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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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polesheep

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Here's something I just looked at

USA
Cases: 426,659 Deaths: 14,632

Spain
Cases: 148,220 Deaths: 14,792

Italy
Cases: 139,422 Deaths: 17,669

See the massive difference between the US and Italy and Spain? There is no way with respect to the US they are so superior that they are keeping their rate so low in relation to the others

That means there has to be far far more infected out there

Or something unique to Spain and Italy. I'd give my right arm to be a PhD student of epidemiology, immunology or virology right now. The thesis would almost write itself.

Ulysses Gaze

Ok...if they close the offies, who will be our Beer Baron?

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Plumbthedepths

polesheep wrote: »

Or something unique to Spain and Italy. I'd give my right arm to be a PhD student of epidemiology, immunology or virology right now. The thesis would almost write itself.

Societal behaviour is also a factor. Southern Europeans tend to be more touchy feely than their northern counterparts. I can't speak for Spain but my knowledge of Italy is intergenerational living is very common several generations of the one family living under the same roof. They like to keep their older family with them. There closeness has caused alot of their death toll. I look forward to when I can go back to my friends in Lucca and Naples but I suspect it will be at least a year or two before travel without restrictions opens up.

normanoffside

The reason they came up with the theory in Spain from what I know is that they were testing all the nurses and doctors routinely and they were generally showing high rates of positives to low rates or symptoms.

When they can work out how many of the health care people would ‘actually’ have been tested given the symptoms they were showing then they can see how many are going unnoticed.

For example. They test 50 nurses and 16 are positive.
However only one of the 16 is showing symptoms enough to have met the normal testing criteria.
You can therefore extrapolate that 15 out of 16 infected people in the normal populace are also going unnoticed.

Jurgen Klopp

polesheep wrote: »

Or something unique to Spain and Italy. I'd give my right arm to be a PhD student of epidemiology, immunology or virology right now. The thesis would almost write itself.

Well if that's the case I'll give you

Germany
C:113,292

2,349

UK
C: 60,733

7,097

Turkey
C: 38,226

812

Netherlands
C: 20,549

2,238

It would mean something is wrong in Italy and Spain compared to the US, but also compared to Germany and Turkey

But yet something unique is spectacularly wrong with with the UK and the Netherlands compared to the US, Germany and Turkey

I just can't see anything other than this being way more widespread than we know

normanoffside

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Societal behaviour is also a factor. Southern Europeans tend to be more touchy feely than their northern counterparts. I can't speak for Spain but my knowledge of Italy is intergenerational living is very common several generations of the one family living under the same roof. They like to keep their older family with them. There closeness has caused alot of their death toll. I look forward to when I can go back to my friends in Lucca and Naples but I suspect it will be at least a year or two before travel without restrictions opens up.

Having lived in both countries, Spanish are even more tactile than the Italians.

polesheep

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Societal behaviour is also a factor. Southern Europeans tend to be more touchy feely than their northern counterparts. I can't speak for Spain but my knowledge of Italy is intergenerational living is very common several generations of the one family living under the same roof. They like to keep their older family with them. There closeness has caused alot of their death toll. I look forward to when I can go back to my friends in Lucca and Naples but I suspect it will be at least a year or two before travel without restrictions opens up.

I'm booked to go back there in early September. I hope I can. As much for their sake as for mine. It's a tragedy that their beautiful three generational family households have been hit by this. I think it is a very civilised way to live and I'm not ashamed to say that I copied them.

ITman88

polesheep wrote: »

Or something unique to Spain and Italy. I'd give my right arm to be a PhD student of epidemiology, immunology or virology right now. The thesis would almost write itself.

Italy age profile.

There has be many studies done on it
1 in 4 over 65.

15 million Italians over 65

3 times our total population over 65

You can see why the death stats are so bad over there.

lbj666

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Close them this weekend, the amount of people i've seen buying slabs of cheap booze, who are going to sit at home and drink all day..
It will lead to an increase in alcohol related violence in the home also.

So close the offies and instigate panic buying this weekend?

They are open due to the impracticalities and dangers of crowding by closing them.

