normanoffside wrote: » As I have pointed out in the mathematical thread. Iceland is the biggest outlier but also the country which by far has the highest test per head of population (close to 5%) 1,300+ cases and only 6 deaths. A death rate of 0.37% That’s likely to be closer to correct death rate (barring some genetically/societal reason) and yet still under reported due to the fact that people with symptoms are much more likely to have been tested.
polesheep wrote: » Or something unique to Spain and Italy. I'd give my right arm to be a PhD student of epidemiology, immunology or virology right now. The thesis would almost write itself.
normanoffside wrote: » The reason they came up with the theory in Spain from what I know is that they were testing all the nurses and doctors routinely and they were generally showing high rates of positives to low rates or symptoms. When they can work out how many of the health care people would ‘actually’ have been tested given the symptoms they were showing then they can see how many are going unnoticed. For example. They test 50 nurses and 16 are positive. However only one of the 16 is showing symptoms enough to have met the normal testing criteria. You can therefore extrapolate that 15 out of 16 infected people in the normal populace are also going unnoticed.
Jurgen Klopp wrote: » Well if that's the case I'll give you Germany C:113,292 2,349 UK C: 60,733 7,097 Turkey C: 38,226 812 Netherlands C: 20,549 2,238 It would mean something is wrong in Italy and Spain compared to the US, but also compared to Germany and Turkey But yet something unique is spectacularly wrong with with the UK and the Netherlands compared to the US I just can't see anything other than this being way more widespread than we know
Tenzor07 wrote: » Close them this weekend, the amount of people i've seen buying slabs of cheap booze, who are going to sit at home and drink all day.. It will lead to an increase in alcohol related violence in the home also.
Plumbthedepths wrote: » Societal behaviour is also a factor. Southern Europeans tend to be more touchy feely than their northern counterparts. I can't speak for Spain but my knowledge of Italy is intergenerational living is very common several generations of the one family living under the same roof. They like to keep their older family with them. There closeness has caused alot of their death toll. I look forward to when I can go back to my friends in Lucca and Naples but I suspect it will be at least a year or two before travel without restrictions opens up.
Jurgen Klopp wrote: » Here's something I just looked at USA Cases: 426,659 Deaths: 14,632 Spain Cases: 148,220 Deaths: 14,792 Italy Cases: 139,422 Deaths: 17,669 See the massive difference between the US and Italy and Spain? There is no way with respect to the US they are so superior that they are keeping their rate so low in relation to the others That means there has to be far far more infected out there
Stheno wrote: » How many people on this thread who used work in offices but can now work from home would continue to do so for say three months if it was suggested?
Tenzor07 wrote: » A restriction that makes sense:off-licences-should-close-during-covid-19-crisis-says-public-health-expert-
lbj666 wrote: » They should close them tomorrow night holy thursday for old time sake, then look at the que's for stockpiling booze for an indefinite amount of time 9.59. Offies are only open due to the panic buying it would cause to close them. Its nothing to do with an essential service or keeping moral up, its just basic common sense.
JRant wrote: » Have we seen a spike in this over the past 3/4 weeks. By all accounts A&E departments are almost empty
BanditLuke wrote: » Been a big believer of this for a while now, worldwide. I'd say the vast majority are showing no symptoms at all.
lainey_d_123 wrote: » That's a tactic. If they came out and said we'd be locked down for 3 months, people would revolt. Doing it a bit at a time is easier for people to digest and get used to.
Tenzor07 wrote: » It will prevent excess alcohol consumption leading to long term illness and reduce the risk of people sustaining injuries from incidents which can happen due to an excess of alcohol in the system, if someone falls due to that then it will take up the use of the emergency services who have better things to do that look after people who get pissed..
lainey_d_123 wrote: » I'm not being rude, but do you know what alcohol withdrawal is actually like? It's no joke, and has a high chance of requiring hospital resources.
Tenzor07 wrote: » With the restrictions on movement we're withdraw from a lot of activities that kept us sane, so sacrifices have to be made during the pandemic...
lainey_d_123 wrote: » It's also probably not great for alcoholics to have a forced withdrawal - I saw a doctor talking about this on TV the other day. Maybe one of the reasons they haven't been forced to close?
JRant wrote: » Boris and the Donald is a very low bar to set. I haven't gotten the impression of them being clear and concise at all. They both just parrot the same buzzwords and catchphrases about acting on medical advise. If these restrictions are to be extended then let people know in good time. I don't care if it's 2 weeks or a month but they can't keep drip feeding information out to the public. Make a call and go with it. If we leave it up to some medical panel we'll be shutdown till a vaccine appears.
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