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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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easypazz

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Maybe or maybe not

I know that local politicians are getting plenty of mail about the restrictions

In a large part the restrictions were so the HSE wouldn't be overwhelmed

I think they are doing as designed

However they are also designed to be temporary

The longer they go on the more unpopular they will become, the more non Covid related health issues will occur

It's a balancing act

The HSE and the government will already have got 22 more additional days and 54 days total of restrictions from the Irish population

Saying we're doing well, flattening the curve, but not where we need to be won't work long term as people will need to see friends, family, relations, those in relationships not living together etc

Politicians will play along for a while, but you can be sure at this stage the discussion all about the format of the reopening which will be rolled out through May.

Ace2007

easypazz wrote: »

Politicians will play along for a while, but you can be sure at this stage the discussion all about the format of the reopening which will be rolled out through May.

So you think if we have on average 25+ deaths a day till the end of April, that everything will start to slowly reopen? Regardless of how busy hospitals/ICU beds are?

easypazz

Ace2007 wrote: »

So you think if we have on average 25+ deaths a day till the end of April, that everything will start to slowly reopen? Regardless of how busy hospitals/ICU beds are?

If things are not improving by then it is clear the strategy is not working so they would need a big rethink.

Based on other countries we should be seeing a marked improvement by then.

It will also depend on the nature of the deaths, if its an ongoing nursing home issue and largely contained there, locking us all down won't make much difference.

Ace2007

easypazz wrote: »

If things are not improving by then it is clear the strategy is not working so they would need a big rethink.

Based on other countries we should be seeing a marked improvement by then.

It will also depend on the nature of the deaths, if its an ongoing nursing home issue and largely contained there, locking us all down won't make much difference.

But our measures aren't as strict as other countries - something you fail to get your ahead around.

These "other countries" being ones that aren't including nursing home number in their figures, and hence always going to be less than actual number?

Something like 48% of deaths are in nursing home settings, which mean the majority aren't?

KiKi III

easypazz wrote: »

Tighter enforcement wouldn't make much difference here.

We live on a small island, we don't have huge cities or thousands of people / trucks / migrants etc. travelling through our country to get between 2 other countries.

Curious as to how you think goods from mainland Europe get here?

Hint: In trucks, usually via the UK.

GazzaL

You can definitely see people are easing up on restrictions whilst still social distancing and washing their hands, lots more people visiting family and friends and returning to work. Good to see people doing this in a sensible manner.

rusty the athlete

So "Cocooning" is a "very strong recommendation" and not legally enforceable. (Fergal Bowers RTE just now). At last some common sense.

marno21

Tony H was answering a question on easing of restrictions there and he said that the NPHET are currently working on a strategy for easing restrictions where restrictions would be examined on their risk of increasing transmission vs economic and social benefit and targeted easing of restriction will take place.

Deeper Blue

GazzaL wrote: »

You can definitely see people are easing up on restrictions whilst still social distancing and washing their hands, lots more people visiting family and friends and returning to work. Good to see people doing this in a sensible manner.

Who's returning to work??

[Deleted User]

Cupatae wrote: »

By we do you mean ireland? our economy doesnt matter a bollock if the big dogs like the US go down. So whether we lock down or not we get the decade you fear so much regardless.

Id wonder, if it was a devastating virus that had a high kill rate on young people would we have such a clamor for no restrictions and the "Let it take its course save our money first" ideology

This is stupid. Of course it matters, the US economy going down would hurt ours. So would locking our own economy down. You realise there are different levels of hurt right? Doing both hurts us more than just the US having issues.

Its not difficult to comprehend this stuff

Ace2007

GazzaL wrote: »

You can definitely see people are easing up on restrictions whilst still social distancing and washing their hands, lots more people visiting family and friends and returning to work. Good to see people doing this in a sensible manner.

How are they doing it in a sensible manner if death rates are increasing along with new cases?

BanditLuke

easypazz wrote: »

Politicians will play along for a while, but you can be sure at this stage the discussion all about the format of the reopening which will be rolled out through May.

You can't be sure.

BanditLuke

GazzaL wrote: »

You can definitely see people are easing up on restrictions whilst still social distancing and washing their hands, lots more people visiting family and friends and returning to work. Good to see people doing this in a sensible manner.

It's good for you to see not everyone

s1ippy

AdamD wrote: »

This is stupid. Of course it matters, the US economy going down would hurt ours. So would locking our own economy down. You realise there are different levels of hurt right? Doing both hurts us more than just the US having issues.

Its not difficult to comprehend this stuff

That's what that person was saying.

GazzaL

NDWC wrote: »

Who's returning to work??

All sorts m8, there's not much you can't get these days.

scamalert

GazzaL wrote: »

You can definitely see people are easing up on restrictions whilst still social distancing and washing their hands, lots more people visiting family and friends and returning to work. Good to see people doing this in a sensible manner.

noticed it a lot after Easter, even checkpoints are off where i live, many more people being active and out about, guess many fed up with cutting their lawns and washing cars, huge demand being outsourced now for paints, plants and gardening that average retail stores wouldn't even carry much if at all.

and theres high numbers being hired in retail as well just to keep up with demand, many small moms and pops suppliers getting contracts with mass retail just to fill in on local produce.

while its small numbers but retail has seen boom like its christmas for last couple weeks each day, so some of them are actually expanding a bit, and providing temp jobs until it goes back to normal.

