Relaxation of restrictions

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

People are not loosing their freedom? Grand you can go on ignore with the other lad.

So open everything up and just let see what happens hey?

lainey_d_123

martingriff wrote: »

Why do you think they can't get help for other medical ailments. Hospitals are not just seeing Covid 19 patients and nothing else.

What about the people who would have died because they would not have access to adequate healthcare if the hospitals were over stretched to not doing something. It is a pain of pain for some gain.

I am sure you will get over it

Just tell that to all the people who had tests and outpatient procedures cancelled. I'm sure they'll be delighted to know that it actually isn't true.

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

So for anyone that didn't know this poster is a HSE consultant doing an AMA here on boards.

Essentially thinks we'll have to accept a certain amount of daily deaths even post lockdown

Well obviously. This is what a lot of people are still failing to grasp. It's not a matter of 'we'll do a lockdown for a few months and everything will be grand'. It won't be grand for a very long time and nobody who actually knows what they're talking about thinks a prolonged lockdown is possible. There will come a point where the effects of the lockdown become more problematic than the effects of the virus.

martingriff wrote: »

So open everything up and just let see what happens hey?

I haven't deleted any of my comments, feel free to search and link to where I suggested 'opening up everything'.

Cork Boy 53

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

So for anyone that didn't know this poster is a HSE consultant doing an AMA here on boards.

Essentially thinks we'll have to accept a certain amount of daily deaths even post lockdown

Yes. And also if no vaccine is developed by the autumn then the death toll from then onwards will dwarf what is happening now. Anyone who thinks this crisis is nearing an end needs to wake the **** up.

TheCitizen wrote: »

A contributor on Virgin Media last night said end of May. But if the peak is reached and the downward trajectory is maintained over the next couple of weeks, we could see restrictions on construction work returning for example in early to mid May hoefully.

I say start of MAy for the current restrictions and then they will allow certain places that can have people in and can observe social distancing to reopen after that

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I haven't deleted any of my comments, feel free to search and link to where I suggested 'opening up everything'.

You are complaing of a lack of freedom so unless we open up everything you have still a lack of freedom so you should still complain

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Yes. And also if no vaccine is developed by the autumn then the death toll from then onwards will dwarf what is happening now.

The best guess by experts for a vaccine is 18 to 24 months or do you mean Autumn '21.
A lockdown until a vaccine is found is fantasy.

polesheep

housemouse wrote: »

Now I remember why I don't spend much time on message boards. Thanks for the reminder

At least they can no longer burn those that they cannot understand. Your earlier, in-depth, and well thought out post was the most reasoned and articulate that I have read on this site.

martingriff wrote: »

You are complaing of a lack of freedom so unless we open up everything you have still a lack of freedom so you should still complain

I didn't complain actually. I responded to another poster about comments made from yesterday which I have no interest in raking over with you. Feel free to attribute things to me though that I never said if it makes you feel better or gives you a win in your own mind.

Cork Boy 53

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

The best guess by experts for a vaccine is 18 to 24 months or do you mean Autumn '21.
A lockdown until a vaccine is found is fantasy.

Read the HSE consultant`s comments in the post that was quoted.

TheCitizen

polesheep wrote: »

At least they can no longer burn those that they cannot understand. Your earlier, in-depth, and well thought out post was the most reasoned and articulate that I have read on this site.

:pac:

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I didn't complain actually. I responded to another poster about comments made from yesterday which I have no interest in raking over with you. Feel free to attribute things to me though that I never said if it makes you feel better or gives you a win in your own mind.

You were complaining of lack of freedom in the post I quoted. Nobody has a lack of freedom. They may not be able to go as far as they want but they can see go free and exercise and go get there groceries. It could be far worse. Lets not let that happen and take responsibility with our actions

Aidric

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

The best guess by experts for a vaccine is 18 to 24 months or do you mean Autumn '21.
A lockdown until a vaccine is found is fantasy.

Q121 is the best estimate of a vaccine. Until then anti virals are the best hope of treating victims but no leading candidate has been tested or trialed in the volume you would need to green light such a treatment. Additional to the complexity of the situation is that this is a new virus and science hasn't yet caught up to the reality. Data from China would help.

It's easy to say lockdown until a vaccine is found is fantasy but in reality what is the credible alternative?

If you have no vaccine or anti virals to mitigate the situation then any government cannot responsibly give its citizens the all clear to resume normal life.

If they relax the restrictions the likelihood is another spike in numbers and then they would have to reintroduce lockdown. That would take us potentially in to winter and flu season. A combination of a rampaging flu and covid epidemic would overwhelm any public health system.

The economic consequences are driving the conversation but if we don't properly address the health problem first then the consequences could be truly catastrophic.

ITman88

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Read the HSE consultant`s comments in the post that was quoted.

The groups the HSE consultant has mentioned most at risk of this will be unlikely to be returning to work in the construction or engineering industries which have now closed.

