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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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shocksy

C__MC wrote: »

I wouldn't rule out primary schools doing 5 weeks between now and june

If you believe that you're going to be very disappointed. September at the very earliest is even touch and go.

Spencer Brown

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Common ****ing sense.

Just because you think something is going to be the case doesn't mean it will be. You're taking a stab in the dark just as much as the poster saying they should open in May.

Cyrus

shocksy wrote: »

If you believe that you're going to be very disappointed. September at the very earliest is even touch and go.

It’s not as if schools are reopened anywhere else

Oh wait ....

khalessi

Cyrus wrote: »

It’s not as if schools are reopened anywhere else

Oh wait ....

Opening schools in May would be very very bad idea

Cyrus

khalessi wrote: »

Opening schools in May would be very very bad idea

Why ?

SEPT 23 1989

I need the restrictions lifted to run a business but if we get back going again for a few weeks and then the infection and deaths start ramping up and this causes another lockdown to be ordered

The mental health effect on the people of this country would be devastating

And everything that comes with that

I don't envy the powers that be making this decision

shocksy

Cyrus wrote: »

It’s not as if schools are reopened anywhere else

Oh wait ....

Just because you want it to happen doesn't mean it will work out for you.

Anyone with an ounce of common sense knows that the school year for this year is finished. They're not gonna rush children back into school for a lousy few weeks just because you or anyone else are fed up of your kids being at home.

They were one of the first to be closed and they'll be one of the last to reopen.

It doesn't matter a f*ck what Denmark and the likes are doing. Time will tell how it works out for them. I'd be much happier keeping them closed than gambling with such an idea. The Scandinavian countries are doing their own things, they aren't even showing unity on their decisions so anything they decide to do I'd take with a pinch of salt. Let them gamble for the rest of us.

I'll happily await your "you were right" reply when the schools don't reopen for this term.

BanditLuke

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

I need the restrictions lifted to run a business but if we get back going again for a few weeks and then the infection and deaths start ramping up and this causes another lockdown to be ordered

The mental health effect on the people of this country would be devastating

And everything that comes with that

I don't envy the powers that be making this decision

I'm in the same boat. Iv'e lost my job and a small investment in a business is almost certainly gone but that's life and it's only money. Ive put health before wealth all my life not going to change now.

After all the hard work the majority of us have made thus far doing stuff like opening schools and pubs in May would be insanity and put us back to square one.

seamus

Schools aren't going back till September lads, you can forget it.

The DoE has already told all primary teachers that they need to make themselves available to issue and correct students' work on a day-to-day basis rather than just setting out plans for the week and posting them online.

They wouldn't do this if there was a chance the kids were going back to school.

Balf

lord quackinton wrote: »

There is no proof social distancing actually works

Sweden has little restrictions and there death rate is not that much higher then ours

I think when the official figures are released for Britain and Ireland well over 50% will be nursing home deaths and over 90 % will be people over 70 with serious health complications

Time to open up

In discussions, there's always that uncomfortable circling around the age question. "Its not just old people, you know." Yeah, just mostly old people.

Can't just stop human life. Anyone who thinks you can should read a few history books, whenever the libraries reopen. Like, absolutely any history book. Even a feckin history of County Longford.

We are patient, decent people. But, eventually, we will find it safe to wonder aloud "so, if we seal off the nursing homes and isolate the wrinkles, can the rest of us just go about our business and take our chances?"

If there's no "cure" as such, then we've just got to accept it as a risk. Like, the developed world never really felt safe again after 9/11, but we still got on with it.

khalessi

Cyrus wrote: »

Why ?

Well first of all, listening to Dr Tony Holohan, earlier today he was saying it will be a delicate balance trying to maintain the R0 level between 0.7% -under 1%. He also said that any relaxation of restrictions, it any would have to be done very carefully.

So unleashing nearly 1 million children back into schools would to coin a phrase, caue a serious disturbance in the force.

He did say that even if the R0 rate went up to 1.2% it could cause a serious problem for Ireland in the spreading Covid19 and result in invreased deaths.

Second, It would be wreckless to open the schools as it could unleash a second wave of infection.

I know people go, oh look at the Danes they've reopened, but firstly they have much smaller class sizes then we do and a list of rules that would be difficult to implement here. In footage on tv earlier today it looked like they had a teacher and at most 8 kids in a class. Here that would be one class split into 3 groups of 8 and one group of 6 minimum.

And where would the space be got for this?

In Denmark they are teaching in museums, but in places in Ireland where you have a glut of schools that space is limited and would be gone pretty quickly.

