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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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skallywag

F.Grimes wrote: »

Yes and your findings?

The day to day numbers are definitely showing an increasing trend and are most definitely not improving.

Cyrus

Cupatae wrote: »

Ah sur jesus they are either going up or down. Splitting hairs much?

splitting hairs? i said it depends on what numbers you are looking at,

rate of growth of new cases, rate of increases in deaths, number of community transmissions.

Wibbs

skallywag wrote: »

.
Has the level of Math been taught at schools really brought us to this, or are people just seeing what they want to see, as this whole thing is just too big for them I wonder ... deary me.

Maths. we're not Yanks. Yet.

F.Grimes

skallywag wrote: »

:rolleyes:

Put those numbers into a quick chart in excel, take a look at the trend over the most recent days ...

Yes and your findings?

skallywag

F.Grimes wrote: »

The Number of deaths has been averaging 30. So I would say that the numbers of deaths are level.

:rolleyes:

Put those numbers into a quick chart in excel, take a look at the trend over the most recent days ...

F.Grimes

skallywag wrote: »

...16,36,25,28,25,33,14,31,41,38 ...

Are some people really trying to argue that they see a 'the numbers are falling' trend in that?

Has the level of Math been taught at schools really brought us to this, or are people just seeing what they want to see, as this whole thing is just too big for them I wonder ... deary me.

The Number of deaths has been averaging 30. So I would say that the numbers of deaths are level.

Paddygreen

facehugger99 wrote: »

We are facing into a dark decade ahead unless we get the economy back up and running extremely quickly.

A decade that will kill multiples of the numbers that Covid-19 will kill and it won't be people in the twilight of their lives.

Sorry but the economy is secondary to the war on coronavirus. That has been decided by right-thinking governments everywhere. The restart of the economy will have to be for the greater good, ie it won't be the same. Forward thinking Governments are starting to see that the green New deal is the only way forward going forward.

ELM327

Cyrus wrote: »

it depends on what numbers you are looking at doesnt it.

The flattening of the curve is created artificially by using a log scale which means one case between 1 and 1000 is worth 10 cases between 1000 and 10000 etc.

The curve isnt flattening. The numbers are still live and growing. We have delayed it with social distancing but without a vaccine or at least cure for symptons to stop deaths there will be no significant relaxation

[Deleted User]

Cupatae wrote: »

Ah sur jesus they are either going up or down. Splitting hairs much?

Rate of increase is also very significant, hugely so really.

Cupatae

Cyrus wrote: »

it depends on what numbers you are looking at doesnt it.

Ah sur jesus they are either going up or down. Splitting hairs much?

[Deleted User]

Taking two, two week ish windows since March 17th the numbers hospitalised and numbers admitted to ICU do suggest there's some cause for optimism, I say optimism, not complacency btw.

Total number of cases 11261
Total number hospitalised 1968
Total number admitted to ICU 280
Total number of deaths 435
*All statistics measured at midnight on Monday 13 April.

Total number of cases 2990
Total number hospitalised 834
Total number admitted to ICU 126
Total number of deaths 84
*All statistics measured at midnight on Monday, 30 March.

skallywag

...16,36,25,28,25,33,14,31,41,38 ...

Are some people really trying to argue that they see a 'the numbers are falling' trend in that?

Has the level of Math been taught at schools really brought us to this, or are people just seeing what they want to see, as this whole thing is just too big for them I wonder ... deary me.

Cyrus

BanditLuke wrote: »

They aren't falling.

it depends on what numbers you are looking at doesnt it.

is_that_so

polesheep wrote: »

This is true. Medical staff want to get back to their usual work. The next debate will be: 'Job well done or hysterical overreaction?'. The mods will have their work cut out on that one.:D

Well I'll be out in the sun when that comes!

skallywag

Gael23 wrote: »

If the numbers keep falling people won’t take more after May 5th

What numbers are falling?

Wibbs

eleventh wrote: »

If this research was on covid19, can you post a link to it please.

It's on the ability for coughs and sneezes to propel droplets way beyond two metres and that droplets were found to hang in the air for up to ten minutes. Unless Covid-19 is magically different to a virus like influenza which spreads in a similar way through aerosolised droplets, though is nearly half as contagious.

Here's some Japanese research on microdroplets and their possible transmission risk. It certainly shows them hanging in the air for a lot longer than the seconds usually believed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UASi5OUv9Pg

Now look at the massive difference a basic surgical mask makes.

