nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

bladespin

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

How people are exactly infected is not known/reported so no real surprise there eh :rolleyes:

No reason to close them then, I'm very sure the HSE would ask for a closure if they considered them a risk.

Nermal

Ioannidis again:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1

"People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in the hotbeds of the pandemic and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic."

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Period of weeks means maximum of 3 to me...most likely 2.

[Deleted User]

JDD wrote: »

I know there was a recent primetime section on the R0 number, and how restrictions will be gradually lifted once we get the R0 to below 1.

A few questions here:

- We are not comprehensively testing right now. The majority of our tests are directed towards those in hospital, so nearly definitely positive, and healthcare workers showing symptoms (so also, more than likely, positive). If you're in hospital, you've probably had symptoms for at least a week before arrival, and have been contagious for maybe five days before that. The likelihood of you having infected more than one person during that period is really high. Same for the healthcare workers, as obviously they are in work, dealing with lots of different people, along with the normal shopping and what not. So if we keep at the current level of testing, or even a bit more, we'll never get an R0 number of less than 1.

The current testing regime does not take into account individuals who perhaps catch the virus at the supermarket, are keeping to the restriction rules, and get over the virus in a few days. It's unlikely they're passing it to anyone, but they won't be included in the statistics because they will be bottom of the list for a test.

- So say the government take this into account, and come to some other figure, an R0 of 1.5 or 2, while knowing that the R0 is in fact less, and the health service can cope with those numbers and perhaps has a little capacity to take on more if restrictions are somewhat relaxed. Incidentally I don't think this will happen before the end of June to be perfectly honest, and I accept that some form of restrictions will have to remain until a vaccine is available. But I also don't believe we can carry on, economically, psychologically and socially, with the current restrictions beyond 12 weeks.

- So, we accept that some form of restrictions have to remain, but what form do these take? What restrictions are relaxed first? Cocooning? Shops? Schools? Pubs? Gatherings of groups of people? Obviously cocooning has to be first. Nobody can stay in the home, full time, for longer than a month or two. Keep the older people shopping hours, request that they refrain from taking any unnecessary journeys, public transport, etc. But that can't be the only restriction lifted.

- Personally, I think it HAS to be schools, and probably primary schools in the first instance. Secondary school kids are more better able to do online lessons. Primary school kids aren't, and it just isn't feasible to have schools and childcare facilities closed for a year. Most families have two full time working parents, and while you can temporarily work around childcare, accepting that productivity will be massively reduced, but you just can't do it in the medium or long term.

- The thing is, I expect that schools will be the last to open. If you're looking at the economy, the government is paying nearly all the small business wages right now. So it will probably be shops. I think pubs, and large gatherings, will be the last to open.

What do you all think? Do you think that any restrictions will be lifted come summer time? What do you think will be first?

I think the likes of garden centres and more outdoorsy places will be the first to have restrictions lifted, partly because they pose a little less risk, but also because gardening, outdoors pursuits boost morale and general health. I reckon that cafes which can offer outdoor seating (maybe under a shelter) may be allowed operate. Likes of the Festival in St Annes Park, Raheny, might possibly be allowed go ahead. Kayaking, horse riding, sea swimming may be ok.

Theboinkmaster

bladespin wrote: »

I've yet to hear of one case of transmission through an offy,

How people are exactly infected is not known/reported so no real surprise there eh :rolleyes:

Theboinkmaster

Padre_Pio wrote: »

USA are two weeks behind Italy and Spain.
It's hard to compare USA to other countries, you'd be better picking specific states .

Exactly - you cannot compare those countries as they're at different stages of the infection. Spain and Italy have peaked and reducing but USA is just getting started so their deaths are going to increase significantly.

KrustyUCC

Nic ola 1 wrote: »

Question for anyone, why are off licences still open,?how are they essential?

Why do you think they shouldn't be open?

ITman88

DeVore wrote: »

"sports and concerts" being a thing of the past is nonsense and silly imho.

There are much more virulent and deadly diseases than Covid and we live with them. We will build herd immunity, slowly. We'll develop treatments and vaccines. We'll go back to normal or something like it in time. We just need to do it slowly.

The restrictions have changed some lives more than others.

We have 850k on the unemployment benefit.
Who may/may not have a job back.

Hotels and tourism has 11m visitors last year. That’s not coming back this year.
Airlines will collapse by May/June ending cheap travel.

Sport/concerts relies on disposable income. Those who kept jobs have disposable income built up, 850k have not. Premier league clubs are under unbelievable financial strain, and they are built on fans using disposable income to attend matches/buy merchandise.

We are not living with Covid, we are static, and it appears we will remain static for some time.

People are have been driven to a state of hysteria by the media and have lost all confidence to stand beside a stranger.

