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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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Lwaker.

fleet_admiral wrote: »

LVA said in the last few days optimistically if cases flatten pubs should take their own decision and open at the start of July, worst case scenario being Halloween

LVA got their own experts modelling the curve lol

[Deleted User]

rusty the athlete wrote: »

Part of your target should be moving away from cocooning. Its widely disregarded and reviled by those who 'should' incarcerated, ie the over 70s, the majority of whom refuse to be placed under house arrest and quite rightly. Any law or regulation that is universally reviled and ignored is by definition bad law.

I was out for a walk this morning. Its almost like business as usual now. I actually think I saw more people who were definitely over 70 (gait, stiffness, walking sticks) out and about than the rest of the population. A huge increase in cars out too, in fact it was hard to cross the road whereas last week it was absolutely dead! Most people have themselves relaxed restrictions, you can see it everywhere.

lbj666

rusty the athlete wrote: »

Part of your target should be moving away from cocooning. Its widely disregarded and reviled by those who 'should' incarcerated, ie the over 70s, the majority of whom refuse to be placed under house arrest and quite rightly. Any law or regulation that is universally reviled and ignored is by definition bad law.

A lot of the over 70s seem to think the cocooning thing is just "for their own good", it not, its so that health service isnt overwhelmed by this demongraphic getting sick all at once.

it doesnt matter in the slightest to the HSE if someone is willing to take the risks and willing to meet their maker, they still would be rocking up to hospital and have to be dealt with.

They need to be reminded of the 100s of thousand of "non vulnerable" if there is such a thing stuck indoors mostly for their sake not their own.

Gael23

fleet_admiral wrote: »

LVA said in the last few days optimistically if cases flatten pubs should take their own decision and open at the start of July, worst case scenario being Halloween

There. wont be any pubs in existance by Halloween if it goes on that long

polesheep

rusty the athlete wrote: »

Part of your target should be moving away from cocooning. Its widely disregarded and reviled by those who 'should' incarcerated, ie the over 70s, the majority of whom refuse to be placed under house arrest and quite rightly. Any law or regulation that is universally reviled and ignored is by definition bad law.

Yes, I should have said that cocooning should be an advisory only.

polesheep

Larbre34 wrote: »

I mentioned this yesterday and I'll say it again.

A medic friend of mine works in a Dublin tertiary hospital that has been prepped to provide intensive care to the expected surge of cases.

He told me on Sunday that the internal discussion in this hospital is for these restrictions to continue exactly as they are for 5/6 more weeks, with a gradual, closely monitored unwinding thereafter.

Get used to it.

My wife is working in ICU. She tells me that the internal discussions on restrictions vary from day to day, but when they want to KNOW what's ACTUALLY happening... they listen to Dr. Holohan's statements.

fleet_admiral

Ghost Dog 4 wrote: »

Based on latest reports we have passed the peak I would hope restrictions case be eased from May 1 and get fully back to normal by June 30th

LVA said in the last few days optimistically if cases flatten pubs should take their own decision and open at the start of July, worst case scenario being Halloween

[Deleted User]

rusty the athlete wrote: »

Part of your target should be moving away from cocooning. Its widely disregarded and reviled by those who 'should' incarcerated, ie the over 70s, the majority of whom refuse to be placed under house arrest and quite rightly. Any law or regulation that is universally reviled and ignored is by definition bad law.

Frontline worker here.
Funny you speaking for all over 70s there, the majority I speak with, every day, seem to be very happy with the way it is right now. They know it's not forever & they are very resilient.
A lot more than the snowflakes I see posting on here

tobefrank321

normanoffside wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-ireland-s-infection-peak-may-have-passed-toll-could-hit-400-by-august-report-forecasts-1.4223043

Peak resource use of hospital and ICU beds passed on April 4th

Good to know. When we get below 100 covid19 patients in ICU we could then look at lifting some restrictions for a month or two, knowing full well though that ICU admissions will slowly creep up again.

threeball

tobefrank321 wrote: »

There is absolutely no way this is only going to cost €22 billion. Its likely to cost at least €40 billion for this year alone from lost tax revenue, and increased social welfare and health spending. The cost will gradually decrease but it could be €30 billion next year, 20 the following year. We'll be lucky not to add €100 billion to our national debt from this. And we haven't been exactly paying it off recently. Even in a relatively good economy it continued to rise.