There's some more from that channel IIRC(feck, just noticed you have to open the youtube link directly, sorry).

BanditLuke

Gael23 wrote: »

If the numbers keep falling people won’t take more after May 5th

They aren't falling.

growleaves

This is true. Medical staff want to get back to their usual work. The next debate will be: 'Job well done or hysterical overreaction?'. The mods will have their work cut out on that one.

That debate has already begun in the megathread.

Me: Dr. Fauci's model, and Imperial college's model, over-estimated the projected mortality rate by a considerable margin.

Other posters: You're a bad person!

polesheep

is_that_so wrote: »

Hospital and ICU admissions have been stable so the anticipated pressure has not materialised to date.

This is true. Medical staff want to get back to their usual work. The next debate will be: 'Job well done or hysterical overreaction?'. The mods will have their work cut out on that one.:D

El_Duderino 09

seamus wrote: »

Your implication here is that even with distancing measures, the health system will become overrun.

We are where are now though not because distancing was ineffective, but because the virus already had a very strong foothold before we even put distancing measures in place.

When it comes to relaxing restrictions, it's apples and oranges. The health system is different from its state on March 12th. Different in capacity, different in procedure, different in staff allocation.
Society is different. Understanding is different, attitudes are different.

So the short answer is that we don't know just how effective distancing may or may not be in the medium-term, based on our reconfigured society.

While people have been erroneously pointing to Sweden as an example of a country surviving without a lockdown, Sweden has shown that distancing can be effective in a limited fashion.

It seems likely that allowing the virus to spread in a limited fashion is feasible, provided that the transmission rate can be kept down (probably 1.2 or lower) *AND* vulnerable groups are protected.

We know that the vast majority of hospitalisations are vulnerable groups. So it seems logical that any relaxation of restrictions will need to include measures to limit their exposure.
Higher transmission rates amongst the rest of the population may then be OK. Hospitalisation rates in general are about 9% of infections based on global numbers. Which only takes into account people actually tested. So the true hospitalisation rate might be significantly less again.

If you remove the over 70s and people with underlying conditions, that hospitalisation rate drops to about 0.5%. Of which about a third will end up in ICU.

The question is whether we have hospital capacity for that. I don't know, but optimistic bad numbers I'm running here, say that we do. So long as we can keep vulnerable groups protected.

Yeah, some things will have changed. The health services capacity has increased. Supplied of ppe and other necessaries has been secured. People understand social distancing and are getting more used to observing it - obvious exceptions notwithstanding.

As you said we would have lower rates of transmission now than before the lockdown and hospitals could deal with higher levels of acute cases.

But it's also necessary to acknowledge that lifting restrictions will increase transmissions. And if transmission levels get too high, then there will need to be lockdown again. And that's not the end of the world, we can go into lockdown again.

The higher the ICU capacity and the higher the level of transmissions possible without overwhelming the ICU, the sooner we can get herd immunity and get through this thing.

growleaves

Didn't know 'we' were part of the uk

We aren't.

But the economic destruction of our largest trading partner might inconvenience us somewhat.

polesheep

Ace2007 wrote: »

ok if that's what you think...

It's the way it will be, until there is a vaccine.

Ulysses Gaze

easypazz wrote: »

Because I know Guinness are not producing or delivering.

What's the harm in a 2 minute phone call?

is_that_so

Ace2007 wrote: »

But the numbers haven't been falling?

Hospital and ICU admissions have been stable so the anticipated pressure has not materialised to date.

is_that_so

Gael23 wrote: »

If the numbers keep falling people won’t take more after May 5th

The mood music suggests that they would like to be in a position to ease them. In the interim expect lots of "nowhere near that point yet".

Ace2007

Gael23 wrote: »

If the numbers keep falling people won’t take more after May 5th

But the numbers haven't been falling?

easypazz

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Why don't you ring them and find out?

Because I know Guinness are not producing or delivering.

sabat

fleet_admiral wrote: »

Didn't know 'we' were part of the uk

Yeah, for about 120 years...

LoughNeagh2017

I have read supermarket workers complaining about people buying non essential goods like junk food and coke. This annoys me as the supermarkets work all year round to get me addicted to sugar with their discounts and now they say it is unacceptable for me to go out and buy coke whenever they helped create my emotional dependency on it

Ulysses Gaze

easypazz wrote: »

From where will they be getting the kegs?

Why don't you ring them and find out?