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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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endabob1

easypazz wrote: »

You can't get a pint of draught beer at home..

There are ways

https://www.beerhawk.co.uk/perfect-draft-range/perfect-draft-bundles

easypazz

Ace2007 wrote: »

Graingers Hanlons Corner Dublin

That's great if you live near there.

No use to most people though.

growleaves

Coronavirus lockdown could be worst hit to UK economy since 18th century

All those Charles Dickens novels with gangs of orphans were set during the recession after the Napoleonic wars at the beginning of the 19th century. Apparently this contraction could be worse than that. Lets hope we 'bounce back'.

Ace2007

easypazz wrote: »

That's great if you live near there.

No use to most people though.

Doesn't matter - one it prove you were wrong and two doesn't stop your local from doing it if they wanted to - and if locals wanted to keep customer to a local business...

suicide_circus

The notion that you can hit the pause button on an economy is utterly absurd.

alwald

Airborne transmission is "plausible" according to some studies suggesting that C-19 could remain airborne for "up to 3 hours". I remember reading an article about a month ago from Chinese scientists that made this suggestion too when looking into patients and the source of their infection.

stephenjmcd

Switzerlands plans to relax restrictions
From April 27, 2020 , hospitals can again perform all procedures, including non-urgent ones. Outpatient medical practices such as dentists or physiotherapists as well as hairdressing, massage and cosmetic studios are allowed to resume operations. Hardware stores, garden centers, flower shops and garden centers can open again.
From April 27, the range restrictions in grocery stores will also be lifted. If everyday goods and other goods are on the sales area of the grocery store, they may be sold.
On May 11, 2020 , the compulsory schools and shops will reopen - if the situation permits. The Federal Council wants to make the decision on April 29.
From June 8, 2020 , secondary schools, vocational schools and universities as well as museums, zoos and libraries should reopen. The Federal Council will decide on the details of this stage on May 27.
The Federal Council has not yet passed any decisions on further stages. At which of his next meetings will he decide when major events will be possible again.

easypazz

Ace2007 wrote: »

Doesn't matter - one it prove you were wrong and two doesn't stop your local from doing it if they wanted to - and if locals wanted to keep customer to a local business...

It hasn't proved me wrong, I can't get a pint of draught at home.

Regarding my local bars, where are they going to get the beer now that Guinness have stopped producing and delivering kegs?

Same goes for that pub in Dublin BTW.

And anybody offering a keg at home service.

They won't be able to get kegs, and whatever Guinness they have left is approaching out of date.

KiKi III

easypazz wrote: »

It hasn't proved me wrong, I can't get a pint of draught at home.

Regarding my local bars, where are they going to get the beer now that Guinness have stopped producing and delivering kegs?

Same goes for that pub in Dublin BTW.

And anybody offering a keg at home service.

They won't be able to get kegs, and whatever Guinness they have left is approaching out of date.

Unopened kegs have a shelf life of 2-3 months. By which time production lines will almost definitely have reopened.

So what’s your point?

Ulysses Gaze

easypazz wrote: »

You actually can't.

https://thebarcompany.ie/shop/kegs/heineken-50-ltr-keg/

easypazz

KiKi III wrote: »

Unopened kegs have a shelf life of 2-3 months. By which time production lines will almost definitely have reopened.

So what’s your point?

Point is I can't get a pint at home, which I was told I can.

fleet_admiral

growleaves wrote: »

Coronavirus lockdown could be worst hit to UK economy since 18th century

All those Charles Dickens novels with gangs of orphans were set during the recession after the Napoleonic wars at the beginning of the 19th century. Apparently this contraction could be worse than that. Lets hope we 'bounce back'.

Didn't know 'we' were part of the uk

Gael23

If the numbers keep falling people won’t take more after May 5th

easypazz

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

https://thebarcompany.ie/shop/kegs/heineken-50-ltr-keg/

From where will they be getting the kegs?

KiKi III

easypazz wrote: »

Point is I can't get a pint at home, which I was told I can.

Based on your posts here, laying off the pints might not be the worst decision you ever made.

Ulysses Gaze

easypazz wrote: »

From where will they be getting the kegs?

Why don't you ring them and find out?

LoughNeagh2017

I have read supermarket workers complaining about people buying non essential goods like junk food and coke. This annoys me as the supermarkets work all year round to get me addicted to sugar with their discounts and now they say it is unacceptable for me to go out and buy coke whenever they helped create my emotional dependency on it

sabat

fleet_admiral wrote: »

Didn't know 'we' were part of the uk

Yeah, for about 120 years...

easypazz

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Why don't you ring them and find out?