So social distancing can remain with those industries restarted

Blueshoe

Our testing figures are still very low. 1400 odd instead of the hoped for 5000 a day. No relaxation of restrictions until we up our game and start getting a true story

Summary:
People talking with any certainty about lockdown being done in 2 to 4 weeks or in for the whole year don't know what they're talking about. The probability is lockdown till the end of May followed by a gradual reduction in the severity of lockdown until a death rate, which is deemed the maximum level which the public will tolerate on an ongoing basis, is reached and allowed run to October. In Q4 we'll have to see a tightening of restrictions again to keep the death rate down. What death rate will they view as acceptable? I suspect 50 dead a day or less will be the level but don't know, a lot depends on what the public tells them is acceptable. In 2021 it'll all be about keeping the death rate at an acceptable daily level until we get the vaccine. As treatments improve fewer social and economic restrictions will be required to maintain a stable daily death rate which is acceptable to the public.

that post above is interesting. I dont think you can use "what death rate will the public tolerate" as being the only metric. How much economic destruction and losing their minds with the situation, will they tolerate? what a fascinating situation either way, would love to be a year or two down the line and looking back now...

Logan Roy

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Yes. And also if no vaccine is developed by the autumn then the death toll from then onwards will dwarf what is happening now. Anyone who thinks this crisis is nearing an end needs to wake the **** up.

You're such an angry man. You need to calm down.

I'd love to know, what the vaccine time line is based on. I am assuming never in history, have so many, with so many resources and urgency, worked on something like this...

Aidric wrote: »

Q121 is the best estimate of a vaccine. Until then anti virals are the best hope of treating victims but no leading candidate has been tested or trialed in the volume you would need to green light such a treatment. Additional to the complexity of the situation is that this is a new virus and science hasn't yet caught up to the reality. Data from China would help.

It's easy to say lockdown until a vaccine is found is fantasy but in reality what is the credible alternative?

If you have no vaccine or anti virals to mitigate the situation then any government cannot responsibly give its citizens the all clear to resume normal life.

If they relax the restrictions the likelihood is another spike in numbers and then they would have to reintroduce lockdown. That would take us potentially in to winter and flu season. A combination of a rampaging flu and covid epidemic would overwhelm any public health system.

The economic consequences are driving the conversation but if we don't properly address the health problem first then the consequences could be truly catastrophic.

You cannot lockdown a population untill a vaccine is found its amazing that actually has to be said. You will see the alternatives in the coming weeks.

StringerBell

Idbatterim wrote: »

I'd love to know, what the vaccine time line is based on. I am assuming never in history, have so many, with so many resources and urgency, worked on something like this...

The standardised health and safety measures when it comes to developing and trialing vaccines I would assume.

salmocab

ITman88 wrote: »

The groups the HSE consultant has mentioned most at risk of this will be unlikely to be returning to work in the construction or engineering industries which have now closed.

So social distancing can remain with those industries restarted

Can social distancing be practiced on a building site? In my 20 years on sites I’d have thought it would have been difficult to keep 2 mts from people very much. Lots of things require 2 people to lift or one holding whilst one fixes. That’s aside from the day to day closeness necessitated by different trades trying to work side by side.

VonLuck

salmocab wrote: »

Can social distancing be practiced on a building site? In my 20 years on sites I’d have thought it would have been difficult to keep 2 mts from people very much. Lots of things require 2 people to lift or one holding whilst one fixes. That’s aside from the day to day closeness necessitated by different trades trying to work side by side.

You have developers on the radio saying that social distancing can be maintained on their sites, but the reality is that it can't. Mostly because of canteen facilities, toilets, lifting heavy materials requiring more than one person.

It may just be a case that the government is happy with the additional risk until it reaches a point where cases increase again whereby stricter measures are reintroduced. Continue ad-nauseam until a vaccine is developed.

Cyrus

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Read the HSE consultant`s comments in the post that was quoted.

I would take what that consultant says as the opinion of someone with a little more info that most of the rest of us

Nothing more and nothing less

Aidric

Idbatterim wrote: »

I'd love to know, what the vaccine time line is based on. I am assuming never in history, have so many, with so many resources and urgency, worked on something like this...

Simple. It's based on clinical trails which need to go through several phases before submission for regulatory approval.

Also a question of scale and finance. If a small bio company creates an approved vaccine they don't have the scale to produce it for a global population. That's where you need a global pharma player to step in and who will fund it ultimately?

VonLuck wrote: »

You have developers on the radio saying that social distancing can be maintained on their sites, but the reality is that it can't. Mostly because of canteen facilities, toilets, lifting heavy materials requiring more than one person.

It may just be a case that the government is happy with the additional risk until it reaches a point where cases increase again whereby stricter measures are reintroduced. Continue ad-nauseam until a vaccine is developed.

yeah, could possibly reduce risk with outdoor urinals, like at concerts etc. the building shut down, is not viable for long, I dont think it should have been implemented at all. Everything else, ok, but should have been left to client, builders, trades and suppliers, to keep wheels moving, but as prudently as possible...

ITman88

Cyrus wrote: »

I would take what that consultant says as the opinion of someone with a little more info that most of the rest of us

Nothing more and nothing less

He also explicitly said NO-ONE knows how this will turn out and said they were assumptions

Hmmzis

salmocab wrote: »

Can social distancing be practiced on a building site? In my 20 years on sites I’d have thought it would have been difficult to keep 2 mts from people very much. Lots of things require 2 people to lift or one holding whilst one fixes. That’s aside from the day to day closeness necessitated by different trades trying to work side by side.

Some of that can be mitigated by proper PPE and training. Wearing a mask, gloves and goggles shouldn't be that outlandish in a building site.

TheCitizen

Aidric wrote: »

Simple. It's based on clinical trails which need to go through several phases before submission for regulatory approval.

Also a question of scale and finance. If a small bio company creates an approved vaccine they don't have the scale to produce it for a global population. That's where you need a global pharma player to step in and who will fund it ultimately?

A vaccine for this won't be short of funding