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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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Blueshoe

castletownman wrote: »

I don't why they can't acknowledge that for whatever reason some counties are faring better than others, and ease the restrictions to reflect this. For example, it seems that Dublin, Wicklow, Kildare and Cork seem to be the worst affected, so any lock-down would last longer in those areas, with the gradual easing of measures everywhere else after May 5 as cases *hopefully* dwindle.

Ireland is too small to section it off like that. Wouldn't work

castletownman

I don't why they can't acknowledge that for whatever reason some counties are faring better than others, and ease the restrictions to reflect this. For example, it seems that Dublin, Wicklow, Kildare and Cork seem to be the worst affected, so any lock-down would last longer in those areas, with the gradual easing of measures everywhere else after May 5 as cases *hopefully* dwindle.

niallo27

Blueshoe wrote: »

Sunday Indo has the realistic full opening of the economy in July with tiered sectors (different industries) getting back to business before then.

They have other timelines listed too but they paint this as most realistic. First tier ready to go by early may

Most people could get on board with this. A little back every few weeks would be something to aim for.

normanoffside

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Mean is the average.

Median is the middle.

I'm sorry, my OCD won't let me not correct you.

Both are averages.
There are 3 types of average- Mean, Median and Mode.

normanoffside

ShineOn7 wrote: »

To use Reddit speak, explain to me like I'm 5 (or even 10) years old the difference between Median and Mean if you can please

Median is the average I think?

Median in the 'middle' number
Mean is the result of adding them all up and dividing by the the amount of cases.

So to give an example:

1, 9, 50

Median is 9
Mean is 20

Igotadose

Stheno wrote: »

Kiki

Consider the following

1. We've gone from a growth rate of 33% to about 12% to now under 10% in the past month. Today was less than 5%
2. The RO has gone from over 3 to 1ish last week, and is expected to reduce
3. ICU admissions are stable

On top of that regarding testing the results were being held up due to lack of chemicals (buffer and reagent) to process the results

We are now making the buffer and have secured a supply of 900000 samples of reagent

Contact tracing is being ramped up
Additional labs have started to come on stream

I'm hoping all of the above are positive indications and that testing gets ramped up this week and the next so there is an eating of restrict IP ons on May 5

And I'm one of the people who will be working from home if they dont lift that

Personally very uncomfortable with the data we're seeing. If you look at number of cases, they're doubling about every 7 days (data from wikipedia.) Reading various articles about the HSE and how things like setting up contact tracing centres has been bungled, they apparently tried to set one up in Limerick, took a few days of not being able to get e-mail addresses right and then replaced everyone in charge. They've got a new executive in charge of testing who isn't a doctor, but an MBA with some banking experience.

Tests take way too long to come back - many stories of tests being taken and responses not being received for weeks. Anecdotal stories of 1 person with covid who was in contact with 8 others, none of the others were tested in a timely way (tests were taken but they came down with obvious symptoms within a few days, and the tests never came back anyway.)

Sorry, but I think we're not cresting anytime soon, and I doubt the HSE will be able to tell us much that's verifiable and useful. They're handling this about as well as they handle anything, i.e., badly to catastrophically.

niallo27

pjohnson wrote: »

Not if its a decent guy in the first place who does it right.

Ok I'll ask again, how do you expect to fix this right now so as you say the roof doesnt leak again.

Blueshoe

Sunday Indo has the realistic full opening of the economy in July with tiered sectors (different industries) getting back to business before then.

They have other timelines listed too but they paint this as most realistic. First tier ready to go by early may

ShineOn7

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Mean is the average. If you have 9 values, add them all up and divide by 9.

Median is the middle. If you have 9 values, rank them from high to low and pick the middle (fifth) one

Very simple to understand. Thanks

ShineOn7

MaureensFry wrote: »

I suspect middle of May when things start going back to some what normal with a lot of the restrictions been lifted.

My lord above, lamp lightning Jaysus. Give me strength

Time to unfollow this thread for a bit. Some people are dreaming

stephenjmcd

MaureensFry wrote: »

No one is rushing. Restrictions will start to be lifted in a few weeks when the curve starts to flatten with restrictions getting more lenient.

Unfortunately it won't favour the elderly or those with underlying conditions. Once the health service can deal with the number of people who contact it then we are nearly there.

I suspect middle of May when things start going back to some what normal with a lot of the restrictions been lifted.

Middle of may might be a little early. The initial restrictions on some business might be lifted first week of may, hair dressers, cafes doing take outs etc. Give that 2 weeks to see where we're at, then more businesses get added into the services allowed to open. Hopefully by the start of June depending on where we're at you might see what would have been deemed non essential offices start to open.

Depending then on how things are going end of June only then you might see hotels, restaurants & bars being allowed to open but with reduced capacity to start with.

Concerts and sports events, july for small events under 1k, August maybe for those above that but with capacity still limited.

That's all just a guess on my part but it's taking into account the very slow reopening that'll be done in stages followed by a review of the data after each stage to see if we can progress to the next set of reopenings

Padre_Pio

ShineOn7 wrote: »

To use Reddit speak, explain to me like I'm 5 (or even 10) years old the difference between Median and Mean if you can please

Median is the average I think?

Mean is the average. If you have 9 values, add them all up and divide by 9.

Median is the middle. If you have 9 values, rank them from high to low and pick the middle (fifth) one

ShineOn7

Stheno wrote: »

According to Dr Tony Friday, median age of deaths was 80, mean was70 iirc and the range was from 32 to 102

To use Reddit speak, explain to me like I'm 5 (or even 10) years old the difference between Median and Mean if you can please

Median is the average I think?

