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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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Padre_Pio

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Here's something I just looked at

USA
Cases: 426,659 Deaths: 14,632

Spain
Cases: 148,220 Deaths: 14,792

Italy
Cases: 139,422 Deaths: 17,669

See the massive difference between the US and Italy and Spain? There is no way with respect to the US they are so superior that they are keeping their rate so low in relation to the others

That means there has to be far far more infected out there

USA are two weeks behind Italy and Spain.
It's hard to compare USA to other countries, you'd be better picking specific states .

kippy

Padre_Pio wrote: »

USA are two weeks behind Italy and Spain.
It's hard to compare USA to other countries, you'd be better picking specific states .

Yeah, that's the thing, the death rate is lower at the moment but the speed of infection rate is far higher. As the days go by they deaths will run to significant numbers as those who were infected in the past few weeks move through the disease phases.

Thelonious Monk

Morning all. Another beautiful day. Shall we start the arguments then?

JDD

I know there was a recent primetime section on the R0 number, and how restrictions will be gradually lifted once we get the R0 to below 1.

A few questions here:

- We are not comprehensively testing right now. The majority of our tests are directed towards those in hospital, so nearly definitely positive, and healthcare workers showing symptoms (so also, more than likely, positive). If you're in hospital, you've probably had symptoms for at least a week before arrival, and have been contagious for maybe five days before that. The likelihood of you having infected more than one person during that period is really high. Same for the healthcare workers, as obviously they are in work, dealing with lots of different people, along with the normal shopping and what not. So if we keep at the current level of testing, or even a bit more, we'll never get an R0 number of less than 1.

The current testing regime does not take into account individuals who perhaps catch the virus at the supermarket, are keeping to the restriction rules, and get over the virus in a few days. It's unlikely they're passing it to anyone, but they won't be included in the statistics because they will be bottom of the list for a test.

- So say the government take this into account, and come to some other figure, an R0 of 1.5 or 2, while knowing that the R0 is in fact less, and the health service can cope with those numbers and perhaps has a little capacity to take on more if restrictions are somewhat relaxed. Incidentally I don't think this will happen before the end of June to be perfectly honest, and I accept that some form of restrictions will have to remain until a vaccine is available. But I also don't believe we can carry on, economically, psychologically and socially, with the current restrictions beyond 12 weeks.

- So, we accept that some form of restrictions have to remain, but what form do these take? What restrictions are relaxed first? Cocooning? Shops? Schools? Pubs? Gatherings of groups of people? Obviously cocooning has to be first. Nobody can stay in the home, full time, for longer than a month or two. Keep the older people shopping hours, request that they refrain from taking any unnecessary journeys, public transport, etc. But that can't be the only restriction lifted.

- Personally, I think it HAS to be schools, and probably primary schools in the first instance. Secondary school kids are more better able to do online lessons. Primary school kids aren't, and it just isn't feasible to have schools and childcare facilities closed for a year. Most families have two full time working parents, and while you can temporarily work around childcare, accepting that productivity will be massively reduced, but you just can't do it in the medium or long term.

- The thing is, I expect that schools will be the last to open. If you're looking at the economy, the government is paying nearly all the small business wages right now. So it will probably be shops. I think pubs, and large gatherings, will be the last to open.

What do you all think? Do you think that any restrictions will be lifted come summer time? What do you think will be first?

bladespin

Tenzor07 wrote: »

A restriction that makes sense:

off-licences-should-close-during-covid-19-crisis-says-public-health-expert-

I've yet to hear of one case of transmission through an offy,

Tacitus Kilgore

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Morning all. Another beautiful day. Shall we start the arguments then?

FFS, No, I mean, yes, no - wait

NO :mad::mad:

Thelonious Monk

bladespin wrote: »

I've yet to hear of one case of transmission through an offy,

I think it would be a huge blow and too much to ask to take booze away right now. I'm trying not to drink much during this myself but I like knowing the option is there.

ITman88

DeVore wrote: »

"sports and concerts" being a thing of the past is nonsense and silly imho.

There are much more virulent and deadly diseases than Covid and we live with them. We will build herd immunity, slowly. We'll develop treatments and vaccines. We'll go back to normal or something like it in time. We just need to do it slowly.

The restrictions have changed some lives more than others.

We have 850k on the unemployment benefit.
Who may/may not have a job back.

Hotels and tourism has 11m visitors last year. That’s not coming back this year.
Airlines will collapse by May/June ending cheap travel.

Sport/concerts relies on disposable income. Those who kept jobs have disposable income built up, 850k have not. Premier league clubs are under unbelievable financial strain, and they are built on fans using disposable income to attend matches/buy merchandise.

We are not living with Covid, we are static, and it appears we will remain static for some time.

People are have been driven to a state of hysteria by the media and have lost all confidence to stand beside a stranger.

KrustyUCC

Nic ola 1 wrote: »

Question for anyone, why are off licences still open,?how are they essential?

Why do you think they shouldn't be open?