I agree though, the figures should be put out there for everyone to decide the best way forward.

All countries are in the same boat. There will be debt write down or massive injections. Italy won't survive without this.

tobefrank321

housemouse wrote: »

The lockdown policy is driven by fear and panic.

Medical experts are not economists. They are tasked with fixing one problem: the spread of disease. They don't know how (because it's not their job, and it's difficult) to do a proper cost-benefit analysis.

The policy of lockdown means the death of our economies. A temporary death, yes. But with long-term consequences that reduce the wealth, happiness and life expectancy of everybody.

A cost-benefit analysis would try to understand what were the full costs of the policy, and see if there are alternatives that are better value, i.e. the opportunity cost.

For example, the Central Bank has predicted that the cost to the Irish government of the current lockdown policy will be €22 billion. I'm going to ignore the absolutely huge cost to everybody else and focus only on this €22 billion cost to government.

The supply of ICU care isn't cheap and the supply of nurses and doctors is not very elastic.

But for the cost of ten overpriced children's hospitals, don't tell me there was no alternative.

The lockdown is already going to cost an entire annual healthcare budget in lost taxes and income supports. More, if it is extended.

Investing any amount up to €22 billion in ICU care and other measures to deal with the virus would be cheaper to the Irish government than the policy of lockdown, and would be far better for all private citizens and private business. GDP is expected to fall by 8% this year, thanks to lockdown - this has real-life consequences.

A proper cost-benefit analysis would also include the remaining life expectancy of those who are vulnerable to Covid-19, after taking into account their other underlying health conditions. The media doesn't bother distinguishing between those dying with the virus, versus those who die of the virus.

Health budgets should be focused on extending survival for those who can have a high quality of life (see the recent article by Dr. Malcolm Kendrick on his website for more).

The total number of deaths in Western countries has not increased by any noticeable amount as a result of this virus.

And the life expectancy of the typical victim might well be less than 2 years, given their age and existing conditions - so the virus is likely to make almost no difference to the total number of deaths over the next year or two.

If you think it makes sense to spend €22 billion on this project, then you haven't considered the alternatives.

There is absolutely no way this is only going to cost €22 billion. Its likely to cost at least €40 billion for this year alone from lost tax revenue, and increased social welfare and health spending. The cost will gradually decrease but it could be €30 billion next year, 20 the following year. We'll be lucky not to add €100 billion to our national debt from this. And we haven't been exactly paying it off recently. Even with a relatively good economy it continued to rise.

I agree though, the figures should be put out there for everyone to decide the best way forward.

Gael23

The longer this goes on the more irreparable damage will be done to the economy. Businesses can’t exiat for months on end with zero cash flow whatever state support is provided.
Society can’t take it either, there is only so many weeks that you can stare at the same 4 walls of your house.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Ghost Dog 4 wrote: »

Based on latest reports we have passed the peak I would hope restrictions case be eased from May 1 and get fully back to normal by June 30th

Great news.

rusty the athlete

polesheep wrote: »

I wasn't suggesting that we stay on lockdown. In fact, I believe that at this point, we should be moving to a targeted lockdown. i.e. cocooning.

