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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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Blueshoe

Downlinz wrote: »

The vast majority of IT workers could work from home permanently with no negative impact whatsoever but too many in higher management are set in their ways to allow that.
Maybe they'll have gained appreciation for it through this crisis but I wouldn't guarantee it, I still think government should insist any business capable of working from home should continue doing so until we have a vaccine.

For sure. If the work can be done then why not?

Just on the news that the Japanese health ministry have said their system is on the brink of collapse.
One patient rushed to hospital in need of urgent care was turned away by 18 medical facilities.

growleaves

Speculation about ultra-deadly second waves because an influenza pandemic had a second wave a hundred years ago aren't even predictions or projections, they're just daydreams.

polesheep

Ace2007 wrote: »

We've had 3 healthcare workers die to date, you cannot guarantee that those affected will go back to work shortly.

And they could catch the virus again - and what then?

Rail, rail, rail. Restrictions will soon be eased. Stay cosy under your stairs and we'll get word to you when we have a vaccine.

_Kaiser_

lord quackinton wrote: »

So they move their work to your home
Then they move their work from your home to India

You don’t believe this of course
I am an accountant - trust me it’s already been costed

Of course it has. I've been in companies where functions and entire departments have been moved almost overnight.

But senior management generally stay put and when you're supporting multiple countries, where someone sits isn't that important.

I'm not overly concerned and if it happens there will be nothing I could do regardless of being in an office or not so I'll get something else

martingriff

Downlinz wrote: »

The vast majority of IT workers could work from home permanently with no negative impact whatsoever but too many in higher management are set in their ways to allow that.
Maybe they'll have gained appreciation for it through this crisis but I wouldn't guarantee it, I still think government should insist any business capable of working from home should continue doing so until we have a vaccine.

I say you last line is correct and a I hope a given. We have had Harris say that social distancing rule would not go until then

[Deleted User]

polesheep wrote: »

A third of cases from the health service is not the same as a third of the health service.....

What part of the following makes you think I don't know that?

Something like a third of cases are healthcare workers, that's reason enough why we need continued vigilance and the primary focus being on controlling the spread..... An economy won't function for long without a staffed healthservice...... I don't know what proportion of health workers have contracted the virus but it's likely to be a significant enough proportion.

Ace2007

growleaves wrote: »

Millions of deaths were predicted in the original models by Dr. Fauci and Imperial College London.

The extremely drastic 'lockdown' measures were based on those predictions, which haven't materialised and which everyone now admits won't materialise including the creators of those original models.

But you want extreme measures anyway on another worst-case-scenario prediction, this time of hundreds of thousands of deaths.

This is in spite of there being no way of knowing exactly what effect the lockdown has, therefore no way of knowing how it ties into your prediction.

People die. In 2016, 5.1 million EU citizens died of one cause or another. That doesn't excite a huge reaction ut it does require mass graves.

When we see the overall mortality rates for 2020, its unlikely they'll differ in kind from 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016 etc. Possibly a slight uptick for 2020 - but I very much doubt it.

Meanwhile actual life is suspended with no definite plans to allow it get going again.

So cut the BS are you happy if 10,000 Irish people die in the next year from the virus, if it means we can open up the economy? Would you be OK with 25,000? At what number would you think actually no wait? UK have 15k+ since start of April?

I'm not asking for Tony's opinion, or the government, i'm asking you as you are the one of here posting -

[Deleted User]

lord quackinton wrote: »

So they move their work to your home
Then they move their work from your home to India

You don’t believe this of course
I am an accountant - trust me it’s already been costed

I'm expecting 50:50 in the office when restrictions start to get lifted. I'm a software engineer, it's good to see people but I'm as effective working from home. Outsourcing all software development to India has been tried by companies I've worked in, in past and it cost them more in long run.

Most multinationals who have significant software departments tend to have engineering departments in multiple continents. It tends to be beneficial. The main hubs for their most major development tended to jump between the US and European offices.

But you're an accountant... So you know best!

martingriff

SusanC10 wrote: »

Does anyone see Schools (Primary or Secondary) opening before September?

They have practically have said(government) bar the leaving cert no. I would agree with that

Ace2007

polesheep wrote: »

Rail, rail, rail. Restrictions will soon be eased. Stay cosy under your stairs and we'll get word to you when we have a vaccine.

If you have read my posts you'll see i'm all for restrictions being lifted for all,

But you probably can't actually read, instead choose to read what you want to - bit like quack.

What do you think is going to change come may 5th - just so i can quote you when you are wrong, because your overestimate what's going to happen.