Theboinkmaster

Padre_Pio wrote: »

USA are two weeks behind Italy and Spain.
It's hard to compare USA to other countries, you'd be better picking specific states .

Exactly - you cannot compare those countries as they're at different stages of the infection. Spain and Italy have peaked and reducing but USA is just getting started so their deaths are going to increase significantly.

Theboinkmaster

bladespin wrote: »

I've yet to hear of one case of transmission through an offy,

How people are exactly infected is not known/reported so no real surprise there eh :rolleyes:

[Deleted User]

JDD wrote: »

I know there was a recent primetime section on the R0 number, and how restrictions will be gradually lifted once we get the R0 to below 1.

A few questions here:

- We are not comprehensively testing right now. The majority of our tests are directed towards those in hospital, so nearly definitely positive, and healthcare workers showing symptoms (so also, more than likely, positive). If you're in hospital, you've probably had symptoms for at least a week before arrival, and have been contagious for maybe five days before that. The likelihood of you having infected more than one person during that period is really high. Same for the healthcare workers, as obviously they are in work, dealing with lots of different people, along with the normal shopping and what not. So if we keep at the current level of testing, or even a bit more, we'll never get an R0 number of less than 1.

The current testing regime does not take into account individuals who perhaps catch the virus at the supermarket, are keeping to the restriction rules, and get over the virus in a few days. It's unlikely they're passing it to anyone, but they won't be included in the statistics because they will be bottom of the list for a test.

- So say the government take this into account, and come to some other figure, an R0 of 1.5 or 2, while knowing that the R0 is in fact less, and the health service can cope with those numbers and perhaps has a little capacity to take on more if restrictions are somewhat relaxed. Incidentally I don't think this will happen before the end of June to be perfectly honest, and I accept that some form of restrictions will have to remain until a vaccine is available. But I also don't believe we can carry on, economically, psychologically and socially, with the current restrictions beyond 12 weeks.

- So, we accept that some form of restrictions have to remain, but what form do these take? What restrictions are relaxed first? Cocooning? Shops? Schools? Pubs? Gatherings of groups of people? Obviously cocooning has to be first. Nobody can stay in the home, full time, for longer than a month or two. Keep the older people shopping hours, request that they refrain from taking any unnecessary journeys, public transport, etc. But that can't be the only restriction lifted.

- Personally, I think it HAS to be schools, and probably primary schools in the first instance. Secondary school kids are more better able to do online lessons. Primary school kids aren't, and it just isn't feasible to have schools and childcare facilities closed for a year. Most families have two full time working parents, and while you can temporarily work around childcare, accepting that productivity will be massively reduced, but you just can't do it in the medium or long term.

- The thing is, I expect that schools will be the last to open. If you're looking at the economy, the government is paying nearly all the small business wages right now. So it will probably be shops. I think pubs, and large gatherings, will be the last to open.

What do you all think? Do you think that any restrictions will be lifted come summer time? What do you think will be first?

I think the likes of garden centres and more outdoorsy places will be the first to have restrictions lifted, partly because they pose a little less risk, but also because gardening, outdoors pursuits boost morale and general health. I reckon that cafes which can offer outdoor seating (maybe under a shelter) may be allowed operate. Likes of the Festival in St Annes Park, Raheny, might possibly be allowed go ahead. Kayaking, horse riding, sea swimming may be ok.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Period of weeks means maximum of 3 to me...most likely 2.

Nermal

Ioannidis again:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1

"People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in the hotbeds of the pandemic and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic."

bladespin

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

How people are exactly infected is not known/reported so no real surprise there eh :rolleyes:

No reason to close them then, I'm very sure the HSE would ask for a closure if they considered them a risk.

ITman88

Amia Thundering Engineer wrote: »

Period of weeks means maximum of 3 to me...most likely 2.

Was on the main thread for a read.

More suggestions of lockdowns for 18 months until a vaccine is found.

It simply can’t happen.

Poland easing restrictions after Monday because of the economic carnage.

We need to loosen restrictions in the next week/fortnight.

The lockdown fanatics can put a white flag outside their homes. They can cocoon.

We need a different approach

KrustyUCC

Amia Thundering Engineer wrote: »

Period of weeks means maximum of 3 to me...most likely 2.

Minimum of 2 which will bring the latest restrictions over 4 weeks

The maximum could be anything unfortunately

jmayo

niallo27 wrote: »

Is there any country that actually doing well.

Well officially China is doing ok.
And they are saving the world now selling them PPE and test kits.

Never mind that the PPE is substandard and sometimes nearly half the test kits are faulty.

It's the thought that counts.

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Turkmenistan has reported no cases.

Head there, put your feet up, have a few pints, praise their glorious leader and if you get a fever, followed by severe pneumonia and end up in a ICU bed there, don't mention the c word.

Just to lighten the mood and to make all those stir crazy anti-lockdowners feel better, county yourself lucky you don't live in Turkmenistan.

