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Sweden avoiding lockdown

frillyleaf

Does Sweden have the right approach to this and how is their healthcare system being able to manage Covid19 cases?

What are the differences between Sweden and Ireland and why can’t we continue similar to how Sweden is managing Covid19?

I’m not suggesting either is right or wrong. I would just like to know how Sweden can continue as normal and other countries can’t. Thanks ðŸ˜Š

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Bit cynical

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

Any country can continue as normal if they are willing to accept that many people will die.

Sweden seem to be ok with a higher death than other countries.

Although they don't have the sever restrictions of other countries it does look like their death rate per million due to the virus is lower than a fair number of other countries, including France, Belgium etc. This may be due to their being a fairly conformist country that obeys guidelines. Although they don't have the same level of legal restrictions, the cities are generally quieter.

Housing may also play a part. It is much more common in Sweden to live in your own small apartment before forming a family than, say, Ireland where flat and house sharing or living in the parental home is common. Room sharing with strangers is common in the inner cities in Ireland.

It is still too early to say which country has the right approach. When this is over, things like the economy will have to be factored in. My worry in Ireland is that we may succeed in suppressing the virus but at some point, restrictions will have to be lifted in order to get some sort of economy that can be taxed to pay for services including medical services, pensions and so on.

I don't think the Swedish model is right for every country but it may prove to be the right model for Sweden when this is all over.

niallo27

thebaz wrote: »

and thers Belarus, where the President reccomends Vodka and saunas will kill virus:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nadbJcgVFE

Not sure about the vodka, but saunas wont work

Only 23 reported dead, I wonder how bad it really is. Be interesting.

Greentopia

suicide_circus wrote: »

Sweden has a history of massaging figures for media consumption

Such as?

Augeo wrote: »

Indeed.... Rape etc

Does it really need to be explained yet again that Sweden records rape statistics differently to other countries, treating each incidence of rape as such- example someone is raped twice by the same person in a single incident is two charges of rape.

Sweden is one of the most transparent and least corrupt nations on earth, ranked 4th last year and consistently ranking in the top 5 least corrupt countries in the world.
Ireland is 18 btw.

thebaz

and thers Belarus, where the President reccomends Vodka and saunas will kill virus:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nadbJcgVFE

Not sure about the vodka, but saunas wont work

Joe_ Public

Logan Roy wrote: »

I'm not aware of any success stories tbh, of course a virus isn't going to spread if you stop people moving around. The real success will be lifting restrictions and not having a resurgence, there's no proof of this anywhere yet.

Ok fair point. Success story probably premature terminology. Those coping best at least. Look, i hope the best for sweden and if it turns out they're on a good path along, that's great. Just I'm ok with way we're going. Some talking like we've never been in pandemic before. But there's good evidence of effect of lockdowns going back to 1918, i dont see we're totally shooting blind here but only time can be the ultimate arbiter on that.

Loafing Oaf

timsey tiger wrote: »

Reports of fast tracked vaccines being ready to roll out in September today from UK.

I guess these might be wishful thinking or complete over selling

Gives you more confidence when it's the scientists themselves saying it but yeah, let's wait and see...

[Deleted User]

Joe_ Public wrote: »

.
All you can say is that every success story at this early stage has involved either a restrictive approach or very aggressive testing and contact tracing or both. Thats it so far, i havent heard of any counter strategy working effectively yet. I just want to be with the herd on this one. If it turns out I've been backing the wrong horse, I'll shrug and say that's where I'd have wanted to be everytime anyway.

So-called "success" Singapore now locked down

https://www.cnet.com/news/singapore-had-the-coronavirus-under-control-now-its-locking-down-the-country/

2u2me

timsey tiger wrote: »

Two ways of looking at it imo.

Yes you could say that, though this isn't an experiment, it's an experience.

or

Not really, they know that they are the control group. For an experiment, neither they nor their physician should know whether they were the control or not.

I think we can disregard the placebo effect in this case! :pac:

2u2me

glasso wrote: »

can you link to definitive evidence showing how many would have been saved in Italy and how many died specifically because of ventilator shortage?

Well it wasn't just ventilator shortage. It was shortage of medical personnel and other equipment, resources, beds, wards, masks, etc..

Just look at the death rate they have been experiencing as of late, compared to the death rate(per unit time) they had before this crisis. They're health service was unable to handle it.

A total of 17,127 people have died from the virus in Italy,the most anywhere in the world, with Lombardy accounting for 55%of the tally. The region also accounts for 39% of the country's 135,586 confirmed cases.
The particularly large death toll in Lombardy, thewealthiest region in Italy, has raised eyebrows, with local officials suggesting that both the high urban density andconsiderable elderly population might have played a part.
However, a damning letter by senior doctors, including the heads of 11 provincial health authorities within Lombardy, said failures in the region's health system had exacerbated the greatest emergency Italy has faced since World War Two[...]
While the neighbouring region of Veneto engaged in widespread testing in a known coronavirus hotspot, Lombardy only tested the seriously ill arriving for treatment in hospital,saying they did not have the capacity for wider checks.

Source

Logan Roy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

.
All you can say is that every success story at this early stage has involved either a restrictive approach or very aggressive testing and contact tracing or both. Thats it so far, i havent heard of any counter strategy working effectively yet. I just want to be with the herd on this one. If it turns out I've been backing the wrong horse, I'll shrug and say that's where I'd have wanted to be everytime anyway.

I'm not aware of any success stories tbh, of course a virus isn't going to spread if you stop people moving around. The real success will be lifting restrictions and not having a resurgence, there's no proof of this anywhere yet.

Joe_ Public

Logan Roy wrote: »

We're in an experiment of our own, how can people not understand this. There's absolutely no proof at all that in the long run our approach works better than theirs.

