nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

STB.

niallo27 wrote: »

Can you tell me why it's so low because I genuinely don't know, it makes no sense why nobody is recovering.

Our first positive was the 29th February. The vast majority are in March and April.

It is unknown how long "recovered" patients will remain infectious. The longest observed duration of viral shedding in survivors was 37 days. There are now 91 cases of the virus coming back in South Korea to those that previously had it.

Jenbach110

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That is incorrect.

How?

KiKi III

niallo27 wrote: »

You weren't skiing in Italy by any chance.

I can barely stay upright jogging, never mind on a set of skis. I’ve no interest in Italian football either, if that’s your next question.

I got home the day they asked anyone who had been abroad at all to restrict their movements for 14 days.

growleaves

Huge swathes of retail were closed down by March 20th. I was making mental notes of the holdouts. Almost everything closed by March 23rd.

Spencer Brown

KiKi III wrote: »

Timbuktu. What difference does it make?

The plot thickens.

niallo27

KiKi III wrote: »

I was in self-isolation before the lockdown having returned from abroad.

You weren't skiing in Italy by any chance.

KiKi III

Spencer Brown wrote: »

Abroad where?

Timbuktu. What difference does it make?

Spencer Brown

KiKi III wrote: »

I was in self-isolation before the lockdown having returned from abroad.

Abroad where?

Jenbach110

ixoy wrote: »

I'm fairly sure they meant on a per capita basis though - that's certainly how I took it and that's one of the more important metrics. Assess what percentage of your population is most vulnerable (higher in Italy in the over-65s for example by about 70%) and your ability to cope with it (hospital beds + ICU) and start from there.

They may have meant per capita but they suggested my calculations were incorrect.

So would you agree it would be difficult for Ireland to turn into Italy as regards the effects of Covid because of the numbers of vunerable citizens?

niallo27

STB. wrote: »

They are not testing. They already have a 8% death rate of those they did test. Over 600 dead and 900 critical.

It does matter about positive tests. The testing regime is carried out in conjunction with isolation and contact tracing, and social distancing measures. Done correctly that in turn leads to less contagion, especially at the one time.

There is much disquiet in Sweden where they are pursuing an unproven herd immunity approach at a time there is no vaccine. The only reason their figures aren't higher is that 50% of people in Stockholm are ignoring the government instructions and working from home and practicing social distancing.

Germany and Korea. Germany were not even reporting the cause of deaths as Covid related.

South Korea employed an extreme testing regime from the start, they monitored people coming in and out of the country with temperature guns. They employed smart technology to monitor those isolated. At the end they had tested over half a million people.

As of a few days ago South Korea are now discovering people who are positive AGAIN after previously been told they were negative. This is very worrying for the whole world.

Hang on so you are saying that proper social distancing and working from home has had this massive affect in sweden, isnt this a crucial bit of information.

KiKi III

niallo27 wrote: »

Well I was following the restrictions, it's been a longer for most people. Dont presume we were all disregarding the rules if you were doing it yourself.

I was in self-isolation before the lockdown having returned from abroad.

KrustyUCC

KiKi III wrote: »

There were light restrictions four weeks ago, but people were still seeing their families, going to the beach/ park etc, a lot more people were still going to work.

The lockdown as we now know it has only been in place for 2.5 weeks.

Not everybody was seeing families, going to beaches etc

Outside of work people were asked to limit social interactions

You're discounting 16 days for people not seeing friends, family, grandparents, partners etc

Spencer Brown

niallo27 wrote: »

Well I was following the restrictions, it's been a longer for most people. Dont presume we were all disregarding the rules if you were doing it yourself.

This, drives me insane, this is my 6th week working from home and i've been doing 90% of the measures currently in place for all of those weeks.... because you know it seemed like the right thing to do.

Professor Moriarty

STB. wrote: »

They are not testing. They already have a 8% death rate of those they did test. Over 600 dead and 900 critical.

It does matter about positive tests. The testing regime is carried out in conjunction with isolation and contact tracing, and social distancing measures. Done correctly that in turn leads to less contagion, especially at the one time.

There is much disquiet in Sweden where they are pursuing an unproven herd immunity approach at a time there is no vaccine. The only reason their figures aren't higher is that 50% of people in Stockholm are ignoring the government instructions and working from home and practicing social distancing.

Germany and Korea. Germany were not even reporting the cause of deaths as Covid related.

South Korea employed an extreme testing regime from the start, they monitored people coming in and out of the country with temperature guns. They employed smart technology to monitor those isolated. At the end they had tested over half a million people.

As of a few days ago South Korea are now discovering people who are positive AGAIN after previously been told they were negative. This is very worrying for the whole world.

Would you have a link for the South Korean reinfections?

niallo27

KiKi III wrote: »

There were light restrictions four weeks ago, but people were still seeing their families, going to the beach/ park etc, a lot more people were still going to work.

The lockdown as we now know it has only been in place for 2.5 weeks.

Well I was following the restrictions, it's been a longer for most people. Dont presume we were all disregarding the rules if you were doing it yourself.

STB.

niallo27 wrote: »

The models predict over 10k deaths it's less than 1k, this is why I find it hard to trust the model Harris is using. Its doesn't matter about the postive tests, deaths are the same if you have 100k tests done or 10k done, Germany and korea have proved that. You say sweden hasnt a clue what they are doing, do you think we have an better long term plan here.

They are not testing. They already have a 8% death rate of those they did test. Over 600 dead and 900 critical.

It does matter about positive tests. The testing regime is carried out in conjunction with isolation and contact tracing, and social distancing measures. Done correctly that in turn leads to less contagion, especially at the one time.

There is much disquiet in Sweden where they are pursuing an unproven herd immunity approach at a time there is no vaccine. The only reason their figures aren't higher is that 50% of people in Stockholm are ignoring the government instructions and working from home and practicing social distancing.

Germany and Korea. Germany were not even reporting the cause of deaths as Covid related.

South Korea employed an extreme testing regime from the start, they monitored people coming in and out of the country with temperature guns. They employed smart technology to monitor those isolated. At the end they had tested over half a million people.

As of a few days ago South Korea are now discovering people who are positive AGAIN after previously been told they were negative. This is very worrying for the whole world.

VonLuck

The tone of this thread has really gone sour.

KiKi III

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Why are you discounting the March 12th - 28th restrictions?

It's been over a month not 2.5 weeks

There were light restrictions four weeks ago, but people were still seeing their families, going to the beach/ park etc, a lot more people were still going to work.

The lockdown as we now know it has only been in place for 2.5 weeks.

niallo27

alwald wrote: »

Let's be clear, there is no evidence regarding the above, This is a theory only among other theories such as measures were working or doctors were treating the pneumonia better.

Any scientific research on C-19 to support your statement?

You talk a good game in fairness but could you actually back some of it up please.

KrustyUCC

KiKi III wrote: »

1. We are willing to accept a short-term sacrifice. We’re talking weeks, not decades. If we were six months into lockdown I’d agree with you. It’s been 2.5 weeks.

Why are you discounting the March 12th - 28th restrictions?

It's been over a month not 2.5 weeks

easypazz

niallo27 wrote: »

Can you tell me why it's so low because I genuinely don't know, it makes no sense why nobody is recovering.

He said earlier the incubation period is 28 days, hence 14 day isolation period is pointless.

KiKi III

easypazz wrote: »

The minister for health has said we will have to learn to live with the virus.

Restrictions will be relaxed May 5th.

Suck it up.

We’re all going to be happy when restrictions are eased. You seem to be confused on that.

easypazz

STB. wrote: »

Their will be no measures introduced that undoes the work of those already put in place.

The minister for health has said we will have to learn to live with the virus.

Restrictions will be relaxed May 5th.

Suck it up.

Jenbach110

KiKi III wrote: »

I’m embarrassed for you. You have this so, so wrong and you’re so confident.

Morto.

Lol

alwald

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

By 1919 the virus had run its course and had mutated to become less lethal so the restrictions after the war ended didn't really change anything.

Let's be clear, there is no evidence regarding the above, This is a theory only among other theories such as measures were working or doctors were treating the pneumonia better.

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

This virus will run its course too just like that 'aussie' flu in the winter of 2017-18 did.

Any scientific research on C-19 to support your statement?

niallo27

STB. wrote: »

Refusing to accept the numbers now.

Did you see the recovery figure in there. Its very low isn't it. Why do you think that is ?

Clearly you haven't a breeze whats going on. Don't respond to me again please.

Can you tell me why it's so low because I genuinely don't know, it makes no sense why nobody is recovering.

[Deleted User]

hmmm wrote: »

These restrictions should only exist as long as they are medically required, and need to balance the economic impact. Some people seem to think that the restrictions are inherently good in themselves, and are outdoing each other to pile on more and more restrictions.

I appreciate at the moment the scientists are working to understand more about the virus, and there's a lot we don't know. If it was the case (as perhaps seems likely) that there is minimal chance of viruses being passed on outdoors, then most construction sites should open. If (as seems the case) that it spreads like wildfire indoors in cramped places, Churches, Pubs etc will need to stay closed. Similarly it seems likely that anyone who can work from home should be told to do so, with people strongly discouraged from taking public transport. On the other hand, a manufacturing or food plant with adequate space and ventilation should be able to open. Most retail shops should be able to open if they limit the number of customers inside.

The country and the people involved in these businesses need to know whether they can get back to work. There's nothing nice for most people about lying on the couch not working - people don't have the luxury of nice public-sector guaranteed jobs, they need to get back to work to provide for their families future.

Nice summary. You win boards today (though completion is not great).

easypazz

STB. wrote: »

There are cases of incubation periods of 28 days.

So you are saying 14 day self isolation is useless, and all the experts are wrong?

KiKi III

Basically, our cows are small, and Italy’s cows are far away

https://youtu.be/MMiKyfd6hA0

Professor Moriarty

Jenbach110 wrote: »

So 40 ish deaths a day peak so?

I don't know as I don't know which poster/post. My own take is that when/if this pandemic washes through, deaths per thousand will be as accurate a comparison as any. So maybe they meant that kind of comparison. Even though you can shoot holes in that with quality/availability of health care, population density, testing rates etc.