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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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[Deleted User]

Downlinz wrote: »

What exactly do you imagine life would be like if all restrictions were removed tomorrow?
The vast majority would continue staying at home and working from home for their own safety. Everything in the hospitality, travel or non-essential retail would open and then shut again a week later, probably permanently this time since they'll have hardly any business and will be unable to pay their staff without government assistance.

The economy is in hibernation at the moment to protect businesses and jobs from the harsh winter outside, opening up now is essentially throwing those businesses to the wolves.

I'd love to know if there's more to this but these suggestions seem like advocating sacrificing both the economy and our people for the 1% who are feeling sad because they can't go to the beach or the pub.

Nice strawman.

No one is expecting restrictions to disappear tomorrow or even this year. But what will happen is a gradual relaxation of measures, as now being discussed by every government and advocated by the WHO.

I’ll certainly be out availing of any relaxation and supporting local retail, cafes and coffee shops

Nermal

Downlinz wrote: »

The vast majority would continue staying at home and working from home for their own safety.

You're wrong. If that was the case, we wouldn't need a lockdown, would we?

IMF projecting GDP loss of 6.8%. €24B.
https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2020/April/English/StatsAppendixA.ashx?la=en

We value healthcare interventions at €45,000 per year of life saved.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26497002

Being generous, let's say we're saving people who have 10 years left to live.

Did we save almost 54,000 people?

This was too expensive.

Downlinz

Deleted User wrote: »

I think the economy is dying at the moment..............

It's being preserved as best we can. What would kill the economy is removing government supports and letting a cautious and frightened market decide.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

1 - because people still need resources in the harsh winter (especially when you have no idea how long said winter will last). If you starve to death because the winter is so harsh you can't obtain food, you aren't preserving life.

2 - the pubs are not reopening any time soon, plus the 1% can drink in other places than pubs.

People already have access to essential resources, we have all we need to see out the winter.

niallo27 wrote: »

For the 8th million time, it's not about going to the pub or the ****en beach its about being able to pay some bills in 3 months time.

How does allowing a deadly virus to ravage workforces help with that? If you're working in a sector deemed non-essential why would you think there's high demand for your product or service in the middle of a pandemic?
Fair enough if that's the case but there are plenty of people here who argue the sole reason to open up for "living" presuming leisure activities.

KiKi III

niallo27 wrote: »

For the 8th million time, it's not about going to the pub or the ****en beach its about being able to pay some bills in 3 months time.

That may be the case for you niallo, but there are plenty of others on the thread who have been clear that getting back to the pub, the beach, or the park is a priority.

KiKi III

suicide_circus wrote: »

Though laudable, I wonder how that opinion varies between people who can work from home and those who's jobs and businesses have disappeared....

In my own social circle, the people who have been hardest hit are the ones who support the measures most. They want an end to the crisis once and for all and would rather take the pain now than do half measures and end up going into lockdown again later in the summer.

thomas 123

lord quackinton wrote: »

The “war will be won” when we decide to let those who want to fight this virus go about their lives as normal

Let those who want to isolate do so too

We cannot ask that the large majority have their lives destroyed to protect the very small numbers who will die from this

Surely even those at risk cannot be so selfish as to demand that 99% of Irish people accept economic depression the likes not seen since the Great Depression

Time to open up

Deaths not the real problem yet(rip to all those who have sadly passed)

1 in 5 edging towards 1 in 4 people who contract covid require hospitalizations.

Now our health service cannot deal with day to day things like minor surgery, simple a & e, or looking after our elderly on wards etc, if we open up watch that death rate climb and climb

Also on a personal note have some respect, the people who need to self isolate built this country and changed your backside.

niallo27

For the 8th million time, it's not about going to the pub or the ****en beach its about being able to pay some bills in 3 months time.

