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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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is_that_so

faceman wrote: »

Well, this is grim. Doesn't look like May 5th will see a lifting of restrictions.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-doubtful-restrictions-will-be-lifted-on-may-5-994422.html

Saying he doesn't know doesn't mean he's doubtful. The CMO says the same every day - they don't know, yet.

F.Grimes

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

Are you sure this is correct? I assumed the scale being used would be the natural log, and not log base 10.

I don't think the scale they are using for the "curve flattening" is a log. It's just a graph of the number of new cases, per day.

The whole idea of "flattening the curve" is a bit over-simplistic in my opinion. but a good pseudo-metric for the general population to give an idea of what they need to do.

F.Grimes

polesheep wrote: »

Perhaps I didn't word it well. I was supporting your post.

ah not to worry

, I probably didn't read it right. Either way you look at it, its still a bad situation. Good news for the general population but a total disaster for those poor people in nursing homes at the moment

CtevenSrowder

skallywag wrote: »

Why would you think that?

Because usually when dealing with exponentials you use the number e, and if the log than lne as opposed to log base 10.

Stateofyou

Face masks are now mandatory in NY anytime people go outside in public. Goes into effect on Friday,to be enforced by police.

polesheep

F.Grimes wrote: »

Never said that they should use nursing home deaths as a measure of the general population.

I said they are a clear distinct group, which will not show up in the ICU stats, but will give the impression of an increasing death rate, whereas it is actually because they are sicker population

Perhaps I didn't word it well. I was supporting your post.

F.Grimes

polesheep wrote: »

Numbers in ICU is the only safe metric to use. Roughly half of all deaths occur in nursing homes and they should not be used to measure what is occurring in the general populace.

Never said that they should use nursing home deaths as a measure of the general population.

I said they are a clear distinct group, which will not show up in the ICU stats, but will give the impression of an increasing death rate, whereas it is actually because they are sicker population

[Deleted User]

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

Are you sure this is correct? I assumed the scale being used would be the natural log, and not log base 10.

skallywag wrote: »

Why would you think that?

The curves thrown about in the media are # of cases v time in days......

polesheep

F.Grimes wrote: »

As the numbers increase in those in nursing homes, the numbers of deaths per day will increase. This should start in around a weeks time, as thats when the number of clusters in nursing homes began to take off.

These people will not see an ICU, and thus the stats you quoted wont be very useful.

At the moment, on the 20th there will be around 594 deaths in the country. However, after that the number of deaths per day will increase as the population of older, institutionalised people contract the virus.

You don't need to look only at the stats to work out what will happen. Just look at whats around you. The spread in the community is way down with the measures that have been introduced. Whereas, little has been down in nursing homes, and PPE concerns are ever present.

Numbers in ICU is the only safe metric to use. Roughly half of all deaths occur in nursing homes and they should not be used to measure what is occurring in the general populace.

skallywag

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

Are you sure this is correct? I assumed the scale being used would be the natural log, and not log base 10.

Why would you think that?

F.Grimes

skallywag wrote: »

Most definitely, I do not thing that the 'new cases' metric is meaningful at the moment in any country, and comparing 'new cases' country to country is certainly a complete Apple versus Orange comparison.

For me deaths per day, along with ICU admission, can be the only real worthwhile yardstick at the moment unless of course you do random population testing.

As the numbers increase in those in nursing homes, the numbers of deaths per day will increase. This should start in around a weeks time, as thats when the number of clusters in nursing homes began to take off.

These people will not see an ICU, and thus the stats you quoted wont be very useful.

At the moment, on the 20th there will be around 594 deaths in the country. However, after that the number of deaths per day will increase as the population of older, institutionalised people contract the virus.

You don't need to look only at the stats to work out what will happen. Just look at whats around you. The spread in the community is way down with the measures that have been introduced. Whereas, little has been down in nursing homes, and PPE concerns are ever present.

Hooked

easypazz wrote: »

The people won't buy it much longer.

THIS

As I said a few pages back... come May 5th, they'll have had near 2 months to build "capacity" to cope with the surge.

Common f-ing sense, hand-hygiene, physical distancing, PPE in shops and workplaces to be the "NEW" norm. Let people get out and about (in their family units) and live their (albeit limited) life!

We can't ALL sacrifice our mental health, physical well being and economy for the next 1.5 years... or when, if ever, a vaccine arrives.

Balance. That's the key

Ace2007

easypazz wrote: »

I wouldn't expect them to announce anything until week after next.

There will definitely be some easing on May 5th.

The people won't buy it much longer.

You'll be very sick if there isn't any restrictions lifted, you've been telling everyone there will be

CtevenSrowder

ELM327 wrote: »

The flattening of the curve is created artificially by using a log scale which means one case between 1 and 1000 is worth 10 cases between 1000 and 10000 etc.

The curve isnt flattening. The numbers are still live and growing. We have delayed it with social distancing but without a vaccine or at least cure for symptons to stop deaths there will be no significant relaxation

Are you sure this is correct? I assumed the scale being used would be the natural log, and not log base 10.

easypazz

faceman wrote: »

Well, this is grim. Doesn't look like May 5th will see a lifting of restrictions.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-doubtful-restrictions-will-be-lifted-on-may-5-994422.html

I wouldn't expect them to announce anything until week after next.

