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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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hmmm

JRant wrote: »

Anyone who thinks pubs will be closed until October / November has no idea just how powerful a Lobby group the LVA are. Also, airlines will be throwing cheap flight at people to entice them on.

There will be lots of people willing to sit in a pub with friends they won't have seen in months or jump on a flight in August / September for a holiday.

I don't agree. If the virus is still around, and if public health doctors are saying to stay out of pubs, then it doesn't matter what the vitners do. People will not go into pubs.

Business has to follow public health, not before. In fairness to public health doctors, they are clued in about the economic impacts of their decisions, and are often less eager than the public to impose restrictions - I think they'll work hard (worldwide) to open the maximum amount they can, but still restrict the virus from spreading.

Spanish Eyes

Deleted User wrote: »

. Our airline industry forecasts are being modelled on the adoption of social distancing principles....all the middle seats in economy being removed for example. Passenger loads per plane will be substantially reduced. Therefore the pricing model will have to change and the concept of pricing to fill planes to current capacity will be completely out the window. With a maximum load of, at best, 2/3, we are looking at more expensive flights and likely the end, at least in the short term, of regular 20 euro hops to Barcelona and the likes for for the weekend. And many airlines will just not be viable

Who knows. Even the airline industry experts don’t know for sure which model will prevail. But it is one area that will not return to ‘normal’ for a long time (which is probably not a bad thing from an environmental perspective)

I dunno, but if social distancing is a thing, you could be right, and then travel is confined to those who can afford it again because everyone has to pay for six seats instead of one. Not sure if the middle seat being removed will comply with the 2 metre distancing either but whatever.

And also, we have to think of recipient countries. Will they be delighted to welcome potential carriers of the virus, or will they impose a quarantine.

I am not even thinking of foreign travel for a long while yet.

WashYourHands

castletownman wrote: »

And you would be hopeful that people would have enough common sense that if they feel poorly or in the vulnerable bracket, they maybe wouldn't venture into crowds until its safe to do so.

None of the places listed above are essential as you say, and I know that if ever had a dose on me before, going out for pints or for a meal would be the least of my worries. We all have missed night outs etc due to feeling unwell.

I think some people are assuming that EVERYONE will stream into pubs and other premises en masse as soon as the green light is given. In reality, that's not the case. With some common sense, I don't see how they would be that much of a petri dish for infection if managed right.

You think people would know by now that they can have and spread the virus without showing symptoms.

I think that pubs will be last to open. I think we could see the gardai restrictions relaxed in the summer meaning we can go exercise outside of 2km. I think older people will be recommended to stay in and stay safe. Restaurants might be allowed to open again with social distancing enforced.

I can't see pubs, gigs or large gatherings opening for a long time.

Maybe they'll tell us to pick a social bubble and stick to it.

JRant

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Pubs will be amongst the last to open alright

Still not sure the government can afford to keep paying for all in the hospitality sector

Take Killarney

No American tourists

No Hotels

No Restaurants

No Pubs

No concerts

Very little left there

You left out

No Dubs

JRant

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Fair enough. Can't see social distancing in a pub working though, sure it's the whole reason for a pub isn't it, you know to be social and close up?

But those without symptoms are spreading it too, like the kids, and schools were closed before the pubs were (I think!).

But anyway, everyone can make their own decisions about risk and all that when things open again, was just saying my piece.

Schools and creches should be eased back in from May I would say. Pubs and restaurants a month or two after that.

[Deleted User]

I think that flights will get going faster than people anticipate, but the model will be different. I work for a major international research and data company, whose research reports are fundamental to a lot of market participants. Our airline industry forecasts are being modelled on the adoption of social distancing principles....all the middle seats in economy being removed for example. Passenger loads per plane will be substantially reduced. Therefore the pricing model will have to change and the concept of pricing to fill planes to current capacity will be completely out the window. With a maximum load of, at best, 2/3, we are looking at more expensive flights and likely the end, at least in the short term, of regular 20 euro hops to Barcelona and the likes for for the weekend. And many airlines will just not be viable

Who knows. Even the airline industry experts don’t know for sure which model will prevail. But it is one area that will not return to ‘normal’ for a long time (which is probably not a bad thing from an environmental perspective)

Spanish Eyes

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Pubs will be amongst the last to open alright

Still not sure the government can afford to keep paying for all in the hospitality sector

Take Killarney

No American tourists

No Hotels

No Restaurants

No Pubs

No concerts

Very little left there

It will be tough alright, and not just confined to Killarney either.

