Sweden avoiding lockdown

niallo27 wrote: »

All that said, they should really have a higher death rate than they are saying. Every model has predicted a death rate multiple times higher.

you mean a case fatality rate?

that rate is rubbish because of un-diagnosed cases, unreported cases and low/inconsistent rates of testing.

should be trying to find out the true infection fatality rate as per the German study.

glasso wrote: »

you mean a case fatality rate?

that rate is rubbish because of un-diagnosed cases, unreported cases and low/inconsistent rates of testing.

should be trying to find out the true infection fatality rate as per the German study.

The numbers dead is the numbers dead, it is maybe double what denmarks is but it should be ten fold or more. Just think about actual deaths alone.

If you really want to compare Sweden it shouldn't be with Ireland.

Compare with Finland, who are culturally & geographically the same! Although Sweden's population is approx 10 million, and Finland's is only 5.5million.

Finland brought in restrictions in early March, government buildings closed, schools closed, no gatherings of large amounts of people....
Finland have 49 deaths
Sweden have 887 , or thereabouts

bubblypop wrote: »

If you really want to compare Sweden it shouldn't be with Ireland.

Compare with Finland, who are culturally & geographically the same! Although Sweden's population is approx 10 million, and Finland's is only 5.5million.

Finland brought in restrictions in early March, government buildings closed, schools closed, no gatherings of large amounts of people....
Finland have 49 deaths
Sweden have 887 , or thereabouts

Why not compare it with Denmark its neighbour.

Turtwig

niallo27 wrote: »

The numbers dead is the numbers dead, it is maybe double what Norway's is but it should be ten fold or more. Just think about actual deaths alone.

Their point is that the proportion of people who die vs the total infected in the population is estimated since late Jan early February to be around .5%. Data from Iceland,Germany and South Korea appear to be supporting this. Of course this .5% only applies when the health service is available. If everyone gets sick at once then that .5% increases dramatically.

Sweden is tracking different time wise. Just because numbers are lower/higher doesn't necessarily mean they are better. In two/three weeks the picture will become clearer.

niallo27 wrote: »

Why not compare it with Denmark its neighbour.

Finland is also it's neighbour?

2u2me

bubblypop wrote: »

If you really want to compare Sweden it shouldn't be with Ireland.

Compare with Finland, who are culturally & geographically the same! Although Sweden's population is approx 10 million, and Finland's is only 5.5million.

Finland brought in restrictions in early March, government buildings closed, schools closed, no gatherings of large amounts of people....
Finland have 49 deaths
Sweden have 887 , or thereabouts

It should be noted that on the 6th March Finland had 15 cases whereas Sweden had over 100. Sweden seem to be a little ahead in the timeline.

Turtwig wrote: »

Their point is that the proportion of people who die vs the total infected in the population is estimated since late Jan early February to be around .5%. Data from Iceland,Germany and South Korea appear to be supporting this. Of course this .5% only applies when the health service is available. If everyone gets sick at once then that .5% increases dramatically.

Sweden is tracking different time wise. Just because numbers are lower/higher doesn't necessarily mean they are better. In two/three weeks the picture will become clearer.

I understand what you are saying, I'm not saying the swedish report is correct, I'm happy with what we are doing in this country to a point. What am I saying is if you just talk about actual deaths only, I would have thought by this stage you would have seen thousands more deaths.

niallo27 wrote: »

The numbers dead is the numbers dead, it is maybe double what denmarks is but it should be ten fold or more. Just think about actual deaths alone.

don't say rate then!

a rate is something measured against something else.....

anyways it may be still to early to judge Sweden's figures - another month will give a clearer picture.

2u2me wrote: »

It should be noted that on the 6th March Finland had 15 cases whereas Sweden had over 100. Sweden seem to be a little ahead in the timeline.

& a little over a week later Finland imposed restrictions, which Sweden never did.

glasso wrote: »

don't say rate then!

a rate is something measured against something else.....

anyways it may be still to early to judge Sweden's figures - another month will give a clearer picture.

I meant the death per head of population rate.

sydthebeat

niallo27 wrote: »

I meant the death per head of population rate.

You mean Swedens 88 versus Finland 8??

Who's tackling it better?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8208397/amp/Sweden-sees-just-77-new-deaths-coronavirus.html?__twitter_impression=true

Sweden was always an interesting case as a kind of poster boy for the advocates of keeping economies going. There's not many other examples of countries tackling the virus without a lockdown, south korea never fully did but they had an excellent testing policy that helped them prevent that.

The gloss is now wearing off Sweden somewhat and they may well live to regret their strategy. You might even say they could be doing worse but it's also the case that having one of Europe's lowest population densities is a factor that should be standing to them.

Gary kk

niallo27 wrote: »

We are just delaying the inevitable here, we will all end up going this way. People really need to get their heads out of the sand.

Yeah but its about not overloading the health service

vladmydad

The truth is everyone on here and in other countries are terrified Sweden got it right. There’s a strange kind of Nationalism going on here. People can’t stand the thought that they may have spent weeks in quarantine for nothing, maybe even losing their livelihoods, so they attack the Swedes as a kind of defense mechanism.

vladmydad

vladmydad wrote: »

The truth is everyone on here and in other countries are terrified Sweden got it right. There’s a strange kind of Nationalism going on here. People can’t stand the thought that they may have spent weeks in quarantine for nothing, maybe even losing their livelihoods, so they attack the Swedes as a kind of defense mechanism.

I'm pretty sure nobody is concerned about such a thing. If we'd let it play out, that would be our entire health service collapsed.

sydthebeat

vladmydad wrote: »

The truth is everyone on here and in other countries are terrified Sweden got it right. There’s a strange kind of Nationalism going on here. People can’t stand the thought that they may have spent weeks in quarantine for nothing, maybe even losing their livelihoods, so they attack the Swedes as a kind of defense mechanism.

The figures show that obviously Sweden aren't getting it right.

You might have a point if your base argument wasn't so easily shown to be false

Donald Trump

Do they still do the oul' Eugenics up there?

Wikipedia says they stopped in the '76 ..... well 2012 if you count the people who wanted to do the oul' gender switcheroo

Even people in Sweden are calling it the "great experiment." I'm happy not to be in a situation where I'm feeling like a lab rat.

vladmydad

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm pretty sure nobody is concerned about such a thing. If we'd let it play out, that would be our entire health service collapsed.

There is a barely concealed rooting for Sweden’s failure throughout this thread, Twitter and many other places, that I find disturbing. Admitting we consented to flushing our economy down the toilet may be difficult but wanting Sweden to fail is just nasty.

sydthebeat wrote: »

The figures show that obviously Sweden aren't getting it right.

You might have a point if your base argument wasn't so easily shown to be false

We wont know that until nearer the end of the year though.

Gary kk wrote: »

Yeah but its about not overloading the health service

Is the swedish health service overloaded, genuine question. It should be by now.

vladmydad wrote: »

There is a barely concealed rooting for Sweden’s failure throughout this thread, Twitter and many other places, that I find disturbing. Admitting we consented to flushing our economy down the toilet may be difficult but wanting Sweden to fail is just nasty.

I don't believe people want Sweden to fail. In the same way people criticize the UK response originally.
People don't want to see unnecessary deaths that can be avoided.

metricspaces

sydthebeat wrote: »

The figures show that obviously Sweden aren't getting it right.

All your post shows is you still don't get the point. Comparing apples & oranges. Too early in the game to compare.

Blut2

glasso wrote: »

the Germans immunity tested 80% of a town with about 11,000 population

they were therefore able to get a very accurate picture (obv demographics comes into it) of the infection fatality rate

https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/

Quote:
One often-heard statistic is the "case fatality rate"—that is, the percentage of people diagnosed with a disease who will die of it. This afternoon that figure stands at 3.5 percent for COVID-19 in the U.S., but this rate is significantly inflated because it does not count asymptomatic cases or undiagnosed people who recover at home. What we really need to know is the infection fatality rate: the percentage of all the people infected who eventually die of the disease. That's what the German study attempts to do.

Over the last two weeks, German virologists tested nearly 80 percent of the population of Gangelt for antibodies that indicate whether they'd been infected by the coronavirus. Around 15 percent had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent. The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while.

For comparison, the U.S. infection fatality rates for the 1957–58 flu epidemic was around 0.27 percent; for the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic, it was about 2.6 percent. For seasonal flu, the rate typically averages around 0.1 percent. Basically, the German researchers found that the coronavirus kills about four times as many infected people than seasonal flu viruses do.

The German researchers caution that it would be wrong to extrapolate these regional results to the whole country. But they also believe these findings show that lockdowns can begin to be lifted, as long as people maintain high levels of hygiene to keep COVID-19 under control.

This is really worth quoting for a new page. We should really be seeing a rapid loosening of restrictions now, given this data.

Nermal

sydthebeat wrote: »

The figures show that obviously Sweden aren't getting it right.

You might have a point if your base argument wasn't so easily shown to be false

And you might have a point if success was measured solely in minimising deaths. Not that simple though, is it?

Worth pointing out that having one of best healthcare systems will help them cope. Or at least one of the highest per capita spends anyway.

Blut2 wrote: »

This is really worth quoting for a new page. We should really be seeing a rapid loosening of restrictions now, given this data.

This bit in that article is a little bit vague for my liking:.

"The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while."