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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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pjohnson

alwald wrote: »

So Child A passes the virus to child B who, being asymptomatic, passed the virus to his parents out of which one is working. The working parent spread the virus prior to any symptoms to 3 work colleagues who in turn, being symptomatic or not spread the virus to their own/family kids and the chain of events continues.

Contact tracing becomes more and more difficult and the R0 rate will increase beyond the desirable level within weeks.

Robin has also not seemed to account for siblings. What if "Child A" has siblings? You could branch this out even more and have multiple Child A's from a single household infecting multiple B's.....robinh has also never mentioned/thought of a school bus which could lead to any Child A potentially causing a hell of a lot of trouble across multiple schools.

robinph

khalessi wrote: »

It is very difficult to explain it to someone who does not understand the bascis so apologies that I cant chase you down your rabbit hole

Explain it to everyone else then if it's so simple and you can pretend that I'm too stupid to understand if it makes you feel better.

khalessi

robinph wrote: »

Explain it to everyone else then if it's so simple and you can pretend that I'm too stupid to understand if it makes you feel better.

Thank you

robinph

pjohnson wrote: »

Robin has also not seemed to account for siblings. What if "Child A" has siblings? You could branch this out even more and have multiple Child A's from a single household infecting multiple B's.....robinh has also never mentioned/thought of a school bus which could lead to any Child A potentially causing a hell of a lot of trouble across multiple schools.

I mentioned siblings in other classes in previous posts.

Put on more busses to keep kids separated on the way to school if needed.. There are plenty of empty buses sitting ariund at the moment as people are not travelling or using public transport.

Come up with solutions rather than problems.

KiKi III

robinph wrote: »

I mentioned siblings in other classes in previous posts.

Put on more busses to keep kids separated on the way to school if needed.. There are plenty of empty buses sitting ariund at the moment as people are not travelling or using public transport.

Come up with solutions rather than problems.

I’m all for solutions rather than problems. It does seem like in this case the most effective solution is to keep kids at home until September at least.

robinph

KiKi III wrote: »

I’m all for solutions rather than problems. It does seem like in this case the most effective solution is to keep kids at home until September at least.

So how then do you solve the problem of parents not being able to go to work?

alwald

robinph wrote: »

So what is the alternative then?

I would give you one if it was simple, obvious or if I was an expert in the field.
I am waiting for the government's road map to see their solutions to all these issues.

robinph

Not claiming that it is going to be easy, but everything in the economy getting going in any meaningful way again relys on schools being opened back up first.

alwald

marizpan wrote: »

I think the poster was referring to recent findings in Iceland that was published in Nature.

The New England Journal of Medicine published a large-scale COVID-19 diagnostic testing effort in Iceland, which found that 43% of positive cases had reported no symptoms at the time of testing. The study also found very low rates of infection in children under 10 years of age.

source: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41591-020-00011-3?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+nm%2Frss%2Fcurrent+%28Nature+Medicine+-+Issue%29

Thank you for your link, quite informative indeed and recent as well:

As of April 4, a total of 1221 of 9199 persons (13.3%) who were recruited for targeted testing had positive results for infection with SARS-CoV-2. Of those tested in the general population, 87 (0.8%) in the open-invitation screening and 13 (0.6%) in the random-population screening tested positive for the virus. In total, 6% of the population was screened. Most persons in the targeted-testing group who received positive tests early in the study had recently traveled internationally, in contrast to those who tested positive later in the study. Children under 10 years of age were less likely to receive a positive result than were persons 10 years of age or older, with percentages of 6.7% and 13.7%, respectively, for targeted testing; in the population screening, no child under 10 years of age had a positive result, as compared with 0.8% of those 10 years of age or older. Fewer females than males received positive results both in targeted testing (11.0% vs. 16.7%) and in population screening (0.6% vs. 0.9%). The haplotypes of the sequenced SARS-CoV-2 viruses were diverse and changed over time. The percentage of infected participants that was determined through population screening remained stable for the 20-day duration of screening.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIseouW2FE8

Just to stop and pause for a second - I found this relly moving.

alwald

robinph wrote: »

Not claiming that it is going to be easy, but everything in the economy getting going in any meaningful way again relys on schools being opened back up first.

