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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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easypazz

faceman wrote: »

Well, this is grim. Doesn't look like May 5th will see a lifting of restrictions.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-doubtful-restrictions-will-be-lifted-on-may-5-994422.html

I wouldn't expect them to announce anything until week after next.

There will definitely be some easing on May 5th.

The people won't buy it much longer.

CtevenSrowder

ELM327 wrote: »

The flattening of the curve is created artificially by using a log scale which means one case between 1 and 1000 is worth 10 cases between 1000 and 10000 etc.

The curve isnt flattening. The numbers are still live and growing. We have delayed it with social distancing but without a vaccine or at least cure for symptons to stop deaths there will be no significant relaxation

Are you sure this is correct? I assumed the scale being used would be the natural log, and not log base 10.

Ace2007

easypazz wrote: »

I wouldn't expect them to announce anything until week after next.

There will definitely be some easing on May 5th.

The people won't buy it much longer.

You'll be very sick if there isn't any restrictions lifted, you've been telling everyone there will be

Hooked

easypazz wrote: »

The people won't buy it much longer.

THIS

As I said a few pages back... come May 5th, they'll have had near 2 months to build "capacity" to cope with the surge.

Common f-ing sense, hand-hygiene, physical distancing, PPE in shops and workplaces to be the "NEW" norm. Let people get out and about (in their family units) and live their (albeit limited) life!

We can't ALL sacrifice our mental health, physical well being and economy for the next 1.5 years... or when, if ever, a vaccine arrives.

Balance. That's the key

F.Grimes

skallywag wrote: »

Most definitely, I do not thing that the 'new cases' metric is meaningful at the moment in any country, and comparing 'new cases' country to country is certainly a complete Apple versus Orange comparison.

For me deaths per day, along with ICU admission, can be the only real worthwhile yardstick at the moment unless of course you do random population testing.

As the numbers increase in those in nursing homes, the numbers of deaths per day will increase. This should start in around a weeks time, as thats when the number of clusters in nursing homes began to take off.

These people will not see an ICU, and thus the stats you quoted wont be very useful.

At the moment, on the 20th there will be around 594 deaths in the country. However, after that the number of deaths per day will increase as the population of older, institutionalised people contract the virus.

You don't need to look only at the stats to work out what will happen. Just look at whats around you. The spread in the community is way down with the measures that have been introduced. Whereas, little has been down in nursing homes, and PPE concerns are ever present.

skallywag

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

Are you sure this is correct? I assumed the scale being used would be the natural log, and not log base 10.

Why would you think that?

polesheep

F.Grimes wrote: »

As the numbers increase in those in nursing homes, the numbers of deaths per day will increase. This should start in around a weeks time, as thats when the number of clusters in nursing homes began to take off.

These people will not see an ICU, and thus the stats you quoted wont be very useful.

At the moment, on the 20th there will be around 594 deaths in the country. However, after that the number of deaths per day will increase as the population of older, institutionalised people contract the virus.

You don't need to look only at the stats to work out what will happen. Just look at whats around you. The spread in the community is way down with the measures that have been introduced. Whereas, little has been down in nursing homes, and PPE concerns are ever present.

Numbers in ICU is the only safe metric to use. Roughly half of all deaths occur in nursing homes and they should not be used to measure what is occurring in the general populace.

[Deleted User]

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

Are you sure this is correct? I assumed the scale being used would be the natural log, and not log base 10.

skallywag wrote: »

Why would you think that?

The curves thrown about in the media are # of cases v time in days......

F.Grimes

polesheep wrote: »

Numbers in ICU is the only safe metric to use. Roughly half of all deaths occur in nursing homes and they should not be used to measure what is occurring in the general populace.

Never said that they should use nursing home deaths as a measure of the general population.

I said they are a clear distinct group, which will not show up in the ICU stats, but will give the impression of an increasing death rate, whereas it is actually because they are sicker population

polesheep

F.Grimes wrote: »

Never said that they should use nursing home deaths as a measure of the general population.

I said they are a clear distinct group, which will not show up in the ICU stats, but will give the impression of an increasing death rate, whereas it is actually because they are sicker population

Perhaps I didn't word it well. I was supporting your post.

Stateofyou

Face masks are now mandatory in NY anytime people go outside in public. Goes into effect on Friday,to be enforced by police.

CtevenSrowder

skallywag wrote: »

Why would you think that?

Because usually when dealing with exponentials you use the number e, and if the log than lne as opposed to log base 10.

F.Grimes

polesheep wrote: »

Perhaps I didn't word it well. I was supporting your post.

ah not to worry

, I probably didn't read it right. Either way you look at it, its still a bad situation. Good news for the general population but a total disaster for those poor people in nursing homes at the moment

F.Grimes

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

Are you sure this is correct? I assumed the scale being used would be the natural log, and not log base 10.

I don't think the scale they are using for the "curve flattening" is a log. It's just a graph of the number of new cases, per day.

