immunity by now which will expedite their journey back to normality. Countries who have locked down sooner don't have this luxury. Obviously the downside of this is a larger death rate, for now. There is no perfect solution at this point. Talk to a paramedic in Bergamo and you will most likely get a different opinion to one working in Sydney. This phucker has killed and mutated and killed again and we simply don't know what can happen. But now is not the time for I told you so, it is too early to tell.
Akrasia wrote: » The countries eho are following the expert advice of Testing Testing Testing, handwashing and social distancing are seeing the curve flatten earlier and with fewer deaths. Those who resist this advice see spikes in deaths and end up implementing the lockdowns anyway usually more extreme versions of the lockdown after much higher human cost has already been paid
RugbyLad11 wrote: » And we had 44 deaths yesterday which is almost half of their 111 deaths in 24 hours
MadYaker wrote: » Only? Thats shocking in any context. Our population is half of theirs and we've had 435 deaths total, they just reported 111 in 24 hours and you think thats ok?
Bailee Curved Lobotomy wrote: » One factor in Sweden is that those with foreign backgrounds are disproportionately affected by the new coronavirus. Plenty of the 1/2million or so that came to Sweden in the last 10yrs may have issues intergrating (language, customs etc). The country's Public Health Agency reported that Somali-born residents in Sweden were over-represented among those in need of hospital care for COVID-19, as were people born in Eritrea, Finland, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey and the former Yugoslavia. Stockholm also has 40% of all cases (of the 1st 15 deaths in Stockholm, 6 were people of Somali origin), poor neighbourhoods has x3 fold infection rates and multiples of generations can live in the same apartments, unlike native Swedes. State epidemiologist said "For us the main signal is really that we need to reach those groups better with different kinds of messages to help protect them" Sounds like many do not listen to state news/advice, and may live in a bubble within their own communities. Local authorities have therefore been stepping up information efforts in these areas, distributing material in 26 languages other than Swedish. Flyers are now handed out in various languages: Russian, Finnish, Arabic, Tigrinya, Somali and Persian to name a few. The main recommendation to refrain from visiting elderly relatives would be inconceivable among certain immigrant communities. A distrust of authorities could also play a role, but the authorities' real "blind spot" was that immigrant communities sometimes have their own social networks, power hierarchies and authority figures.https://www.france24.com/en/20200418-coronavirus-spotlights-swedish-segregation
Glenomra wrote: » Sweden only 111 deaths in last 24 hours, a continuation of similar figures of the last few days. Where's this massive spike all the experts told us was coming. Were they wrong again?
Multipass wrote: » Yes but that curve will plunge just as steeply the other side, meaning it’s over with quicker. Whereas our curves will stretch out for longer. As long as ICUs don’t get overwhelmed who’s to say that pulling the plaster off quickly isn’t a valid strategy?
sydthebeat wrote: » Swedens numbers today are worrying. Completely going against the trend of low weekend numbers due to processing. Either they have changed their administration processes, or we are in for some seriously worrying figures come midweek
IAMAMORON wrote: » It is true for the entire world Biko. We have no clue how this is going to pan out.
Akrasia wrote: » It is perfectly reasonable to compare countries with similar population demographics, health systems, geographical features and cultures The differences in infection and death rates between similar closely connected countries can be more readily attributable to political choices than by just comparing them to the worst hit countries
sydthebeat wrote: » 60% of deaths occurred in hospitals, which means 40% occurred in community. ICUs numbers are included in hospital numbers, they are not separate. you have no evidence to support that CCI assessment was carried out on all the 40% that died in community
biko wrote: » Is that also true for China, Italy, USA? Or just Sweden?
Kermit.de.frog wrote: » If this is success i'd hate to see what failure looks like
