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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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Dank Janniels

36 people died today! How can any1 even think about lifting restrictions??

mandrake04

ITman88 wrote: »

48 deaths in Australia in a month???

Australia is now on day 75 since the first case and 1st death on 2nd March, the earlier cases were believed to be the original wuhan Chinese strain which is not as aggressive or as deadly as the later European strain that came off the cruise ship those cases are proving to be more deadly. Australia is able to get tests results in 24 hrs or less maybe 48 hrs in the regional areas, so they are on top of it pretty quick.

NSW has a lockdown for 90 days, PM said from the start it’s going take 6+ months before normality returns and although I’m not a fan of him I think he is more realistic than other leaders.

mandrake04

Dank Janniels wrote: »

36 people died today! How can any1 even think about lifting restrictions??

You need another month of reliable data from testing, the Irish government thought they were going have the capability 15,000 tests per day before the brought in the “lockdown” but that didn’t work out so they now in limbo and need a reset an start from scratch see how it goes of the next month and review it then.

[Deleted User]

Idbatterim wrote: »

what has that got to do with what I posted?! and no, I am not...

Well, the countries that haven't followed international guidance tend to end up the worst hit. Eg the UK and US. A few days we also had people praising the Swedish policy, a hundred people died there yesterday.

So Australia's strategy is one that's likely to go seriously wrong

brutes1

Dank Janniels wrote: »

36 people died today! How can any1 even think about lifting restrictions??

80 + people die every day in Ireland.
What did they die of? Were they ill already? What was the average age ? Where did this group contract virus ? Did it cause death or was it diagnosed at some point and recorded as Covid death even though there were other death causes ???

Needs to be questions asked.

Penfailed

Idbatterim wrote: »

'People have to get sick': New plan to expose young, healthy Australians to coronavirus by easing social distancing restrictions 'at a gentle pace' in a bid to boost immunity
Social distancing rules could be loosened to expose Australians to COVID-19
COVID-19 infections continue to drop across the country following strict rules
Controlled exposure to virus could allow society to return to normal faster

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8196229/Coronavirus-plan-expose-young-healthy-Australians-boost-immunity.html

interesting article, copied and pasted a very interesting bit, go to article to see graphs etc...

What does the coronavirus modelling show?
If no measures are taken

The theoretical modelling finds an uncontrolled COVID-19 pandemic scenario would overwhelm our health system for many weeks. 89 per cent of people would catch the virus, with 38 per cent requiring some medical care.

ICUs would be stretched well beyond capacity for a prolonged period. Only 15 per cent of people requiring ICU beds would be able to access one, even with the expanded ICU capacity in the model.

This graph shows three scenarios based on no restrictions (grey), quarantine (light blue) and social distancing (dark blue) +8
This graph shows three scenarios based on no restrictions (grey), quarantine (light blue) and social distancing (dark blue)

With quarantine and isolation

Quarantine and isolation would reduce the proportion of people who would catch the virus to 68 per cent, and those needing medical care to 29 per cent. Only an estimated 30 per cent of people requiring ICU beds would be able to access them.

With social distancing restrictions

If social distancing measures reduces transmission by 25 per cent, the proportion of people infected would be 38 per cent with 16 per cent requiring some medical care.

Eighty per cent of people who need ICU beds could access them.

With a 33 per cent reduction in transmission due to social distancing, the proportion of people infected is 12 per cent and only five per cent require some medical care.

In that scenario, everyone who needs an ICU bed over the course of the pandemic could access one.

The modelling finds our ICUs will cope if we continue to have effective social distancing, increase our health system capacity, and isolate people with the virus and their close contacts.

Forgive me for not paying any attention to a Daily Mail article. You can't even use them as a source on Wikipedia due to their unreliability.

road_high

Thought yesterday evening was a particularly low point in morale- increases in deaths as well as a tightening in already very strict rules enforced by new laws. Bleak stuff- people need some hope, not tenable to go on months of this. It'll have far reaching consequences otherwise.

[Deleted User]

In relation to mild cases of covid-19, there's now a concern that such cases don't result in immunity.

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about?__twitter_impression=true

kravmaga

tdf7187 wrote: »

The restrictions are already causing disproportionate hardship and should be relaxed if not entirely removed. Sweden has none and is doing fine. But hey it's great for the coppers and their overtime so celebrate.

I wouldn't say Sweden is doing fine, they have more cases and deaths than Ireland.

7,693 cases with 591 deaths.

Yes they dont have the lockdown like other European countries, schools are still open and groups of more than 50 persons not allowed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden

AGS are Public servants and are here to maintain law and order and control the movement of idiots going to their 2nd holidays homes in different parts of Ireland with potential to spread the virus to rural areas. ie Connemara as an example.

All the recruits who were training in Templemore have been seconded to full Garda status and are assisting in Policing duties.
Ive no issue with the Gardai, they are doing their job.

