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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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KiKi III

Jenbach110 wrote: »

Yep Spain has lifted restrictions due to a decline in number's. We have a decline in numbers and we are going to just see what happens.

Its the lack of any semblance of a plan that is an alarming issue. Why not say May 5th but it can be reviewed depending on numbers? ie consistent drop of numbers this week and we might let ye by paint

No, we don't.

Spain's numbers are now decreasing. Our numbers are not decreasing, the rate of the growth is slowing. That's a crucial distinction.

easypazz

average_runner wrote: »

Businesses will open in May. We cant stay in lockdown.

Construction will have to start in May as we have a housing crisis to deal with which will cause more deaths next winter.

average_runner

Lord Trollington wrote: »

There is anecdotal evidence of scores and scores of people throughout the country being referred for testing by their GP only to never having a test carried out .

There was a backlog of 40,000+ people awaiting tests and they changed the testing requirements . This isnt chatter on boards. This is fact. We have no grasp on the true number of cases in the country currently .

We wont have a true grasp on how many have had it and are now immune until there is a test for that also. These figures needing to be as accurate as possible will help us in fighting this thing without a vaccine available .

Its not boards chatter.

Those numbers are now coming, hence the rise in cases reported daily. But when you count for these numbers a few weeks ago, we are now slowing down

Cupatae

KiKi III wrote: »

If that's the truth and the backlog is now down to 11,000 the government has done a really good job of clearing it. It's meant to be totally cleared by the end of the week. https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0413/1130184-coronavirus-ireland/

Check out the numbers on worldometer: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

id take that site with a grain of salt...india less than us come out of it.

average_runner

KiKi III wrote: »

No, we don't.

Spain's numbers are now decreasing. Our numbers are not decreasing, the rate of the growth is slowing. That's a crucial distinction.

They are decreasing when you add the extra numbers from Germany on to last week numbers

average_runner

Cupatae wrote: »

They ll have no choice if the lockdown is extended.

It wont be extended, we got to move on and suicide is something we got to watch now

Jenbach110

KiKi III wrote: »

No, we don't.

Spain's numbers are now decreasing. Our numbers are not decreasing, the rate of the growth is slowing. That's a crucial distinction.

14 deaths, ICU manageable.
Are you quoting positive tests?

KiKi III

average_runner wrote: »

They are decreasing when you add the extra numbers from Germany on to last week numbers

As far as I can see here, numbers have increased every day but one even allowing for the German tests being added in https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/

Hopefully the trend continues but it's too soon to say.

zerosugarbuzz

Lord Trollington wrote: »

We cannot continue to fund the closedown of the country indefinitely.

This is very obvious to so few of us it would appear. In my opinion the sooner we get the vast majority back to work the better.
Hold off on foreign travel for another few months but open up shops, bars, restaurants and other workplaces asap.
Continue to cocoon the elderly and vulnerable for as long as they can take it. It should be their choice, they know the risks.
Ramp up the hospital places to handle what ever comes at them. Herd immunity will have to be achieved, I think sooner rather than later.

Cupatae

average_runner wrote: »

It wont be extended, we got to move on and suicide is something we got to watch now

who says?

robinph

STB. wrote: »

Unfortunately businesses will not be able to open for some time. Otherwise we will be back at square one.

And any sources of mass contagion will be the last to reopen, the same way they were the first to close.

Which businesses can't open?

Pubs can't, cinemas can't, restaurants probably can't unless they start doing take aways instead. New types of leisure and entertainment businesses needs to be thought of.

No reason that most other types of business can't re-open though. Office based businesses can re-open, and no reason they can't be operating now if they did a bit of forward planning. Manufacturing can re-open, but probably have to re-think their processes to require less people in close contact. Shops can re-open, just need more smaller shops with limited number of people inside at a time and less super-massive shopping centres which are no longer viable.

KiKi III

Jenbach110 wrote: »

14 deaths, ICU manageable.
Are you quoting positive tests?

The day before we had 14 deaths, we had a spike to 33. One data point doesn't indicate a trend.

MadYaker

It won't be like flicking a switch on may 5th. The rollout of the lockdown was planned and done gradually and any lifting of restrictions after may 5th will be the same but much slower.

easypazz

average_runner wrote: »

It wont be extended, we got to move on and suicide is something we got to watch now

We also have a backlog of medical appointments and need to build houses before the winter.

alwald

the kelt wrote: »

What is so dangerous about people wanting to return to normality?

It is idiotic at this stage not to understand fully the danger of going back to normality.

Jenbach110

alwald wrote: »

It is idiotic at this stage not to understand fully the danger of going back to normality.

I thinks its more idotic not to understand the dangers of NOT going back to normality

the kelt

alwald wrote: »

It is idiotic at this stage not to understand fully the danger of going back to normality.

That’s true, no one is disputing that. Of course that’s not what I said though.

I said what is so dangerous about people wanting to return to normality?

You do realise there’s a difference in wanting something and doing something?

Cupatae

Jenbach110 wrote: »

I thinks its more idotic not to understand the dangers of NOT going back to normality

I think its more "idotic" to want to go back to normal at the drop of a hat without seeing the lock down through properly and not understanding that all the good work can and will be undone if we jump back to normal cause a few people cant hack it, its **** for everyone but its obviously for the best.

Widdensushi

whatever we go back to ,it won't be normality, it will be a new normality with social distances where possible, hand sanitation etc

alwald

the kelt wrote: »

That’s true, no one is disputing that. Of course that’s not what I said though.

I said what’s dangerous with people wanting a return to normality?

You do realise there’s a difference in wanting something and doing something?

I am not playing with words, and you do realise that wanting a return to normality is the equivalent of not caring about the spread of the disease and all the consequences that will follow.

Xertz

In the medium term we will have a vaccine and we may have drugs that make this disease far, far less deadly in the shorter term.

The current lock down is a firebreak. It's designed to reduce transmission to a level where the virus dies back as it cannot survive without hosts to infect. It's not a bacterial infection that can live in the environment. Without our cells, it dies in days.

We will have to restore some degree of normality after that and we will have to look at reorganising life to be able to work with this threat of COVID-19 in the background, but it does mean massive changes for a time until we can tackle it from a medical point of view.

The choices going forward aren't a continuous lockdown or a total return to normality. They're a mixture of both strategies applied with extreme caution, based on the scientific evidence and practical realities.

The main thing is we do whatever we do with pragmatism and caution and It think that is genuinely what we are doing to date.

There will also be a lot of information coming from small scale reopening here and in other similar countries and we can all share information and experiences on those too and strategies will develop.

I would suspect until well into 2021 we are looking at a 'new normal' rather than a restoration of everything to what it was a few months ago.

Widdensushi

Cupatae wrote: »

I think its more "idotic" to want to go back to normal at the drop of a hat without seeing the lock down through properly and not understanding that all the good work can and will be undone if we jump back to normal cause a few people cant hack it, its **** for everyone but its obviously for the best.

spain is allowing manufacturers back to work, that will be the first step, see how the hospitals are managing after three weeks of that

iamwhoiam

alwald wrote: »

I am not playing with words, and you do realise that wanting a return to normality is the equivalent of not caring about the spread of the disease and all the consequences that will follow.

I want normality , I want to hug my grandchildren , I want to see my friends . I am sure all of us want that but most of us know we can’t always have what we want

Jenbach110

Widdensushi wrote: »

whatever we go back to ,it won't be normality, it will be a new normality with social distances where possible, hand sanitation etc

I have no issue with this. This is just adjustments to social practice.
The current restrictions are indefinitely, that where the issue is for people questioning May 5th. I have no confidence any restrictions will be lifted on May5th, even if a considerable drop in numbers has presented itself

the kelt

alwald wrote: »

I am not playing with words, and you do realise that wanting a return to normality is the equivalent of not caring about the spread of the disease and all the consequences that will follow.

No wanting a return to normality is exactly that, wanting a return to normality.

I know it’s been a while but normality was life before the virus. Life without the virus

So I’ll ask the question again, what is so dangerous about people wanting their lives to return to that normality?

I didn’t state when that should happen or how it will come about, I simply asked what’s wrong with wanting that return?

History Queen

robinph wrote: »

Schools can be opened and maintain a limited social distancing by don't have any school trips, limit interactions between the year groups, staggered break times etc. The teachers can manage to handle keeping apart from each other. That limits the spread immediately through the entire school such that there is more chance of noticing and shutting down that particular school for a couple of weeks. The pupils at the school are generally all going to be from the local area. If there is a rise in cases in that area then shut down the local schools for a couple of weeks.

The risk to the wider community comes from the parents mixing with a wider geographic area on their commutes into work and the time they then spend sat in their offices, they bring it back home, it spreads to another family via school and then to a completely different geographic area from a different family who work in a different town 40 miles in the other direction.

Social distancing is very difficult if not impossible in schools. Classrooms aren't big enough for it. Most of my classes are between 25 and 30 students. Staggered break times presents a supervision issue as well.

Teachers only have one staff room (in most schools) to access photocopiers/IT equipment/have lunch, they need to access this room. It isn't big enough for social distancing either.

What about the movement of 700 or so students through the corridors from classroom to classroom? How do you enforce social distancing there? Students in my school come from 3 different counties.

I appreciate that we need to think outsode the box but with so many older buildings with small rooms and narrow corridors as well as prefabs and shared bathroom/canteen facilities it is very difficult for me to see social distancing working in a school setting.

lainey_d_123

Lord Trollington wrote: »

I don't think most reasonable people would have any issue with 3 months of restrictions if they new there was a road map to exiting.

As it stands we've had restrictions for a number if weeks, extended by a further 3 weeks with no indication of a possible lifting of restrictions and what is required to lift them .

There is a lot of misinformation out there regarding schools not opening again until September. Pubs or large social gatherings not opening until there is a vaccine.
No sporting events unless behind closed doors and hundreds of other scenarios all feeding into making people uneasy and feelings of hopelessness.

If the government and health professionals came out with a road map of what we need to do and where we need to be to reopen in a restricted manner in 3 weeks time I would wager that people would be far far more compliant and hard working towards that goal. As it stands now no one has no where and nothing to aim for.

We're just plodding along with no end game

This.

This is exactly it.

It's not a matter of 'people not being able to stay in for a few weeks', it's having absolutely no idea when this is going to be anything near 'over'. The uncertainty is what's driving most people mental.

If they said 'look, this is going to be three months of total lockdown and after that things will be pretty much back to normal', I'd say most people could buckle down and do it. They'd know they had a defined amount of time to kill, could perhaps take on a project for that length of time - learn a new language to pre intermediate level, learn a few songs on the guitar, write a book, whatever. Now nobody knows if it's going to be days, weeks or months.

Xertz

History_Queen: That's why I would suspect the only way forward on this for a time may be to have reduced numbers of students by perhaps having people in only 1 or 2 days a week.

If you have a class of say 25 in primary school, it may be a case of just having them split into 5 groups of 5 and having them in 1 day a week for a time.

In secondary school, you could look at organising things to reduce density with maybe more density than for younger kids, but it's going to be about prioritising resources where they're most needed.

One example might be to just scrap transition year entirely next year, which would reduce your school population by 1/6th for a start and free up teaching resources. Perhaps those students could be encouraged to keep in touch online and do some kind of safe community projects instead?

We might need to expand the number of teachers for a time, by bringing in people who are on panels / retirees and so on on temporary contracts to allow for lower density too and it could mean finding new spaces to teach too - empty offices for example might be considered?

None of this is going to be ideal or easy and students will absolutely lose out. That's the sad reality of a natural disaster, which is what this is.

All any of us can do is try to mitigate that as much as we can with creative organisation, use of technology and supports.

This situation is just not going to be perfect or ideal in anyway. It's a really nasty mess and there will be serious consequences economically, socially and in all sorts of ways. It's not a war or a tsunami but the consequences are as significant.

Cupatae

I think people need to start looking at this Covid in the same light as a natural disaster like a hurricane or tsunami, there is gonna be damage done, businesses and jobs will be lost, its the sad reality of it...our returning to "normal" wont be "normal".... if we do what some people ask and return to normality tomorrow, the place would be ina heap, hospitals over run ect people out sick ect... it still wouldn't be normal.. we wont have that till we have a vaccine and can fully control it until then we are just doing damage limitation.

alwald

the kelt wrote: »

No wanting a return to normality is exactly that, wanting a return to normality.

I know it’s been a while but normality was life before the virus. Life without the virus

So I’ll ask the question again, what is so dangerous about people wanting their lives to return to that normality?

I didn’t state when that should happen or how it will come about, I simply asked what’s wrong with wanting that return?

The part in bold is what makes it impossible and dangerous at the moment anyway.