Hygiene, the Danes are suggesting handwashing every 2 hours good luck with a class of 30 junior infants.

Deep cleaning classrooms would have to be done on a daily level and the budget isnt here nor the expertise.

And that is just to start with.

How would you suggest we do it safely?

SEPT 23 1989

Balf wrote: »

We are patient, decent people. But, eventually, we will find it safe to wonder aloud "so, if we seal off the nursing homes and isolate the wrinkles, can the rest of us just go about our business and take our chances?"

And when that happens we abandon all thoughts that we live in a civilised society

Balf

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

And when that happens we abandon the thought that we live in a civilised society

Sure, we're already abandoned society. This isn't sustainable, at any level. Bonkers to talk as if it is.

JoeA3

I don't believe schools and creches will open any time soon either sadly. From a personal point of view I'm sad about that tbh, I feel sorry for my little girl, as she is here on her own with no company of her own age since early March and she misses her friends, her cousins and her old Montessori routine greatly. But kids are tough and hopefully she won't remember any of this in 12 months time!

Of course, her Montessori had to lay off all the staff - the knock on effects of this lockdown are devastating to so many businesses

That said, I watched the news conference earlier, and I don't know about anyone else, but I took a very positive vibe from it. It seemed to be in little doubt to me that restrictions will absolutely be gradually rolled back carefully from May 5th. So I'm afraid the "lockdown forever" brigade on this forum, several of whom I suspect are neckbeard trolls typing from their mother's spare bedroom - will be disappointed.

niallo27

It's been 5 weeks and it feels like months, so much has developed in that time. We wont be in lockdown come july, everybody knows this, either vulnerable cocoon or take a risk on getting it. How hard is it for them to cocoon and watch Netflix, young people went to war before and these people cant even stay at home for a few months.

Jim Gazebo

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Common ****ing sense.

You are one of the most condescending posters constantly popping up here. Fair play to you, I don't know why you don't just take over and run the country.

Some people have lives to be getting on with and are trying to grasp some hope.

fleet_admiral

JoeA3 wrote: »

I don't believe schools and creches will open any time soon either sadly. From a personal point of view I'm sad about that tbh, I feel sorry for my little girl, as she is here on her own with no company of her own age since early March and she misses her friends, her cousins and her old Montessori routine greatly. But kids are tough and hopefully she won't remember any of this in 12 months time!

Of course, her Montessori had to lay off all the staff - the knock on effects of this lockdown are devastating to so many businesses

That said, I watched the news conference earlier, and I don't know about anyone else, but I took a very positive vibe from it. It seemed to be in little doubt to me that restrictions will absolutely be gradually rolled back carefully from May 5th. So I'm afraid the "lockdown forever" brigade on this forum, several of whom I suspect are neckbeard trolls typing from their mother's spare bedroom - will be disappointed.

What class is she in?

My son is in 2nd and does a zoom meeting with most of his class every Friday. Maybe you could set one up

[Deleted User]

JoeA3 wrote: »

I don't believe schools and creches will open any time soon either sadly. From a personal point of view I'm sad about that tbh, I feel sorry for my little girl, as she is here on her own with no company of her own age since early March and she misses her friends, her cousins and her old Montessori routine greatly. But kids are tough and hopefully she won't remember any of this in 12 months time!

Of course, her Montessori had to lay off all the staff - the knock on effects of this lockdown are devastating to so many businesses

That said, I watched the news conference earlier, and I don't know about anyone else, but I took a very positive vibe from it. It seemed to be in little doubt to me that restrictions will absolutely be gradually rolled back carefully from May 5th. So I'm afraid the "lockdown forever" brigade on this forum, several of whom I suspect are neckbeard trolls typing from their mother's spare bedroom - will be disappointed.

I hope you're right about some kind of easing of restrictions. We will all need to learn to live with this for some time in a safe manner but we can't do it locked up in our houses. I too feel sorry for the kids, my younger one especially. We all get how serious the situation is, but people need to lighten up a bit too. And while there are people dying and more will, we have to start taking steps forward.

[Deleted User]

JoeA3 wrote: »

I don't believe schools and creches will open any time soon either sadly............That said, I watched the news conference earlier, and I don't know about anyone else, but I took a very positive vibe from it. It seemed to be in little doubt to me that restrictions will absolutely be gradually rolled back carefully from May 5th. So I'm afraid the "lockdown forever" brigade on this forum, several of whom I suspect are neckbeard trolls typing from their mother's spare bedroom - will be disappointed.

Indeed, the transmission rate dropping to below 1 is really positive. We shall certainly see things eased in early/mid May.

