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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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Juwwi

The Dublin Mater hospital is at full capacity now for ICU beds with nurses in the wards reporting patients getting worse .

There is no way restrictions are going to be eased and people should stop getting complacent.

We aren't doing aswell as some other Countries , maybe we are doing better than some at the moment but because our poor Health System and few ICU beds we are only a week or 2 from turning into another Italy hospital situation of not being able to cope if things go bad .

hmmm

Dank Janniels wrote: »

36 people died today! How can any1 even think about lifting restrictions??

If we see these occuring in specific clusters (e.g. nursing homes), and little in the way of community transmission, it makes no sense to have the entire country in lockdown. I don't believe we are at that point yet, but it may come.

The lockdown is economically devastating, and without an economy we can't pay for healthcare and food and the public service employees etc., and very damaging to health for many people. I know everyone wants to reduce the risk from Covid, but at some point we will have to loosen restrictions even though the threat has not completely passed.

BanditLuke

road_high wrote: »

Thought yesterday evening was a particularly low point in morale- increases in deaths as well as a tightening in already very strict rules enforced by new laws. Bleak stuff- people need some hope, not tenable to go on months of this. It'll have far reaching consequences otherwise.

Ordinary people find hope in what we are doing. Not becoming Italy, Spain or France in regards deaths and what their health care systems are facing gives hope.

Danzy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Well, the countries that haven't followed international guidance tend to end up the worst hit. Eg the UK and US. A few days we also had people praising the Swedish policy, a hundred people died there yesterday.

So Australia's strategy is one that's likely to go seriously wrong

The US is behind us in cases per million.

BanditLuke

Dank Janniels wrote: »

36 people died today! How can any1 even think about lifting restrictions??

They can't it's just a few loons on here. We are in this for the long haul.

Logan Roy

Deleted User wrote: »

In relation to mild cases of covid-19, there's now a concern that such cases don't result in immunity.

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about?__twitter_impression=true

There's so many ifs and mights and lack of peer reviewing in their research that it's basically worthless. Thanks for sharing.

kravmaga

tdf7187 wrote: »

The restrictions are already causing disproportionate hardship and should be relaxed if not entirely removed. Sweden has none and is doing fine. But hey it's great for the coppers and their overtime so celebrate.

I wouldn't say Sweden is doing fine, they have more cases and deaths than Ireland.

7,693 cases with 591 deaths.

Yes they dont have the lockdown like other European countries, schools are still open and groups of more than 50 persons not allowed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden

AGS are Public servants and are here to maintain law and order and control the movement of idiots going to their 2nd holidays homes in different parts of Ireland with potential to spread the virus to rural areas. ie Connemara as an example.

All the recruits who were training in Templemore have been seconded to full Garda status and are assisting in Policing duties.
Ive no issue with the Gardai, they are doing their job.

[Deleted User]

In relation to mild cases of covid-19, there's now a concern that such cases don't result in immunity.

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about?__twitter_impression=true

road_high

Thought yesterday evening was a particularly low point in morale- increases in deaths as well as a tightening in already very strict rules enforced by new laws. Bleak stuff- people need some hope, not tenable to go on months of this. It'll have far reaching consequences otherwise.

Penfailed

Idbatterim wrote: »

'People have to get sick': New plan to expose young, healthy Australians to coronavirus by easing social distancing restrictions 'at a gentle pace' in a bid to boost immunity
Social distancing rules could be loosened to expose Australians to COVID-19
COVID-19 infections continue to drop across the country following strict rules
Controlled exposure to virus could allow society to return to normal faster

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8196229/Coronavirus-plan-expose-young-healthy-Australians-boost-immunity.html

interesting article, copied and pasted a very interesting bit, go to article to see graphs etc...

What does the coronavirus modelling show?
If no measures are taken

The theoretical modelling finds an uncontrolled COVID-19 pandemic scenario would overwhelm our health system for many weeks. 89 per cent of people would catch the virus, with 38 per cent requiring some medical care.

ICUs would be stretched well beyond capacity for a prolonged period. Only 15 per cent of people requiring ICU beds would be able to access one, even with the expanded ICU capacity in the model.

This graph shows three scenarios based on no restrictions (grey), quarantine (light blue) and social distancing (dark blue) +8
This graph shows three scenarios based on no restrictions (grey), quarantine (light blue) and social distancing (dark blue)

With quarantine and isolation

Quarantine and isolation would reduce the proportion of people who would catch the virus to 68 per cent, and those needing medical care to 29 per cent. Only an estimated 30 per cent of people requiring ICU beds would be able to access them.

With social distancing restrictions

If social distancing measures reduces transmission by 25 per cent, the proportion of people infected would be 38 per cent with 16 per cent requiring some medical care.

Eighty per cent of people who need ICU beds could access them.

With a 33 per cent reduction in transmission due to social distancing, the proportion of people infected is 12 per cent and only five per cent require some medical care.

In that scenario, everyone who needs an ICU bed over the course of the pandemic could access one.

The modelling finds our ICUs will cope if we continue to have effective social distancing, increase our health system capacity, and isolate people with the virus and their close contacts.