Our quest to quel our traditionally biggest health issue (drink) has to take a backseat for more immediate concerns.

polesheep

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Well if that's the case I'll give you

Germany
C:113,292
2,349

UK
C: 60,733
7,097

Turkey
C: 38,226
812

Netherlands
C: 20,549
2,238

It would mean something is wrong in Italy and Spain compared to the US, but also compared to Germany and Turkey

But yet something unique is spectacularly wrong with with the UK and the Netherlands compared to the US

I just can't see anything other than this being way more widespread than we know

As I said, a great time to be involved in the relevant sciences.

Jurgen Klopp

normanoffside wrote: »

The reason they came up with the theory in Spain from what I know is that they were testing all the nurses and doctors routinely and they were generally showing high rates of positives to low rates or symptoms.

When they can work out how many of the health care people would ‘actually’ have been tested given the symptoms they were showing then they can see how many are going unnoticed.

For example. They test 50 nurses and 16 are positive.
However only one of the 16 is showing symptoms enough to have met the normal testing criteria.
You can therefore extrapolate that 15 out of 16 infected people in the normal populace are also going unnoticed.

And to think they are dealing with higher doses of viral loads, interesting.

normanoffside

As I have pointed out in the mathematical thread.
Iceland is the biggest outlier but also the country which by far has the highest test per head of population (close to 5%)

1,300+ cases and only 6 deaths.

A death rate of 0.37%

That’s likely to be closer to correct death rate (barring some genetically/societal reason) and yet still under reported due to the fact that people with symptoms are much more likely to have been tested.

ITman88

polesheep wrote: »

Or something unique to Spain and Italy. I'd give my right arm to be a PhD student of epidemiology, immunology or virology right now. The thesis would almost write itself.

Also if one applies the most at risk population stats to compare Ireland and Italy we should peak at 40 daily deaths. Most deaths are over 65

15,000,000 Italians over 65, peak 1000 deaths per day

600,000 Irish over 65, peak 40 deaths per day

Obviously not highly accurate

Jurgen Klopp

normanoffside wrote: »

As I have pointed out in the mathematical thread.
Iceland is the biggest outlier but also the country which by far has the highest test per head of population (close to 5%)

1,300+ cases and only 6 deaths.

A death rate of 0.37%

That’s likely to be closer to correct death rate (barring some genetically/societal reason) and yet still under reported due to the fact that people with symptoms are much more likely to have been tested.

Missed this from March 24th

Italian official said their real numbers are most likely 10 times higher than reported

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-24/italy-virus-cases-10-times-higher-than-reported-repubblica-says

Things beginning to look very interesting

Idbatterim

The below is comparing 2017 to 2019! but it will be bloody interesting to see, what these numbers look like in a few months! Dependign on how things pan out...

"Suicides in England soar to record levels with 1,400 recorded in three months - up a quarter in two years - with 75% of victims male and biggest rise among men in their 50s
The Office for National Statistics is finalising suicide numbers recorded in 2019
Early figures claim the end of 2019 saw the highest suicide figures for 19 years
Men in their early 50s were most likely to take their own lives the figures show
The north east of England saw the highest number of suicides during late 2019"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8201091/Suicides-soar-record-levels-England-late-2019.html?ito=push-notification&ci=12537&si=5396931

Nermal

New, really high 5.7 estimate of R0: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

The only way to get it below 1 is full lockdown. Not sustainable.

Not helpful for gaining herd immunity either, since the fraction of the population that have to be infected goes up.

Michael Burry, he of the big short, on our side:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-short-investor-who-made-a-killing-during-the-financial-crisis-the-economic-shutdown-is-worse-than-the-coronavirus-2020-04-07?reflink=mw_share_twitter

Diarmuid

Nermal wrote: »

New, really high 5.7 estimate of R0 from the CDC: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

To be clear, this isn't from the CDC. It's published on their website with this disclaimer
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.

That's not the say it's wrong or inaccurate. Just the correct your statement

Nic ola 1

I think we have at least 4 to 6 more weeks at the current level or restrictions. We haven’t peaked yet. Question for anyone, why are off licences still open,?how are they essential?

Diarmuid

Nic ola 1 wrote: »

I think we have at least 4 to 6 more weeks at the current level or restrictions. We haven’t peaked yet. Question for anyone, why are off licences still open,?how are they essential?

Wrong. Case have peaked. We won't have 6 weeks of current restrictions.

FloatingVoter

Nic ola 1 wrote: »

I think we have at least 4 to 6 more weeks at the current level or restrictions. We haven’t peaked yet. Question for anyone, why are off licences still open,?how are they essential?

