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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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khalessi

growleaves wrote: »

Speculation about ultra-deadly second waves because an influenza pandemic had a second wave a hundred years ago aren't even predictions or projections, they're just daydreams.

Why would you assume day dreams? It is called modelling and is what a lot of medical people do to chart the possible direction of a disease, by looking at what happened previously, what they did right and wrong and how we can learn from that.

It is because of such, that NPHET will take a cautious approach to avoid a second wave. Back then everything returned to normal almost immediately as everyone assumed, oh we are through it, done, sorted, back to the good times. But then the second wave unleashed itself.

We already have done a good job, and have got the R0 below 1, so the next stage is to slowly reopen and to keep the R0 below 1.

I like everyone else am cautious but I would like to be able to hug my parents again without worrying, I could infect them. I would like my kids to see their friends that they miss so much. I would love to be able to just have a simple family gathering of my parents, partner, siblings, grandchildren all in the one house and I would so love to sit in a cinema, outdoor will do too or a drive in, but I do realise that little steps.

Ace2007

Count Dooku wrote: »

If IT companies will manage to move the most of their workers to work from home, then nothing will stop them to replace those workers and hire workers from abroad to do the same job remotely

That's been done in most industries already.... nothing new.

Count Dooku

Downlinz wrote: »

The vast majority of IT workers could work from home permanently with no negative impact whatsoever but too many in higher management are set in their ways to allow that.
Maybe they'll have gained appreciation for it through this crisis but I wouldn't guarantee it, I still think government should insist any business capable of working from home should continue doing so until we have a vaccine.

If IT companies will manage to move the most of their workers to work from home, then nothing will stop them to replace those workers and hire workers from abroad to do the same job remotely

WhiteMemento9

growleaves wrote: »

Speculation about ultra-deadly second waves because an influenza pandemic had a second wave a hundred years ago aren't even predictions or projections, they're just daydreams.

There is no second wave because the first one never ended? Do you not understand that once the numbers drop and you have it undercontrol that the virus hasn't magically dissappeared? If you return to normal life like before the same thing happens all over again.

Ace2007

polesheep wrote: »

Rail, rail, rail. Restrictions will soon be eased. Stay cosy under your stairs and we'll get word to you when we have a vaccine.

Also you give off the impression that you don't care if healthcare workers get reinfected or if they die, as long as you get out to play..

Ace2007

polesheep wrote: »

Rail, rail, rail. Restrictions will soon be eased. Stay cosy under your stairs and we'll get word to you when we have a vaccine.

If you have read my posts you'll see i'm all for restrictions being lifted for all,

But you probably can't actually read, instead choose to read what you want to - bit like quack.

What do you think is going to change come may 5th - just so i can quote you when you are wrong, because your overestimate what's going to happen.

martingriff

SusanC10 wrote: »

Does anyone see Schools (Primary or Secondary) opening before September?

They have practically have said(government) bar the leaving cert no. I would agree with that

[Deleted User]

lord quackinton wrote: »

So they move their work to your home
Then they move their work from your home to India

You don’t believe this of course
I am an accountant - trust me it’s already been costed

I'm expecting 50:50 in the office when restrictions start to get lifted. I'm a software engineer, it's good to see people but I'm as effective working from home. Outsourcing all software development to India has been tried by companies I've worked in, in past and it cost them more in long run.

Most multinationals who have significant software departments tend to have engineering departments in multiple continents. It tends to be beneficial. The main hubs for their most major development tended to jump between the US and European offices.

But you're an accountant... So you know best!

Ace2007

growleaves wrote: »

Millions of deaths were predicted in the original models by Dr. Fauci and Imperial College London.

The extremely drastic 'lockdown' measures were based on those predictions, which haven't materialised and which everyone now admits won't materialise including the creators of those original models.

But you want extreme measures anyway on another worst-case-scenario prediction, this time of hundreds of thousands of deaths.

This is in spite of there being no way of knowing exactly what effect the lockdown has, therefore no way of knowing how it ties into your prediction.

People die. In 2016, 5.1 million EU citizens died of one cause or another. That doesn't excite a huge reaction ut it does require mass graves.

When we see the overall mortality rates for 2020, its unlikely they'll differ in kind from 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016 etc. Possibly a slight uptick for 2020 - but I very much doubt it.

Meanwhile actual life is suspended with no definite plans to allow it get going again.

So cut the BS are you happy if 10,000 Irish people die in the next year from the virus, if it means we can open up the economy? Would you be OK with 25,000? At what number would you think actually no wait? UK have 15k+ since start of April?