[Deleted User]

Downlinz wrote: »

What exactly do you imagine life would be like if all restrictions were removed tomorrow?
The vast majority would continue staying at home and working from home for their own safety. Everything in the hospitality, travel or non-essential retail would open and then shut again a week later, probably permanently this time since they'll have hardly any business and will be unable to pay their staff without government assistance.

The economy is in hibernation at the moment to protect businesses and jobs from the harsh winter outside, opening up now is essentially throwing those businesses to the wolves.
.

I think the economy is dying at the moment..............

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

Downlinz wrote: »

What exactly do you imagine life would be like if all restrictions were removed tomorrow?
The vast majority would continue staying at home and working from home for their own safety. Everything in the hospitality, travel or non-essential retail would open and then shut again a week later, probably permanently this time since they'll have hardly any business and will be unable to pay their staff without government assistance.

The economy is in hibernation at the moment to protect businesses and jobs from the harsh winter outside, opening up now is essentially throwing those businesses to the wolves.

I'd love to know if there's more to this but these suggestions seem like advocating sacrificing both the economy and our people for the 1% who are feeling sad because they can't go to the beach or the pub.

1 - because people still need resources in the harsh winter (especially when you have no idea how long said winter will last). If you starve to death because the winter is so harsh you can't obtain food, you aren't preserving life.

2 - the pubs are not reopening any time soon, plus the 1% can drink in other places than pubs.

suicide_circus

pjohnson wrote: »

Yeah majority of Irish people find life more important than money. As much as it annoys the greedy. Economy is simply not the priority.

Though laudable, I wonder how that opinion varies between people who can work from home and those who's jobs and businesses have disappeared....

yosemitesam1

SAXA wrote: »

Incorrect.. When we get the R0 under 1 the virus starts to die out as a spreader Weeks or months after our infection levels drop and then our death level hopefully stops . After that lets see.. . China will be the case study for total immunity

That's entirely theoretical at this stage. There's no evidence that this strain won't reactivate and be shed from the recovered population, which is very common in other coronavirus strains.

Downlinz

lord quackinton wrote: »

The “war will be won” when we decide to let those who want to fight this virus go about their lives as normal

Let those who want to isolate do so too

We cannot ask that the large majority have their lives destroyed to protect the very small numbers who will die from this

Surely even those at risk cannot be so selfish as to demand that 99% of Irish people accept economic depression the likes not seen since the Great Depression

Time to open up

What exactly do you imagine life would be like if all restrictions were removed tomorrow?
The vast majority would continue staying at home and working from home for their own safety. Everything in the hospitality, travel or non-essential retail would open and then shut again a week later, probably permanently this time since they'll have hardly any business and will be unable to pay their staff without government assistance.

The economy is in hibernation at the moment to protect businesses and jobs from the harsh winter outside, opening up now is essentially throwing those businesses to the wolves.

I'd love to know if there's more to this but these suggestions seem like advocating sacrificing both the economy and our people for the 1% who are feeling sad because they can't go to the beach or the pub.

Paddygreen

Beware of Greeks bearing gifts.

KiKi III

lord quackinton wrote: »

The “war will be won” when we decide to let those who want to fight this virus go about their lives as normal

Let those who want to isolate do so too

We cannot ask that the large majority have their lives destroyed to protect the very small numbers who will die from this

Surely even those at risk cannot be so selfish as to demand that 99% of Irish people accept economic depression the likes not seen since the Great Depression

Time to open up

It’s not one or the other, save the economy or save lives. The economy is fücked either way.

Tourism is dependent on people from other countries.So are our airlines. Our farmers are dependent on exports.So are other food production companies. So are alcohol companies. So is most of our manufacturing.

We are an export-led economy. Opening up our economy and letting the virus ravage our senior citizens and people with underlying conditions will do fück all good for any of them.

When all the above industries are decimated there’s an impact on how much money people have to spend at the pub or the shoe shop the hairdresser or the nail salon so the Main Street is in trouble too.