.
All you can say is that every success story at this early stage has involved either a restrictive approach or very aggressive testing and contact tracing or both. Thats it so far, i havent heard of any counter strategy working effectively yet. I just want to be with the herd on this one. If it turns out I've been backing the wrong horse, I'll shrug and say that's where I'd have wanted to be everytime anyway.

Jurgen Klopp

timsey tiger wrote: »

Reports of fast tracked vaccines being ready to roll out in September today from UK.

I guess these might be wishful thinking or complete over selling, but if it comes to pass, then a lock-down wound in hindsight be seen as the way to go. I guess.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-as-early-as-september-according-to-scientist-11971804

Well if I remember correctly with the swine flu it was declared a pandemic in April with vaccines that November but resulted in 1 in 55,000 developing narcolepsy from the vaccine

Logan Roy

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

What should be happening is each government should be following Iceland's and Germanys path by sending out teams to randomly sample their population from different areas

Not this craic so far where a lot nations are just testing those who present to hospital or have to meet a high criteria which is whipping media and populations into hysteria

It would give an interesting picture

I feel like we never think outside of the box in this country, it's always a case of following everyone else and usually from far behind. It's only through referendums that we have actually done anything you could consider progressive. Ultra conservative politics rule round these parts unfortunately.

Jurgen Klopp

Blut2 wrote: »

This is really worth quoting for a new page. We should really be seeing a rapid loosening of restrictions now, given this data.

What should be happening is each government should be following Iceland's and Germanys path by sending out teams to randomly sample their population from different areas

Not this craic so far where a lot nations are just testing those who present to hospital or have to meet a high criteria which is whipping media and populations into hysteria

It would give an interesting picture

vladmydad

Bridge93 wrote: »

Sweden do not test or record anything outside of their hospitals. Do not take any notice of their numbers. They’ve left swathes of their population to die

This is what I’m talking about right here..... what a scandalous thing to say.

timsey tiger

Reports of fast tracked vaccines being ready to roll out in September today from UK.

I guess these might be wishful thinking or complete over selling, but if it comes to pass, then a lock-down wound in hindsight be seen as the way to go. I guess.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-as-early-as-september-according-to-scientist-11971804

KiKi III

Logan Roy wrote: »

We're in an experiment of our own, how can people not understand this. There's absolutely no proof at all that in the long run our approach works better than theirs.

You're right - we have absolutely no evidence of how this works out in the long run. Nobody does.

So the smart money would go with the approach working best in the immediate term.

Logan Roy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Even people in Sweden are calling it the "great experiment." I'm happy not to be in a situation where I'm feeling like a lab rat.

We're in an experiment of our own, how can people not understand this. There's absolutely no proof at all that in the long run our approach works better than theirs.

timsey tiger

2u2me wrote: »

In this experiment they would be called the 'control group' !

Two ways of looking at it imo.

Yes you could say that, though this isn't an experiment, it's an experience.

or

Not really, they know that they are the control group. For an experiment, neither they nor their physician should know whether they were the control or not.

[Deleted User]

2u2me wrote: »

Just because the death rate may be a lot lower than expected doesn't necessarily mean loosening restrictions being the right course of action.

The logic Turtwig points out is sound, Just look at Italy; over-burdening the hospitals all at once can lead to people dying from very treatable conditions.

can you link to definitive evidence showing how many would have been saved in Italy and how many died specifically because of ventilator shortage?

Italy has no clue of what % of their population was infected so a death rate cannot be calculated there

at the very least the assumptions in Ireland and elsewhere should be revisited in the light of this German data

2u2me

Nermal wrote: »

Let's see your data. You're responding to a post with a cite - where's yours?

Just because the death rate may be a lot lower than expected doesn't necessarily mean loosening restrictions being the right course of action.

The logic Turtwig points out is sound, Just look at Italy; over-burdening the hospitals all at once can lead to people dying from very treatable conditions.

[Deleted User]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lGmcVvQl8s

Turtwig

Nermal wrote: »

Let's see your data. You're responding to a post with a cite - where's yours?

You want me to cite what?
Be specific.

[Deleted User]

Nermal wrote: »

Let's see your data. You're responding to a post with a cite - where's yours?

don't be questioning the esteemed self-appointed armchair epidemiologist :pac:

Bridge93

Sweden do not test or record anything outside of their hospitals. Do not take any notice of their numbers. They’ve left swathes of their population to die

Nermal

Turtwig wrote: »

The fatality ratio only applies when there's sufficient healthcare to meet demand.

Let's see your data. You're responding to a post with a cite - where's yours?

Turtwig

Blut2 wrote: »

This is really worth quoting for a new page. We should really be seeing a rapid loosening of restrictions now, given this data.

No you shouldn't. The fatality ratio only applies when there's sufficient healthcare to meet demand. With the extent of community spread in Ireland at the moment it'd be putting our hospitals out to pasture to the point appendicitis could be fatal for people.

Joe_ Public

thebaz wrote: »

Swedish figures today

New cases 466
New deaths 17

Ireland

New cases 839
New deaths. 33

Surely they should be inverted according to experts models ?

That's a drop of around 80% on yesterday's swedish figure i think. Am guessing that's down to weekend reporting procedures.

2u2me

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Even people in Sweden are calling it the "great experiment." I'm happy not to be in a situation where I'm feeling like a lab rat.

In this experiment they would be called the 'control group' !

[Deleted User]

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Well thats the point, bit early maybe to be making arguments for going back to normal when those gaps in knowledgeable remain to be filled in.

decisions will be made regardless. the world can't stand still for ever.

looking like the true infection fatality rate is closer to 0.4 % than 1 to 2%

that changes a lot.