The whole idea of "flattening the curve" is a bit over-simplistic in my opinion. but a good pseudo-metric for the general population to give an idea of what they need to do.

is_that_so

faceman wrote: »

Well, this is grim. Doesn't look like May 5th will see a lifting of restrictions.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-doubtful-restrictions-will-be-lifted-on-may-5-994422.html

Saying he doesn't know doesn't mean he's doubtful. The CMO says the same every day - they don't know, yet.

skallywag

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

Because usually when dealing with exponentials you use the number e, and if the log than lne as opposed to log base 10.

Not in my own experience, for 'general population statistics' you would tend to use Log(10), while Ln gets used more for engineering applications where 'e' is intrinsic in the formula of the metric that you are plotting.

CtevenSrowder

skallywag wrote: »

Not in my own experience, for 'general population statistics' you would tend to use Log(10), while Ln gets used more for engineering applications where 'e' is intrinsic in the formula of the metric that you are plotting.

My background is physics so that is why I thought e would be used yes.

skallywag

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

My background is physics so that is why I thought e would be used yes.

Indeed.

E.g. if you were plotting something which has a sinusoidal dependency then you might want to use Ln(x), since Sin(x) = (e(exp(jx)) - e(exp(-jx)) / 2j , etc, but if you are plotting something which is more 'general scattered data' then Log(10) makes more intrinsic sense to most people.

CtevenSrowder

skallywag wrote: »

Indeed.

E.g. if you were plotting something which has a sinusoidal dependency then you might want to use Ln(x), since Sin(x) = (e(exp(jx)) - e(exp(-jx)) / 2j , etc, but if you are plotting something which is more 'general scattered data' then Log(10) makes more intrinsic sense to most people.

It's ix for us physicists;):pac: I'll keep that in mind if ever plotting scattered data thoguh!

Longing

It looks like no lifting of restrictions come the 5th of May. I would think the decision in the UK today will make it easier come time.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-doubtful-covid-19-restrictions-will-be-lifted-on-may-5-994422.html

skallywag

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

It's ix for us physicists;):pac: I'll keep that in mind if ever plotting scattered data thoguh!

Ha, the 'j' thing is hammered into you in Engineering

ixoy

Longing wrote: »

It looks like no lifting of restrictions come the 5th of May. I would think the decision in the UK today will make it easier come time.

How did you pick that up from the article? He just said he doesn't know. He didn't say "unlikely". And that's the right answer because we're only a few days into the extended restrictions so we can't project if the extension has worked.

[Deleted User]

Longing wrote: »

It looks like no lifting of restrictions come the 5th of May. I would think the decision in the UK today will make it easier come time.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-doubtful-covid-19-restrictions-will-be-lifted-on-may-5-994422.html

That’s not what the article says at all. Leo is saying exactly what I would expect him to say, with nearly 3 weeks of current lockdown left

faceman

is_that_so wrote: »

Saying he doesn't know doesn't mean he's doubtful. The CMO says the same every day - they don't know, yet.

He’s creating huge uncertainty again and that’s not a good thing. It erodes credibility in leadership

I don’t trust the CMO either after the cervical scandal, I’d like to think he’s not a sole decision maker here

Longing

Deleted User wrote: »

That’s not what the article says at all. Leo is saying exactly what I would expect him to say, with nearly 3 weeks of current lockdown left

“I don’t know yet if we will be able to relax restrictions on May 5. I know that if we can at all, it’s going to be gradual and will happen over a number of months.”

It takes 12 weeks on average to get a grip on this virus. The government new that when there were setting up the welfare packages. So expect at least June before we see any easing.

KrustyUCC

George Lee had a nice propaganda piece on Drivetime

Spouting on about all the potential lives saved

However its very unlikely that any restrictions be removed on May 5th

Getting out ahead even a few weeks ahead

The R number is at or under 1

ICU admissions down

Rate of hospitalisation down

Lot done more to do

Lot of good that will do people

Clonmel1000

Ace2007 wrote: »

You'll be very sick if there isn't any restrictions lifted, you've been telling everyone there will be

This reads a bit like you’ll be delighted if the restrictions won’t be lifted. This sort of stuff is the reason why some people myself included from time to time wonder if some people are actually enjoying this “lockdown”

GazzaL

R0 is between 0.7 and 1. Hope everyone enjoyed the holiday, back to work on Monday!

is_that_so

faceman wrote: »

He’s creating huge uncertainty again and that’s not a good thing. It erodes credibility in leadership

I don’t trust the CMO either after the cervical scandal, I’d like to think he’s not a sole decision maker here

So it's coloured by your own perception of things. Fair enough. On the semantics I don't know means I don't have an answer, I don't think so means I am doubtful. It's really a headline writer stirring it.

GazzaL

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

This reads a bit like you’ll be delighted if the restrictions won’t be lifted. This sort of stuff is the reason why some people myself included from time to time wonder if some people are actually enjoying this “lockdown”

Some people are loving the lockdown. They're rubbing their hands together, getting €350 a week to sit on their holes watching TV and eating takeaways. They're ignorant of the carnage that will happen to businesses and ergo jobs.

The vast majority of people want to get back to a level of normality and continue to use social distancing.