The longer it goes on, the more people will just say Feck It, and go ahead.

I'm not sure I would be so confident myself, but hey ho. That's just me.

BACK and tan lol.

KrustyUCC

Pubs will be amongst the last to open alright

Still not sure the government can afford to keep paying for all in the hospitality sector

Take Killarney

No American tourists

No Hotels

No Restaurants

No Pubs

No concerts

Very little left there

Spanish Eyes

castletownman wrote: »

And you would be hopeful that people would have enough common sense that if they feel poorly or in the vulnerable bracket, they maybe wouldn't venture into crowds until its safe to do so.

None of the places listed above are essential as you say, and I know that if ever had a dose on me before, going out for pints or for a meal would be the least of my worries. We all have missed night outs etc due to feeling unwell.

I think some people are assuming that EVERYONE will stream into pubs and other premises en masse as soon as the green light is given. In reality, that's not the case. With some common sense, I don't see how they would be that much of a petri dish for infection if managed right.

Fair enough. Can't see social distancing in a pub working though, sure it's the whole reason for a pub isn't it, you know to be social and close up?

But those without symptoms are spreading it too, like the kids, and schools were closed before the pubs were (I think!).

But anyway, everyone can make their own decisions about risk and all that when things open again, was just saying my piece.

JRant

Anyone who thinks pubs will be closed until October / November has no idea just how powerful a Lobby group the LVA are. Also, airlines will be throwing cheap flight at people to entice them on.

There will be lots of people willing to sit in a pub with friends they won't have seen in months or jump on a flight in August / September for a holiday.

Some may not like it but those are facts. It's also fairly clear that with over 90% of deaths being people over 65 a lot of people will rightly or wrongly believe it won't affect them, which is pretty much how are brain are hardwired anyway. Otherwise we never set foot in a car.

castletownman

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The entities that will open slowly and gradually will have to observe full social distancing for a long while yet. There is no other way really.

That's why pubs, clubs, restaurants and foreign holidays will be the last to be unleashed. The recipient countries of foreign holidays, much as they may wish to regenerate their tourism are in the same boat re social distancing. I wish it were different, but I can't see it yet.

I will hold my hand up and say I would be reluctant to mingle in crowds, pubs, airplanes for a while. I am not alone.

And you would be hopeful that people would have enough common sense that if they feel poorly or in the vulnerable bracket, they maybe wouldn't venture into crowds until its safe to do so.

None of the places listed above are essential as you say, and I know that if ever had a dose on me before, going out for pints or for a meal would be the least of my worries. We all have missed night outs etc due to feeling unwell.

I think some people are assuming that EVERYONE will stream into pubs and other premises en masse as soon as the green light is given. In reality, that's not the case. With some common sense, I don't see how they would be that much of a petri dish for infection if managed right.

Spanish Eyes

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

The fun stuff will definitely be the last to open as you have said.

When it's all over though....

Love it.

We need cheering up and all that. But have to be realistic too I suppose.

Ulysses Gaze

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The entities that will open slowly and gradually will have to observe full social distancing for a long while yet. There is no other way really.

That's why pubs, clubs, restaurants and foreign holidays will be the last to be unleashed. The recipient countries of foreign holidays, much as they may wish to regenerate their tourism are in the same boat re social distancing. I wish it were different, but I can't see it yet.

I will hold my hand up and say I would be reluctant to mingle in crowds, pubs, airplanes for a while. I am not alone.

The fun stuff will definitely be the last to open as you have said.

When it's all over though....

Spanish Eyes

The entities that will open slowly and gradually will have to observe full social distancing for a long while yet. There is no other way really.

That's why pubs, clubs, restaurants and foreign holidays will be the last to be unleashed. The recipient countries of foreign holidays, much as they may wish to regenerate their tourism are in the same boat re social distancing. I wish it were different, but I can't see it yet.

I will hold my hand up and say I would be reluctant to mingle in crowds, pubs, airplanes for a while. I am not alone.

celt262

Dickie10 wrote: »

i think your in the fantasy land lad! People have to realize were going to be living with this for maybe 18 months, do you think pubs, shops, restaurunts will shut til we get 0 deaths and 0 cases? thats akin to saying we would have to shut everything until we 0 deaths from winter flu epidemic, its a disease/virus like any other , all these restrictions are to flatten the curve, to get over the surge so our ICUs can cope, they will cope with a few deaths a day ad maybe 50-90 cases a day no problem. we will develop herd immunity too so probably wont get a second huge surge maybe an aftershock slight jump thats all. Again government will advise those vulnerable to cocoon still and those out in public to social distance. you can easily social distance in a bi pub limited to 70 people. smaller pubs can limit to 20, it can go by sq. meters per pub the bigger the more are admitted.

Cant wait to go and shout all night at my friends who are lining the bar the furthest 12m away.

Ulysses Gaze

Dickie10 wrote: »

i think your in the fantasy land lad! People have to realize were going to be living with this for maybe 18 months, do you think pubs, shops, restaurunts will shut til we get 0 deaths and 0 cases? thats akin to saying we would have to shut everything until we 0 deaths from winter flu epidemic, its a disease/virus like any other , all these restrictions are to flatten the curve, to get over the surge so our ICUs can cope, they will cope with a few deaths a day ad maybe 50-90 cases a day no problem. we will develop herd immunity too so probably wont get a second huge surge maybe an aftershock slight jump thats all. Again government will advise those vulnerable to cocoon still and those out in public to social distance. you can easily social distance in a bi pub limited to 70 people. smaller pubs can limit to 20, it can go by sq. meters per pub the bigger the more are admitted.

Much as I'd murder a pint of Stout now, not a chance in hell pubs will be opened before October.

There is also no chance that any pub in a major town in Ireland is going to enforce any kind of proper social distancing seriously. They may say they are. But saying and reality are wildly different things.

No, a lot of the economy will re-open but all the fun stuff will remain closed.

We can still drink cans at home for a few months. Not fun, but that's what we are faced with.

Harry Palmr

Ireland has the advantage of being able to watch the likes of Austria, Denmark et al they are the canary in the coalmine of infection.

Pub culture is going to be changed utterly in any event until a vaccine is shown to be viable and effective over the medium to long term.

Cork Boy 53

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Pubs will be the very last thing opened. As well as restaurants.

Probably October or November at the earliest.

Restaurants may be allowed to reopen with strict social distancing rules in place in the autumn. I can`t see pubs being allowed to reopen until 2021.

Dickie10

i think your in the fantasy land lad! People have to realize were going to be living with this for maybe 18 months, do you think pubs, shops, restaurunts will shut til we get 0 deaths and 0 cases? thats akin to saying we would have to shut everything until we 0 deaths from winter flu epidemic, its a disease/virus like any other , all these restrictions are to flatten the curve, to get over the surge so our ICUs can cope, they will cope with a few deaths a day ad maybe 50-90 cases a day no problem. we will develop herd immunity too so probably wont get a second huge surge maybe an aftershock slight jump thats all. Again government will advise those vulnerable to cocoon still and those out in public to social distance. you can easily social distance in a bi pub limited to 70 people. smaller pubs can limit to 20, it can go by sq. meters per pub the bigger the more are admitted.

Ulysses Gaze

Dickie10 wrote: »

To be honest i think anyone that believes that the country will be in lockdown or under tight restriction after mid june is taking it a bit far. I believe constuction sites will be back by mid may. most shops and shopping centres by late may and pubs and restaurunts by mid june. social distancing will be the by word and the get out of jail card. pubs will limit to 70-80 max, but they will be opened. all sports event prob cancelled til sept. over 70s will be advised to cocoon until further notice but it will be up to people. the government know they cant get to 0 deaths or 0 cases and wont try, we will have to live with this not beat it. i think once the governement get through this current surge in next 4 weeks things will lift and they will lift quite quickly. it will be up to people to continue thier own restrictions if they feel they want to. there will be work from home options available to everyone they can i would imagine. i suppose if those vulnerable to the disease continue to cocoon then very gently people can get back to normal and herd immunity should do the rest. this talk of everything locked down til october is crazy

Pubs will be the very last thing opened. As well as restaurants.

Probably October or November at the earliest.

Spencer Brown

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Pubs and restaurants open by mid June? You`re living in fantasy land if you think that will happen.

Do you ever have anything positive to say?

timmy_mallet

Tenzor07 wrote: »

You're right, human trials in September, and perhaps a release in early 2021...

https://www.genengnews.com/news/jj-eyes-september-trial-for-covid-19-vaccine-commits-to-expanded-1b-barda-partnership/

I get worried when I read approved for "emergency use...".