ShineOn7

From the Redit user again who has an abundance of stats and info. I'm going to take a deeper dive into their post history tomorrow.

They've been on Reddit 6 years with over 24,000 upvotes (the equivalent of Boards thanks system). All words below the line are theirs. There's some cautiously optimistic stuff in here. I've highlighted in bold and red the stuff that stood out most to me

Many stats here relate to the effectiveness of the restrictions;

______________________________________________

New Cases: 629 (Germany: 95)
Total Cases: 13271
New Death: 43
Total Deaths: 486 (One death de-notified)
Male: 22
Female: 21
Median Age: 84
Underlying conditions: 27

Of the death

Deaths: 486
Hospitalised + died in hospital: 298 (61%)
Died in ICU: 44
Underlying conditions: 403
Male: 283
Female: 203
Median age: 82
Mean age: 69
Age Range: 23-105

Of 290 in ICU

Remain in ICU: 156
Discharged: 90
Died: 44
Underlying conditions: 238
Median Age: 60

As of Tuesday 14th

Cases: 12425
In Hospital: 2026
In ICU: 284
Deaths: 480
Clusters: 425 - Account for 2451 cases
Median age infected: 48
Healthcare workers: 25%

Clusters

Clusters In Community: 254 - 4 additional from yesterday occurred in nursing homes
Residential Homes: 163
302 deaths in community residential settings
Nursing Homes: 253 deaths in nursing homes

Modelling with Philip Nolan

Models are useful and powerful, but the output depends on the assumptions. We have many assumptions - proportion of people who are asymptomatic, and data used to calibrate the model. German results are being fed back in to help recalculate. They are good for making decisions, but shouldn't read too much into them Because we are constantly re-calibrating based off of the data, the numbers will change every time the model is presented.

Most results back from Germany, and backdated into graphs

Cases were growing at 33% a day (cumulatively) at the beginning. Now, while its not flat, growing very slowly.

Hospitalised cases growing very slowly.

ICU rate of growth is also very slow

Number of people dying increases, but the rate of growth is decreasing. They are watching this number very closely.

As modellers, need to look at all of the data we have, not just confirmed cases. Overall seeing slow growth Percentage growth in total number of cases, against previous day, averaged over 5 days, is about 5% growth rate. Number of new cases per day is noisier.

Since 3rd April, growth rate of new cases with German cases backdated, growth rate is very close to 0.

Number of people reported to be in ICU has been stable since 3rd April. One would imagine that is beginning to decline at this point.

Final indication we have of the growth rate of the virus is the reproduction number. We have 4 ways to calculate this. All 4 showed that R0 = 0.7-1. Needs to be below 1 to show that we are in control of the virus.

We can compare the R0 against a number of different European countries - model knows when we imposed different social distancing measures.

In early stages of epidemic, R0 = 2-4. Immediately after early interventions (28 March), R0 = 1.5-3. High confidence now that R0 < 1

We need to be very careful that if we relax measures, that we don't go back to R0 = 1.5-3

Unmitigated epidemic would have had 120,000 infections by this week (Using R0=3.7)

If we had reduced to R0=2.4, we would have still seen a huge number of cases - approximately 70,000 cases at the peak. Would have approx had 7800 new cases today. Approx 17000 deaths

At the reduced rate, low R0, peak would be 5000 cases, and would see virus pushed out to August

Where are we now? We are hopeful/ confident that our R0 is below one. Model predicts we are in peak now, and will reduce. In reality, things are slightly different. Prudent to take a look at the actual data, rather than rely on the data. We need experience to tell us that measures are working, not just the model telling us that. We need more data.

What might happen if measures are eased around May 5th?

Most optimistic - R0 = 0.8, cases reduce near the end of the month

Relax measures for 3 weeks, and reimpose if needed - THIS IS JUST MODEL, NOT WHAT HE'S SUGGESTING

If more relaxed measures are containing the disease (R0=1.1) we will see a small increase in numbers
R=1.2, still managing. Reintroducing measures will suppress disease
R=1.6 (every second person infects 2 people) would see a significant peak at this point. Reimpose numbers to gain control
R0=>2, we get a very sudden and unmanageable spike on disease. Clearly wouldn't leave relaxed measure in place for 3 weeks and allow that to happen
Whatever happens after May 5th needs to be managed very carefully

Symptoms in elderly may not be the same symptoms in the young - cough or fever may not be present, but lack of appetite is

Ace2007

niallo27 wrote: »

It's been 5 weeks and it feels like months, so much has developed in that time. We wont be in lockdown come july, everybody knows this, either vulnerable cocoon or take a risk on getting it. How hard is it for them to cocoon and watch Netflix, young people went to war before and these people cant even stay at home for a few months.

