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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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ITman88

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I received a warning accused of scare mongering about the supply of food. It was mentioned on Euro news last night. Here is an Irish reference to the same problem.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/european-states-urged-to-open-borders-to-workers-to-ensure-food-supply-1.4217227

You got a warning over that?????

And some of the waffle about death rates is allowed!!!

lainey_d_123

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Jesus. Just got a call from my sister saying “Hey, I’m on the way over to yours with those things you needed!”. I asked her to post me a button battery yesterday if she had one as the one in my kitchen scales is gone and I use it a lot. I also said that I wanted to get baking powder when I had the chance. But these are totally non-essential items and I’m an immunocompromised person in the Irish covid hotspot. They can wait. What the fuck was she thinking? I had to quite bluntly dissuade her. I mean, my friend had to meet her new niece through a window recently and that’s far more important. Also, I’m just not in the mind frame for receiving visitors currently like many of us.

Maybe she was going to leave it on your doorstep to pick up? Maybe she didn't want to put herself at risk by going into the post office, and preferred to just drop it off?

If I'd done someone a favour and this was their attitude, you can bet they'd be waiting a very long time for the next one.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

How in teh name of God did this get a yellow card? It's not wishing any harm etc just stating if the food security became a big issue they'd have to be hard decisions made

Yeah, that’s the craziest infraction I’ve seen on boards. It’s nowhere close to the most scaremongering coronavirus post I’ve seen on these forums. And it’s clearly an opinion which is what boards.ie is all about. Imagine if we all to provide citations for our opinions? I’ll probably get infracted for criticising a mod action. But whatever. Bring it.

ITman88

Stheno wrote: »

Could you please learn the difference between tials for treatments and vaccines? There are significant differences

I had mentioned vaccine in my previous post not treatment.

Prevention is better than cure.

BrianD3

It's going to be a big challenge knowing when to lift the restrictions. The authorities will be fearful of making an error and being metaphorically (or literally) hanged from the lampposts if the bodies pile up.

The opposite of what happened with the UK's so called herd immunity plan - you take a risky approach at the start that goes against what the majority are doing, get it wrong and it's lamppost time. If you take the safe approach at the start and then get it wrong when you try to get back to normality, you're crucified at that stage.

I work in an area where I am involved in these types of decisions on a regular basis at a micro level compared to what authorities have to do in this case. If you introduce a measure to protect health but which impinges on people's lives/the economy etc., you need to have a clear exit strategy for how you'll get back to normality. It's important to have this strategy in advance rather than "playing it by ear".

The problem in this case is the solution seems to be unknown or out of our control. People are talking about treatments - most treatments that the pharmaceutical and biotech industry try to introduce fail clinical trials. Maybe there will be good news this time but I wouldn't bank on it.

As for vaccines, if we are waiting for a vaccine to solve this and the lockdown has to continue for 18-24 months or longer, we are f*cked. Even if we have rolling lockdowns based on how full the hospitals are, it may not work. It may also result in us being f*cked due to some people constantly worrying about when the next lockdown will come while others just ignore any lockdowns that are in place.

Elmer Blooker

ITman88 wrote: »

Yeah we don’t have the number for an enforcement outside the bigger cities.

What’s happening in rural parts of Italy or Spain?

We see the videos online of armed checkpoints in Italy and Spain etc but that surely is only parts of big cities.

There are always armed checkpoints in Italy and Spain because both countries have para-military police forces who are armed to the teeth and make sure their presence is felt. They have always been there and are not a result of the modern scourge of Islamic terrorism.
My first time in Italy was in Rome and I was genuinely shocked at the weaponry that the Carabinieri were carrying. We are lucky with our civilized Gardai in this country.

Back on topic ... I was very surprised at the amount of traffic around today (N Dublin) I wouldn't describe it as heavy but a lot more than during the week when you could hear a pin drop.

lainey_d_123

Gael23 wrote: »

Given the situation surely there must be a way to expedite trials?

They will be expedited, but there are still processes to follow. Would you want to receive a vaccine that has been pushed through the testing phase without proper and thorough investigations? They need to have a reasonable level of confidence that they're not going to kill the volunteers for the drug trials before they administer them. This stuff takes time.