I'm not asking for Tony's opinion, or the government, i'm asking you as you are the one of here posting -

[Deleted User]

polesheep wrote: »

A third of cases from the health service is not the same as a third of the health service.....

What part of the following makes you think I don't know that?

Something like a third of cases are healthcare workers, that's reason enough why we need continued vigilance and the primary focus being on controlling the spread..... An economy won't function for long without a staffed healthservice...... I don't know what proportion of health workers have contracted the virus but it's likely to be a significant enough proportion.

martingriff

Downlinz wrote: »

The vast majority of IT workers could work from home permanently with no negative impact whatsoever but too many in higher management are set in their ways to allow that.
Maybe they'll have gained appreciation for it through this crisis but I wouldn't guarantee it, I still think government should insist any business capable of working from home should continue doing so until we have a vaccine.

I say you last line is correct and a I hope a given. We have had Harris say that social distancing rule would not go until then

_Kaiser_

lord quackinton wrote: »

So they move their work to your home
Then they move their work from your home to India

You don’t believe this of course
I am an accountant - trust me it’s already been costed

Of course it has. I've been in companies where functions and entire departments have been moved almost overnight.

But senior management generally stay put and when you're supporting multiple countries, where someone sits isn't that important.

I'm not overly concerned and if it happens there will be nothing I could do regardless of being in an office or not so I'll get something else

polesheep

Ace2007 wrote: »

We've had 3 healthcare workers die to date, you cannot guarantee that those affected will go back to work shortly.

And they could catch the virus again - and what then?

Rail, rail, rail. Restrictions will soon be eased. Stay cosy under your stairs and we'll get word to you when we have a vaccine.

growleaves

Speculation about ultra-deadly second waves because an influenza pandemic had a second wave a hundred years ago aren't even predictions or projections, they're just daydreams.

Blueshoe

Downlinz wrote: »

The vast majority of IT workers could work from home permanently with no negative impact whatsoever but too many in higher management are set in their ways to allow that.
Maybe they'll have gained appreciation for it through this crisis but I wouldn't guarantee it, I still think government should insist any business capable of working from home should continue doing so until we have a vaccine.

For sure. If the work can be done then why not?

Just on the news that the Japanese health ministry have said their system is on the brink of collapse.
One patient rushed to hospital in need of urgent care was turned away by 18 medical facilities.

growleaves

If people weren't losing their lives, like if the only cost was economic i would be all up for following your advice and others, but the problem is if your wrong, and we have a huge spike in numbers - hundreds if not thousands of innocent people will die - FACT we see it all over Europe. Or do you not see what is happening in Italy and Spain and the UK and the US?

Millions of deaths were predicted in the original models by Dr. Fauci and Imperial College London.

The extremely drastic 'lockdown' measures were based on those predictions, which haven't materialised and which everyone now admits won't materialise - including the creators of those original models.

But you want extreme measures anyway based on another worst-case-scenario prediction, this time of hundreds of thousands of deaths.

This is in spite of there being no way of knowing exactly what effect the lockdown has, therefore no way of knowing how it ties into your prediction.

People die. In 2016, 5.1 million EU citizens died of one cause or another. That didn't excite a huge reaction but it did require mass graves.

When we see the overall mortality rates for 2020, its unlikely they'll differ in kind from 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016 etc. Possibly a slight uptick for 2020 - but I very much doubt it.

Meanwhile actual life is suspended with no definite plans to allow it get going again.

Ace2007

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

You have obviously picked out the one sentence in the article that suits your viewpoint and chosen to ignore the main body of what was written.

Isn't that what most posters on here do?

Like you have posters saying that Tony says we are passed the peak, and therefore we should re-open everything, ignoring the fact that Tony also said he can't be sure if Schools can reopen in September.... and we have to gradual reopen the economy.

I wouldn't be surprised if Lord Quack was involved in the audit of the FAI - only sees what he wants to...

SusanC10

Does anyone see Schools (Primary or Secondary) opening before September?

pjohnson

Ace2007 wrote: »

If people weren't losing their lives, like if the only cost was economic i would be all up for following your advice and others, but the problem is if your wrong, and we have a huge spike in numbers - hundreds if not thousands of innocent people will die - FACT we see it all over Europe. Or do you not see what is happening in Italy and Spain and the UK and the US?

If your right - then why are innocent people dying in those countries i listed above?

If a relative of yours died from the virus through no fault of their own, would you be like, well they were old, well this or that, no - you would probably look to blame someone, and yourself and "Lord quack" would be the first to blame the government and the HSE.