People who just want to open the economy up seem to think that’s a panacea and it’s not. We’re in for a recession either way.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

Will Clever Jellybean wrote: »

Imagine being so selfish to think that your life is worth more than another persons entertainment. Absolute scum of the earth, worse than Hitler. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

"Entertainment"..? Eh, we're not just talking about sacrificing a trip to the cinema here.

pjohnson

lord quackinton wrote: »

The “war will be won” when we decide to let those who want to fight this virus go about their lives as normal

Let those who want to isolate do so too

We cannot ask that the large majority have their lives destroyed to protect the very small numbers who will die from this

Surely even those at risk cannot be so selfish as to demand that 99% of Irish people accept economic depression the likes not seen since the Great Depression

Time to open up

Yeah majority of Irish people find life more important than money. As much as it annoys the greedy. Economy is simply not the priority.

m5ex9oqjawdg2i

lord quackinton wrote: »

The “war will be won” when we decide to let those who want to fight this virus go about their lives as normal

Let those who want to isolate do so too

We cannot ask that the large majority have their lives destroyed to protect the very small numbers who will die from this

Surely even those at risk cannot be so selfish as to demand that 99% of Irish people accept economic depression the likes not seen since the Great Depression

Time to open up

Imagine being so selfish to think that your life is worth more than another persons entertainment. Absolute scum of the earth, worse than Hitler. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

Paddygreen wrote: »

Our heros will protect us. There is nobody on trollies anymore. Abracadabra. Masks, gowns and visors PPE. When the PPE Is sorted the war can be won.

So, Paddy, are you going to be locked inside voluntarily until your vaccine is ready?

The **** you are!!

lord quackinton

The “war will be won” when we decide to let those who want to fight this virus go about their lives as normal

Let those who want to isolate do so too

We cannot ask that the large majority have their lives destroyed to protect the very small numbers who will die from this

Surely even those at risk cannot be so selfish as to demand that 99% of Irish people accept economic depression the likes not seen since the Great Depression

Time to open up

[Deleted User]

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Pubs will be amongst the last to open alright

Still not sure the government can afford to keep paying for all in the hospitality sector

Take Killarney

No American tourists

No Hotels

No Restaurants

No Pubs

No concerts

Very little left there

At that stage the local pubs (if any are left), coffee shops, B&B, AIRBNB all along the Wild Atlantic Way will have stopped posting on Facebook for DUBS to go home and not serving them in their shops and petrol stations. They'll be screaming for them to return and spend their money.

Its tourism that created and sustained the Wild Atlantic Way. Be careful what you wish for.
There was too much hysteria about the Easter exodus which actually didn't happen. Too many curtain twitchers. Its Irish people that will help tourism recover in the short to medium term, many of them will be Dubs. (I'm not a Dub

)

SAXA

Paddygreen wrote:

Our heros will protect us. There is nobody on trollies anymore. Abracadabra. Masks, gowns and visors PPE. When the PPE Is sorted the war can be won.

Incorrect.. When we get the R0 under 1 the virus starts to die out as a spreader Weeks or months after our infection levels drop and then our death level hopefully stops . After that lets see.. . China will be the case study for total immunity

Paddygreen

moonage wrote: »

Most of the population is eventually going to become infected with the virus, hopefully resulting in herd immunity.

The trick is to gradually lift the restrictions in a way that doesn't overwhelm the health service.

Our heros will protect us. There is nobody on trollies anymore. Abracadabra. Masks, gowns and visors PPE. When the PPE Is sorted the war can be won.

dundalkfc10

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I dunno, but if social distancing is a thing, you could be right, and then travel is confined to those who can afford it again because everyone has to pay for six seats instead of one. Not sure if the middle seat being removed will comply with the 2 metre distancing either but whatever.

And also, we have to think of recipient countries. Will they be delighted to welcome potential carriers of the virus, or will they impose a quarantine.

I am not even thinking of foreign travel for a long while yet.