It's about finding that balance between opening various sectors of the economy bit by bit while maintaining control over the various.

To date if we take all countries that were hit quite significantly by C-19, the only country that managed it well is China (Wuhan) and it didn't involve opening schools or businesses until they were in control of the virus and its spread.

Learning from other EU countries that started opening schools/businesses will be quite interesting!

pjohnson

robinph wrote: »

I mentioned siblings in other classes in previous posts.

Put on more busses to keep kids separated on the way to school if needed.. There are plenty of empty buses sitting ariund at the moment as people are not travelling or using public transport.

Come up with solutions rather than problems.

But if you want things open then the buses wont be sitting empty as they will be back in use??

They are only sitting empty now because of reduced service.....

Come up with a half decent solution not riddled with problems maybe?

showpony1

if a young child is taken out of school for say 18 months in their formative years will they ever be able to reach full intellectual capabilities?

khalessi

showpony1 wrote: »

if a young child is taken out of school for say 18 months in their formative years will they ever be able to reach full intellectual capabilities?

It depends on what they are doing /reading outside school. How much encouragement they get to be inquisitive and develop their interests.

Speakerboxx

DeVore wrote: »

Keelings published a statement saying all those workers will be self isolating for 14 days.

Do you believe that sh#te?

robinph

pjohnson wrote: »

But if you want things open then the buses wont be sitting empty as they will be back in use??

They are only sitting empty now because of reduced service.....

Come up with a half decent solution not riddled with problems maybe?

True, as far as public transport is concerned. Private hire coaches and tourism coaches are not going to be being used. Or you stagger the school day so that half the school does one set of hours, and the other half later in the day.

Leasure activities will be the last thing to restart so any facilities previously used for that, be it transport or any other services or buildings can be used for other things as needed.

Professor Moriarty

Speakerboxx wrote: »

Do you believe that sh#te?

Have you evidence that they're lying?

robinph

There is nothing other than half decent compromise solutions until a couple of years after a vaccine is available and been administered to enough people world wide. Until then we just have to figure out what can be done, rather than what can't.

timmy_mallet

alwald wrote: »

Those kids being asymptomatic will spread it to those same adults you mention taking public transport and hanging in pubs which will make tracing literally impossible.

Kids have to go to school, their parents dont have to go to the pub.

Cupatae

Cyrus

KiKi III wrote: »

I’m all for solutions rather than problems. It does seem like in this case the most effective solution is to keep kids at home until September at least.

What difference will them going back in September make then, all the arguments raised against kids going back to school will be as valid then as now unless I’m missing something?

Spanish Eyes

Can't understand why some cannot wait until it is safe to slowly open up.

Tenzor07

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Can't understand why some cannot wait until it is safe to slowly open up.

Because there's bills to pay, taxes need to be generated to pay for the health service?

Dr. Bre

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Can't understand why some cannot wait until it is safe to slowly open up.

Ye but what happens if that safe is two three years away.?

robinph

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Can't understand why some cannot wait until it is safe to slowly open up.

Because that is several years away.

18 months if we are lucky before a vaccine is available, then however long to manufacture and administer it to 7 billion people. Don't need to wait until all 7 billion are vaccinated admittedly, but needs a significant proportion of the local population before it will have sufficient effect on us being able to resume life as it was 4 months ago.

alwald

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Kids have to go to school, their parents dont have to go to the pub.

Honestly, what's your endgame here?

timmy_mallet

Cyrus wrote: »

What difference will them going back in September make then, all the arguments raised against kids going back to school will be as valid then as now unless I’m missing something?

Agree, irrelevant when they go back if there are still 700+ cases a day by then

greasepalm

Endgame is a coffin!

timmy_mallet

alwald wrote: »

Honestly, what's your endgame here?

Prioritise.

This virus is coming for the smokers, drinkers, fast food eaters and unfortunately the elderly, the pub is the last place that should be open. How anyone can suggest its equally necessary to kids education is a stain on society.

Tenzor07

Wow post-lockdown Wuhan, no exercise allowed.

Temperature checks everywhere, mobile phone app location tracking.

Companies providing IR temperature devices, if your temperature is out of normal range anywhere you get a red sticker and are directed immediately to n out of town health centre for testing etc.