Thelonious Monk

bladespin wrote: »

I've yet to hear of one case of transmission through an offy,

I think it would be a huge blow and too much to ask to take booze away right now. I'm trying not to drink much during this myself but I like knowing the option is there.

Tacitus Kilgore

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Morning all. Another beautiful day. Shall we start the arguments then?

FFS, No, I mean, yes, no - wait

NO :mad::mad:

bladespin

Tenzor07 wrote: »

A restriction that makes sense:

off-licences-should-close-during-covid-19-crisis-says-public-health-expert-

I've yet to hear of one case of transmission through an offy,

JDD

I know there was a recent primetime section on the R0 number, and how restrictions will be gradually lifted once we get the R0 to below 1.

A few questions here:

- We are not comprehensively testing right now. The majority of our tests are directed towards those in hospital, so nearly definitely positive, and healthcare workers showing symptoms (so also, more than likely, positive). If you're in hospital, you've probably had symptoms for at least a week before arrival, and have been contagious for maybe five days before that. The likelihood of you having infected more than one person during that period is really high. Same for the healthcare workers, as obviously they are in work, dealing with lots of different people, along with the normal shopping and what not. So if we keep at the current level of testing, or even a bit more, we'll never get an R0 number of less than 1.

The current testing regime does not take into account individuals who perhaps catch the virus at the supermarket, are keeping to the restriction rules, and get over the virus in a few days. It's unlikely they're passing it to anyone, but they won't be included in the statistics because they will be bottom of the list for a test.

- So say the government take this into account, and come to some other figure, an R0 of 1.5 or 2, while knowing that the R0 is in fact less, and the health service can cope with those numbers and perhaps has a little capacity to take on more if restrictions are somewhat relaxed. Incidentally I don't think this will happen before the end of June to be perfectly honest, and I accept that some form of restrictions will have to remain until a vaccine is available. But I also don't believe we can carry on, economically, psychologically and socially, with the current restrictions beyond 12 weeks.

- So, we accept that some form of restrictions have to remain, but what form do these take? What restrictions are relaxed first? Cocooning? Shops? Schools? Pubs? Gatherings of groups of people? Obviously cocooning has to be first. Nobody can stay in the home, full time, for longer than a month or two. Keep the older people shopping hours, request that they refrain from taking any unnecessary journeys, public transport, etc. But that can't be the only restriction lifted.

- Personally, I think it HAS to be schools, and probably primary schools in the first instance. Secondary school kids are more better able to do online lessons. Primary school kids aren't, and it just isn't feasible to have schools and childcare facilities closed for a year. Most families have two full time working parents, and while you can temporarily work around childcare, accepting that productivity will be massively reduced, but you just can't do it in the medium or long term.

- The thing is, I expect that schools will be the last to open. If you're looking at the economy, the government is paying nearly all the small business wages right now. So it will probably be shops. I think pubs, and large gatherings, will be the last to open.

What do you all think? Do you think that any restrictions will be lifted come summer time? What do you think will be first?

Thelonious Monk

Morning all. Another beautiful day. Shall we start the arguments then?

kippy

Padre_Pio wrote: »

USA are two weeks behind Italy and Spain.
It's hard to compare USA to other countries, you'd be better picking specific states .

Yeah, that's the thing, the death rate is lower at the moment but the speed of infection rate is far higher. As the days go by they deaths will run to significant numbers as those who were infected in the past few weeks move through the disease phases.

Padre_Pio

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Here's something I just looked at

USA
Cases: 426,659 Deaths: 14,632

Spain
Cases: 148,220 Deaths: 14,792

Italy
Cases: 139,422 Deaths: 17,669

See the massive difference between the US and Italy and Spain? There is no way with respect to the US they are so superior that they are keeping their rate so low in relation to the others

That means there has to be far far more infected out there

USA are two weeks behind Italy and Spain.
It's hard to compare USA to other countries, you'd be better picking specific states .

Nermal

Diarmuid wrote: »

Just the correct your statement

Accepted - done.

salmocab

Bumped into a pal this morning that’s a front line worker, his thinking is things will stay the same until after may bank holiday. As that would be a prime time to spread it around. To be clear it was his opinion not claiming he has any inside information beyond what he’s seeing on a daily basis.

KiKi III

Slightly off topic but as regards the stats I don’t think 65+ is useful anymore.

It should be broken down further into:
• 65-74
• 75-84
• 85+

Having those three groups lumped together skews the stars and doesn’t really make sense these days. The average 65 year old and the average 85 year old don’t belong in the same category.

BanditLuke

DeVore wrote: »

"sports and concerts" being a thing of the past is nonsense and silly imho.

There are much more virulent and deadly diseases than Covid and we live with them. We will build herd immunity, slowly. We'll develop treatments and vaccines. We'll go back to normal or something like it in time. We just need to do it slowly.

