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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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Airyfairy12

I just hope they open skin clinics and beauty salons at least 2 weeks before the pubs.

mandrake04

niallo27 wrote: »

I would fear for us to have anything like this in place by may 5th. I do think come the 5th they have to give the people some bit of incentive that all this is working.

Leo came out today and said Ireland has yet to hit the peak which will be Ireland’s darkest days, the peak is down the road and nobody knows exactly when it could be before the 5th or it could be after the 5th.

If the peak hit tomorrow it would take a week to realise it.

Kermit.de.frog

Tenzor07 wrote: »

You've asked and answered your own statements in that post..

It's a fact that the world is going to go through a cycle of lockdowns > lifting of restrictions > rise in cases > lockdowns > lifting.. and so on... that's the accepted way this is going to play out.
Otherwise it will be a full lockdown until a vaccine is found, which could be this time next year.

As long as there is testing and quick isolation of cases we can have a limited opening up and a lot of people will return to work where distancing measures are in place.

But there are some here who genuinely seem to think they will be abroad on holidays this summer.

Verging on delusional in my opinion but if it makes them feel better believing it then I'm not gonna argue.

skallywag

mandrake04 wrote: »

Leo came out today and said Ireland has yet to hit the peak

This is the major crux of the issue in my opinion.

One of the most important metrics is deaths per day, and while that is not stabilizing then any talk of returning to any form of normality is frankly completely moot. You really would have to be very naive to hold such an opinion.

We had close to fifty deaths on the island yesterday, and I recall some posters saying this 'was not a bad number' really. It really makes me think that some people have genuinely no idea still of the gravity of this whole situation.

BanditLuke

niallo27 wrote: »

So you think it's fair to punish the 99% because of the 1%, thank **** you are not in charge.

You judge a society by how it treats its most vulnerable.

Thank fcuk you aren't in charge.

niallo27

mandrake04 wrote: »

Leo came out today and said Ireland has yet to hit the peak which will be Ireland’s darkest days, the peak is down the road and nobody knows exactly when it could be before the 5th or it could be after the 5th.

If the peak hit tomorrow it would take a week to realise it.

Leo said we would have 15k cases by end of march, leo said we would be mass testing, forgive me for not believing every word that man says.

niallo27

BanditLuke wrote: »

You judge a society by how it treats its most vulnerable.

Thank fcuk you aren't in charge.

So you think there should be further restrictions.

iamwhoiam

[QUOTE=niallo27;113136420]Leo said we would have 15k cases by end of march, leo said we would be mass testing, forgive me for not believing every word that man says.[/QUOTE]

Leo said we could have 15k if we did nothing .,We did so we dont

skallywag

niallo27 wrote: »

So you think there should be further restrictions.

I think the way this Easter weekend goes will be telling. If there is an overall high level of compliance then I do not see the need, but if people continue to take the piss, then harsher measures could be unavoidable. While I certainly do not want it, I would also reluctantly condone it.

SNNUS

BanditLuke wrote: »

You judge a society by how it treats its most vulnerable.

Thank fcuk you aren't in charge.

I think the point that is being is made is to police that 1% now even though we know that won't happen rather than more restrictions yet the 1% will swan around, either too rough to deal with etc. And no virus will suddenly make them considerate individuals.

robbiezero

skallywag wrote: »

I think that other countries seem to have a far better level of compliance with restrictions than Ireland does. Take a look to Germany or Austria for example, they have been asked to do similar and somehow seem to be able to behave a lot better than Ireland, for whatever reason.

I would have no issue whatsoever with compliance being enforced with a heavier hand.

What are the rates of compliance of other countries versus here?

niallo27

skallywag wrote: »

This is the major crux of the issue in my opinion.

One of the most important metrics is deaths per day, and while that is not stabilizing then any talk of returning to any form of normality is frankly completely moot. You really would have to be very naive to hold such an opinion.

We had close to fifty deaths on the island yesterday, and I recall some posters saying this 'was not a bad number' really. It really makes me think that some people have genuinely no idea still of the gravity of this whole situation.

We had 33 deaths yesterday had we not, not 50. It is not a bad number when some predicted 1000s would die every day. I think you will find the number of deaths has been pretty stable over the last few days.

KiKi III

niallo27 wrote: »

Leo said we would have 15k cases by end of march, leo said we would be mass testing, forgive me for not believing every word that man says.

Yeah, and that’s why we closed the pubs and schools and introduced social isolation and eventually went into lockdown to prevent us reaching that number.

We would likely have had that number and more if we hadn’t done the above.

KiKi III

niallo27 wrote: »

I think you will find the number of deaths has been pretty stable over the last few days.

....which shows the restrictions are working.

niallo27

skallywag wrote: »

I think the way this Easter weekend goes will be telling. If there is an overall high level of compliance then I do not see the need, but if people continue to take the piss, then harsher measures could be unavoidable. While I certainly do not want it, I would also reluctantly condone it.

So do you think further restrictions would stop the 1% from carrying on exactly the way they are now. If they ignore the ones now why the hell would they follow harsher ones.

skallywag

niallo27 wrote: »

We had 33 deaths yesterday had we not, not 50. It is not a bad number when some predicted 1000s would die every day. I think you will find the number of deaths has been pretty stable over the last few days.

If you want to be pedantic and not include any numbers from Norther Ireland, then yes, it is 33.

