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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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niallo27

KiKi III wrote: »

Because we had a spike yesterday. Over 700 new cases today too.

You’re only looking at the bits of data you like.

I'm looking at the stable death numbers, the new cases is all over the place. We have tests back from germany and delayed testing, it's a joke. Deaths is the only stats we can go on.

Jenbach110

KiKi III wrote: »

Because we had a spike yesterday.

You’re only looking at the bits of data you like.

But its the data thats available, and its 14 deaths.

Now if this decrease continues or remains stable in a trend over the next 7 days, I dont think the current level of restrictions remain justifiable.

MaureensFry

Hopefully by the end of May we can get back to normal with still some restrictions in place. E.G you can't leave your county of residence unless for work, people who can work from home still can.

Pubs and restraunts should be allowed to open and all other businesses.

Let the over 60's and people with underlying conditions self isolate until a vaccine is announced.

iamwhoiam

KiKi III wrote: »

What makes you think three nights in ICU is quick?

The average stay with Covid in ICU is 7-14 days I believe

niallo27

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

We're clearly not following Italy's path and haven't been for some time now. Who in recent days has been saying we will have a similar experience to Italy?

It's perfectly plain to see what the measures we have introduced have significantly flattened the curve here. Our peak may be delayed but it will be nothing like Italy's.

Whose path are we following so. Has anybody a clue what we are hoping for or to be optimistic for.

KiKi III

niallo27 wrote: »

I'm looking at the stable death numbers, the new cases is all over the place. We have tests back from germany and delayed testing, it's a joke. Deaths is the only stats we can go on.

But the death numbers haven’t been stable. We had a spike of 36 a few days ago then it was in the 20s for a few days then another spike at 33 yesterday and now 14 today.

Very encouraging but there is no trend in the number of deaths decreasing yet.

VinLieger

KiKi III wrote: »

Because we had a spike yesterday. Over 700 new cases today too.

You’re only looking at the bits of data you like.

Its an artifical spike due to the German labs running through the backlog hopefully once we get through it we will go back to under 400 daily

KiKi III

Jenbach110 wrote: »

But its the data thats available, and its 14 deaths.

Now if this decrease continues or remains stable in a trend over the next 7 days, I dont think the current level of restrictions remain justifiable.

Right, but why are you so focused on the number today and determinedly ignoring the spike to 33 yesterday?

Yes, if the numbers were 14 and lower over the next 7 days that would be very encouraging but you need to brace yourself for the fact that that’s fairly unlikely.

iamwhoiam

MaureensFry wrote: »

Hopefully by the end of May we can get back to normal with still some restrictions in place. E.G you can't leave your county of residence unless for work, people who can work from home still can.

Pubs and restraunts should be allowed to open and all other businesses.

Let the over 60's and people with underlying conditions self isolate until a vaccine is announced.

Do you honestly think over 60 and people with underlying conditions can isolate for up to 18 months ? It is almost unthinkable that so many people could live without family contact . Plus many many with underlying condition have small children who would also then need to be isolated for the same period

KiKi III

VinLieger wrote: »

Its an artifical spike due to the German labs running through the backlog hopefully once we get through it we will go back to under 400 daily

That’s true, and also encouraging news.

pjohnson

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Do you honestly think over 60 and people with underlying conditions can isolate for up to 18 months ? It is almost unthinkable that so many people could live without family contact . Plus many many with underlying condition have small children who would also then need to be isolated for the same period

And then the people bemoaning the lockdown will claim the lockdown is bad for mental health while wanting to impose a larger permanent lockdown on others so they can sate their greed.

CruelSummer

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Do you honestly think over 60 and people with underlying conditions can isolate for up to 18 months ? It is almost unthinkable that so many people could live without family contact . Plus many many with underlying condition have small children who would also then need to be isolated for the same period

I don’t understand this question to the poster. Because it is difficult for over 60s to isolate and immunocompromised everyone should?

lord quackinton

Cupatae wrote: »

Are you incapable of understanding why these things are in place?

Who'd run this police state? id imagine most gardai would walk rather than impose gestapo rules you seem to think will be... you forget there families are under the same rules aswell. Stop being daft and over the top with absolute nonsense.

Well we are being forced to isolate ourselves as is by the state and the Gardaí so I assume the same people doing this To us now would continue doing it to over 70s

many people in Ireland now are acting like sheep
Why are they choosing this option is actually selfishness
They have skin in the game and won’t he honest about it

Discodog

KiKi III wrote: »

What makes you think three nights in ICU is quick?

I think I read that the average is 15 nights.

Builders are an interesting example. Apparently a lot of building work relies on a buddy system where two people work together. Other than that distancing is possible but hard to enforce as it isn't part of normal routine.

Jenbach110

KiKi III wrote: »

Right, but why are you so focused on the number today and determinedly ignoring the spike to 33 yesterday?

Yes, if the numbers were 14 and lower over the next 7 days that would be very encouraging but you need to brace yourself for the fact that that’s fairly unlikely.

Because its measured data that we have.

Anything regarding death rate rising by any amount is speculation.

CruelSummer

pjohnson wrote: »

And then the people bemoaning the lockdown will claim the lockdown is bad for mental health while wanting to impose a larger permanent lockdown on others so they can sate their greed.

What greed, this is absolute rubbish. People have jobs, livelihoods, homes to pay for, the longer the lockdown goes on for the harder it will be to recover. Simple.

iamwhoiam

CruelSummer wrote: »

I don’t understand this question to the poster. Because it is difficult for over 60s to isolate and immunocompromised everyone should?

No , everyone stays in until the curve flattens . What the poster is suggesting is to open pubs etc thus letting the virus spread again , but that’s ok cos we lock the vulnerable in while the rest pop to the pub

KiKi III

There is also encouraging data around the rate of hospitalisation and need for ICU if these numbers are correct which it seems they are.

https://mobile.twitter.com/datavizireland?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1248292473476198400&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fembed.scribblelive.com%2Fwidgets%2Fembed%2Fpost.aspx%3Fpost-id%3D1187710614

If this is right, the restrictions are working really well. We should resist the illogical but tempting urge to say “these restrictions should be lifted because they are working really well.”

That would only result in us going back into another lockdown again, which would be really hard to take. Let’s get the job done now.

Jenbach110

CruelSummer wrote: »

I don’t understand this question to the poster. Because it is difficult for over 60s to isolate and immunocompromised everyone should?

Yeah I share your approach here.

It seems the theory is, we cant isolate the vulnerable because its inhumane so we can only isolate everyone.

Discodog

iamwhoiam wrote: »

No , everyone stays in until the curve flattens . What the poster is suggesting is to open pubs etc thus letting the virus spread again , but that’s ok cos we lock the vulnerable in while the rest pop to the pub

I heard one of the many experts say that pubs would be last on the list as any distancing is impossible. The same applies to concerts, sports etc.

KiKi III

Jenbach110 wrote: »

Because its measured data that we have.

Anything regarding death rate rising by any amount is speculation.

That still doesn’t explain why you’ll only look at today’s deaths and not the trend over the last week. You’re only seeing what you want to see.

MaureensFry

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Do you honestly think over 60 and people with underlying conditions can isolate for up to 18 months ? It is almost unthinkable that so many people could live without family contact . Plus many many with underlying condition have small children who would also then need to be isolated for the same period

So just because the over 60's and people/families with underlying conditions have to self isolate everybody should? They'll have to wait for a vaccine unfortunatly.

I'm all for everyone to self isolate until the curve flattens but after that we need to get back to normal. Older people and people with underlying conditions will have to continue to self isolate until a vaccine is announced.

Jenbach110

iamwhoiam wrote: »

No , everyone stays in until the curve flattens . What the poster is suggesting is to open pubs etc thus letting the virus spread again , but that’s ok cos we lock the vulnerable in while the rest pop to the pub

The curve by all accounts is flattened.
In fact the infamous curve is now a hole

Gael23

Jenbach110 wrote: »

Yeah I share your approach here.

It seems the theory is, we cant isolate the vulnerable because its inhumane so we can only isolate everyone.

Long term you can’t anyway. That’s the approach the UK tried to take in order to protect the economy

Padre_Pio

VinLieger wrote: »

Its an artifical spike due to the German labs running through the backlog hopefully once we get through it we will go back to under 400 daily

Artificial is the wrong word. They are true cases that should have been added to totals in days past.

While they've distorted the numbers over the last few days there's nothing to suggest we're near peak and numbers are decreasing.

iamwhoiam

Jenbach110 wrote: »

Yeah I share your approach here.

It seems the theory is, we cant isolate the vulnerable because its inhumane so we can only isolate everyone.

No , you isolate everyone for a much shorter period than 18 months .
If you allow one whole group off to the pub you only increase the period of isolation for the other group

martingriff

MaureensFry wrote: »

Hopefully by the end of May we can get back to normal with still some restrictions in place. E.G you can't leave your county of residence unless for work, people who can work from home still can.

Pubs and restraunts should be allowed to open and all other businesses.

Let the over 60's and people with underlying conditions self isolate until a vaccine is announced.

You are mad if you think pubs and clubs will open. The 2 meter distance is here to say for the foreseeable future. Restaurants that can keep people apart can open and a restriction on amount in a shop at 1 time.

niallo27

KiKi III wrote: »

Right, but why are you so focused on the number today and determinedly ignoring the spike to 33 yesterday?

Yes, if the numbers were 14 and lower over the next 7 days that would be very encouraging but you need to brace yourself for the fact that that’s fairly unlikely.

Why 14, they were 36 six days ago, we have not gone over that figure since. These numbers are supposed to increase rapidly. I'm not under any illusion that it's going away but this has to be a huge sign of optimism.

C.O.Y.B.I.B

Has anyone seen any stats on how people contracted it . I imagine it's probably more relevant for those.who contracted in the last 2 weeks . Really a question around community transmission . I like most am following all the guidelines , but if I found out tommorow I had it , I could say it was likely from Supermarket as it's the biggest risk in my weekly routine. That said I'm ultra careful wiping all produce etc.. This information could inform others as to where they might need to protect themselves better , akin to Burglary stats helping people protect themselves.

pjohnson

Jenbach110 wrote: »

Yeah I share your approach here.

It seems the theory is, we cant isolate the vulnerable because its inhumane so we can only isolate everyone.

Lets say you've a leaky roof
Would you
A) Partially repair the roof with a bit of sellotape and a towel and leave it for a few months
or

would you repair it fully asap?

Which method of repair will cause less damage overall do you think?