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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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Tell me how

Aidric wrote: »

Try anyway. I've outlined my concerns from a public health perspective. What are your alternatives to alleviate those concerns?

Are your concerns about public health taking in to account up to 30% day on day transmission of Covid-19 and the subsequent 3% mortality rate?

Plumbthedepths

User142 wrote: »

Nothing screams privileged more than thinking these guidelines aren't too hard.

If you live in a rural location close to your family, still travel to work (essential work) it's easy to call for restrictions to remain in place. The proceeding applies to my situation, but I think people need to be told an exit strategy and also how many of the infected have recovered. It is ridiculous that the first person to test positive in February is still counted in April.

Logan Roy

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

If you live in a rural location close to your family, still travel to work (essential work) it's easy to call for restrictions to remain in place. The proceeding applies to my situation, but I think people need to be told an exit strategy and also how many of the infected have recovered. It is ridiculous that the first person to test positive in February is still counted in April.

We'll be told when they figure it out :pac:

salmocab

Logan Roy wrote: »

We'll be told when they figure it out :pac:

I’d say your right here, there’s no template so it is been made up as it goes along based on information and stats available. Everyone here has an opinion on what will/should happen but they aren’t worth anything as nobody really knows what’s been taken into account. Personally I think two more weeks of the current levels followed by slowly rowing back if it’s felt that it’s peaked. I acknowledge though that my opinion on what will happen is as useless as pretty much everyone else’s.

housemouse

terrydel wrote: »

You've added nothing...

16 people thanked me for my post, which was full of facts. All you did was provide the predictable abuse which comes from people who are emotionally unable to deal with differing points of view. Bye bye.

Nermal

Aidric wrote: »

What are the credible alternatives?

There's only one: managed infection of the majority of the population.

Maintaining an R0 below 1 will just be too costly. Spend that money building our capability to treat. Try to undo the fear and panic we have engendered.

Charles Babbage

Nermal wrote: »

There's only one: managed infection of the majority of the population.

Maintaining an R0 below 1 will just be too costly. Spend that money building our capability to treat. Try to undo the fear and panic we have engendered.

The R0 can be also be reduced if people can be tested and isolated. I think testing will improve before there is a vaccine and the economics of testing will be more favourable than the alternatives.

Loafing Oaf

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The R0 can be also be reduced if people can be tested and isolated. I think testing will improve before there is a vaccine and the economics of testing will be more favourable than the alternatives.

Ideally we would have a rapid turnaround test available before we started lifting restrictions but AFAIK they're not that close...

housemouse

Cyrus wrote: »

I disagree

People are aghast at the number of people dying everyday when the reality is a similar number die every day, it’s the incremental deaths caused by the virus that we should be concerned with and what’s relevant

The poster you are replying to, Terrydel, has an objection to anyone mentioning numbers which undermine his point of view. He will accuse you of reducing human life to "cells on a spreadsheet".

Nermal

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The R0 can be also be reduced if people can be tested and isolated.

Realistically, is testing and contact tracing (i.e. suppression) compatible with say, packed public transport? Nightclubs, pubs, crowded restaurants? A GAA crowd? A cinema, a concert? A building site?

Are we going to rule all of that stuff out for 18 months? No-one is publically articulating so - I don't think any politician would dare.

Trying to do this, and failing, will be a utter disaster. In six months, we will end up with a destroyed economy and a demoralised populace - with still a year, minimum, until the goal is reached.

never_mind

Tell me how wrote: »

Are your concerns about public health taking in to account up to 30% day on day transmission of Covid-19 and the subsequent 3% mortality rate?

Privileged is having a spare laptop at home to work from home; having high speed broadband; having a spare office or room to work from; living somewhere where it’s safe to run or walk in a 2k zone; it’s being concerned about your job when you’ve no savings. Yes we all want people to survive but we also need to make sure we ourselves survive this and beyond.

lainey_d_123

Tell me how wrote: »

What?

If anything, I would have thought that those struggling to stay at home with access to so much entertainment and communication resources is a strong indication of being privileged to ordinarily have freedom to do things which some people on this planet can only dream about.

This is an indication of privilege.

You think someone living in a tiny flat in a tower block, in severe distress, with OCD or severe depression gives a flying f**k about having the internet at home? If they're feeling up to using it at all, they're probably googling about the virus and making themselves feel even worse.

If you're well enough and comfortable enough to be able to focus on watching a Netflix series or baking bread, you should realise that not everyone is in the same boat. You're looking at this from your own perspective, of having the comfort and the luxuries to just enjoy a bit of downtime.

I don't know why so many people keep insisting that those who are suffering are 'snowflakes' or spoiled, when the reality is the complete opposite. Those who are suffering are the most likely to have mental and physical health problems, be living in poverty, in inadequate cramped housing with no outside space, or with abusive partners or family.

Pete_Cavan

Nermal wrote: »

There's only one: managed infection of the majority of the population.

Maintaining an R0 below 1 will just be too costly. Spend that money building our capability to treat. Try to undo the fear and panic we have engendered.

We aren't going to have a vaccine for at least a year so herd immunity is the only real solution. As more people gain immunity, the virus will run out of hosts. The fact remains that for an overwhelming majority of people, catching it won't create much of a problem and people will accept a week or two off work is a given at some stage. Social distancing, increased wfh, no large events, etc. will be need to control the spread.

High risk people need to adopt a lifestyle that ensures that they avoid the virus or else take their chances. Improved treatments, isolating those infected, greater hospital capacity and more experience in dealing with it will keep more people alive. These along with growing immunity and Darwinism will lower death rates over time.

