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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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[Deleted User]

citysights wrote: »

Lots and lots of people are worried but surely we must have some positivity too. He paints a very bleak picture, we’ve made progress here, we’ve a beautiful well developed island here and loads of really really good people. Fingers crossed and trying to keep the best side out.

I understand what you're saying and agree.

However having a "beautiful well developed country and loads of really really good people" means absolutely nothing if people can't pay their mortgages. It means nothing if there is no tourism and the Wild Atlantic Way which support many of those tourism industries is shut down. It means nothing if business, factories, SMEs never open up again. It means nothing if people cannot buy or sell houses. The list goes on and on.

ZX7R

lord quackinton wrote: »

Has everyone read this
Not a big fan of Hobbs but he is the first I have seen lay down the real harsh truths
Strictly over 18 only as Hobbs writes

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/analysis/eddie-hobbs-fasten-your-seatbelt-the-worst-is-yet-to-come-993618.html

I think it’s time people accept what is coming and also accept we must open now fully and I mean everything to try and protect as much of our internal economy as we can

Ah Eddie, I'm surprised he didn't crawl out from under his rock sooner

alwald

Jenbach110 wrote: »

As regards the US, applying Itilian figures on a larger population, we should expect 6000 deaths per day at peak?

This logic is flawed as both countries have different restrictions in place, different population age groups, different number of ICU beds per capita and the list is long.

citysights

lord quackinton wrote: »

I don’t want people to die from this virus and I have elderly family and friends
But I worry more for the thousands of people who will be unemployed and on the dole and the desperation and depression that will follow
I want to open this economy to save as many jobs as possible while accepting we will lose many jobs
I am not here saying my way is easy but i will not BS anyone - I have lived through poverty and witnessed the damage it causes , drug drink gambling addictions, children going hungry-
Let those who want to work go back
To work

Lots and lots of people are worried but surely we must have some positivity too. He paints a very bleak picture, we’ve made progress here, we’ve a beautiful well developed island here and loads of really really good people. Fingers crossed and trying to keep the best side out.

lord quackinton

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm a month out of the job now and my industry will not be restarting anytime soon, even with a relaxing of restrictions. 'Your health is your wealth' is a great saying, but wholly simplistic in a situation such as this. I say this as someone who is not going hungry here or begging in the streets. Also, most of my work has been rescheduled for future rather than outright cancelled.

What/when is 'the future' though? I've been a good little boy for a month now in relation to social distancing and following guidelines, and doing my best to keep my mental health in check also. I've been taking the positives from a bad situation and appreciating the simpler things in life...all of that. Day to day is mostly fine, but looking at an indefinite future of this with no light at the end of the tunnel...that is a test. I don't want one person to die from COVID-19, but it's also starting to hit home that many things in my life have disappeared, won't be coming back soon, and I'm not as 'oh well' about it as I was say 2 weeks ago.

It doesn't help that while I'm confined to indoors or a 2km radius, masses of people were flocking to beaches and acting like it's just another good BH weekend. House/garden parties galore also. For one - it's making me question what's the point of enduring these deprivations myself, and for another - The longer these masses ignore guidelines and restrictions, the longer it is until I can go back to work and/or resume some semblance of life. I can only see a growth in this behaviour as the lockdown progresses, especially if we're in for some decent weather in the months ahead.

There is a balance and nuances - No one here (hopefully) is saying 'Fúck the virus, let's just carry on as normal'. Just as no one is saying that it is 100% fine to remain in lockdown indefinitely. Getting on top of the virus and managing our ICU admissions is still priority for me, absolutely, but I don't know how well I could mentally endure the past month's isolation if it were to carry on the same for another 6-18 months.

I don’t want people to die from this virus and I have elderly family and friends
But I worry more for the thousands of people who will be unemployed and on the dole and the desperation and depression that will follow
I want to open this economy to save as many jobs as possible while accepting we will lose many jobs
I am not here saying my way is easy but i will not BS anyone - I have lived through poverty and witnessed the damage it causes , drug drink gambling addictions, children going hungry-
Let those who want to work go back
To work

citysights

lord quackinton wrote: »

Has everyone read this
Not a big fan of Hobbs but he is the first I have seen lay down the real harsh truths
Strictly over 18 only as Hobbs writes

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/analysis/eddie-hobbs-fasten-your-seatbelt-the-worst-is-yet-to-come-993618.html

I think it’s time people accept what is coming and also accept we must open now fully and I mean everything to try and protect as much of our internal economy as we can

Glossed it, you’d actually need to lie down after reading that.

skallywag

robbiezero wrote: »

Surely if there was concern over the compliance rates this is what they would be doing. The fact that they sre not imo indicates they are happy emough with compliance

Paragraph three in the post above your one would seems to point towards something different.

skallywag

Jenbach110 wrote: »

As regards the US, applying Itilian figures on a larger population, we should expect 6000 deaths per day at peak?

I do not see how we can compare the two in any meaningful way.

Italy went into complete lockdown and has been in that state for some time. The US had nothing worth talking about in place for a long time after the warnings were there, and even to this day has nothing countrywide in place along the lines of Italy.

So apart from forecasting that the US is going to be certainly worse than Italy (factoring in also it's much larger population as you mentioned) there is not much else we can really conclude in terms of actual numbers at the moment.

Jenbach110

skallywag wrote: »

Comparing countries is practically impossible, and you are nearly always dealing with Apples and Oranges, particularly when it comes to the number of new cases per day, as this number is often measured in a different way completely. Every country also has a very different manner in which testing is carried out. For example some countries will do completely random testing on the population, which is very good at giving you a feeling for how many people in the actual country have it (e.g. Austria did this), whereas other countries will only test people who are clearly sick with symptoms. There are then other countries (e.g. Switzerland) who will not even test you if you do have symptoms.

Concerning the USA, I believe that the main point in play at the moment is how the numbers (of deaths per day in particular) have spiked so fast, and how the governments lack of initial action, or not, may have contributed.

As regards the US, applying Itilian figures on a larger population, we should expect 6000 deaths per day at peak?

robbiezero

skallywag wrote: »

You do not need to make more restrictions, you need to heavily increase the penalty for non-compliance. In some countries you are getting a fine of up to 3 times the average monthly salary, which is rigidly enforced. This tends to make most people think twice.

Surely if there was concern over the compliance rates this is what they would be doing. The fact that they sre not imo indicates they are happy emough with compliance

[Deleted User]

I'm a month out of the job now and my industry will not be restarting anytime soon, even with a relaxing of restrictions. 'Your health is your wealth' is a great saying, but wholly simplistic in a situation such as this. I say this as someone who is not going hungry here or begging in the streets. Also, most of my work has been rescheduled for future rather than outright cancelled.

What/when is 'the future' though? I've been a good little boy for a month now in relation to social distancing and following guidelines, and doing my best to keep my mental health in check also. I've been taking the positives from a bad situation and appreciating the simpler things in life...all of that. Day to day is mostly fine, but looking at an indefinite future of this with no light at the end of the tunnel...that is a test. I don't want one person to die from COVID-19, but it's also starting to hit home that many things in my life have disappeared, won't be coming back soon, and I'm not as 'oh well' about it as I was say 2 weeks ago.

It doesn't help that while I'm confined to indoors or a 2km radius, masses of people were flocking to beaches and acting like it's just another good BH weekend. House/garden parties galore also. For one - it's making me question what's the point of enduring these deprivations myself, and for another - The longer these masses ignore guidelines and restrictions, the longer it is until I can go back to work and/or resume some semblance of life. I can only see a growth in this behaviour as the lockdown progresses, especially if we're in for some decent weather in the months ahead.

There is a balance and nuances - No one here (hopefully) is saying 'Fúck the virus, let's just carry on as normal'. Just as no one is saying that it is 100% fine to remain in lockdown indefinitely. Getting on top of the virus and managing our ICU admissions is still priority for me, absolutely, but I don't know how well I could mentally endure the past month's isolation if it were to carry on the same for another 6-18 months.

normanoffside

KiKi III wrote: »

Yeah, and that’s why we closed the pubs and schools and introduced social isolation and eventually went into lockdown to prevent us reaching that number.

We would likely have had that number and more if we hadn’t done the above.

We would never have had 15,000 confirmed cases because we would never have been able to test that many.

In reality I am sure we have already had a lot more than that number,

Spain for example estimates it has had 16 times more cases than those reported. It's not unreasonable;e to suggest we maybe have had 5 times more than our number, that would be 40,000+

skallywag

Jenbach110 wrote: »

Im struggling lately to follow those predictions from Leo.

Something else I struggle with is articles comparing countries.

Headlines have compared deaths with Italy and the US.
Of course the US will have more deaths it has 6 times the population of Italy.
Its limited journalism to compare such vastly different countries and suggest its shocking that the US would have a higher death rate.

Is it correct to suggest that if you are over 65 in Italy you have a 1 in 1000 chance of dying from Covid up to now?
1 in 3000 from the general population?
Im in no way statistical so Im open to correction.

Comparing countries is practically impossible, and you are nearly always dealing with Apples and Oranges, particularly when it comes to the number of new cases per day, as this number is often measured in a different way completely. Every country also has a very different manner in which testing is carried out. For example some countries will do completely random testing on the population, which is very good at giving you a feeling for how many people in the actual country have it (e.g. Austria did this), whereas other countries will only test people who are clearly sick with symptoms. There are then other countries (e.g. Switzerland) who will not even test you if you do have symptoms.

Concerning the USA, I believe that the main point in play at the moment is how the numbers (of deaths per day in particular) have spiked so fast, and how the governments lack of initial action, or not, may have contributed.

lord quackinton

Has everyone read this
Not a big fan of Hobbs but he is the first I have seen lay down the real harsh truths
Strictly over 18 only as Hobbs writes

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/analysis/eddie-hobbs-fasten-your-seatbelt-the-worst-is-yet-to-come-993618.html

I think it’s time people accept what is coming and also accept we must open now fully and I mean everything to try and protect as much of our internal economy as we can

pjohnson

niallo27 wrote: »

No, I know exactly what he is saying. There will always be a percentage that wont care about the rules. Do you actually think 100% of people will comply.

You can apply this "logic" to any law and it remains just as daft an excuse.

Blueshoe

SNNUS wrote: »

Exactly and people expecting anything but scummage are deluded.

They don't mind not being able to work and having to live on government welfare sure it's no different to any other day of the year.
Not an alarm clock needed between the lot of them

[Deleted User]

skallywag wrote: »

If you want to be pedantic and not include any numbers from Norther Ireland, then yes, it is 33.

You are falling into the 'not a bad number' trap though. 33 deaths in a one day period is horrific. If the prediction had been that 10,000 would die per day, and the reality was that 1,000 were dying per pad, would you also then say that's 'not a bad number'?

We have a land border with the North, makes it a different jurisdiction. This all started with the media combining both deaths and new case numbers from North and South in a bid to be sensationalist, think George Lee, he loves the drama

. While I see the need the need for others to consider the island as a whole, we are dealing with figures from two different countries. We don't see Slovakia and Czech Republic combining numbers just because they have a land border.

Jenbach110

niallo27 wrote: »

Leo said we would have 15k cases by end of march, leo said we would be mass testing, forgive me for not believing every word that man says.

Im struggling lately to follow those predictions from Leo.

Something else I struggle with is articles comparing countries.

Headlines have compared deaths with Italy and the US.
Of course the US will have more deaths it has 6 times the population of Italy.
Its limited journalism to compare such vastly different countries and suggest its shocking that the US would have a higher death rate.

Is it correct to suggest that if you are over 65 in Italy you have a 1 in 1000 chance of dying from Covid up to now?
1 in 3000 from the general population?
Im in no way statistical so Im open to correction.

KrustyUCC

Ciara Kelly has a good article in the Indo today

"so keeping them until midnight on the May Bank Holiday is the right call.

But the lockdown cannot last too much longer than that, because if it does, the cure becomes worse than the disease. The economic fall out is too great and the job losses too high.

The knock-on effects on other non Covid-19 related aspects of people's mental and physical health means there is a tipping point where more people are harmed by lockdown than are saved"

SNNUS

Blueshoe wrote: »

They probably have a less scumbag to normal person ratio than we have.
Scumbags pay no attention to rules or authority

Exactly and people expecting anything but scummage are deluded.

skallywag

never_mind wrote: »

Wow. Gotta love the police state lovers.

Have you a better suggestion for increasing compliance?

If you try asking, and it is not working, then what to you suggest? I'm curious.

skallywag

niallo27 wrote: »

Yes, because I'm not living in a dream land that this is not a global pandemic and thousands will die, so when I see a relative low amount of deaths per population despite tragic I'm hopeful and thankful it's not multiple times more.

It is far too early to be taking any solace in a false hope that the numbers could be stabilizing etc. For statistics to be in anyway meaningful you need a certain amount of time to have elapsed, and we are far from there yet. If we jump forward two weeks from now, and we are still at the 20-30 deaths per day mark, then I would agree with you. We have no way of currently knowing however.

What many also fail to realise is that it takes a finite time to actually die, usually ca 2 weeks.

never_mind

skallywag wrote: »

You do not need to make more restrictions, you need to heavily increase the penalty for non-compliance. In some countries you are getting a fine of up to 3 times the average monthly salary, which is rigidly enforced. This tends to make most people think twice.

Wow. Gotta love the police state lovers.

Blueshoe

skallywag wrote: »

I think that other countries seem to have a far better level of compliance with restrictions than Ireland does. Take a look to Germany or Austria for example, they have been asked to do similar and somehow seem to be able to behave a lot better than Ireland, for whatever reason.

I would have no issue whatsoever with compliance being enforced with a heavier hand.

They probably have a less scumbag to normal person ratio than we have.
Scumbags pay no attention to rules or authority

Aph2016

TheCitizen wrote: »

Ignore him. He's just another sock puppet that has popped up on here.

He's entitled to his opinion and it's an opinion that many other people share. People like you who try to shut down an opposing view make me sick.

niallo27

skallywag wrote: »

You do not need to make more restrictions, you need to heavily increase the penalty for non-compliance. In some countries you are getting a fine of up to 3 times the average monthly salary, which is rigidly enforced. This tends to make most people think twice.

Well that's different, I have no issue with that. My original point was about punishing the majority with further restrictions.

niallo27

skallywag wrote: »

If you want to be pedantic and not include any numbers from Norther Ireland, then yes, it is 33.

You are falling into the 'not a bad number' trap though. 33 deaths in a one day period is horrific. If the prediction had been that 10,000 would die per day, and the reality was that 1,000 were dying per pad, would you also then say that's 'not a bad number'?

Yes, because I'm not living in a dream land that this is not a global pandemic and thousands will die, so when I see a relative low amount of deaths per population despite tragic I'm hopeful and thankful it's not multiple times more.

skallywag

niallo27 wrote: »

So do you think further restrictions would stop the 1% from carrying on exactly the way they are now. If they ignore the ones now why the hell would they follow harsher ones.

You do not need to make more restrictions, you need to heavily increase the penalty for non-compliance. In some countries you are getting a fine of up to 3 times the average monthly salary, which is rigidly enforced. This tends to make most people think twice.

niallo27

KiKi III wrote: »

....which shows the restrictions are working.

I never once said they were not working, they are essential. My point was the poster said they were not stable.

skallywag

niallo27 wrote: »

We had 33 deaths yesterday had we not, not 50. It is not a bad number when some predicted 1000s would die every day. I think you will find the number of deaths has been pretty stable over the last few days.

If you want to be pedantic and not include any numbers from Norther Ireland, then yes, it is 33.

You are falling into the 'not a bad number' trap though. 33 deaths in a one day period is horrific. If the prediction had been that 10,000 would die per day, and the reality was that 1,000 were dying per pad, would you also then say that's 'not a bad number'?