Ace2007

polesheep wrote: »

Rail, rail, rail. Restrictions will soon be eased. Stay cosy under your stairs and we'll get word to you when we have a vaccine.

Also you give off the impression that you don't care if healthcare workers get reinfected or if they die, as long as you get out to play..

WhiteMemento9

growleaves wrote: »

Speculation about ultra-deadly second waves because an influenza pandemic had a second wave a hundred years ago aren't even predictions or projections, they're just daydreams.

There is no second wave because the first one never ended? Do you not understand that once the numbers drop and you have it undercontrol that the virus hasn't magically dissappeared? If you return to normal life like before the same thing happens all over again.

Count Dooku

Downlinz wrote: »

The vast majority of IT workers could work from home permanently with no negative impact whatsoever but too many in higher management are set in their ways to allow that.
Maybe they'll have gained appreciation for it through this crisis but I wouldn't guarantee it, I still think government should insist any business capable of working from home should continue doing so until we have a vaccine.

If IT companies will manage to move the most of their workers to work from home, then nothing will stop them to replace those workers and hire workers from abroad to do the same job remotely

khalessi

growleaves wrote: »

Speculation about ultra-deadly second waves because an influenza pandemic had a second wave a hundred years ago aren't even predictions or projections, they're just daydreams.

Why would you assume day dreams? It is called modelling and is what a lot of medical people do to chart the possible direction of a disease, by looking at what happened previously, what they did right and wrong and how we can learn from that.

It is because of such, that NPHET will take a cautious approach to avoid a second wave. Back then everything returned to normal almost immediately as everyone assumed, oh we are through it, done, sorted, back to the good times. But then the second wave unleashed itself.

We already have done a good job, and have got the R0 below 1, so the next stage is to slowly reopen and to keep the R0 below 1.

I like everyone else am cautious but I would like to be able to hug my parents again without worrying, I could infect them. I would like my kids to see their friends that they miss so much. I would love to be able to just have a simple family gathering of my parents, partner, siblings, grandchildren all in the one house and I would so love to sit in a cinema, outdoor will do too or a drive in, but I do realise that little steps.

Ace2007

Count Dooku wrote: »

If IT companies will manage to move the most of their workers to work from home, then nothing will stop them to replace those workers and hire workers from abroad to do the same job remotely

That's been done in most industries already.... nothing new.

Cork Boy 53

martingriff wrote: »

They have practically have said(government) bar the leaving cert no. I would agree with that

If the leaving cert groups return to school in the next few weeks they will only be allowed to do so with strict distancing measures in place. Whether those rules would be complied with or not is another thing. I would have my doubts.

In any case all other school groups will not return before the autumn at the earliest.

martingriff

Count Dooku wrote: »

If IT companies will manage to move the most of their workers to work from home, then nothing will stop them to replace those workers and hire workers from abroad to do the same job remotely

That is happening anyway Lord Dooku or have you missed companies moving to cheaper countries. That would happen regardless if your bum is in an office on at your house

growleaves

So cut the BS are you happy if 10,000 Irish people die in the next year from the virus

I've posted on the megathread and all over this forum stating what I think.

I don't believe the lockdown has any particular efficacy (there's no proof), and that it can or will prevent 10,000 deaths or 25,000 deaths.

You don't seem to realise that the people who made these predictions have already quietly revised them downwards by many multiples.

What will happen is that the lockdown won't be lifted, a huge amount of people won't die and the lockdown will be lauded as the reason they didn't thus establishing it as a political precedent (which it certainly wasn't before now).

Every country that didn't lock down was supposed to Lombardy on steroids. Now that we see that e.g. Sweden isn't that bad, there are all kinds of excuses and conditions such as that it should only be compared to other Nordic countries (why?) yet it is in the European average.

This and other excuses will accepted by people such as yourself who have an emotional investment in the lockdown.

martingriff

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

If the leaving cert groups return to school in the next few weeks they will only be allowed to do so with strict distancing measures in place. Whether those rules would be complied with or not is another thing. I would have my doubts.

In any case all other school groups will not return before the autumn at the earliest.

I agree and that is why others will not to come back to leave as much space as possible for distancing. Stop students mixing well that's the hard part

Professor Moriarty

growleaves wrote: »

I've posted on the megathread and all over this forum stating what I think.

I don't believe the lockdown has any particular efficacy (there's no proof), and that it can or will prevent 10,000 deaths or 25,000 deaths.

You don't seem to realise that the people who made these predictions have already quietly revised them downwards by many multiples.