Of course they aren't a thing of the past long term but im still hearing people say stuff like maybe i'll get to see that concert in August or can't wait to go to see Dublin play at a packed croker in september etc..

Large gatherings are finished until we get the vaccine so i'd be very surprised if we see any concerts or big sports events here for at least the next year.

There is no chance that we can take the risk of 50k people in a venue and see a surge in the spread again putting us all through weeks of lockdown crashing the economy again so someone can see lads kick a football around a pitch.

is_that_so

Diarmuid wrote: »

Wrong. Case have peaked. We won't have 6 weeks of current restrictions.

That peak is based on the report this week from the Washington group. The CMO and Glynn gave its conclusions on Ireland short shrift during the week. That said, it has a lot more data on both Italy and Spain and may be more accurate there.

ixoy

DeVore wrote: »

"sports and concerts" being a thing of the past is nonsense and silly imho.

There are much more virulent and deadly diseases than Covid and we live with them. We will build herd immunity, slowly. We'll develop treatments and vaccines. We'll go back to normal or something like it in time. We just need to do it slowly.

This. I believe we'll be back in restaurants, travelling again, etc but it's just a matter of when. We're just now heading into the worst of it but we'll come out the other side as we have with all other crises that hit us.

[Deleted User]

DeVore wrote: »

"sports and concerts" being a thing of the past is nonsense and silly imho.

There are much more virulent and deadly diseases than Covid and we live with them. We will build herd immunity, slowly. We'll develop treatments and vaccines. We'll go back to normal or something like it in time. We just need to do it slowly.

Think most likely thing is a lot of events will be curtailed for next year. If we have any sense we'll invest heavily in virology and the tracking of potential pandemics. On a global scale obviously, catching before it becomes an issue is only way.

DeVore

"sports and concerts" being a thing of the past is nonsense and silly imho.

There are much more virulent and deadly diseases than Covid and we live with them. We will build herd immunity, slowly. We'll develop treatments and vaccines. We'll go back to normal or something like it in time. We just need to do it slowly.

ITman88

Naked Lepper wrote: »

grim reading in the journal article this morning
'embracing the new normal' - written by an irish guy in wuhan

basically saying professional sports and concerts are a thing of the past
not sure if this is the reality he secretly seems to want as he kind of alluded to it not being a bad thing but the idea of never having live concerts, cinema, sporting events, big gatherings sounds incredibly **** and not a place i want to live or to bring kids up in, scary thoughts

https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/greg-mcdonough-wuhan-province-5067828-Apr2020/

I believe the birth rate will plummet.

Who will bring up kids in that?

Naked Lepper

grim reading in the journal article this morning
'embracing the new normal' - written by an irish guy in wuhan

basically saying professional sports and concerts are a thing of the past
not sure if this is the reality he secretly seems to want as he kind of alluded to it not being a bad thing but the idea of never having live concerts, cinema, sporting events, big gatherings sounds incredibly **** and not a place i want to live or to bring kids up in, scary thoughts

https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/greg-mcdonough-wuhan-province-5067828-Apr2020/

FloatingVoter

Nic ola 1 wrote: »

I think we have at least 4 to 6 more weeks at the current level or restrictions. We haven’t peaked yet. Question for anyone, why are off licences still open,?how are they essential?

Mental health. A lot of people trapped on their own (myself included) use alcohol as a crutch to get through dark times. This isn't new to me, just a succession of bad days repeated.
It is also not a time to peddle other agendas. The anti-vaccination crowd have headed for the hills along with the shinnerbots. The temperance movement should really take a break.

Diarmuid

Nic ola 1 wrote: »

I think we have at least 4 to 6 more weeks at the current level or restrictions. We haven’t peaked yet. Question for anyone, why are off licences still open,?how are they essential?

Wrong. Case have peaked. We won't have 6 weeks of current restrictions.

Nic ola 1

I think we have at least 4 to 6 more weeks at the current level or restrictions. We haven’t peaked yet. Question for anyone, why are off licences still open,?how are they essential?

Diarmuid

Nermal wrote: »

New, really high 5.7 estimate of R0 from the CDC: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

To be clear, this isn't from the CDC. It's published on their website with this disclaimer
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.

That's not the say it's wrong or inaccurate. Just the correct your statement

Nermal

New, really high 5.7 estimate of R0: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

The only way to get it below 1 is full lockdown. Not sustainable.

Not helpful for gaining herd immunity either, since the fraction of the population that have to be infected goes up.

Michael Burry, he of the big short, on our side:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-short-investor-who-made-a-killing-during-the-financial-crisis-the-economic-shutdown-is-worse-than-the-coronavirus-2020-04-07?reflink=mw_share_twitter