Stheno

KiKi III wrote: »

How will it change your opinion if tomorrow’s death figure is 40-50? Will it alter your opinion? It seems like your mind is made up one way or the other.

I’d be delighted if the figure stayed at 14 and lower but I don’t think that’s going to be the case.

Kiki

Consider the following

1. We've gone from a growth rate of 33% to about 12% to now under 10% in the past month. Today was less than 5%
2. The RO has gone from over 3 to 1ish last week, and is expected to reduce
3. ICU admissions are stable

On top of that regarding testing the results were being held up due to lack of chemicals (buffer and reagent) to process the results

We are now making the buffer and have secured a supply of 900000 samples of reagent

Contact tracing is being ramped up
Additional labs have started to come on stream

I'm hoping all of the above are positive indications and that testing gets ramped up this week and the next so there is an eating of restrict IP ons on May 5

And I'm one of the people who will be working from home if they dont lift that

MaureensFry

pjohnson wrote: »

So if you wont half ass a roof repair you shouldn't half ass this. A rush to remove restrictions will cause more damage and make the whole thing last longer.

No one is rushing. Restrictions will start to be lifted in a few weeks when the curve starts to flatten with restrictions getting more lenient.

Unfortunately it won't favour the elderly or those with underlying conditions. Once the health service can deal with the number of people who contact it then we are nearly there.

I suspect middle of May when things start going back to some what normal with a lot of the restrictions been lifted.

iamwhoiam

Jenbach110 wrote: »

Well if those are not in isolation now, why arent they?

Because they are not over 70 ?

pjohnson

niallo27 wrote: »

You do know with this analogy, any drop of decent rain the roof will start to leak again. Do you just keep paying the same guy to fix it.

Not if its a decent guy in the first place who does it right.

iamwhoiam

Jenbach110 wrote: »

This is a not the basis of an argument. No one is asking to go to a pub. Being able to buy paint perhaps or travel further than 2km from home.

Nobody want the pubs to be reopened any time soon

Actually the poster I was answering was asking for the pubs to be opened . Hence my discussion on that subject

niallo27

pjohnson wrote: »

So option B. That is what we are doing. Actual repair not a half assed job but proper repair.

You do know with this analogy, any drop of decent rain the roof will start to leak again. Do you just keep paying the same guy to fix it.

Jenbach110

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Good luck with getting back to normal if you lock up all the over 60’s
Teachers , nurses , doctors , etc etc many many 60 year old are fully functioning part of society

Well if those are not in isolation now, why arent they?

pjohnson

niallo27 wrote: »

B obviously but unlike your roof, this virus can not be fixed completely asap.

So if you wont half ass a roof repair you shouldn't half ass this. A rush to remove restrictions will cause more damage and make the whole thing last longer.

normanoffside

irishgeo wrote: »

The lockdown restrictions should be showing in the cases now after we get rid of the German backlog.

If they have more tests we can only assume that there will be more positives as cases that would have previously been missed are found.

We can only hope to see a slow down in deaths and ICU/Hospitalised cases.

Jenbach110

iamwhoiam wrote: »

If you allow one whole group off to the pub you only increase the period of isolation for the other group

This is a not the basis of an argument. No one is asking to go to a pub. Being able to buy paint perhaps or travel further than 2km from home.

Nobody want the pubs to be reopened any time soon

niallo27

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Good luck with getting back to normal if you lock up all the over 60’s
Teachers , nurses , doctors , etc etc many many 60 year old are fully functioning part of society

These nurses and doctors are working now anyway, as for teachers over 60, I would have no issue with allowing the vast majority of them retire but that is for another discussion.

irishgeo

The lockdown restrictions should be showing in the cases now after we get rid of the German backlog.

niallo27

pjohnson wrote: »

A roof? Yeah I know a guy.

You seem to have been unable to read my full question. Please try again really hard this time niall I know its a hard question but option A or B? Which is better

B obviously but unlike your roof, this virus can not be fixed completely asap.

Cork Boy 53

MaureensFry wrote: »

No when the curve flattens we should get back to normal. No point staying at home for 18 months when its mostly the elderly and people with underlying conditions affected. They can get the vaccine then.

No point in everyone suffering. There is no cure for Covid-19 or vaccine yet. We won't get rid of the virus.

Jesus Christ. How many times does it need to be stated that the point of the restrictions is to slow the spread of the virus enough so that the health services are not overwhelmed like what has happened in other countries? We know there is no cure until if and when a vaccine is developed.

pjohnson

Jenbach110 wrote: »

No you would address the specific localised damaged area of the roof and repair it.

Using your example the approach that has been taken to the restrictions would be equivalent of putting an umbrella over Ireland to prevent the rain falling in the 1st place.

The side effects of the umbrella blocking light and rain will cause more devastation than a leaky roof, but at least your attic is dry

So option B. That is what we are doing. Actual repair not a half assed job but proper repair.

niallo27

KiKi III wrote: »

How will it change your opinion if tomorrow’s death figure is 40-50? Will it alter your opinion? It seems like your mind is made up one way or the other.

I’d be delighted if the figure stayed at 14 and lower but I don’t think that’s going to be the case.

It's not, it's not. Am I not allowed to be optimistic that the whole country going into lockdown has actually worked. You expect the death count to increase, we are deeper into the lockdown, I dont see why it should increase.

Stheno

normanoffside wrote: »

As mentioned here:

Thanks I was working off memory