ITman88

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Yeah, that’s the craziest infraction I’ve seen on boards. It’s nowhere close to the most scaremongering coronavirus post I’ve seen on these forums. And it’s clearly an opinion which is what boards.ie is all about. Imagine if we all to provide citations for our opinions? I’ll probably get infracted for criticising a mod action. But whatever. Bring it.

In the words of Lord Sumption (Ex UK Supreme court judge) last week “a hysterical slide into a police state”

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Maybe she was going to leave it on your doorstep to pick up? Maybe she didn't want to put herself at risk by going into the post office, and preferred to just drop it off?

If I'd done someone a favour and this was their attitude, you can bet they'd be waiting a very long time for the next one.

Even so, it’s totally unnecessary. I’m vulnerable to this virus as I have lung metastases. I shouldn’t have had to tell her that that was a stupid idea. These are incredibly stressful times for anybody with an underlying condition. I took a delivery of a prescription this week from a Garda. That was very different as those are drugs that are keeping me alive. I had politely asked her to send the battery by the way and I’ll be transferring her money for it too. I’m not ungrateful about that. By posting it, she can do some disinfection and the person-to-person contact is almost non-existent.

Yes, I will be blunt about things like this because my life is threatened at the moment.

Plumbthedepths

ITman88 wrote: »

You got a warning over that?????

And some of the waffle about death rates is allowed!!!

I'm still waiting for an explanation as why another poster was quoted in a warning to me.

TheCitizen

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

The trial is testing 4 different combos of approved medications used to treat other conditions.

I have been following the hydroxchloroquine and Cubas Alpha which show promise but it's a bit of a stretch to claim it will be months we see effective treatments available.

The unfortunate thing is they could all prove to have little to no effect in treating C19

Fingers crossed tho.

Or on the other hand it could result in positive news in a matter of months. With the combined effort that's going into it I'm optimistic, I know that won't go down well with some of the doom and gloom merchants around here. I don't think the WHO are inclined to make overly optimistic projections.

[Deleted User]

Doing a great job in this country. Can’t see restrictions going much further than end of April.
Hopefully a return to normality for summer time.

[Deleted User]

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Maybe she was going to leave it on your doorstep to pick up? Maybe she didn't want to put herself at risk by going into the post office, and preferred to just drop it off?

If I'd done someone a favour and this was their attitude, you can bet they'd be waiting a very long time for the next one.

It's understandable for anyone who is immunocompromised to be in a heightened state of concern.

Stheno

ITman88 wrote: »

I had mentioned vaccine in my previous post not treatment.

Prevention is better than cure.

The poster you replied to was talking about treatment not vaccines

TheCitizen

Deleted User wrote: »

Doing a great job in this country. Can’t see restrictions going much further than end of April.
Hopefully a return to normality for summer time.

Yep fair play. Concerned about The North and the rest of the UK who were slow off the mark in comparison

ITman88

TheCitizen wrote: »

Or on the other hand it could result in positive news in a matter of months.

“Could”

“Matter of months”

So to go around in another circle, the current restrictions would be unlikely to last a matter of months past April 12th.

easypazz

We closed our pubs and restaurants one day after Spain, and it was rife over there by then.

My take is we caught early. We have clusters around nursing homes and healthcare workers.

irishgeo

ITman88 wrote: »

“Could”

“Matter of months”

So to go around in another circle, the current restrictions would be unlikely to last a matter of months past April 12th.

No but foreign travel and keeping the elderly in doors could.

TheCitizen

ITman88 wrote: »

“Could”

“Matter of months”

So to go around in another circle, the current restrictions would be unlikely to last a matter of months past April 12th.

Yes mate, optimistically speaking:)

ITman88

Stheno wrote: »

The poster you replied to was talking about treatment not vaccines

Ok I appreciate that, I had mentioned the other so I apologise.

Hopefully we can leave it at that with my apology

Stheno

ITman88 wrote: »

Ok I appreciate that, I had mentioned the other so I apologise.

Hopefully we can leave it at that with my apology

No worries I was being a bit pedantic

Gael23

ITman88 wrote: »

“Could”

“Matter of months”

So to go around in another circle, the current restrictions would be unlikely to last a matter of months past April 12th.

Someone finally talking sense. I think there will be a strong drop next week and then the measures will be extended for a week or maybe two in order to make sure it stays that way.