I wouldnt hold my breath on that. They would probably just be wrote of as brave martyrs who sacrificed themselves for the glorious new prosperous Irish Economy.

Downlinz

robbiezero wrote: »

Id imagine the vast majorith of IT workers and some other sectors could continue working from home to some extent which would ease the pressure fairly significantly.

The vast majority of IT workers could work from home permanently with no negative impact whatsoever but too many in higher management are set in their ways to allow that.
Maybe they'll have gained appreciation for it through this crisis but I wouldn't guarantee it, I still think government should insist any business capable of working from home should continue doing so until we have a vaccine.

Ace2007

lord quackinton wrote: »

I am an accountant who specialises in tax
Come back to me when the next budget is being announced
Then we will see who is being delusional

It's true what they say, anyone can qualify as an accountant these days...

Cork Boy 53

easypazz wrote: »

You obviously missed the below paragraph

Some pubs will open for a few hours in the evening, with only those with outdoor seating areas allowed to open in the first wave of reopenings.

You have obviously picked out the one sentence in the article that suits your viewpoint and chosen to ignore the main body of what was written.

lord quackinton

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Your posts are getting more delusional every time I read them. I hope you have a large stock of tinfoil hats.

I am an accountant who specialises in tax
Come back to me when the next budget is being announced
Then we will see who is being delusional

Ace2007

polesheep wrote: »

A third of cases from the health service is not the same as a third of the health service. Plus, those healthcare workers currently affected will be back at work shortly. Everything is under control and a gradual easing of restrictions is on the way.

We've had 3 healthcare workers die to date, you cannot guarantee that those affected will go back to work shortly.

And they could catch the virus again - and what then?

Quantum Erasure

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Your posts are getting more delusional every time I read them. I hope you have a large stock of tinfoil hats.

I'm picturing something like The Shining..,

Ace2007

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

He is actually right on this, huge global reaction to this, we all need to move on.

If people weren't losing their lives, like if the only cost was economic i would be all up for following your advice and others, but the problem is if your wrong, and we have a huge spike in numbers - hundreds if not thousands of innocent people will die - FACT we see it all over Europe. Or do you not see what is happening in Italy and Spain and the UK and the US?

If your right - then why are innocent people dying in those countries i listed above?

If a relative of yours died from the virus through no fault of their own, would you be like, well they were old, well this or that, no - you would probably look to blame someone, and yourself and "Lord quack" would be the first to blame the government and the HSE.

polesheep

Augeo wrote: »

It was initially feared we could see 15,000 cases by end of March..... We've just gotten to that now.
Easing of restrictions will happen.... But it will be an easing. Loads of stuff won't he going on as normal in summer 2020 unfortunately.

A week or two of a significant proportion of the population not adhereing to guidelines when some restrictions are eased will likely see the health system beyond capacity.

Something like a third of cases are healthcare workers, that's reason enough why we need continued vigilance and the primary focus being on controlling the spread..... An economy won't function for long without a staffed healthservice...... I don't know what proportion of health workers have contracted the virus but it's likely to be a significant enough proportion. As that number rises and they are back at work the healthservvice itself is less vulnerable.

Some easing of restrictions can have huge positive effects on the economy coupled with a reduced transmit rate it's a good starting point for May 05th.

I've mentioned it before, essential workplaces are implementing controls successfully, there's plenty non essential ones that can also, but it will require planning, effort and buy in from staff & customers.

A third of cases from the health service is not the same as a third of the health service. Plus, those healthcare workers currently affected will be back at work shortly. Everything is under control and a gradual easing of restrictions is on the way.

Professor Moriarty

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Your posts are getting more delusional every time I read them. I hope you have a large stock of tinfoil hats.

Tinfoil hats protect you from 5G masts which means you can't get Covid-19. I wear one 24/7.

lord quackinton

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Yep and I'd be one of them I could realistically work from home indefinitely given my role.

So they move their work to your home
Then they move their work from your home to India

You don’t believe this of course
I am an accountant - trust me it’s already been costed

Cork Boy 53

lord quackinton wrote: »

There was
The government and the HSE continually stated
the peak was not here
Could be end of April
No distinction between historical and previous days
They knew the peak was gone but lied so people would not question this lockdown bull****

Game over, the lockdown is pointless
We are now ruining our economy and society for past events

Time to let the adults take charge now
Back to work and back to school Monday should be the rally call
I am sick of the public sector cabals running this country

To normal people on here I beg please email your local TDS and councillors
We need to stop this bull **** now

Your posts are getting more delusional every time I read them. I hope you have a large stock of tinfoil hats.