Logan Roy

Deleted User wrote: »

In relation to mild cases of covid-19, there's now a concern that such cases don't result in immunity.

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about?__twitter_impression=true

There's so many ifs and mights and lack of peer reviewing in their research that it's basically worthless. Thanks for sharing.

BanditLuke

Dank Janniels wrote: »

36 people died today! How can any1 even think about lifting restrictions??

They can't it's just a few loons on here. We are in this for the long haul.

Danzy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Well, the countries that haven't followed international guidance tend to end up the worst hit. Eg the UK and US. A few days we also had people praising the Swedish policy, a hundred people died there yesterday.

So Australia's strategy is one that's likely to go seriously wrong

The US is behind us in cases per million.

BanditLuke

road_high wrote: »

Thought yesterday evening was a particularly low point in morale- increases in deaths as well as a tightening in already very strict rules enforced by new laws. Bleak stuff- people need some hope, not tenable to go on months of this. It'll have far reaching consequences otherwise.

Ordinary people find hope in what we are doing. Not becoming Italy, Spain or France in regards deaths and what their health care systems are facing gives hope.

hmmm

Dank Janniels wrote: »

36 people died today! How can any1 even think about lifting restrictions??

If we see these occuring in specific clusters (e.g. nursing homes), and little in the way of community transmission, it makes no sense to have the entire country in lockdown. I don't believe we are at that point yet, but it may come.

The lockdown is economically devastating, and without an economy we can't pay for healthcare and food and the public service employees etc., and very damaging to health for many people. I know everyone wants to reduce the risk from Covid, but at some point we will have to loosen restrictions even though the threat has not completely passed.

Juwwi

The Dublin Mater hospital is at full capacity now for ICU beds with nurses in the wards reporting patients getting worse .

There is no way restrictions are going to be eased and people should stop getting complacent.

We aren't doing aswell as some other Countries , maybe we are doing better than some at the moment but because our poor Health System and few ICU beds we are only a week or 2 from turning into another Italy hospital situation of not being able to cope if things go bad .

Padre_Pio

Danzy wrote: »

The US is behind us in cases per million.

The US is a massive country.

Every death here makes a much larger impression on the statistics.

Our first death was Mar 11th.
Theirs was Mar 16th

Is their rate per million better or worse than ours 5 days ago?

ITman88

BanditLuke wrote: »

They can't it's just a few loons on here. We are in this for the long haul.

Italy death stats are down to about 600 and PM is talking about lifting certain restrictions on Tuesday.

Penfailed

hmmm wrote: »

If we see these occuring in specific clusters (e.g. nursing homes), and little in the way of community transmission, it makes no sense to have the entire country in lockdown. I don't believe we are at that point yet, but it may come.

The reason we are seeing specific clusters is BECAUSE of the lockdown.

Tenzor07

kravmaga wrote: »

AGS are Public servants and are here to maintain law and order and control the movement of idiots going to their 2nd holidays homes in different parts of Ireland with potential to spread the virus to rural areas. ie Connemara as an example.
All the recruits who were training in Templemore have been seconded to full Garda status and are assisting in Policing duties.
Ive no issue with the Gardai, they are doing their job.

How many are we talking here realistically?
Does anyone know someone who has a holiday home in Connemara?

So you have a bunch of Police officers barely out of training school who can now arrest and imprison law abiding citizens once it's of their opinion that you're not complying.
How long will public support last when we may see a video of a 20yr old Gard arresting a pensioner for sitting out on her porch?
Will it stop groups of lads from hanging around drinking cans or racing motorbikes around? My answer to that would be no.

tobefrank321

hmmm wrote: »

If we see these occuring in specific clusters (e.g. nursing homes), and little in the way of community transmission, it makes no sense to have the entire country in lockdown. I don't believe we are at that point yet, but it may come.

The lockdown is economically devastating, and without an economy we can't pay for healthcare and food and the public service employees etc., and very damaging to health for many people. I know everyone wants to reduce the risk from Covid, but at some point we will have to loosen restrictions even though the threat has not completely passed.

Somewhat agree.

We'd need to come up with a plan to cocoon the elderly and the vulnerable. But also cocoon healthcare and nursing staff. This could be done by asking them to stay at home as much as possible while delivering food to their houses. And limiting their interactions with the public - so they would have to use their own private car transport to and from work. Of course we also should give them pay rises or bonuses for these sacrifices.

Difficult to implement though and probably unfair on healthcare workers.

There is just no easy way out of lockdown.