ITman88

TheCitizen wrote: »

ITman reckons RTE and the rest of the media are willing to forego the Olympics, Euro 2020, Celebrity Bainisteoir and Star in their Eyes or whatever it's called etc. for a bit of clickbait on their website :pac:

RTE productions cost has lowered and viewership has increased.

Sport costs money.

Covid viewership is cheap production and people are glued to it.

matc66

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
which references this article from The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine in Oxford.
https://www.cebm.net/2020/03/covid-19-the-tipping-point
A quote is "Jefferson said that it was quite likely that the virus had been circulating for longer than generally believed and that large swathes of the population had already been exposed."
And
If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’

Stheno

matc66 wrote: »

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
which references this article from The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine in Oxford.
https://www.cebm.net/2020/03/covid-19-the-tipping-point
A quote is "Jefferson said that it was quite likely that the virus had been circulating for longer than generally believed and that large swathes of the population had already been exposed."
And
If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’

That's new data?

Two points

1. If 4/5 infected are asymptomatic and have already had it an antibody test would be needed to confirm this if they are now recovered
2. 4/5 infected being asymptomatic doesn't alter the fact that those who are severely affected by this would still and are overwhelming health care providers ability to care for them

Without the restrictions more would die the restrictions are there to allow our health systems to cope better

ITman88

matc66 wrote: »

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
which references this article from The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine in Oxford.
https://www.cebm.net/2020/03/covid-19-the-tipping-point
A quote is "Jefferson said that it was quite likely that the virus had been circulating for longer than generally believed and that large swathes of the population had already been exposed."
And
If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’

The theory is prevent overwhelming the health system akin to the Italian issue.

I have posted links before about issues in Italy that would make covid absolutely catastrophic in that country.

I really believe 2 difference’s in Ireland and other european countries will stand greatly in our favour against Covid

-We have a much younger population

-We have far less dense population (10 million in Lombardy in an area the size of Munster)

Much was made of the Italian health service been better than Ireland’s but this is negated in areas where 25% of the population is over 65.

easypazz

matc66 wrote: »

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
which references this article from The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine in Oxford.
https://www.cebm.net/2020/03/covid-19-the-tipping-point
A quote is "Jefferson said that it was quite likely that the virus had been circulating for longer than generally believed and that large swathes of the population had already been exposed."
And
If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’

To prevent the health service being overwhelmed.

Hence flatten the curve.

If there is a second wave herd immunity will kick in and it won't be as rampant.

In wave 2 you could be looking at social distancing, which isn't too much of a burden on people anyway, reducing capacity and bars and restaurants etc., cocooning the vulnerable groups early and locking down nursing homes etc.

matc66

One important criticism of this article is how many of the 130 individuals who tested positive, but were asymptomatic, were actually recently infected individuals, who will go on to develop symptoms at a later date.

lainey_d_123

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Even so, it’s totally unnecessary. I’m vulnerable to this virus as I have lung metastases. I shouldn’t have had to tell her that that was a stupid idea. These are incredibly stressful times for anybody with an underlying condition. I took a delivery of a prescription this week from a Garda. That was very different as those are drugs that are keeping me alive. I had politely asked her to send the battery by the way and I’ll be transferring her money for it too. I’m not ungrateful about that. By posting it, she can do some disinfection and the person-to-person contact is almost non-existent.

Yes, I will be blunt about things like this because my life is threatened at the moment.

In fairness, why did you ask for stuff then, if you didn't consider it essential? I have an underlying condition myself, but there's no excuse for being ungrateful and rude. You're very lucky to have someone willing to go out and buy things for you, and I very much hope you didn't take this tone with your sister.

Deleted User wrote: »

It's understandable for anyone who is immunocompromised to be in a heightened state of concern.

Sure, but it doesn't excuse such rudeness. There's nothing particularly high risk about dropping stuff on someone's doorstep - in fact, this is what has been advised. It's not riskier than a postman who has been to every house on the street and exposed to all sorts putting it through the letterbox.

Some people have abandoned all logic and common sense in the face of this.

avg3078

BanditLuke wrote: »

What are you talking about? RTE is the biggest media outlet in the country. They are public service broadcasting.

Controlled by the government. A lot of lies there or showing only one side of the story.