Because I know Guinness are not producing or delivering.

Ace2007

Gael23 wrote: »

If the numbers keep falling people won’t take more after May 5th

But the numbers haven't been falling?

is_that_so

Gael23 wrote: »

If the numbers keep falling people won’t take more after May 5th

The mood music suggests that they would like to be in a position to ease them. In the interim expect lots of "nowhere near that point yet".

is_that_so

Ace2007 wrote: »

But the numbers haven't been falling?

Hospital and ICU admissions have been stable so the anticipated pressure has not materialised to date.

Ulysses Gaze

easypazz wrote: »

Because I know Guinness are not producing or delivering.

What's the harm in a 2 minute phone call?

polesheep

Ace2007 wrote: »

ok if that's what you think...

It's the way it will be, until there is a vaccine.

growleaves

Didn't know 'we' were part of the uk

We aren't.

But the economic destruction of our largest trading partner might inconvenience us somewhat.

El_Duderino 09

seamus wrote: »

Your implication here is that even with distancing measures, the health system will become overrun.

We are where are now though not because distancing was ineffective, but because the virus already had a very strong foothold before we even put distancing measures in place.

When it comes to relaxing restrictions, it's apples and oranges. The health system is different from its state on March 12th. Different in capacity, different in procedure, different in staff allocation.
Society is different. Understanding is different, attitudes are different.

So the short answer is that we don't know just how effective distancing may or may not be in the medium-term, based on our reconfigured society.

While people have been erroneously pointing to Sweden as an example of a country surviving without a lockdown, Sweden has shown that distancing can be effective in a limited fashion.

It seems likely that allowing the virus to spread in a limited fashion is feasible, provided that the transmission rate can be kept down (probably 1.2 or lower) *AND* vulnerable groups are protected.

We know that the vast majority of hospitalisations are vulnerable groups. So it seems logical that any relaxation of restrictions will need to include measures to limit their exposure.
Higher transmission rates amongst the rest of the population may then be OK. Hospitalisation rates in general are about 9% of infections based on global numbers. Which only takes into account people actually tested. So the true hospitalisation rate might be significantly less again.

If you remove the over 70s and people with underlying conditions, that hospitalisation rate drops to about 0.5%. Of which about a third will end up in ICU.

The question is whether we have hospital capacity for that. I don't know, but optimistic bad numbers I'm running here, say that we do. So long as we can keep vulnerable groups protected.

Yeah, some things will have changed. The health services capacity has increased. Supplied of ppe and other necessaries has been secured. People understand social distancing and are getting more used to observing it - obvious exceptions notwithstanding.

As you said we would have lower rates of transmission now than before the lockdown and hospitals could deal with higher levels of acute cases.

But it's also necessary to acknowledge that lifting restrictions will increase transmissions. And if transmission levels get too high, then there will need to be lockdown again. And that's not the end of the world, we can go into lockdown again.

The higher the ICU capacity and the higher the level of transmissions possible without overwhelming the ICU, the sooner we can get herd immunity and get through this thing.

polesheep

is_that_so wrote: »

Hospital and ICU admissions have been stable so the anticipated pressure has not materialised to date.

This is true. Medical staff want to get back to their usual work. The next debate will be: 'Job well done or hysterical overreaction?'. The mods will have their work cut out on that one.:D

growleaves

This is true. Medical staff want to get back to their usual work. The next debate will be: 'Job well done or hysterical overreaction?'. The mods will have their work cut out on that one.

That debate has already begun in the megathread.

Me: Dr. Fauci's model, and Imperial college's model, over-estimated the projected mortality rate by a considerable margin.

Other posters: You're a bad person!

BanditLuke

Gael23 wrote: »

If the numbers keep falling people won’t take more after May 5th

They aren't falling.

Wibbs

eleventh wrote: »

If this research was on covid19, can you post a link to it please.

It's on the ability for coughs and sneezes to propel droplets way beyond two metres and that droplets were found to hang in the air for up to ten minutes. Unless Covid-19 is magically different to a virus like influenza which spreads in a similar way through aerosolised droplets, though is nearly half as contagious.

Here's some Japanese research on microdroplets and their possible transmission risk. It certainly shows them hanging in the air for a lot longer than the seconds usually believed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UASi5OUv9Pg

Now look at the massive difference a basic surgical mask makes.

There's some more from that channel IIRC(feck, just noticed you have to open the youtube link directly, sorry).