Part of your target should be moving away from cocooning. Its widely disregarded and reviled by those who 'should' incarcerated, ie the over 70s, the majority of whom refuse to be placed under house arrest and quite rightly. Any law or regulation that is universally reviled and ignored is by definition bad law.

normanoffside

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Well by plateau, I mean the current total in ICU. So if there is currently for example 150 in ICU, it needs to stay at that number and then go down to a total of less than 100 in ICU. This then would enable them to lift restrictions for a month, before ICU numbers start to go back up again. And so on.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-ireland-s-infection-peak-may-have-passed-toll-could-hit-400-by-august-report-forecasts-1.4223043

Peak resource use of hospital and ICU beds passed on April 4th

Plumbthedepths

Larbre34 wrote: »

I mentioned this yesterday and I'll say it again.

A medic friend of mine works in a Dublin tertiary hospital that has been prepped to provide intensive care to the expected surge of cases.

He told me on Sunday that the internal discussion in this hospital is for these restrictions to continue exactly as they are for 5/6 more weeks, with a gradual, closely monitored unwinding thereafter.

Get used to it.

Must be true if a friend told you.

KrustyUCC

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

What latest reports are you looking at? We certainly have not passed the peak from this wave of the virus and won`t for weeks to come.

Think this is a bit simplistic and would like to see more reports

Coronavirus: Ireland’s infection peak may have passed, toll could hit 400 by August, report forecasts
New modelling data claims Covid-19 infections peaked in Ireland on April 4th

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-ireland-s-infection-peak-may-have-passed-toll-could-hit-400-by-august-report-forecasts-1.4223043

Nermal

housemouse wrote: »

If you think it makes sense to spend €22 billion on this project, then you haven't considered the alternatives.

Great post.

Cork Boy 53

Ghost Dog 4 wrote: »

Based on latest reports we have passed the peak I would hope restrictions case be eased from May 1 and get fully back to normal by June 30th

What latest reports are you looking at? We certainly have not passed the peak from this wave of the virus and won`t for weeks to come.

KrustyUCC

I presume that's based on worse case scenario planning?

Larbre34

I mentioned this yesterday and I'll say it again.

A medic friend of mine works in a Dublin tertiary hospital that has been prepped to provide intensive care to the expected surge of cases.

He told me on Sunday that the internal discussion in this hospital is for these restrictions to continue exactly as they are for 5/6 more weeks, with a gradual, closely monitored unwinding thereafter.

Get used to it.

KrustyUCC

Ghost Dog 4 wrote: »

Based on latest reports we have passed the peak I would hope restrictions case be eased from May 1 and get fully back to normal by June 30th

Unfortunately I'm not sure that's true

Tony Holohan is still expecting a surge

https://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/irish-news/optimism-that-coronavirus-peak-will-be-smaller-than-first-feared-39108377.html

ITman88

brutes1 wrote: »

Yes totally agree and would go farther and question the whole agenda re lockdown . Never happened before with bad flu or Swine flu seasons.
Needs to end know.
I am not sure if any politican has any courage to put forward this though it is incredible the lack of critical thinking. Although I understand questions are limited or not allowed at briefings and the Dail is shut. Why .

“We will figure it out as we go along”

Leo has been excellent during this crisis, excellent from a healthcare point of view, and has handled it better than nearly all PMs, but that’s a doctors response to an economic meltdown

Dodge

KrustyUCC wrote: »

It's not easy not seeing family, friends and those in relationships

Many relationships won't survive this

And new ones will be created after it. It isn’t like every relationship lasts for eternity anyway.

I wasn’t suggesting it was easy either btw

rm212

ITman88 wrote: »

Nobody can argue with any single point made in this post.

Ok, here’s just one single, simple argument against a point in that post. The post assumes that we can buy any number of ventilators / healthcare resources and have them immediately available. There is currently a worldwide shortage of ventilators and healthcare resources.

brutes1

ITman88 wrote: »

Nobody can argue with any single point made in this post.

Yes totally agree and would go farther and question the whole agenda re lockdown . Never happened before with bad flu or Swine flu seasons.
Needs to end know.
I am not sure if any politican has any courage to put forward this though it is incredible the lack of critical thinking. Although I understand questions are limited or not allowed at briefings and the Dail is shut. Why .

KrustyUCC

Dodge wrote: »

What will be destroyed? Everything is just on pause. That’s all. Some jobs will be lost. Some more will be created. The same raw materials will still exist and the same corporations will still provide everything we want and need.

It can obviously be discussed over and over again here but surely everybody realises deep down that most people would want to get back normality ASAP, and that when restrictions are removed that will happen naturally enough?

Talk of society being destroyed is ridiculous

It's very hard hard to pause life

Life moves on and you just can't pause things

Starting 12th of March and up to 19th April is 39 days of restrictions

Add two more weeks as is most likely up to 3rd of May is 54 days

Some people say up to the end of May which is 81 days or 11 weeks and 4 days

It's not easy not seeing family, friends and those in relationships

Many relationships won't survive this

ITman88

housemouse wrote: »

The lockdown policy is driven by fear and panic.

Medical experts are not economists. They are tasked with fixing one problem: the spread of disease. They don't know how (because it's not their job, and it's difficult) to do a proper cost-benefit analysis.

The policy of lockdown means the death of our economies. A temporary death, yes. But with long-term consequences that reduce the wealth, happiness and life expectancy of everybody.

A cost-benefit analysis would try to understand what were the full costs of the policy, and see if there are alternatives that are better value, i.e. the opportunity cost.

For example, the Central Bank has predicted that the cost to the Irish government of the current lockdown policy will be €22 billion. I'm going to ignore the absolutely huge cost to everybody else and focus only on this €22 billion cost to government.

The supply of ICU care isn't cheap and the supply of nurses and doctors is not very elastic.

But for the cost of ten overpriced children's hospitals, don't tell me there was no alternative.

The lockdown is already going to cost an entire annual healthcare budget in lost taxes and income supports. More, if it is extended.

Investing any amount up to €22 billion in ICU care and other measures to deal with the virus would be cheaper to the Irish government than the policy of lockdown, and would be far better for all private citizens and private business. GDP is expected to fall by 8% this year, thanks to lockdown - this has real-life consequences.

A proper cost-benefit analysis would also include the remaining life expectancy of those who are vulnerable to Covid-19, after taking into account their other underlying health conditions. The media doesn't bother distinguishing between those dying with the virus, versus those who die of the virus.

Health budgets should be focused on extending survival for those who can have a high quality of life (see the recent article by Dr. Malcolm Kendrick on his website for more).

The total number of deaths in Western countries has not increased by any noticeable amount as a result of this virus.

And the life expectancy of the typical victim might well be less than 2 years, given their age and existing conditions - so the virus is likely to make almost no difference to the total number of deaths over the next year or two.

If you think it makes sense to spend €22 billion on this project, then you haven't considered the alternatives.

Nobody can argue with any single point made in this post.

KrustyUCC

donaghs wrote: »

We also need to plan for the future. Is it wrong to consider that we could destroy our future because of a particular approach taken to save lives in the present?

Not just "the economy", but the basic society we have now. Basic standards of living and current life expectancy. Look at Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, except far more global.

We'll apparently there is "no roadmap" and the governemnt have to "figure it out as they're going along"

https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-independent/textview

In fairness I don't really see an alternative for that course of action but I'd really love a semblance of a plan to get back to some bit of normality

Dodge

donaghs wrote: »

We also need to plan for the future. Is it wrong to consider that we could destroy our future because of a particular approach taken to save lives in the present?

Not just "the economy", but the basic society we have now.

What will be destroyed? Everything is just on pause. That’s all. Some jobs will be lost. Some more will be created. The same raw materials will still exist and the same corporations will still provide everything we want and need.

It can obviously be discussed over and over again here but surely everybody realises deep down that most people would want to get back normality ASAP, and that when restrictions are removed that will happen naturally enough?

Talk of society being destroyed is ridiculous