Forgive me for not paying any attention to a Daily Mail article. You can't even use them as a source on Wikipedia due to their unreliability.

brutes1

Dank Janniels wrote: »

36 people died today! How can any1 even think about lifting restrictions??

80 + people die every day in Ireland.
What did they die of? Were they ill already? What was the average age ? Where did this group contract virus ? Did it cause death or was it diagnosed at some point and recorded as Covid death even though there were other death causes ???

Needs to be questions asked.

[Deleted User]

Idbatterim wrote: »

what has that got to do with what I posted?! and no, I am not...

Well, the countries that haven't followed international guidance tend to end up the worst hit. Eg the UK and US. A few days we also had people praising the Swedish policy, a hundred people died there yesterday.

So Australia's strategy is one that's likely to go seriously wrong

mandrake04

Dank Janniels wrote: »

36 people died today! How can any1 even think about lifting restrictions??

You need another month of reliable data from testing, the Irish government thought they were going have the capability 15,000 tests per day before the brought in the “lockdown” but that didn’t work out so they now in limbo and need a reset an start from scratch see how it goes of the next month and review it then.

mandrake04

ITman88 wrote: »

48 deaths in Australia in a month???

Australia is now on day 75 since the first case and 1st death on 2nd March, the earlier cases were believed to be the original wuhan Chinese strain which is not as aggressive or as deadly as the later European strain that came off the cruise ship those cases are proving to be more deadly. Australia is able to get tests results in 24 hrs or less maybe 48 hrs in the regional areas, so they are on top of it pretty quick.

NSW has a lockdown for 90 days, PM said from the start it’s going take 6+ months before normality returns and although I’m not a fan of him I think he is more realistic than other leaders.

Dank Janniels

36 people died today! How can any1 even think about lifting restrictions??

Idbatterim

dockysher wrote: »

Are you a medical professional on this matter?

what has that got to do with what I posted?! and no, I am not...

dockysher

Idbatterim wrote: »

'People have to get sick': New plan to expose young, healthy Australians to coronavirus by easing social distancing restrictions 'at a gentle pace' in a bid to boost immunity
Social distancing rules could be loosened to expose Australians to COVID-19
COVID-19 infections continue to drop across the country following strict rules
Controlled exposure to virus could allow society to return to normal faster

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8196229/Coronavirus-plan-expose-young-healthy-Australians-boost-immunity.html

interesting article, copied and pasted a very interesting bit, go to article to see graphs etc...

What does the coronavirus modelling show?
If no measures are taken

The theoretical modelling finds an uncontrolled COVID-19 pandemic scenario would overwhelm our health system for many weeks. 89 per cent of people would catch the virus, with 38 per cent requiring some medical care.

ICUs would be stretched well beyond capacity for a prolonged period. Only 15 per cent of people requiring ICU beds would be able to access one, even with the expanded ICU capacity in the model.

This graph shows three scenarios based on no restrictions (grey), quarantine (light blue) and social distancing (dark blue) +8
This graph shows three scenarios based on no restrictions (grey), quarantine (light blue) and social distancing (dark blue)

With quarantine and isolation

Quarantine and isolation would reduce the proportion of people who would catch the virus to 68 per cent, and those needing medical care to 29 per cent. Only an estimated 30 per cent of people requiring ICU beds would be able to access them.

With social distancing restrictions

If social distancing measures reduces transmission by 25 per cent, the proportion of people infected would be 38 per cent with 16 per cent requiring some medical care.

Eighty per cent of people who need ICU beds could access them.

With a 33 per cent reduction in transmission due to social distancing, the proportion of people infected is 12 per cent and only five per cent require some medical care.

In that scenario, everyone who needs an ICU bed over the course of the pandemic could access one.

The modelling finds our ICUs will cope if we continue to have effective social distancing, increase our health system capacity, and isolate people with the virus and their close contacts.

Are you a medical professional on this matter?

Idbatterim

'People have to get sick': New plan to expose young, healthy Australians to coronavirus by easing social distancing restrictions 'at a gentle pace' in a bid to boost immunity
Social distancing rules could be loosened to expose Australians to COVID-19
COVID-19 infections continue to drop across the country following strict rules
Controlled exposure to virus could allow society to return to normal faster

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8196229/Coronavirus-plan-expose-young-healthy-Australians-boost-immunity.html

interesting article, copied and pasted a very interesting bit, go to article to see graphs etc...

What does the coronavirus modelling show?
If no measures are taken

The theoretical modelling finds an uncontrolled COVID-19 pandemic scenario would overwhelm our health system for many weeks. 89 per cent of people would catch the virus, with 38 per cent requiring some medical care.

ICUs would be stretched well beyond capacity for a prolonged period. Only 15 per cent of people requiring ICU beds would be able to access one, even with the expanded ICU capacity in the model.

This graph shows three scenarios based on no restrictions (grey), quarantine (light blue) and social distancing (dark blue) +8
This graph shows three scenarios based on no restrictions (grey), quarantine (light blue) and social distancing (dark blue)

With quarantine and isolation

Quarantine and isolation would reduce the proportion of people who would catch the virus to 68 per cent, and those needing medical care to 29 per cent. Only an estimated 30 per cent of people requiring ICU beds would be able to access them.