You are falling into the 'not a bad number' trap though. 33 deaths in a one day period is horrific. If the prediction had been that 10,000 would die per day, and the reality was that 1,000 were dying per pad, would you also then say that's 'not a bad number'?

niallo27

KiKi III wrote: »

....which shows the restrictions are working.

I never once said they were not working, they are essential. My point was the poster said they were not stable.

skallywag

niallo27 wrote: »

So do you think further restrictions would stop the 1% from carrying on exactly the way they are now. If they ignore the ones now why the hell would they follow harsher ones.

You do not need to make more restrictions, you need to heavily increase the penalty for non-compliance. In some countries you are getting a fine of up to 3 times the average monthly salary, which is rigidly enforced. This tends to make most people think twice.

niallo27

skallywag wrote: »

If you want to be pedantic and not include any numbers from Norther Ireland, then yes, it is 33.

You are falling into the 'not a bad number' trap though. 33 deaths in a one day period is horrific. If the prediction had been that 10,000 would die per day, and the reality was that 1,000 were dying per pad, would you also then say that's 'not a bad number'?

Yes, because I'm not living in a dream land that this is not a global pandemic and thousands will die, so when I see a relative low amount of deaths per population despite tragic I'm hopeful and thankful it's not multiple times more.

niallo27

skallywag wrote: »

You do not need to make more restrictions, you need to heavily increase the penalty for non-compliance. In some countries you are getting a fine of up to 3 times the average monthly salary, which is rigidly enforced. This tends to make most people think twice.

Well that's different, I have no issue with that. My original point was about punishing the majority with further restrictions.

Aph2016

TheCitizen wrote: »

Ignore him. He's just another sock puppet that has popped up on here.

He's entitled to his opinion and it's an opinion that many other people share. People like you who try to shut down an opposing view make me sick.

Blueshoe

skallywag wrote: »

I think that other countries seem to have a far better level of compliance with restrictions than Ireland does. Take a look to Germany or Austria for example, they have been asked to do similar and somehow seem to be able to behave a lot better than Ireland, for whatever reason.

I would have no issue whatsoever with compliance being enforced with a heavier hand.

They probably have a less scumbag to normal person ratio than we have.
Scumbags pay no attention to rules or authority

never_mind

skallywag wrote: »

You do not need to make more restrictions, you need to heavily increase the penalty for non-compliance. In some countries you are getting a fine of up to 3 times the average monthly salary, which is rigidly enforced. This tends to make most people think twice.

Wow. Gotta love the police state lovers.

skallywag

niallo27 wrote: »

Yes, because I'm not living in a dream land that this is not a global pandemic and thousands will die, so when I see a relative low amount of deaths per population despite tragic I'm hopeful and thankful it's not multiple times more.

It is far too early to be taking any solace in a false hope that the numbers could be stabilizing etc. For statistics to be in anyway meaningful you need a certain amount of time to have elapsed, and we are far from there yet. If we jump forward two weeks from now, and we are still at the 20-30 deaths per day mark, then I would agree with you. We have no way of currently knowing however.

What many also fail to realise is that it takes a finite time to actually die, usually ca 2 weeks.

skallywag

never_mind wrote: »

Wow. Gotta love the police state lovers.

Have you a better suggestion for increasing compliance?

If you try asking, and it is not working, then what to you suggest? I'm curious.

SNNUS

Blueshoe wrote: »

They probably have a less scumbag to normal person ratio than we have.
Scumbags pay no attention to rules or authority

Exactly and people expecting anything but scummage are deluded.

KrustyUCC

Ciara Kelly has a good article in the Indo today

"so keeping them until midnight on the May Bank Holiday is the right call.

But the lockdown cannot last too much longer than that, because if it does, the cure becomes worse than the disease. The economic fall out is too great and the job losses too high.

The knock-on effects on other non Covid-19 related aspects of people's mental and physical health means there is a tipping point where more people are harmed by lockdown than are saved"

Jenbach110

niallo27 wrote: »

Leo said we would have 15k cases by end of march, leo said we would be mass testing, forgive me for not believing every word that man says.

Im struggling lately to follow those predictions from Leo.

Something else I struggle with is articles comparing countries.

Headlines have compared deaths with Italy and the US.
Of course the US will have more deaths it has 6 times the population of Italy.
Its limited journalism to compare such vastly different countries and suggest its shocking that the US would have a higher death rate.

Is it correct to suggest that if you are over 65 in Italy you have a 1 in 1000 chance of dying from Covid up to now?
1 in 3000 from the general population?
Im in no way statistical so Im open to correction.

[Deleted User]

skallywag wrote: »

If you want to be pedantic and not include any numbers from Norther Ireland, then yes, it is 33.

You are falling into the 'not a bad number' trap though. 33 deaths in a one day period is horrific. If the prediction had been that 10,000 would die per day, and the reality was that 1,000 were dying per pad, would you also then say that's 'not a bad number'?

We have a land border with the North, makes it a different jurisdiction. This all started with the media combining both deaths and new case numbers from North and South in a bid to be sensationalist, think George Lee, he loves the drama

. While I see the need the need for others to consider the island as a whole, we are dealing with figures from two different countries. We don't see Slovakia and Czech Republic combining numbers just because they have a land border.

Blueshoe

SNNUS wrote: »

Exactly and people expecting anything but scummage are deluded.

They don't mind not being able to work and having to live on government welfare sure it's no different to any other day of the year.
Not an alarm clock needed between the lot of them