Cyrus

BanditLuke wrote: »

They can't it's just a few loons on here. We are in this for the long haul.

the restrictions will start to be lifted, if not on Sunday, then the following weekend,

itll be a gradual thing and we may end up taking one step forward and two back at points but rest assured thats what will happen,

as others have said dozens of people die every day, by not giving us any information of how many extra deaths over the norm we are seeing people are being panicked, thats the tactic to be fair.

the new powers are only in force until sunday night.

the reality is that many that have died would probably have died this year one way or another, and that is in no way to detract from the sadness that will be felt by their families and the cruelty of not being able to be there with them or have a proper funeral if they wish.

stephenjmcd

Juwwi wrote: »

The Dublin Mater hospital is at full capacity now for ICU beds with nurses in the wards reporting patients getting worse .

There is no way restrictions are going to be eased and people should stop getting complacent.

We aren't doing aswell as some other Countries , maybe we are doing better than some at the moment but because our poor Health System and few ICU beds we are only a week or 2 from turning into another Italy hospital situation of not being able to cope if things go bad .

It's the original ICU that's full, 18 beds, they've now moved into the next phase of the surge plan, using the high dependency unit for critical covid cases, they can also use other wards as ICU ventilator beds. Was all on radio 1 earlier and sounded as if the surge plan put in place was working so far.

We're getting another 2 weeks of the current restrictions, anyone who thinks otherwise is just mental. Only then will we see a partial lifting of the current restrictions probably back to what we had 2 weeks ago. Not alot will change really. It's going to be phased throughout may and into June would be my guess

ITman88

Tenzor07 wrote: »

How many are we talking here realistically?
Does anyone know someone who has a holiday home in Connemara?

So you have a bunch of Police officers barely out of training school who can now arrest and imprison law abiding citizens once it's of their opinion that you're not complying.
How long will public support last when we may see a video of a 20yr old Gard arresting a pensioner for sitting out on her porch?
Will it stop groups of lads from hanging around drinking cans or racing motorbikes around? My answer to that would be no.

The only demographic affected by the laws put in power last night are civilised well meaning people.

The scumbags will still be scumbags.

Curtain twitching Cathy will now, however, be able to report her neighbours to Gardaí for walking her dog too far down the road

Blueshoe

ITman88 wrote: »

The only demographic affected by the laws put in power last night are civilised well meaning people.

The scumbags will still be scumbags.

Curtain twitching Cathy will now, however, be able to report her neighbours to Gardaí for walking her dog too far down the road

Unless she has some military grade sighting device I doubt she will be able to tell or see when they step over the 2km mark from home.

Flip side to that is Cathy could get a brick through her window. Think positive

tobefrank321

ITman88 wrote: »

The only demographic affected by the laws put in power last night are civilised well meaning people.

The scumbags will still be scumbags.

Curtain twitching Cathy will now, however, be able to report her neighbours to Gardaí for walking her dog too far down the road

I doubt anyone will report anyone for walking their dog.

But if someone has tested positive for covid 19 and continues with their daily lives, then absolutely they should be reported, and the person reporting shouldn't feel any remorse about it.

ITman88

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I doubt anyone will report anyone for walking their dog.

But if someone has tested positive for covid 19 and continues with their daily lives, then absolutely they should be reported, and the person reporting shouldn't feel any remorse about it.

Well absolutely if they test positive that would be insane to not quarantine.

Harry Palmr

Just listening to a Dub on Sean O'Rorke show moaning about not being able to go to Kerry for the holiday because they deserve it basically.

Theboinkmaster

Juwwi wrote: »

The Dublin Mater hospital is at full capacity now for ICU beds with nurses in the wards reporting patients getting worse .

There is no way restrictions are going to be eased and people should stop getting complacent.

We aren't doing aswell as some other Countries , maybe we are doing better than some at the moment but because our poor Health System and few ICU beds we are only a week or 2 from turning into another Italy hospital situation of not being able to cope if things go bad .

Sensationalist bull**** TBH.

Simon Harris on Radio 1 this morning confirmed this but also the fact that today we have 130 empty ICU beds across the country.

So most likely if we peak this week anyone who needs an ICU bed gets one.

We are doing very well.

brick tamland

Dank Janniels wrote: »

36 people died today! How can any1 even think about lifting restrictions??

Restrictions will begin to ease in a few weeks as soon as there is sufficient testing and contact tracing in place.

There will probably be days after the easing of restrictions where there will be more than 36 people dying. While its sad for the families, it'll just be the new normal for the next few months/years until this goes away.

People die every die of causes that could be stopped if required. Smoking related illness, tracfic accidents ect. We don't stop smoking or people driving their car. We try and mitigate the risk with controls like the pub smoking ban and speed limits ect. The same will be true for this as soon as the get the facility in place, and until that is we'll have to put up with the current restrictions.

Tenzor07

Cyrus wrote: »

the restrictions will start to be lifted, if not on Sunday, then the following weekend,
the new powers are only in force until sunday night.
.

My understanding is that the act which extends the emergency measures is signed for a period of 3 months, and requires that the acting Health minister re-sign every week in order to keep the extended Garda powers in force.