Ace2007 wrote: » So your assuming that those that required hospital treatment had underlying conditions. And your also assuming that when restrictions are lifted those with underlying conditions will cocoon, even though they haven't been cocooning for the last few weeks?
alwald wrote: » The 21% represents the current death rate based on closed cases and not the final death rate which is estimated to be anything between 0.3% to 3%. I hope this is clearer now. I made the link with a genocide not based on the action but rather the number of deaths which can reach 46M worldwide.
thebaz wrote: The death rate more than likely will be well under 1% , not the 20% you were saying.
thebaz wrote: As a vaccine is at least 12 months away , most countrys will probably be forced into a herd immunity appproach, that will somhow protect the vulnerable, via cocooning and general social distancing, and a flatening the curve so as to reduce the healthcare strain; this is NOT genocide - which is willingly killing a large proportion of a population, every effort will be made to try minimise that, whilst trying to open up the country and reduce other medical and social problems.
thebaz wrote: » The death rate more than likely will be well under 1% , not the 20% you were saying. As a vaccine is at least 12 months away , most countrys will probably be forced into a slow herd immunity appproach, that will somhow protect the vulnerable, via cocooning and general social distancing, and a flatening the curve so as to reduce the healthcare strain; this is NOT genocide - which is willingly killing a large proportion of a population, every effort will be made to try minimise that, whilst trying to open up the country and reduce other medical and social problems.
alwald wrote: » It's bad enough but I have to quote myself Good night indeed :pac:!
thebaz wrote: » clearly - too many baby steps - good night
alwald wrote: » So let me explain, the "rough" estimate for herd immunity to work is that at least 60% of the population must catch C-19 which is akin to a genocide/massacre due to the number of deaths worldwide.
alwald wrote: » Here is a correction to your facts, the death rate stands at 21% and not your 0.5%.
alwald wrote: » I am clearly wasting my time here...the topics were about the Spanish flu endgame and the current death rate based on closed cases not projected...but nevermind indeed.
thebaz wrote: » did you figure out what herd immunity was yet and what the projected death rate might be ? nevermind, your right , the standard is ****e.
alwald wrote: » That's the standard we have to deal with in this thread. I took the hassle to check all departures/arrivals both for yesterday and today, and I reached a different conclusion than yours.
lainey_d_123 wrote: » Have to agree. It would be insanity to open up the schools before at least September. Kids/teens are major spreaders of the virus and sure we're nearly into May now anyway. No point undoing all this hard work for the sake of a few weeks. Feel very sad for those who won't be able to sit exams and whatnot but this one is a no brainer.
shocksy wrote: » Just because you want it to happen doesn't mean it will work out for you. Anyone with an ounce of common sense knows that the school year for this year is finished. They're not gonna rush children back into school for a lousy few weeks just because you or anyone else are fed up of your kids being at home. They were one of the first to be closed and they'll be one of the last to reopen. It doesn't matter a f*ck what Denmark and the likes are doing. Time will tell how it works out for them. I'd be much happier keeping them closed than gambling with such an idea. The Scandinavian countries are doing their own things, they aren't even showing unity on their decisions so anything they decide to do I'd take with a pinch of salt. Let them gamble for the rest of us. I'll happily await your "you were right" reply when the schools don't reopen for this term.
thebaz wrote: » Restrictions seam relaxed at Dublin airport, and for Ryan air
fleet_admiral wrote: » What class is she in? My son is in 2nd and does a zoom meeting with most of his class every Friday. Maybe you could set one up
niallo27 wrote: » The majority have underlying conditions. The ones that dont can easily be absorbed into our hospital system without overwhelming it.
Ace2007 wrote: » No idea how many had underlying conditions, but your assuming that they will concoon, but surely if would will, they should be at the moment, and if that's the case who are these people under 65 in hospitals?
niallo27 wrote: » You tell me, you obviously know. What percentage of people in icu had no underlying conditions. Of course these people will cocoon, if they dont they are either idiots or want to chance getting it.
Ace2007 wrote: » What % of people who need hospital treatment are under 65?
niallo27 wrote: » If they fought in wars then surely sitting in their garden with a glass of wine would be easy for them. If the elderly and vulnerable follow the restrictions then we wont see 150 deaths a day. If they wont follow them, then fines should be issued and possibly jail time.
Ace2007 wrote: » Some of these people your talking about actually fought in wars, how many "young" people in Ireland do you know that are going to war? How hard is it or young and healthy people to stay in doors and watch Netflix - pretty damn hard when you see/hear about people out and about all the time. It's easy to say one cohort of the population should be doing something, but it's ok if another cohort don't. Nobody knows what situation we'll be in come July - if come July we have 150+ deaths a day, do you honestly think we wouldn't be in another "lock down"?
niallo27 wrote: » It's been 5 weeks and it feels like months, so much has developed in that time. We wont be in lockdown come july, everybody knows this, either vulnerable cocoon or take a risk on getting it. How hard is it for them to cocoon and watch Netflix, young people went to war before and these people cant even stay at home for a few months.
JoeA3 wrote: » I don't believe schools and creches will open any time soon either sadly............That said, I watched the news conference earlier, and I don't know about anyone else, but I took a very positive vibe from it. It seemed to be in little doubt to me that restrictions will absolutely be gradually rolled back carefully from May 5th. So I'm afraid the "lockdown forever" brigade on this forum, several of whom I suspect are neckbeard trolls typing from their mother's spare bedroom - will be disappointed.
JoeA3 wrote: » I don't believe schools and creches will open any time soon either sadly. From a personal point of view I'm sad about that tbh, I feel sorry for my little girl, as she is here on her own with no company of her own age since early March and she misses her friends, her cousins and her old Montessori routine greatly. But kids are tough and hopefully she won't remember any of this in 12 months time! Of course, her Montessori had to lay off all the staff - the knock on effects of this lockdown are devastating to so many businesses That said, I watched the news conference earlier, and I don't know about anyone else, but I took a very positive vibe from it. It seemed to be in little doubt to me that restrictions will absolutely be gradually rolled back carefully from May 5th. So I'm afraid the "lockdown forever" brigade on this forum, several of whom I suspect are neckbeard trolls typing from their mother's spare bedroom - will be disappointed.
Cork Boy 53 wrote: » Common ****ing sense.
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