I could hold ur hand sitting beside you with the middle seat out of the plane while infecting the person to the opposite side by talking to them

Poster is talking ****e

moonage

Most of the population is eventually going to become infected with the virus, hopefully resulting in herd immunity.

The trick is to gradually lift the restrictions in a way that doesn't overwhelm the health service.

Cupatae

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Truth is none of us know sh1t. Bear that in mind when throwing arguments forcefully at each other ok?

"You got any studies or statistics to back that up?"

Everyone suddenly becomes a philosopher and a master of statistics when they hit boards.:D:D

**disingenuous** is the latest buzz word i see the hip kids throwing around these days...

CalamariFritti

Truth is none of us know sh1t. Bear that in mind when throwing arguments forcefully at each other ok?

Cupatae

castletownman wrote: »

By that logic, I'm just as likely to pick it up in my local Lidl, probably more so as I have noticed very little social distancing when it comes to handling and grabbing around the vegetable aisles.

There is a good chance of it, everyone needs to eat, so large well known superstores with high traffic would have a higher chance than say ur local little store, its a numbers game really, risk vs necessity

The odd few getting it here and there is manageable, the big fear is large amounts of people getting it at once, thus the restrictions.

castletownman

WashYourHands wrote: »

You think people would know by now that they can have and spread the virus without showing symptoms.

I think that pubs will be last to open. I think we could see the gardai restrictions relaxed in the summer meaning we can go exercise outside of 2km. I think older people will be recommended to stay in and stay safe. Restaurants might be allowed to open again with social distancing enforced.

I can't see pubs, gigs or large gatherings opening for a long time.

Maybe they'll tell us to pick a social bubble and stick to it.

By that logic, I'm just as likely to pick it up in my local Lidl, probably more so as I have noticed very little social distancing when it comes to handling and grabbing around the vegetable aisles.

stephenjmcd

JRant wrote: »

Anyone who thinks pubs will be closed until October / November has no idea just how powerful a Lobby group the LVA are. Also, airlines will be throwing cheap flight at people to entice them on.

There will be lots of people willing to sit in a pub with friends they won't have seen in months or jump on a flight in August / September for a holiday.

Some may not like it but those are facts. It's also fairly clear that with over 90% of deaths being people over 65 a lot of people will rightly or wrongly believe it won't affect them, which is pretty much how are brain are hardwired anyway. Otherwise we never set foot in a car.

I'd agree with you on the LVA point.
I think people are missing the point here to that the dept health here are following WHO guidelines, WHO have said themselves today that a social life will have to resume without a vaccine, given that nobody can say with any certainty that one will exist in a year, 18 months or whatever the timeframe might be, in the words of the WHO, life cant be paralysed by the virus. It'll be up to each person to adhere to strict hygiene rules and etiquette.

Denmark and others plan to open restaurants hotels and bars about a month/2 months into the reopening phase so we'll be able to see from their experience.

[Deleted User]

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I dunno, but if social distancing is a thing, you could be right, and then travel is confined to those who can afford it again because everyone has to pay for six seats instead of one. Not sure if the middle seat being removed will comply with the 2 metre distancing either but whatever.

And also, we have to think of recipient countries. Will they be delighted to welcome potential carriers of the virus, or will they impose a quarantine.

I am not even thinking of foreign travel for a long while yet.

Anticipated to be less rows as well, and stricter boarding protocols slowing down turnaround. More limited onboard services, so less ancillary revenue. Plus masks and improved HEPA air filtration. And though it is expected that there will be a global acceptance for the recommencing of international travel relatively soon (to facilitate cross border business / trade as much as tourism) , there will have to be robust (and expensive) insurance / refund schemes in place for if and when an individual country has a COVID 19 spike, and does a short term lockdown.

All said, a huge increase in the cost base against a more limited revenue stream, So only one way that manifests: airline consolidation and fare increases. Back to the eighties, or at least the nineties