Cork Boy 53

Dickie10 wrote: »

To be honest i think anyone that believes that the country will be in lockdown or under tight restriction after mid june is taking it a bit far. I believe constuction sites will be back by mid may. most shops and shopping centres by late may and pubs and restaurunts by mid june. social distancing will be the by word and the get out of jail card. pubs will limit to 70-80 max, but they will be opened. all sports event prob cancelled til sept. over 70s will be advised to cocoon until further notice but it will be up to people. the government know they cant get to 0 deaths or 0 cases and wont try, we will have to live with this not beat it. i think once the governement get through this current surge in next 4 weeks things will lift and they will lift quite quickly. it will be up to people to continue thier own restrictions if they feel they want to. there will be work from home options available to everyone they can i would imagine. i suppose if those vulnerable to the disease continue to cocoon then very gently people can get back to normal and herd immunity should do the rest. this talk of everything locked down til october is crazy

Pubs and restaurants open by mid June? You`re living in fantasy land if you think that will happen.

timmy_mallet

racso1975 wrote: »

Surely you mean vaccinated and not. As opposed to infect given that does not guarantee immunity

Well, that's a worrying insight. Vaccination is not immunisation.

Tenzor07

Rather than saying Lockdown should be lifted in May, June or October... It would be better to say it should be lifted the day the number of new cases has been zero for the past two weeks.

Now what we're seeing is two of the worst affected countries, Spain/Italy, with the highest deaths in Europe/the world unlocking parts of their economies, seems crazy!

Dickie10

To be honest i think anyone that believes that the country will be in lockdown or under tight restriction after mid june is taking it a bit far. I believe constuction sites will be back by mid may. most shops and shopping centres by late may and pubs and restaurunts by mid june. social distancing will be the by word and the get out of jail card. pubs will limit to 70-80 max, but they will be opened. all sports event prob cancelled til sept. over 70s will be advised to cocoon until further notice but it will be up to people. the government know they cant get to 0 deaths or 0 cases and wont try, we will have to live with this not beat it. i think once the governement get through this current surge in next 4 weeks things will lift and they will lift quite quickly. it will be up to people to continue thier own restrictions if they feel they want to. there will be work from home options available to everyone they can i would imagine. i suppose if those vulnerable to the disease continue to cocoon then very gently people can get back to normal and herd immunity should do the rest. this talk of everything locked down til october is crazy

normanoffside

racso1975 wrote: »

Surely you mean vaccinated and not. As opposed to infect given that does not guarantee immunity

You do know what a vaccination is right?

Because if having had the disease does not give you any immunity then a vaccination sure won't.

racso1975

Kivaro wrote: »

But don't you want her to be unclean though i.e. to have had the virus, so she cannot pass it onto you.

Funny you bring it up, because that's how the question formulated in my head. Imagine meeting someone you fancied and after a few drinks (2 metres apart) ...... and you now want to swap spit :eek:. How can you tell if the other person is immune? Will they be wearing a "safe" badge? Many of us, young and old, might not know of an underlying health condition, so it really may be a matter of life and death.
There needs to be something fairly fail-safe to distinguish between the immune and those not previously infected.

Surely you mean vaccinated and not. As opposed to infect given that does not guarantee immunity

[Deleted User]

Kivaro wrote: »

But don't you want her to be unclean though i.e. to have had the virus, so she cannot pass it onto you.

Funny you bring it up, because that's how the question formulated in my head. Imagine meeting someone you fancied and after a few drinks (2 metres apart) ...... and you now want to swap spit :eek:. How can you tell if the other person is immune? Will they be wearing a "safe" badge? Many of us, young and old, might not know of an underlying health condition, so it really may be a matter of life and death.
There needs to be something fairly fail-safe to distinguish between the immune and those not previously infected.

Seems pretty straightforward to me. As soon as you kiss someone you become a unit. Need to immediately move in together and might as well get married.

Jurgen Klopp

Kivaro wrote: »

But don't you want her to be unclean though i.e. to have had the virus, so she cannot pass it onto you.

Funny you bring it up, because that's how the question formulated in my head. Imagine meeting someone you fancied and after a few drinks (2 metres apart) ...... and you now want to swap spit :eek:. How can you tell if the other person is immune? Will they be wearing a "safe" badge? Many of us, young and old, might not know of an underlying health condition, so it really may be a matter of life and death.
There needs to be something fairly fail-safe to distinguish between the immune and those not previously infected.

Ya dirty fecker! In fairness I thought the same the other night :pac: