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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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KiKi III

Dickie10 wrote: »

july would be fantastic for galway races . pubs in galway will have even bigger numbers that week.

Absolutely not going to happen.

Dickie10

july would be fantastic for galway races . pubs in galway will have even bigger numbers that week.

OMM 0000

Dickie10 wrote: »

i was told by someone who reads up on this a good bit that pubs and restauraunts wont open until november at the earliest is this true? schools not back for the next school year until janaury 2021

I would assume restaurants for takeaway will reopen soon enough, but pubs can't as we already know lots of transmissions happen there (no masks, close contact).

KiKi III

ShamoBuc wrote: »

I would be nearly certain thars its not true. Social distancing will become the norm for everybody. There will be difficulties but it will become the norm. Pubs will have limits set on them with regard to seating and standing, same with restaurants. Schools might have to have some 'stagger' days but 'normality' will resume before 2021.

Almost impossible to do social distancing in a pub. I've actually heard that alcohol hinders people's decision making faculties.

stephenjmcd

pgj2015 wrote: »

my cousin owns a few pubs, she reckons they will be open in July at the earliest.

Had been told the same myself by a publican who would be prominent on LVA committees. It's a wait and see but they're hopefully of July.

ShamoBuc

Dickie10 wrote: »

i was told by someone who reads up on this a good bit that pubs and restauraunts wont open until november at the earliest is this true? schools not back for the next school year until janaury 2021

I would be nearly certain thars its not true. Social distancing will become the norm for everybody. There will be difficulties but it will become the norm. Pubs will have limits set on them with regard to seating and standing, same with restaurants. Schools might have to have some 'stagger' days but 'normality' will resume before 2021.

Cork Boy 53

Dickie10 wrote: »

i was told by someone who reads up on this a good bit that pubs and restauraunts wont open until november at the earliest is this true? schools not back for the next school year until janaury 2021

I would think that if the rate of virus cases stabilises over the summer that schools and colleges will reopen in September. Restaurants may reopen before then but with restrictions in place. Pubs may not open again until 2021.

KiKi III

pgj2015 wrote: »

my cousin owns a few pubs, she reckons they will be open in July at the earliest.

Any chance she'd have a few of us over for a lock-in tonight?

Relax, it's a joke.

fleet_admiral

Dickie10 wrote: »

i was told by someone who reads up on this a good bit that pubs and restauraunts wont open until november at the earliest is this true? schools not back for the next school year until janaury 2021

Current LVA advice is if the HSE approves then early July for pubs. Worst case scenario if the virus worsens is Halloween, however there is another LVA meeting tomorrow

pgj2015

my cousin owns a few pubs, she reckons they will be open in July at the earliest.

Henry Ford III

Dickie10 wrote: »

i was told by someone who reads up on this a good bit that pubs and restauraunts wont open until november at the earliest is this true? schools not back for the next school year until janaury 2021

It's a guess.

stephenjmcd

Dickie10 wrote: »

i was told by someone who reads up on this a good bit that pubs and restauraunts wont open until november at the earliest is this true? schools not back for the next school year until janaury 2021

Not a chance on either front, haven't seen either predictions being mentioned anywhere.

Government sources in papers today's suggesting limited schooling might resume within the next 2 months

niallo27

Deleted User wrote: »

Realistically, it's highly unlikely that there will be any vaccine publicly available until next year.

Totally agree. I'm more optimistic than most here.

Dickie10

i was told by someone who reads up on this a good bit that pubs and restauraunts wont open until november at the earliest is this true? schools not back for the next school year until janaury 2021

Cork Boy 53

OMM 0000 wrote: »

They're clearly wrong though.

Let me ask you this:

How can you explain how there's almost no local transmission amongst countries who obsessively wear masks outside?

Look at China as an example:

No one was wearing masks in Wuhan, and the virus exploded. When everyone in China learnt about this, they all started wearing masks. Massive cities like Shanghai and Beijing, which never went into lockdown, got barely any cases.

So the only difference between Wuhan and Shanghai is people wore masks in Shanghai.

You can actually see in the HSE person's answer that he doesn't understand why people are wearing masks. It's not about preventing you from getting infected, it's about preventing you from infecting others. That's why masks stop local transmission.

Here's a simple video showing how masks stop your germs from spreading:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYJvU81DKgk

I doubt your claim that no one in Wuhan was wearing masks before the outbreak. In fact you seem to be contradicting yourself in your post. People in China and other eastern Asian countries are accustomed to wearing masks in public and generally follow the correct procedures. I doubt the same can be said for the majority people in other countries particularly in Ireland.

KiKi III

niallo27 wrote: »

In reality though only 5% of the population would need the vaccine first off. You do know jnj and regeneron are mass producing from september on their vaccine they think has the best chance.

It's not like pharma companies have a vested interest in rushing an under-tested, unproven vaccine to market...

[Deleted User]

niallo27 wrote: »

I see you know your maths too.

Realistically, it's highly unlikely that there will be any vaccine publicly available until next year.

niallo27

alwald wrote: »

Google, read and analyse and you will find this information from the professor in Oxford University who is heading a UK team developing a vaccine. This is from their last updates on the vaccine.

A quick Google and I found no posts saying they think there will be no vaccine.

niallo27

Ace2007 wrote: »

September that's in 5 months time?

I see you know your maths too.

polesheep

JRant wrote: »

Advising people to harm themselves and others?

Would you ever get over yourself with the sensationalist nonsense. The person said they were struggling and needed someone to talk to. They aren't going around licking each other's faces.

And no, a dictate does not override human nature after a tiny amount of time. There are no laws preventing you from talking to others at a safe distance.

Maybe the government should start building bunkers for the permanently scared and let the rest of us get on with living.

Made my day.

Thanks.

alwald

niallo27 wrote: »

Where did you see this 80% figure.

Google, read and analyse and you will find this information from the professor in Oxford University who is heading a UK team developing a vaccine. This is from their last updates on the vaccine.

Ace2007

niallo27 wrote: »

In reality though only 5% of the population would need the vaccine first off. You do know jnj and regeneron are mass producing from september on their vaccine they think has the best chance.

September that's in 5 months time?

JRant

Stateofyou wrote: »

That's the most selfish piece I've read in a while. That "dictate" is going to override actually as there is now legislation in place to enforce it. Also evolved over hundreds of thousands of years has developed a community, a society in which we must all work together to contribute our small part for each other, in lots of different ways. A global pandemic in which we're asked/required to follow rules so that we can all make it through to the best of our ability is an exceptional time. You shouldn't be openly advising people to potentially harm themselves and others.

Advising people to harm themselves and others?

Would you ever get over yourself with the sensationalist nonsense. The person said they were struggling and needed someone to talk to. They aren't going around licking each other's faces.

And no, a dictate does not override human nature after a tiny amount of time. There are no laws preventing you from talking to others at a safe distance.

Maybe the government should start building bunkers for the permanently scared and let the rest of us get on with living.

STB.

VonLuck wrote: »

I was just reading an Irish Times article where they said that smaller construction sites may also re-open although offices would remain closed for “many months more”, with working from home to remain in place “for the foreseeable future”.

Slightly surprised that the government is already saying this before the end of this additional 3 week period.

You haven't been paying attention to the figures then. We have went from 40 to just under 10,000 cases in a month with a limited testing regime.

There is a degree of crowd control going on with these soundbites. If they are upfront there might be anarchy so you will just have to get used to being drip fed extensions. We have one of the lowest ICU capacities in Europe and cannot take chances.

trapp

JRant wrote: »

It is responsible if you are struggling mentally and need to talk to someone. Not everyone can live like a hermit shut off from society.

Also, who was it designed by? It seems that the modelling we are constantly being reminded of has to date been completely off. That doesn't surprise me in the slightest though. I deal a good bit with computer modelling and any results from them need to be taken with a massive pinch of salt. Forecasting this type of scenario with so many variables is impossible. Look at weather forecasting. Some of the most powerful computers on the planet and scientists with decades of experience can only really get to about 3 days out with any degree of certainty. After that is a craps shoot.

Exactly.

The man from Maynooth seemed very confident in his model but how can he be?

There are far too many variables.

niallo27

alwald wrote: »

You should also observe that scientists say that there is 80% chance of a vaccine and not 100% if you know your maths well enough.

Where did you see this 80% figure.

MadYaker

trapp wrote: »

Can't see that happening for some reason.

Maybe at the beginning but can't picture Irish people all wearing masks rightly or wrongly!

I don’t think we’ll have a choice to be honest, in public anyway. Rather be out an about a bit wearing a mask than be stuck inside all the time.

JRant

Stateofyou wrote: »

It's not responsible though is it, when it's breaking the restrictions that are there for all of us, designed for us to work together in a common goal to reduce transmission. Boo hoo? Wow. Suppose hundreds of thousands woke up tomorrow with that attitude and flouted the rules, telling themselves they all have a very good reason and causing no harm. Where would we be then.

It is responsible if you are struggling mentally and need to talk to someone. Not everyone can live like a hermit shut off from society.

Also, who was it designed by? It seems that the modelling we are constantly being reminded of has to date been completely off. That doesn't surprise me in the slightest though. I deal a good bit with computer modelling and any results from them need to be taken with a massive pinch of salt. Forecasting this type of scenario with so many variables is impossible. Look at weather forecasting. Some of the most powerful computers on the planet and scientists with decades of experience can only really get to about 3 days out with any degree of certainty. After that is a craps shoot.

alwald

niallo27 wrote: »

Well you should observe that most scientists agree that there will be a vaccine, reasons for other corona vaccines not being developed was due to lack of funding as there was no commercial need for it.

You should also observe that scientists say that there is 80% chance of a vaccine and not 100% if you know your maths well enough.

niallo27

Ace2007 wrote: »

It's not going to be over though - why do you think it will just disappear?

Let's save a vaccine is found to work, between trials etc going to take min 12 months - probably 18. Then it has to be manufactured in bulk and rolled out globally - and when that happens, they wont' just have 5 million doses ready to go in Ireland - potentially another year before everyone in the world gets the vaccine - so that's basically 2.5 years away from now.

We need to learn to live and get on with things with this virus, but the best way is to stay in lock down a few more weeks, until the health system can cope and we have a better understanding of how other countries who lift restrictions get on.

In reality though only 5% of the population would need the vaccine first off. You do know jnj and regeneron are mass producing from september on their vaccine they think has the best chance.