Mental health. A lot of people trapped on their own (myself included) use alcohol as a crutch to get through dark times. This isn't new to me, just a succession of bad days repeated.
It is also not a time to peddle other agendas. The anti-vaccination crowd have headed for the hills along with the shinnerbots. The temperance movement should really take a break.

Naked Lepper

grim reading in the journal article this morning
'embracing the new normal' - written by an irish guy in wuhan

basically saying professional sports and concerts are a thing of the past
not sure if this is the reality he secretly seems to want as he kind of alluded to it not being a bad thing but the idea of never having live concerts, cinema, sporting events, big gatherings sounds incredibly **** and not a place i want to live or to bring kids up in, scary thoughts

https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/greg-mcdonough-wuhan-province-5067828-Apr2020/

ITman88

Naked Lepper wrote: »

grim reading in the journal article this morning
'embracing the new normal' - written by an irish guy in wuhan

basically saying professional sports and concerts are a thing of the past
not sure if this is the reality he secretly seems to want as he kind of alluded to it not being a bad thing but the idea of never having live concerts, cinema, sporting events, big gatherings sounds incredibly **** and not a place i want to live or to bring kids up in, scary thoughts

https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/greg-mcdonough-wuhan-province-5067828-Apr2020/

I believe the birth rate will plummet.

Who will bring up kids in that?

DeVore

"sports and concerts" being a thing of the past is nonsense and silly imho.

There are much more virulent and deadly diseases than Covid and we live with them. We will build herd immunity, slowly. We'll develop treatments and vaccines. We'll go back to normal or something like it in time. We just need to do it slowly.

[Deleted User]

DeVore wrote: »

"sports and concerts" being a thing of the past is nonsense and silly imho.

There are much more virulent and deadly diseases than Covid and we live with them. We will build herd immunity, slowly. We'll develop treatments and vaccines. We'll go back to normal or something like it in time. We just need to do it slowly.

Think most likely thing is a lot of events will be curtailed for next year. If we have any sense we'll invest heavily in virology and the tracking of potential pandemics. On a global scale obviously, catching before it becomes an issue is only way.

ixoy

DeVore wrote: »

"sports and concerts" being a thing of the past is nonsense and silly imho.

There are much more virulent and deadly diseases than Covid and we live with them. We will build herd immunity, slowly. We'll develop treatments and vaccines. We'll go back to normal or something like it in time. We just need to do it slowly.

This. I believe we'll be back in restaurants, travelling again, etc but it's just a matter of when. We're just now heading into the worst of it but we'll come out the other side as we have with all other crises that hit us.

is_that_so

Diarmuid wrote: »

Wrong. Case have peaked. We won't have 6 weeks of current restrictions.

That peak is based on the report this week from the Washington group. The CMO and Glynn gave its conclusions on Ireland short shrift during the week. That said, it has a lot more data on both Italy and Spain and may be more accurate there.

BanditLuke

DeVore wrote: »

"sports and concerts" being a thing of the past is nonsense and silly imho.

There are much more virulent and deadly diseases than Covid and we live with them. We will build herd immunity, slowly. We'll develop treatments and vaccines. We'll go back to normal or something like it in time. We just need to do it slowly.

Of course they aren't a thing of the past long term but im still hearing people say stuff like maybe i'll get to see that concert in August or can't wait to go to see Dublin play at a packed croker in september etc..

Large gatherings are finished until we get the vaccine so i'd be very surprised if we see any concerts or big sports events here for at least the next year.

There is no chance that we can take the risk of 50k people in a venue and see a surge in the spread again putting us all through weeks of lockdown crashing the economy again so someone can see lads kick a football around a pitch.

KiKi III

Slightly off topic but as regards the stats I don’t think 65+ is useful anymore.

It should be broken down further into:
• 65-74
• 75-84
• 85+

Having those three groups lumped together skews the stars and doesn’t really make sense these days. The average 65 year old and the average 85 year old don’t belong in the same category.

salmocab

Bumped into a pal this morning that’s a front line worker, his thinking is things will stay the same until after may bank holiday. As that would be a prime time to spread it around. To be clear it was his opinion not claiming he has any inside information beyond what he’s seeing on a daily basis.

Nermal

Diarmuid wrote: »

Just the correct your statement

Accepted - done.