One thing that is for sure is that the virus will still exist even after 6 months of lockdown so we are going to have to address reality sooner or later.

Jurgen Klopp

Australia who is rapidly seeing rates fall after their measures, are already planning to try and infect the young and healthy at a steady pace in order to boost immunity

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8196229/Coronavirus-plan-expose-young-healthy-Australians-boost-immunity.html

ITman88

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Australia is already planning to try and infect the young and healthy at a steady pace in order to boost immunity

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8196229/Coronavirus-plan-expose-young-healthy-Australians-boost-immunity.html

48 deaths in Australia in a month???

Jurgen Klopp

ITman88 wrote: »

48 deaths in Australia in a month???

They went balls out in lockdown and containment after a slow start. I think outside the large cities the pop density is low and I think the cities have a good distance between them so that also helped

Pretzill

User142 wrote: »

Nothing screams privileged more than thinking these guidelines aren't too hard.

Priviledge? What are you on about? We aren't even two weeks into what is a soft lockdown (no-one is hitting us with sticks yet.) Some will find it easier than others for sure, but it's been a hard time for most, and especially scary. But two weeks, get some perspective.

Tenzor07

Pretzill wrote: »

Priviledge? What are you on about? We aren't even two weeks into what is a soft lockdown (no-one is hitting us with sticks yet.) .

Meet the stick: https://www.thejournal.ie/simon-harris-gardai-covid-19-restrictions-5069486-Apr2020/

Those who are convicted face a maximum of six months in prison and a fine of €2,500.

terrydel

housemouse wrote: »

16 people thanked me for my post, which was full of facts. All you did was provide the predictable abuse which comes from people who are emotionally unable to deal with differing points of view. Bye bye.

16 people lined my post, I've heard it all now! You've reached the bottom of the barrel, put the shovel away.
Oh and answer tbe questions, there's a good lad

Pete_Cavan

Pretzill wrote: »

Priviledge? What are you on about? We aren't even two weeks into what is a soft lockdown (no-one is hitting us with sticks yet.) Some will find it easier than others for sure, but it's been a hard time for most, and especially scary. But two weeks, get some perspective.

I don't think anyone has an issue with these two weeks and accept it as necessary to flatten the curve. Another week or two on top is broadly accepted, followed by months of less severe restrictions. It is the idea of months of the current restrictions which people have a serious issue with. Presenting it as people complaining about just these two weeks is arguing a point nobody made. People calling for the restrictions to remain for as long as it takes always seem to revert to this argument!

terrydel

Nermal wrote: »

There's only one: managed infection of the majority of the population.

Maintaining an R0 below 1 will just be too costly. Spend that money building our capability to treat. Try to undo the fear and panic we have engendered.

Please explain how you do that at this point in the trajectory of the disease.
Hospital capacity takes time to build, you cant wave a magic wand.
Fact is that the countries having by far and away the best success dealing with this are the ones who implemented extreme social distancing via lockdown, as early on as possible. The facts speak for themselves on that.

BanditLuke

FG gone right up in my estimation after tonight tbh. They are doing an outstanding job.

terrydel

housemouse wrote: »

The poster you are replying to, Terrydel, has an objection to anyone mentioning numbers which undermine his point of view. He will accuse you of reducing human life to "cells on a spreadsheet".

Which is what you've done.
Provide actual reasons why the governments approach is panicked and poor, and an alternative and why it's better please. I'll keep asking until you do.

Pretzill

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

I don't think anyone has an issue with these two weeks and accept it as necessary to flatten the curve. Another week or two on top is broadly accepted, followed by months of less severe restrictions. It is the idea of months of the current restrictions which people have a serious issue with. Presenting it as people complaining about just these two weeks is arguing a point nobody made. People calling for the restrictions to remain for as long as it takes always seem to revert to this argument!

But the restrictions may actually get tougher - so putting the last two weeks into perspective is important.

Cork Boy 53

BanditLuke wrote: »

FG gone right up in my estimation after tonight tbh. They are doing an outstanding job.

They took their eyes off the ball at the beginning of this ****storm but in fairness they have stepped up to the plate over the last 4 weeks or so.

Plumbthedepths

BanditLuke wrote: »

FG gone right up in my estimation after tonight tbh. They are doing an outstanding job.

Pretty much every party is singing off the same hymnsheet. FG are the incumbents following the expert advice.

niallo27

Pretzill wrote: »

Priviledge? What are you on about? We aren't even two weeks into what is a soft lockdown (no-one is hitting us with sticks yet.) Some will find it easier than others for sure, but it's been a hard time for most, and especially scary. But two weeks, get some perspective.

2 weeks, where have you been for the last month.

niallo27

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Australia who is rapidly seeing rates fall after their measures, are already planning to try and infect the young and healthy at a steady pace in order to boost immunity

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8196229/Coronavirus-plan-expose-young-healthy-Australians-boost-immunity.html

Much warmer climate down there for last month or so, I wonder is this a factor as well. Like the flu it may be more prevalent in winter months, I am not comparing it to the flu before people lose the plot.

Plumbthedepths

Lot of sense being spoken on the Tonight show by the elderly health professional. He doesn't believe the Lord's prayer out of the Chinese. Also he accepts it's a health emergency but the economic situation cannot be ignored either.

Jurgen Klopp

niallo27 wrote: »

Much warmer climate down there for last month or so, I wonder is this a factor as well. Like the flu it may be more prevalent in winter months, I am not comparing it to the flu before people lose the plot.

I would have thought Iran would have faired better tho if so? Saudia Arabia said they are expecting 200,000 cases in next 2 weeks too