The current leader, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, once a dentist and head of dept of health which carried out his predecessors bright idea to close all rural hospitals and only have them in the Capital city and major regional towns.
The plan was centralisation of services.
The HSE hierarchy would have loved his plans on creation of centres of excellence.

Berdimuhamedow (I dare anyone to pronounce it) is a bit of an old totalitarian but he is very very popular getting 97% of the vote.

He writes books, songs and does a bit of DJing.

Now to be fair he reversed some of the weird changes of his predecessor, Saparmurat Saparmurat Niyazov, who makes him look like a paragon of sanity.
Not alone did Niyazov close hospitals, he chopped pensions of 100,000, forced people to read and study his autobiography which led to people being examined on it in interviews for state jobs.
And his biggest claim to fame was his idea to rename the days of week and months of year after family and terms in his autobiography.

Now old Niyazov did have some good ideas.
He banned lip syncing at concerts and who could argue with that.
He banned dogs from the capital, no more dog shyte on the footpath.
He banned smoking in public and in government offices, and he banned chewing tobacco.
He banned news reporters and presenters from using makeup while on TV.
He outlawed opera and ballet.
He banned the Turkmen word for bread and named it after his mother.

Nice he showed his appreciation for his mother.

Corona would seem to be the least of the issues facing Turkmenistan's population.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Minimum of 2 which will bring the latest restrictions over 4 weeks

The maximum could be anything unfortunately

Can't really be anything & it won't be. People won't accept it and the minister said as much.

You get the impression, some are weirdly hoping for a longer lockdown in this thread...

Plumbthedepths

If this is the plan the economy is destroyed for good.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/impossible-to-put-time-limit-on-coronavirus-restrictions-39115323.html

Cyrus

Holohan isnt inspiring confidence, he is also partially responsible for these nursing home clusters.

Plumbthedepths

Sky news looks at the long-term.

http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-health-effects-of-a-covid-19-recession-could-be-worse-than-the-pandemic-11970815

ITman88

Amia Thundering Engineer wrote: »

You get the impression, some are weirdly hoping for a longer lockdown in this thread...

Another poster alluded to it, the scariest thing about Covid is people’s lack of ability to think for themselves.

On the other hand if you convince people something is bad enough, they will beg for protection at all costs.

That’s what’s happening, people are so utterly petrified from the media whipping up a storm that they genuinely believe it is worth crippling the economy long term to prevent pain in the short term.

They can’t see the wood from the trees with Covid.

The wood form the trees will be quiet clear when social welfare benefit is cut and the health care budget is halved.

lainey_d_123

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Minimum of 2 which will bring the latest restrictions over 4 weeks

The maximum could be anything unfortunately

I'd be very surprised if the current level of restrictions were eased in anything less than a month, either in the UK or Ireland. I'm not expecting to see any different until well into May, and even then it'll be limited and staggered reopenings, IMO.

rusty the athlete

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

If this is the plan the economy is destroyed for good.

As well as the psychological and physical well-being of many, cocoonees in particular.

TheCitizen

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

If this is the plan the economy is destroyed for good.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/impossible-to-put-time-limit-on-coronavirus-restrictions-39115323.html

There is nothing destroyed for good. They're dealing with an emerging situation, as time goes on other considerations come into play.

ITman88

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

If this is the plan the economy is destroyed for good.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/impossible-to-put-time-limit-on-coronavirus-restrictions-39115323.html

Ah FFS.

Not a plan in the world.

At some point, someone somewhere in Ireland needs to suggest an economic assessment.

Media loving doctors will not preform that economic assessment.

Thelonious Monk

jmayo wrote: »

Just to lighten the mood and to make all those stir crazy anti-lockdowners feel better, county yourself lucky you don't live in Turkmenistan...

Didn't he put a tax on beards too?
If you have seen Dark Tourist on Netflix, there's an episode where he goes there, it's a crazy weird place, the capital is like some weird Las Vegas in an alternate universe.

KiKi III

ITman88 wrote: »

Was on the main thread for a read.

More suggestions of lockdowns for 18 months until a vaccine is found.

It simply can’t happen.

Poland easing restrictions after Monday because of the economic carnage.

We need to loosen restrictions in the next week/fortnight.

The lockdown fanatics can put a white flag outside their homes. They can cocoon.

We need a different approach

You're right. It can't, and it won't. Public policy isn't decided by that Boards thread. Don't be freaking yourself out over something that's blatantly not going to happen.

KrustyUCC

Amia Thundering Engineer wrote: »

Can't really be anything & it won't be. People won't accept it and the minister said as much.

You get the impression, some are weirdly hoping for a longer lockdown in this thread...

I think they will go for at least another month

Look at the way these restrictions were up until Easter Sunday. All week softening people up. We're doing really well, it's working but not enough. Announcement Friday. Extend to May Bank Holiday

Forward two weeks. We're doing really well, it's working but not enough. Announcement Friday. Two more weeks

I'm def not one of those wanting a longer lockdown

The sooner restrictions are lifted the better but I fear its a long way off