Stateofyou

GazzaL wrote: »

All sorts m8, there's not much you can't get these days.

From your dealer? :pac:

BanditLuke

GazzaL wrote: »

All sorts m8, there's not much you can't get these days.

Like a Ryanair flight :pac:

GazzaL

BanditLuke wrote: »

Like a Ryanair flight :pac:

Depends on where you're going.

easypazz

BanditLuke wrote: »

You can't be sure.

I am sure.

Asked about the order in which restrictions will be lifted, Dr Holohan says "work is happening as we speak and we will talk about it again when we meet on Friday. Again, it will depend on what has the least impact on the infection rate."

[Deleted User]

I wasn't working today (I work every 2nd day at the moment) and couldn't believe the traffic out and about. It was really busy when I was for my walk earlier. Same walking to the shops at 5pm, a line of traffic almost like rush hour traffic again.

There was a deathly lull over the Easter weekend and I was stopped by 3 different checkpoints in 2 days then coming to and from work. But in the last few days there are absolutely no Gardai around. A definite relaxation of restrictions in this area.

[Deleted User]

There will undoubtedly be some easing of restrictions in early May, unless ICU space is at capacity.

The hope is they'll be able to test 15,000 people per day & have the results within 48 hrs by then.

I imagine there'll be no pubs open unless they go all seated with clear 2m distancing being facilitated or something along those lines. Festivals, gigs & sporting events.... Not a hope for 2020.

Lots of folk seem to be getting increasingly anxious as the severity of this is hitting home.... Initially there was an element of (in some quarters) its only hotel staff & barstaff etc being effected etc so, so be it. But as the widespread implications are being seen folk are getting quite unsettled.

Annabella1

We have the advantage that we will be following behind Denmark Austria Czech Germany and watching their modelling and numbers affected
Gonna be a delicate balance

[Deleted User]

Annabella1 wrote: »

.....
Gonna be a delicate balance

Indeed, we will be 5 weeks into lockdown come 5th May..... Schools etc 7 weeks closed. No point throwing away any advantage gained by those measures via a hasty restart.

Early 70s is young enough these days, we do need to do all that we can to preserve life until there's a vaccine.

Dickie10

afraid we will be having to get used to living alongside this. i think social distancing will be advised but they cant enforce it. pubs will open but they wont have to worry about social distancing as it will happen naturally. there will be small crowds in pubs even if they do open. prob cap numbers coming in the doors. again the government just want to keep ICUs under capacity. we could easily see life back to normal by late june and hear of 10 plus deaths per day. if your waiting to go back to normal life the day we have no deaths you will wait a long time.

bluelamp

Dickie10 wrote: »

pubs will open but they wont have to worry about social distancing as it will happen naturally. there will be small crowds in pubs even if they do open. prob cap numbers coming in the doors.

It will be tough to work out a safe way for the pubs / clubs to operate.

It will be reasonably easy for cafes and restaurants to adapt, less tables, restricted numbers, more outdoor seating in summer, order at the till and collect at the till for staff safety etc. They will adapt.

The sneeze screens, hand sanitiser, one way aisles, and restricted numbers in supermarkets isn't a major inconvenience to anyone so that will continue just fine.

Some of these ideas would work in pubs too, but it would be really difficult to get patrons to comply as the night gets later I think.

El_Duderino 09

Augeo wrote: »

There will undoubtedly be some easing of restrictions in early May, unless ICU space is at capacity.

The hope is they'll be able to test 15,000 people per day & have the results within 48 hrs by then.

I imagine there'll be no pubs open unless they go all seated with clear 2m distancing being facilitated or something along those lines. Festivals, gigs & sporting events.... Not a hope for 2020.

Lots of folk seem to be getting increasingly anxious as the severity of this is hitting home.... Initially there was an element of (in some quarters) its only hotel staff & barstaff etc being effected etc so, so be it. But as the widespread implications are being seen folk are getting quite unsettled.

They may loosen some restrictions to bring transmissions back up to meet ICU capacity, but I’d expect it to be temporary.

Zero chance of recreational business opening - pubs are miles away from opening. Agree that gigs etc are off for the year and until we have herd immunity one way or the other.

I agree some people are getting anxious. That’s probably why the government keeps stringing it along by a couple of weeks at a time. Reality is this is here for years until we have herd Immunity through either a vaccine or surviving the disease.

The notion of this thing being over in a few weeks or a month is completely based in wishful thinking. Thinking about it for 5 minutes will tell you that.

khalessi

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

They may loosen some restrictions to bring transmissions back up to meet ICU capacity, but I’d expect it to be temporary.

Why bring transmissions up the aim is to stay below and not overwhelm

Loafing Oaf

khalessi wrote: »

Why bring transmissions up the aim is to stay below and not overwhelm

He believes that the government wants to achieve herd immunity in a controlled way and so is trying to get more people infected, but not too many at a time.

pgj2015

I read some article earlier about people under 25 being allowed back to play sport, they think this will be one of the first restrictions to be lifted, groups of no more than 30.