There will definitely be some easing on May 5th.

The people won't buy it much longer.

[Deleted User]

ELM327 wrote: »

The flattening of the curve is created artificially by using a log scale which means one case between 1 and 1000 is worth 10 cases between 1000 and 10000 etc..

Is it?

ELM327 wrote: »

.......The curve isnt flattening. The numbers are still live and growing. We have delayed it with social distancing but without a vaccine or at least cure for symptons to stop deaths there will be no significant relaxation

By delaying the curve it's inherently flattening. There was 400 new cases in a single day weeks ago. ......... 657 yesterday.

I'm going to say unfortunately (in so far as lifting restrictions will likely allow new cases that otherwise wouldn't occur), but there's no vaccine or at least cure for symptons to stop deaths (impossible really) and restrictions are being lifted in various European countries.

skallywag

ixoy wrote: »

But that logic could be applied to every country, no?

Most definitely, I do not thing that the 'new cases' metric is meaningful at the moment in any country, and comparing 'new cases' country to country is certainly a complete Apple versus Orange comparison.

For me deaths per day, along with ICU admission, can be the only real worthwhile yardstick at the moment unless of course you do random population testing.

ixoy

skallywag wrote: »

Agree completely with you, but we have no real way of knowing what the real rise in new cases is, that's the snag. The 'new cases' metric is currently pretty useless.

But that logic could be applied to every country, no? Can you trust any of them to have a handle on new cases? And yet, a number are looking at lifting restrictions.

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

There's merit in that viewpoint, numbers hospitalised, numbers in ICUs and numbers passing away are more telling as to what's going on.

and they appear to be levelling off

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/number-of-covid-19-patients-in-critical-care-beginning-to-level-off-994371.html

chicorytip

I think the wearing of masks or some other form of face covering in public places ought to have been made mandatory here from the start. The government could have put out tenders for sufficient supplies which could have been fulfilled. I have no doubt about that. There are Irish companies involved in the manufacture of these products that are exporting to the Far East at present. The benefits of masks in preventing the spread of infection are enormous and proven beyond doubt. Look at countries where this has been compulsory since the beginning of the pandemic. Taiwan, where only five COVID related deaths have been recorded and the Czech Republic and Austria where rates of new infections are at zero, effectively. Then look at Ireland, the U.K. and the United States. It's a striking comparison.

[Deleted User]

skallywag wrote: »

........ I think that the 'new cases' metric is pretty meaningless.

There's merit in that viewpoint, numbers hospitalised, numbers in ICUs and numbers passing away are more telling as to what's going on.

skallywag

Cyrus wrote: »

the important metrics are the rates of growth in new cases ...

Agree completely with you, but we have no real way of knowing what the real rise in new cases is, that's the snag. The 'new cases' metric is currently pretty useless.

F.Grimes

skallywag wrote: »

The day to day numbers are definitely showing an increasing trend and are most definitely not improving.

Strongly disagree, the numbers are incredibly promising. There has basically been no unpredictable growth in the last 2 weeks. The spread rate in the last week has been vacillating between 1.3 and way less than 1.

The only problems that truly remain in the country are healthcare workers (around 170-200 healthcare workers are being diagnosed with covid per day)

And in nursing homes

Cyrus

faceman wrote: »

Well, this is grim. Doesn't look like May 5th will see a lifting of restrictions.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-doubtful-restrictions-will-be-lifted-on-may-5-994422.html

there isnt anything alarming in that. they wont say anything about lifting any restrictions until very close to the time, if they say now that in 3 weeks people can do xy and z a certain cohort will run with that immediately.

skallywag

ixoy wrote: »

We don't have a good view on growth though

Well unless we do complete random testing on the population as a whole (Austria recently did this before somewhat reopening) then I think that the 'new cases' metric is pretty meaningless.

Cyrus

skallywag wrote: »

Are you saying that we can see some improvement in those same numbers?

you can take them anyway way you want, its only one set of data, do you disagree that 38 is less than 41?

the important metrics are the rates of growth in new cases and the number of contacts identified for new diagnoses. both of these are decreasing.

ixoy

BanditLuke wrote: »

They aren't falling.

We don't have a good view on growth though. We've had a massive backlog that we're clearing now so some of the recent spikes aren't just one day's worth but compounded results from multiple days. The backlog is due to be massively reduced from Friday so assuming we've got capacity now for it to stay its current size, we'll start to get a better idea of cases, at least those that meet the criteria.

skallywag

Cyrus wrote: »

they arent

.16,36,25,28,25,33,14,31,41,38 ..

this isnt an increasing trend unless you are taking 2 days in isolation, if you want to argue that then the trend is decreasing as 38 is less than 41 :pac:

Are you saying that we can see some improvement in those same numbers?

faceman

Well, this is grim. Doesn't look like May 5th will see a lifting of restrictions.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-doubtful-restrictions-will-be-lifted-on-may-5-994422.html

Cyrus

skallywag wrote: »

The day to day numbers are definitely showing an increasing trend and are most definitely not improving.

they arent

.16,36,25,28,25,33,14,31,41,38 ..

this isnt an increasing trend unless you are taking 2 days in isolation, if you want to argue that then the trend is decreasing as 38 is less than 41 :pac: