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Sweden avoiding lockdown

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  • #362
    Rodin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭Rodin


    ILoveYourVibes wrote: »
    Sweden has 10k cases a population of 10 million and 900 deaths.

    We have a populations of 6 million 10k cases and about 365 deaths

    Their health system was ruled by the global health security index to be one of the most prepared countries for a pandemic though.

    They ranked 7th overall.

    If you don't test you won't pick up positive cases.


  • #363
    conorhal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,061 ✭✭✭conorhal


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Even people in Sweden are calling it the "great experiment." I'm happy not to be in a situation where I'm feeling like a lab rat.


    The Swedes are fond of such great experiments. They were still sterilizing 'untermensch' up until the mid 70's and they're great fans of the state euthanizing people for any old reason.

    Sweden, for all the lauding of it's 'progressive values' are a society in general that have a Nazi level of fondness for eugenics that's never quite gone away.


  • #364
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,094 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    loyatemu wrote: »
    IHME are predicting 18K deaths for Sweden and that their outbreak won't peak until well into May if they continue with their no-restrictions policy. https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden

    For comparison they're predicting 500 deaths for Ireland (a figure that has increased in recent days, though we're past our predicted peak). https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland

    We are past our predicted peak FOR THIS WAVE. As best we can tell from the stats, most people haven't been infected yet. Open things up again and see what happens.


  • #365
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 1,766 ✭ [Deleted User]


    loyatemu wrote: »
    IHME are predicting 18K deaths for Sweden and that their outbreak won't peak until well into May if they continue with their no-restrictions policy. https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden

    For comparison they're predicting 500 deaths for Ireland (a figure that has increased in recent days, though we're past our predicted peak). https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland

    IHME are making it up as they go along.

    These were the people predicting 66,000 deaths in the UK. hastily amended to 23,000, ie divided by 3 in the space of a week.

    They are predicting fewer deaths in Italy than have already taken place, assuming that there is a degree of under-reporting in every major European country.

    They don't have a huge amount of credibility on this topic, I am amazed people are still quoting their predictions as if they mean something.


  • #366
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 43,180 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/irelands-swift-action-leaves-uk-facing-questions-over-its-coronavirus-strategy-gwpkpzq3q

    good to see ireland getting some international praise for our actions


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  • #367
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,558 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    STB. wrote: »
    No. There are 500 ICU beds IN TOTAL for the whole country and that includes private.

    And No, ICU numbers have not went down. They have went UP. Right Now, 148 of patients have Covid-19 in ICU with another 127 non-Covid patients in ICU. That's over half of the ICU beds taken.

    No. The measures were only to ensure that our limited ICU can cope. We have managed to do that by shutting stuff down. There will be no reopenings "if they want to". The whole idea was to slow it down. Not speed it up. It hasn't went away, all that's happened is people have been removed from mass contagion spreading areas. Work and other people.

    Up to 800 beds was the figure given in the news conference yesterday, they also said there were less people in ICU than the previous day with covid


  • #368
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,094 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/irelands-swift-action-leaves-uk-facing-questions-over-its-coronavirus-strategy-gwpkpzq3q

    good to see ireland getting some international praise for our actions

    Fake news. There is no source quoted here, just some opinion piece. So we can dismiss it. Or do you hold different standards when you quote something?


  • #369
    loyatemu
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,663 ✭✭✭✭loyatemu


    Deleted User wrote: »
    IHME are making it up predicting as they go along.


    they're revising their predictions as new figures become available, it's inevitably not going to be that accurate as every country is reporting in different ways and the actual death and infection rates for the virus are not confirmed. At the same time they've revised the UK figures down, they've moved the Swedish figures up, but if the Swedes introduce more restrictions they'll revise them again I suppose.
    soupandpoitin wrote:
    We are past our predicted peak FOR THIS WAVE. As best we can tell from the stats, most people haven't been infected yet. Open things up again and see what happens.

    you're basically saying the same number will die but over a longer period, I don't think that's the case. If the infection rate goes below 1 the outbreak will peter out. Sure we'll get another outbreak but you would hope we'll have learned enough to get future outbreaks under control quicker, and a vaccine should be available within a year. If there was no prospect of a vaccine, then yeah, everyone would eventually get it, but the death rate would still be lower as we wouldn't have people dying due to a lack of ICU capacity.


  • #370
    Danno
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/irelands-swift-action-leaves-uk-facing-questions-over-its-coronavirus-strategy-gwpkpzq3q

    good to see ireland getting some international praise for our actions

    What is the obsessiveness about in this country in seeking validation from international peers?

    Also, we didnt go into lockdown "nearly two weeks" ahead of the UK as the opening salvo in that article stated.

    Pubs and clubs closed here on March 16th. It was March 23rd in the UK. So, the article is wrong from the get-go...

    This all seems to have flared up from an Elaine Doyle tweet over the weekend which was littered with inaccuracies, but it suited the lazy MSM to take another twitter rant as some sort of investigative journalism piece.