Some of these people your talking about actually fought in wars, how many "young" people in Ireland do you know that are going to war?

How hard is it or young and healthy people to stay in doors and watch Netflix - pretty damn hard when you see/hear about people out and about all the time.

It's easy to say one cohort of the population should be doing something, but it's ok if another cohort don't.

Nobody knows what situation we'll be in come July - if come July we have 150+ deaths a day, do you honestly think we wouldn't be in another "lock down"?

[Deleted User]

Ace2007 wrote: »

Some of these people your talking about actually fought in wars, how many "young" people in Ireland do you know that are going to war?

How hard is it or young and healthy people to stay in doors and watch Netflix - pretty damn hard when you see/hear about people out and about all the time.

It's easy to say one cohort of the population should be doing something, but it's ok if another cohort don't.

Nobody knows what situation we'll be in come July - if come July we have 150+ deaths a day, do you honestly think we wouldn't be in another "lock down"?

Who are these people alive in Ireland who fought in a war?

Jim Gazebo

The hardest part for me is knowing I'm abiding but seeing others not bothering at all. The more I see it, the more I think ah **** it. Why should I do it.

I think/hope the 2km goes on the 5th. I think the majority are now well trained to keep away from people. I know if the 2km goes I would still see the same amount of people . I wouldn't be increasing my contact. I would just take exercise futher afield and enjoy getting out in fresh air.

niallo27

Ace2007 wrote: »

Some of these people your talking about actually fought in wars, how many "young" people in Ireland do you know that are going to war?

How hard is it or young and healthy people to stay in doors and watch Netflix - pretty damn hard when you see/hear about people out and about all the time.

It's easy to say one cohort of the population should be doing something, but it's ok if another cohort don't.

Nobody knows what situation we'll be in come July - if come July we have 150+ deaths a day, do you honestly think we wouldn't be in another "lock down"?

If they fought in wars then surely sitting in their garden with a glass of wine would be easy for them. If the elderly and vulnerable follow the restrictions then we wont see 150 deaths a day. If they wont follow them, then fines should be issued and possibly jail time.

Ace2007

niallo27 wrote: »

If they fought in wars then surely sitting in their garden with a glass of wine would be easy for them. If the elderly and vulnerable follow the restrictions then we wont see 150 deaths a day. If they wont follow them, then fines should be issued and possibly jail time.

What % of people who need hospital treatment are under 65?

niallo27

Ace2007 wrote: »

What % of people who need hospital treatment are under 65?

You tell me, you obviously know. What percentage of people in icu had no underlying conditions. Of course these people will cocoon, if they dont they are either idiots or want to chance getting it.

Ace2007

niallo27 wrote: »

You tell me, you obviously know. What percentage of people in icu had no underlying conditions. Of course these people will cocoon, if they dont they are either idiots or want to chance getting it.

No idea how many had underlying conditions, but your assuming that they will concoon, but surely if would will, they should be at the moment, and if that's the case who are these people under 65 in hospitals?

niallo27

Ace2007 wrote: »

No idea how many had underlying conditions, but your assuming that they will concoon, but surely if would will, they should be at the moment, and if that's the case who are these people under 65 in hospitals?

The majority have underlying conditions. The ones that dont can easily be absorbed into our hospital system without overwhelming it.

Ace2007

niallo27 wrote: »

The majority have underlying conditions. The ones that dont can easily be absorbed into our hospital system without overwhelming it.

So your assuming that those that required hospital treatment had underlying conditions.

And your also assuming that when restrictions are lifted those with underlying conditions will cocoon, even though they haven't been cocooning for the last few weeks?

JoeA3

fleet_admiral wrote: »

What class is she in?

My son is in 2nd and does a zoom meeting with most of his class every Friday. Maybe you could set one up

She is (was) still in Montessori, due to start “big school” in September so she’s a little young for zoom meetings etc, although fairly clued up on the tech all the same

I’m hopeful that our powers that be are going to be pragmatic about all this. I am sure that they are very aware that despite the necessity of the lockdown in the shorter term, that it does come with enormous negative consequences for so many elements of society and it therefore cannot be sustained.

The indications certainly are that a phased rollback will commence from May and I for one will welcome it.

Tbh I find all the repetitive trite comments such as “how hard can it be to sit on your arse and watch Netflix?” or “your grandparents fought in the war” etc etc absolutely infuriating. You can immediately tell who hasn’t an absolute clue what they’re talking about when they spin one of those lines.