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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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Cork Boy 53

never_mind wrote: »

Lol no I’d say 2045... actually, wait, what age are you and then I’ll decide?

Considerably older than you anyway judging by childish comments like these.

KrustyUCC

Henry Ford III wrote: »

https://www.newstalk.com/news/harris-ireland-not-yet-stage-begin-reduction-covid-19-measures-1000545?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1586977416

Thread. We aren't even close to relaxing anything.

Good of Harris to give such a positive update lol

At least there's time before 5th of May

He's arleady got a 22 day entension to the lockdown

This narrative of we're doing well, flattening the curve, but not well enough can't be used indefinitely

Ah sure lads just another 2 weeks
One more to be sure

Rinse and repeat

Things like the article below make my blood boil

The majority can do everything that we're being asked but yet you have idiots like this

https://www.rte.ie/news/investigations-unit/2020/0415/1130759-large-funeral/

Downlinz

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah of course people will break the rules and take more risks. That's natural. But the objective isn't to get transmissions down to zero. We need 2/3 of the population to get it to achieve herd Immunity. The people who flaunt the laws will be more likely to get it sooner.

But in reality the vulnerable people can't be allowed to get it so most of the rest of us will have to get it at some point before there will be herd Immunity. It's frustrating to see them acting the maggot. But, as you say, it's human nature.

No we don't, it would take 3 years + for 60% infection to be achieved without overwhelming hospitals given our ICU capacity. There's a lot of idiotic takes out there but "we're all going to get it eventually" has to be the most stupid.

There'll likely be a vaccine long before then and even if not this was never a suggested strategy for ebola, SARS or any other deadly virus which are very possible to contain which we've already seen in the east for COVID-19.
The only reason to consider herd immunity is if the prime objective is genocide.

the kelt

brutes1 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/courts/2020/0415/1130727-covid-19-restrictions-challenged-in-high-court/

Challenge to restrictions

Several articles in main press last few days looking for relaxing of same

To be fair in times of crisis people step up and do whatever it is they’re good at.

Ye know sports people doing online classes, musicians doing gigs and songs online, authors giving online audio if their books etc etc.

These 2 are just the same ye know, stepping up what they normally do which is to act the complete and utter gowl.

I have seen a few cases where this virus took the role of acting out karma, be a shame if this was one of them!!

seamus

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

But gyms are also miles down the list of essential businesses. Unless we can test for Immunity to the disease and give those people a "passport" of sorts, and only allow in those who have proof of Immunity. Other than that, gyms won't be open for a long while yet.

I agree gyms are far from essential, but they would also be classed as fairly low risk. In general they don't get massively crowded, by necessity people need space between eachother when working out.
One would also expect a certain amount of self-isolation; people will naturally shy away from the gym when they don't feel well.

I'm not sure that by default "non-essential" businesses will be forced to remain closed for a long time yet.

My expectation is that there will be a general allowance for businesses to reopen provided that they can effectively maintain distancing between patrons.

Not in May, but I'd be very surprised if most businesses aren't up and running to some degree by September.

Waiting for widespread antibody/immunity testing before reopening non-essential businesses won't be a thing. We may as well remain on lockdown until 2021.

Henry Ford III wrote: »

Thread. We aren't even close to relaxing anything.

"We're not ready right now" is not the same thing as "we aren't even close". We're on day 4 of a 21-day lockdown.

Think about how different things were 21 days ago.

The Irish media has, in the last couple of days, decided to start pushing the line that, "This lockdown is never going to end!!" panic line, even though the experts are saying exactly the opposite.

Look at this for example;
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-lockdown-steps-could-remain-into-winter-says-expert-1.4221164

The implication from the headline is that Ireland might potentially be locked down until Winter.

But if you look at the article, what was actually said was;

Dr Cillian De Gascun, director of the National Virus Reference Laboratory and a consultant virologist, said it was “certainly possible” that some restrictions would have to be retained until a vaccine is developed.