With social distancing restrictions

If social distancing measures reduces transmission by 25 per cent, the proportion of people infected would be 38 per cent with 16 per cent requiring some medical care.

Eighty per cent of people who need ICU beds could access them.

With a 33 per cent reduction in transmission due to social distancing, the proportion of people infected is 12 per cent and only five per cent require some medical care.

In that scenario, everyone who needs an ICU bed over the course of the pandemic could access one.

The modelling finds our ICUs will cope if we continue to have effective social distancing, increase our health system capacity, and isolate people with the virus and their close contacts.

Tell me how

Larbre34 wrote: »

They had no business, as a lame duck Government, authorising those regulations restricting personal freedoms to the extent to which they do. At least half the acting cabinet knew it too.

Yes I'm aware some enforcement powers were needed to give effect to the Health Act of last month, but it should have been a) expedite a new Government with a mandate from the people and the support of Dáil Éireann b) enact the policy of that new Government including public health protection measures.

Think by and large the people are more than happy with the current circumstance with respect to the formation of the key government roles.

Larbre34

They had no business, as a lame duck Government, authorising those regulations restricting personal freedoms to the extent to which they do. At least half the acting cabinet knew it too.

Yes I'm aware some enforcement powers were needed to give effect to the Health Act of last month, but it should have been a) expedite a new Government with a mandate from the people and the support of Dáil Éireann b) enact the policy of that new Government including public health protection measures.

Idbatterim

BanditLuke wrote: »

FG gone right up in my estimation after tonight tbh. They are doing an outstanding job.

what? by following advice of others? Honestly, cant say I give them much credit, the rest, would be doing the same. We are a conservative country. This was always the route they were going to travel down. the conservatism, obviously was a good thing at the start, its the current bit, where many of us feel, will do more damage than good. We will see...

Tell me how

polesheep wrote: »

The restrictions will not remain in place pending a cure/vaccine. It would be wonderful if a vaccine came soon to end the restrictions, but it's more likely to come quite a while after they are lifted.

Agreed. I meant to say that in my post that once points 1 and 2 are dependable (i.e a few weeks) I think restrictions will be lifted.
Final point may be necessary before large scale gatherings happen without restriction.

polesheep

c montgomery wrote: »

I hope your right, I just don't think you are.

It's not a question of right or wrong. The trials are taking place, it's just a question of whether or not they will bear fruit. We can only hope they do. I'm off to bed. Good night to you.

c montgomery

polesheep wrote: »

That's not correct. The experts say it 'could' be years. They obviously cannot commit to a timeframe. The information I posted regarding the vaccine trials came directly from an immunologist. He was cautiously hopeful.

I hope your right, I just don't think you are.

polesheep

Tell me how wrote: »

We are not at that point yet.
To get to that point, we will need the following.

easier access/faster turnaround testing
fast accurate contact tracing
cure/vaccine.

Suspect the last item is at least 12 months away and that the first 2 are at least a few weeks away yet.

The restrictions will not remain in place pending a cure/vaccine. It would be wonderful if a vaccine came soon to end the restrictions, but it's more likely to come quite a while after they are lifted.

polesheep

c montgomery wrote: »

I'm fully optimistic when I say years as it's what the experts say
BCG hopefully works, a new vaccine will not come so easy

That's not correct. The experts say it 'could' be years. They obviously cannot commit to a timeframe. The information I posted regarding the vaccine trials came directly from an immunologist. He was cautiously hopeful.

Tell me how

polesheep wrote: »

True, social distancing has proved to be very effective. Unfortunately, as we move out of restrictions, I doubt that it would provide sufficient protection for those most vulnerable.

We are not at that point yet.
To get to that point, we will need the following.

easier access/faster turnaround testing
fast accurate contact tracing
cure/vaccine.

Suspect the last item is at least 12 months away and that the first 2 are at least a few weeks away yet.

polesheep

Tell me how wrote: »

There is a way. Social distancing as has been practiced over the last couple of weeks.

True, social distancing has proved to be very effective. Unfortunately, as we move out of restrictions, I doubt that it would provide sufficient protection for those most vulnerable.

Plumbthedepths

Tell me how wrote: »

Would you ever take off with this nonsense. I am Irish, am currently living in the US while all my friends and family are located back home or in other countries around the world.

They didn't ask me to leave any interest or compassion in the bin when I was walking through security at the airport.

What's nonsense? You are living in America not subject to the restrictions placed on people. Your knowledge of the effects on people are based on secondhand information so I suggest in your own words you 'take off'

c montgomery

polesheep wrote: »

There are a number of potential vaccines that are based on existing vaccines that don't require the same lengthy trials. There are also a few potential vaccines being trialled that have been given permission to go straight to human testing. One of these began testing a few weeks ago. Of course, it could still take a long time, but no harm in being optimistic.

I'm fully optimistic when I say years as it's what the experts say
BCG hopefully works, a new vaccine will not come so easy