  • #371
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 43,180 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Fake news. There is no source quoted here, just some opinion piece. So we can dismiss it. Or do you hold different standards when you quote something?

    did you not read the article i quoted :D:D:D:D


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  • #372
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 43,180 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Danno wrote: »
    What is the obsessiveness about in this country in seeking validation from international peers?

    Also, we didnt go into lockdown "nearly two weeks" ahead of the UK as the opening salvo in that article stated.

    Pubs and clubs closed here on March 16th. It was March 23rd in the UK. So, the article is wrong from the get-go...

    This all seems to have flared up from an Elaine Doyle tweet over the weekend which was littered with inaccuracies, but it suited the lazy MSM to take another twitter rant as some sort of investigative journalism piece.

    for you:
    As the scale of the crisis dawned last month, Ireland and Britain took different approaches. On March 9 the Irish government cancelled all St Patrick’s Day parades, which were to have taken place the following week. Mr Varadkar said on March 12 that schools and colleges would close, and banned indoor gatherings of more than 100 people. By March 15 pubs were closed as well.

    Boris Johnson waited until March 20 to shut schools and order pubs, cafés, restaurants, bars and gyms to close. Three days later he announced restrictions on people’s movement. Asked on March 12 about the contrasts with Ireland, Mr Johnson’s spokesman had said: “We follow our own advice, they will do the same.”

    Relative to the population, Ireland is also testing far more for the virus. On Saturday it processed nearly 8,000 tests, using German laboratories. The UK, which has a population more than ten times the size of Ireland’s, processed 18,000.


  • #373
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,094 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    did you not read the article i quoted :D:D:D:D

    It's behind a paywall. We aren't all rich like you with subscriptions to lots of international media.


  • #374
    Danno
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Holding Borris and company to account using a twitter rant as a source of your investigative journalism does not reflect as professionalism from the MSM industry.

    Over the water the MSM got burnt by Fauci just last night - yet the MSM learns nothing.


  • #375
    STB.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,380 ✭✭✭STB.


    Deleted User wrote: »
    We are past our predicted peak FOR THIS WAVE. As best we can tell from the stats, most people haven't been infected yet. Open things up again and see what happens.


    NO WE ARE NOT.
    Widdensushi wrote: »
    Up to 800 beds was the figure given in the news conference yesterday, they also said there were less people in ICU than the previous day with covid

    800 ICU beds ? There are 500. (EDIT I have read the article - Their plan is to scale up to 812. They don't have 812, nor the staff trained nor the ventilators. You are listening to what you want to hear.

    How many less ? One day is not a stat (and I am going to check it).


  • #376
    STB.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,380 ✭✭✭STB.


    Sobering.


    Sweden are in serious trouble. As if the complete testing mess isn't enough, household contacts of cases do not need to quarantine in Sweden. Their hospitals already becoming overwhelmed. They have 5.8 ICU beds per 100k. Not good.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-doctor-death-certificates-latest-a9462796.html


  • #377
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,094 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    STB. wrote: »
    NO WE ARE NOT.

    We don't really know for sure, but it looks like we are.


  • #378
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 43,180 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Deleted User wrote: »
    It's behind a paywall. We aren't all rich like you with subscriptions to lots of international media.

    ive quoted the opening paragraph above.

    and in the interest of balance, it isnt a gushing piece.... the author does quote a couple of sources which make the point that just because approaches are different, doesnt make one of the more right than the other.

    similar to the swedish approach... it will have its critics (like me), and its supporters..... and its good to debate these things out... nd call out what both sides see as wrong on the other.

    there an interesting little quote in this piece which does show the startling difference in approaches between UK and ireland...
    While Cheltenham was going ahead, and over 250,000 people were gathering in what would have been a massive super-spreader event, Ireland had cancelled St Patrick’s Day.


  • #379
    begbysback
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,910 ✭✭✭begbysback


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/irelands-swift-action-leaves-uk-facing-questions-over-its-coronavirus-strategy-gwpkpzq3q

    good to see ireland getting some international praise for our actions

    Not sure why reports are quoting deaths per cases as ratio of deaths per 100k, the stat is completely irrelevant as no country has an accurate count on cases.


  • #380
    virginmediapls
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 325 ✭✭virginmediapls


    Deleted User wrote: »
    We don't really know for sure, but it looks like we are.

    That's not what they have been saying on the news the past few days.


  • #381
    jim-mcdee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 373 ✭✭jim-mcdee


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    We don't really know for sure, but it looks like we are.

    Exactly. The confirmed cases of today, the tests were actually taken god knows when.


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  • #382
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,094 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    STB. wrote: »
    Sobering.


    Sweden are in serious trouble. As if the complete testing mess isn't enough, household contacts of cases do not need to quarantine in Sweden. Their hospitals already becoming overwhelmed. They have 5.8 ICU beds per 100k. Not good.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-doctor-death-certificates-latest-a9462796.html

    Again they quote absolute deaths as opposed to deaths per 1M of population. On this metric, they are still in trouble, at 91, whereas Ireland are not far behind at 74.

    I wonder do they count deaths in the dishonest way they do in the UK, excluding care homes, which account for over half the deaths here, and doing minimal testing which means that many who die from corona weren't tested so therefore aren't included in the stats?


  • #383
    STB.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,380 ✭✭✭STB.


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Again they quote absolute deaths as opposed to deaths per 1M of population. On this metric, they are still in trouble, at 91, whereas Ireland are not far behind at 74.

    I wonder do they count deaths in the dishonest way they do in the UK, excluding care homes, which account for over half the deaths here, and doing minimal testing which means that many who die from corona weren't tested so therefore aren't included in the stats?


    Absolute deaths are the only numbers that count and the universal way of presenting them. You cannot look at numbers on a cold per million basis. This is not a stock check, its the lives of people lost.

    919 people are dead in Sweden, that's more than all the other Nordic countries combined.


  • #384
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 43,180 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Deleted User wrote: »

    I wonder do they count deaths in the dishonest way they do in the UK, excluding care homes, w?

    do you mean here in ireland? its been confirmed we count nursing home deaths


    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/nursing-home-residents-make-up-more-than-half-of-irelands-covid-19-toll-993501.html

    or if you are referring to sweden, no they do not


  • #385
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,094 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    STB. wrote: »
    Absolute deaths are the only numbers that count and the universal way of presenting them. You cannot look at numbers on a cold per million basis. This is not a stock check, its people lives.

    919 people are dead in Sweden, that's more than all the other Nordic countries combined.

    In the UK they don't count deaths in care homes, whereas here we do - currently over 50% of our total. This makes even the death rate comparisons unreliable.


  • #386
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,094 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    do you mean here in ireland? its been confirmed we count nursing home deaths


    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/nursing-home-residents-make-up-more-than-half-of-irelands-covid-19-toll-993501.html

    or if you are referring to sweden, no they do not

    Here we do, in the UK they do not. So you can probably double Sweden and the UK death numbers going on our experiences here.


  • #387
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,558 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    STB. wrote: »
    Absolute deaths are the only numbers that count and the universal way of presenting them. You cannot look at numbers on a cold per million basis. This is not a stock check, its the lives of people lost.

    919 people are dead in Sweden, that's more than all the other Nordic countries combined.

    so they are doing fantastic compared to the us who are in lockdown


  • #388
    duffman13
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,248 ✭✭✭duffman13


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Fake news. There is no source quoted here, just some opinion piece. So we can dismiss it. Or do you hold different standards when you quote something?

    Eh, there is a few different people quoted in the article. The overwhelming theme from the UK is we wont know until this is over what was the right course of action.

    Some fair criticism of the UK allowing large events to still go ahead but offset by specialists talking about population density and how London is an international hub etc.

    Free one month trial too


  • #389
    STB.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,380 ✭✭✭STB.


    Deleted User wrote: »
    In the UK they don't count deaths in care homes, whereas here we do - currently over 50% of our total. This makes even the death rate comparisons unreliable.


    Yes. That's convenient isn't it. They have effectively airbrushed the numbers out to hide the government's complacency. The UK haven't been playing ball since day one. Their advisers and politicians should be hung upside down by the balls from the top of Big Ben. They went off on a mad crusade advocating herd immunity, let people do what they want and then realised all too late that their "experts" were wrong. They are in serious trouble.
    Widdensushi wrote: »
    so they are doing fantastic compared to the us who are in lockdown

    No. Sweden are not doing fine, but you know that having read what I have already posted (the clue was in 919 people are dead in Sweden, that's more than all the other Nordic countries combined.). You can ignore it I suppose and think everything is fine, if you wish of course.


  • #390
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,094 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Widdensushi wrote: »
    so they are doing fantastic compared to the us who are in lockdown

    Their numbers are suspiciously low. Not counting care home deaths, not counting people with pre existing conditions, and not testing are 3 ways that you can massage the death numbers. I can't find info on how they do the stats.


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  • #391
    Laois_Man
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    Glenomra wrote: »
    We have been repeatedly advised for decades by commentators on RTE and the Irish times etc to follow what the Scandinavian countries do as regards social policy etc. Not a dickey bird out of them now as Sweden leads the way in dealing sensibly with this virus.


    Widdensushi wrote: »
    so they are doing fantastic compared to the us who are in lockdown

    Who are boards.ie posters to say what's sensible when 2,000 Swedish scientists have signed a petition pleading with their government to enforce a far stricter lock down!

    Neither their lack of testing, nor their death rate of 91 per 1 million is anything to be envious of! A country with twice our population and still less tests and a higher death rate than us - even before you account for the fact that they dont seem to be counting everyone!


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