Which is a far, far cry from what the headline implies.

They're all at it, from the broadsheets to the rags. Why they're deliberately trying to stoke up hysteria and a siege mentality, I just don't know.

Simon Harris did not say that "we're not even close". The experts did not say that lockdown would remain until Winter. Why is anyone trying to sell long-term lockdown as a done deal?

Nermal

Ace2007 wrote: »

It's all well looking for relaxing of measures, but when the ICU beds and hospitals come overrun, what do you do then?

Build a tent outside them and triage.

Downlinz wrote: »

There'll likely be a vaccine long before then and even if not this was never a suggested strategy for ebola, SARS or any other deadly virus which are very possible to contain which we've already seen in the east for COVID-19.

Those viruses were actually deadly. If you're under 65, this one is as deadly as a 9-mile car journey: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1.full.pdf

never_mind

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Considerably older than you anyway judging by childish comments like these.

Ha cool, we will stick with that!

I'll stick with the childish comments and you can continue to scare-monger! Simple!

DeVore

Nermal wrote: »

Build a tent outside them and triage.

Those viruses were actually deadly. If you're under 65, this one is as deadly as a 9-mile car journey: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1.full.pdf

Provided you dont have
1. Asthma
2. Diabetes.
3. COPD
4. Heart Disease. (You know, the disease where Ireland ranks as one of the highest in the world: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/heart-disease-deaths-among-world-s-highest-1.216466)
5. HyperTension (aka high blood pressure).

So yeah, sure, if you dont have any of those and you arent over 65 then I guess its not much risk. About 1 int 500 shot of dying. For about 3M people.

BanditLuke

Henry Ford III wrote: »

https://www.newstalk.com/news/harris-ireland-not-yet-stage-begin-reduction-covid-19-measures-1000545?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1586977416

Thread. We aren't even close to relaxing anything.

Proper governance. FG had a slow start and made many mistakes but at least they are now stepping up to the mark. Would like to see proper enforcement of the current measures though.

Thelonious Monk

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Things like the article below make my blood boil

The majority can do everything that we're being asked but yet you have idiots like this

https://www.rte.ie/news/investigations-unit/2020/0415/1130759-large-funeral/

Travellers and scumbags don't seem to be adhering at all. Inner city Dublin is full of gangs of kids everywhere as if nothing is happening.
I suppose they were never going to comply to anything anyway but we just have to hope the majority does.

easypazz

BanditLuke wrote: »

Proper governance. FG had a slow start and made many mistakes but at least they are now stepping up to the mark. Would like to see proper enforcement of the current measures though.

Lets be honest, you would like to see Army on every street corner for 12 months and every public park, beach car park, pub, cinema and sports stadium demolished.

Things will reopen on May 5th.

No justification for holding us all down much longer when this is clearly clustered.

pgj2015

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/coronavirus-good-news-expert-eyes-21867725

This paper went for a more positive angle.

DeVore

Nermal wrote: »

Build a tent outside them and triage.

Those viruses were actually deadly. If you're under 65, this one is as deadly as a 9-mile car journey: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1.full.pdf

From the thread you linked (which only considers deaths up to 4th April).

"Individuals with age <65 account for 5%-9% of all COVID-19 deaths in the 8 European epicenters, and approach 30% in three US hotbed locations. "

"People <65 years old and not having any underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.3%, 0.7%, and 1.8% of all COVID-19 deaths in Netherlands, Italy, and New York City. "

So, this study basically says "if you arent one of the people at risk... guess what, your risk is low!" Wow. Much insight. Very science.

Nermal

I am simply not willing to accept a life of only 'essential activity' until a vaccine is developed. To accept not travelling, not going to the gym, pub, restaurants, cinema or sporting events. I am quite sure that I am not alone.

But if we do allow those things, suppression will prove impossible. Half the people with the virus don't have any symptoms at all. The tests routinely give false negatives. Contact tracing will not be effective.

Herd immunity is the only option left after suppression is eliminated.

Cyrus

BanditLuke wrote: »

Proper governance. FG had a slow start and made many mistakes but at least they are now stepping up to the mark. Would like to see proper enforcement of the current measures though.

read the below for what will be happening here starting 5 May

you can fantasise about a full scale lockdown for the next 18 months all you want but it wont happen

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0415/1130544-coronavirus-europe/

Cyrus

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Travellers and scumbags don't seem to be adhering at all. Inner city Dublin is full of gangs of kids everywhere as if nothing is happening.
I suppose they were never going to comply to anything anyway but we just have to hope the majority does.

these cohorts dont tend to observe the rule of law in general, it wont be any different now.

[Deleted User]

Nermal wrote: »

I am simply not willing to accept a life of only 'essential activity' until a vaccine is developed. To accept not travelling, not going to the gym, pub, restaurants, cinema or sporting events. I am quite sure that I am not alone.............

Cyrus wrote: »

read the below for what will be happening here starting 5 May.....

There is undoubtedly going to be easing of restrictions. The current regime is unsustainable beyond the 5 week timeline.

alwald

easypazz wrote: »

Lets be honest, you would like to see Army on every street corner for 12 months and every public park, beach car park, pub, cinema and sports stadium demolished.

You can add publicly flogging those who don't observe the current rules since you are at it.

KrustyUCC

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Travellers and scumbags don't seem to be adhering at all. Inner city Dublin is full of gangs of kids everywhere as if nothing is happening.
I suppose they were never going to comply to anything anyway but we just have to hope the majority does.

True they weren't

Still crap like that will be used to extend lockdown for the majority doing the right things and if those idiots get sick afterwards some will need hospital and ICUs

never_mind

Augeo wrote: »

There is undoubtedly going to be easing of restrictions. The current regime is unsustainable beyond the 5 week timeline.

They either give us an inch (extend 2k to 15k, let's say) or most people will take a mile and start ignoring all guidance given. You can't tell billions of people to stay in door for a vaccine that might happen in 12-18 months... whatever about the socially inept Hunger Gamers here, the rest of us want to see our mates and to go for a stroll in a park with them.

brick tamland

UK possibly due to extend their restrictions for an extra 3weeks apparently. We wont open too much up until the North do too for fear of 1000s of folks coming over the border. Although I suspect the UK government may reduce restriction at a quicker rate when the decide to do so.

Nermal

DeVore wrote: »

So, this study basically says "if you arent one of the people at risk... guess what, your risk is low!" Wow. Much insight. Very science.

Not much insight in your reaction.

Quantifying risk is important, valuable science.

We have to mentally counter with data the media anecdotes of young people dying (relentlessly posted on this thread, by the way) with actual statistics.

Admit it, you were surprised by the comparison to short car journeys, weren't you?

El_Duderino 09

ixoy wrote: »

I think that, as it goes on longer, it could well be a majority flaunting these rules. It won't necessarily be them socialising with strangers but with family/friends at closer than a 2m distance. They're not going to stay apart until a vaccine is produced and/or herd immunity kicks in.
I certainly can't see how we'll expect over-70s to cocoon for that period and not venture out. Saying "they'll have to" won't cut it with how people actually want to live. Sure I see a number of people, clearly over 70, out already.

Yeah those who don't social distance are at greater risk of getting the disease. And more and more people might begin to relax about social distancing and then there would be in increase in transmissions.

Likewise, vulnerable people won't HAVE to cocoon until this thing is over. They don't HAVE to cocoon right now. They will be free to take their chances and accept the greater risk of death if they catch the virus - that's how it is right now as long as they obey the rules.

P.S. I really wish people would start thinking in terms of vulnerable people and not just old people. It's all the people who are particularly vulnerable to the disease.

brick tamland

never_mind wrote: »

They either give us an inch (extend 2k to 15k, let's say) or most people will take a mile and start ignoring all guidance given. You can't tell billions of people to stay in door for a vaccine that might happen in 12-18 months... whatever about the socially inept Hunger Gamers here, the rest of us want to see our mates and to go for a stroll in a park with them.

No chance, I doubt the vast majority of us will ever get a vaccine for this even if one is produced. If one eventually available, I reckon it will be only for High Risk People and over 70s only. Doubt there will be enough to go around for everyone or the facilities for everyone to get it.

Thelonious Monk

KrustyUCC wrote: »

True they weren't

Still crap like that will be used to extend lockdown for the majority doing the right things and if those idiots get sick afterwards some will need hospital and ICUs

There's a doc on C4 tonight called The truth about Traveller crime, imagine RTE showing something like that, would never happen

El_Duderino 09

Downlinz wrote: »

No we don't, it would take 3 years + for 60% infection to be achieved without overwhelming hospitals given our ICU capacity. There's a lot of idiotic takes out there but "we're all going to get it eventually" has to be the most stupid.

There'll likely be a vaccine long before then and even if not this was never a suggested strategy for ebola, SARS or any other deadly virus which are very possible to contain which we've already seen in the east for COVID-19.
The only reason to consider herd immunity is if the prime objective is genocide.

Now this can be classed as wishful thinking. We don't know IF there will ever be a vaccine, let alone when it will come. We also don't even know if it will be similar to the flu where it can cover 25% of the flu viruses in some years. We don't know. When someone telly you they do know, they're not being honest.

3 years might be a good estimate for herd immunity without overwhelming the health system. You need to consider that the health system will be working to grow capacity during this period which allows transmission rates to increase.

And yes, anyone who says "we're all going to get it" is probably wrong. It would be much more accurate to say "at least 2/3 of us will have to get it unless there's a vaccine and a vaccine is a year away IF everything goes to plan"

El_Duderino 09

Just try thinking about this scenario and answering what you think should happen:

We know the virus spreads pretty easily and the current restrictions have only slowed the spread.
Any time we relax restrictions transmissions will speed up again.
The health service must not become overrun.
A vaccine may never be available but might be available in 18 months or 2 years.

How do we proceed over the next 3-5 years?

Do we at any point remove restrictions, go back to normal life with distancing, and allow the virus to spread and the health service become overrun?

I've outlined what I think should happen re managing transmissions to achieve herd immunity and not allow the health service to become overrun.

What do you think should happen? Please include the transmission rates and the health service capacity in your answer.

Downlinz

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Now this can be classed as wishful thinking. We don't know IF there will ever be a vaccine, let alone when it will come. We also don't even know if it will be similar to the flu where it can cover 25% of the flu viruses in some years. We don't know. When someone telly you they do know, they're not being honest.

3 years might be a good estimate for herd immunity without overwhelming the health system. You need to consider that the health system will be working to grow capacity during this period which allows transmission rates to increase.

And yes, anyone who says "we're all going to get it" is probably wrong. It would be much more accurate to say "at least 2/3 of us will have to get it unless there's a vaccine and a vaccine is a year away IF everything goes to plan"

The majority will only be infected if we do absolutely nothing to mitigate it. China and South Korea are down to single digit numbers of cases per day with only a minuscule portion of their population infected.

Ace2007

Nermal wrote: »

I am simply not willing to accept a life of only 'essential activity' until a vaccine is developed. To accept not travelling, not going to the gym, pub, restaurants, cinema or sporting events. I am quite sure that I am not alone.

What are your thoughts for the sick and over 70's? Do they have to restrict their movements as well?

Ace2007

Cyrus wrote: »

read the below for what will be happening here starting 5 May

you can fantasise about a full scale lockdown for the next 18 months all you want but it wont happen

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0415/1130544-coronavirus-europe/

May 5 is only a day, if we have increase deaths/numbers then the "lock down" will continue - i wouldn't be getting worked up over May 5 being a deadline