What will happen is that the lockdown won't be lifted, a huge amount of people won't die and the lockdown will be lauded as the reason they didn't thus establishing it as a political precedent (which it certainly wasn't before now).

Every country that didn't lock down was supposed to Lombardy on steroids. Now that we see that e.g. Sweden isn't that bad, there are all kinds of excuses and conditions such as that it should only be compared to other Nordic countries (why?) yet it is in the European average.

This and other excuses will accepted by people such as yourself who have an emotional investment in the lockdown.

OMFG.

WhiteMemento9

growleaves wrote: »

I don't believe the lockdown has any particular efficacy (there's no proof), and that it can or will prevent 10,000 deaths or 25,000 deaths.

I was getting engry at your posts until I read this line. At least I can just stop reading now.

stephenjmcd

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

This article suggests otherwise.

http://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/coronavirus/building-sites-to-reopen-but-pubs-may-stay-shut-until-2021/ar-BB12Piap?li=BBr5KbJ

As good as it is to see some sort of plan being made and we're being told by the CMO etc that there is, I'd question the use if extra.ie as a good source. Generally made up of clickbait.

Whatever plan around the relaxation of restrictions will come with warnings and based off public health advice, whatever will be will be.

JP100

martingriff wrote: »

They have practically have said(government) bar the leaving cert no. I would agree with that

I think they has been a softtening in that position. As a parent it's very challenging having children home all of the time but I think it would be madness letting kids back before September. To send them back when we are getting close to the summer holidays in any case is really high risk. Think when the school's do go back, people will become lax again in their attitudes to this virus, so rushing the return of schools is very high risk.

WhiteMemento9

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

OMFG.

You forget the level of idiocy that is out there.

polesheep

Ace2007 wrote: »

If you have read my posts you'll see i'm all for restrictions being lifted for all,

But you probably can't actually read, instead choose to read what you want to - bit like quack.

What do you think is going to change come may 5th - just so i can quote you when you are wrong, because your overestimate what's going to happen.

How could I have overestimated when I made no estimation. I have stated that restrictions will be eased. I'm not interested in guessing.

I know very well your position regarding lifting restrictions for all, but that won't happen. The vulnerable cannot and won't have the same freedoms as everyone else until we get a vaccine, which will hopefully come soon.

lastusername

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Absolutely no way will this happen so soon. The people in those categories will be the last to have the restrictions eased.

Not so. Anyone with an existing condition, sure. But there are plenty of fit and healthy people over 70 who can easily be out and about. I see quite a few out and about anyway.

growleaves

There is no second wave because the first one never ended? Do you not understand that once the numbers drop and you have it undercontrol that the virus hasn't magically dissappeared?

I'm aware of that thank you.

Why would you assume day dreams? It is called modelling

I would love to know what reputable modeller/medical researcher would take the deadliest second wave of a pandemic in human history as normative. Or assume it has any particular relevance to a different epidemic one hundred years later.

lainey_d_123

Augeo wrote: »

Cynical horsesh1t for mongs.

Typical comment from you, illustrating what you're like as a person, for those who don't already know.

It's actually extremely accurate. The guidance over here is absolutely woeful and the 'experts' contradict themselves constantly. There's nothing 'cynical' about that post. One minute we're told not to leave the house unless it's absolutely essential, the next we're told to get outside for some fresh air. One minute we're told it's fine to sit down on a park bench if you're disabled or need a rest, the next all the park benches are taped up so they can't be used. We're encouraged to support local businesses, especially takeaways, then told that the virus can be transmitted through ordering food. We shouldn't go to the doctor unless we're at death's door, but make sure you don't put off going to the doctor if you think something might be wrong.

The advice here is absolutely all over the place.

Cork Boy 53

Ace2007 wrote: »

Also you give off the impression that you don't care if healthcare workers get reinfected or if they die, as long as you get out to play..

And no doubt would be one of the first to complain if he/she were to fall seriously ill and didn`t get proper medical treatment due to the health services being overwhelmed.

reg114

The situation with so many deaths in nursing homes indeed mirrors what is happening in other countries but proves only one thing, all governments failed to protect frail nursing home residents. The Irish gov had weeks to prepare ahead of the virus taking hold in Ireland, it didnt prepare. Harris was requested to meet the Nursing Home authorities who could see a tsunami of cases and deaths coming their way, They made repeated requests to meet Harris in March but to no avail. Indeed Harris stated publically that a lockdown in nursing homes was not necessary.. There will be inquests and you are guaranteed that the state will end up having to compensate families for loss of loved ones in nursing homes, very akin to the cervical Scandal. The common denominator? ... Holohan .