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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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[Deleted User]

500,000 not working for X weeks. Some of them will need to find new jobs as some companies will close.
Air b&bs coming back into domestic rental market.
Banks not lending as much (exemptions already a thing of the past for some banks).

Same demand as now to buy maybe but people might not be able to borrow as much.

All very much subject to ifs & buts.

1sttimebuyer20

are many others here at sale agreed stage? if so, what are your thoughts at this stage? pull out? role the dice?

I have recently renegotiated a sale agreed price which took over 3 weeks to do, of course in the mean time the extent of the damage covid-19 is going to have on the economy has become more obvious and I really do not fancy paying this price and then in 6-12 months the market has taken a nosedive.

I understand the market and the impact covid-19 is going to have is near on impossible to predict right now however I personally feel regardless of the damage done to the economy, the sheer shortage of housing will probably still outweigh the demand so where does the price drop come into play?

[Deleted User]

Phillip D wrote: »

Why would I sell it now, can still rent it and make extra money each month, if the market does crash I will just continue to rent it and wait till I am ready and I can get the most for it to sell it .

Pretty sure he was being sarcastic in his first paragraph

[Deleted User]

Cyrus wrote: »

There are parts of carrickmines that are effectively extensions of foxrock, estates of houses circa 2500 sq feet and ranging from 1m-2m I don't think Ashbourne has anything like that

Personally foxrock doesn't do anything for me anyway but I like the sea !

Totally agree, parts... Like most places. Burnaby in Greystones, some houses on King Edward Road in Bray, Newtown Park Avenue in Blackrock etc. But also other parts in all of the above that aren't like that...

Phillip D

Maitguel wrote: »

Why are you renting it and not selling it? Don’t you know you are losing thousands each day you don’t sell it? The market is going to crash!

Case and point why owners would sooner hold and rent then take a 20% cut on a property in the next 12 months.

Why would I sell it now, can still rent it and make extra money each month, if the market does crash I will just continue to rent it and wait till I am ready and I can get the most for it to sell it .

Cyrus

Deleted User wrote: »

Foxrock and Rathmichael...yeah, big difference.

Carrickmines? Hardly. But like everywhere, good and bad parts. Leopardstown "Ballyogan" comes to mind. Literally a stones throw away from Brighton Road.

There are parts of carrickmines that are effectively extensions of foxrock, estates of houses circa 2500 sq feet and ranging from 1m-2m I don't think Ashbourne has anything like that

Personally foxrock doesn't do anything for me anyway but I like the sea !

dor843088

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Someone who is looking to buy on Brighton Road won't be buying in Carrickmines. Two totally different customers. But all these areas have their pros and cons. Ballyogan is literally a stones throw away from Brighton Road, working class area. No issue with it myself but that sums up every area in every location from Blackrock to Dalkey to Bray to Greystones...

That suggests nobody in a working class area has plenty of money. Or that anybody who can afford to live in a posh area automatically does so. Far from true .

[Deleted User]

kevinc565 wrote: »

Is it worth the price difference though? Similar commute time.

brighton road is miles out of town. no shops out there, dead. nice houses but not life.

dundrum seems to have a bit of life with the shopping centre, but all the social houssign they are building might put many people off.

thoughts?

Someone who is looking to buy on Brighton Road won't be buying in Carrickmines. Two totally different customers. But all these areas have their pros and cons. Ballyogan is literally a stones throw away from Brighton Road, working class area. No issue with it myself but that sums up every area in every location from Blackrock to Dalkey to Bray to Greystones...

kevinc565

Deleted User wrote: »

Foxrock and Rathmichael...yeah, big difference.

Carrickmines? Hardly. But like everywhere, good and bad parts. Leopardstown "Ballyogan" comes to mind. Literally a stones throw away from Brighton Road.

Is it worth the price difference though? Similar commute time.

brighton road is miles out of town. no shops out there, dead. nice houses but not life.

dundrum seems to have a bit of life with the shopping centre, but all the social houssign they are building might put many people off.

thoughts?

[Deleted User]

Cyrus wrote: »

There’s a big difference between Carrickmines /fox rock /rathmichael and Ashbourne to be fair

Foxrock and Rathmichael...yeah, big difference.

Carrickmines? Hardly. But like everywhere, good and bad parts. Leopardstown "Ballyogan" comes to mind. Literally a stones throw away from Brighton Road.

Cyrus

kevinc565 wrote: »

Are people still buying out in Carrickmines? Isn't is faster to get into the city from Ashbourne?

There’s a big difference between Carrickmines /fox rock /rathmichael and Ashbourne to be fair

astrofool

kevinc565 wrote: »

Journey time is approximately the same to O'Connell bridge (40-50 minutes)

Houses still going for €1.2m out in Carrickmines. Obviously not representative etc

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-carrickmines-avenue-carrickmines-wood-carrickmines-dublin-18/4337116

Brennanstown road, not really Carrickmines, especially since the M50 went in.

Marius34

Villa05 wrote: »

To have such significant falls in the strongest selling season quarter does imply a significant downward trend was developing even before covid19 came on the scene

I'm talking about annual change, not Q4 with Q1 comparison.
Now a question.
CSO showed a rebound in positive territory for Dublin on annual basis for January (in March report), if CSO shows same for February/March (in April/May reports), does that still mean that there was significant downward trends before covid19?
Seeing CSO latest report what does it tell to you about Dublin?

Again I'm not talking about future or present times, but a pre-Covid19 times. Everyone, including me, is aware here, that Covid-19 is and will be producing negative trends.

OttoPilot

Taylor365 wrote: »

Maybe they want to have some sort of control over their investment.

With way less liquidity, more responsibility and way more hours work to put in. Way more risk because if anything happens to that single property, you're ****ed.

Taylor365

OttoPilot wrote: »

If you want to invest in property, why not just put your money in a reit? Will you be moving to another place you already own or will you need to get a mortgage?

Maybe they want to have some sort of control over their investment.

Villa05

Marius34 wrote:

It's fantastic to see, how people in here suddenly take Daft asking price report, as a right source to tell property price change. It had no interest one year ago, when daft reported its 2019Q1 report, with over 4% annual increase for Dublin, where as CSO already showed below 2% for Dublin. Back than it was CSO that mattered, as Daft provides only "Asking", that doesn't tell much on the actual sales...

The answer to the difference is in the daft report. The first quarter is the strongest quarter of the year due to banks using up there allowable exemptions to the normal central banks rule. The cso report looks back at actual prices property achieved.

There can be significant delays between sale agreed and the property coming on the cso register after the property has sold. The CSO report at date of issue is looking back at the quieter autumn winter sales

Both reports are very useful, you just got to know when to use them.

The daft report is forward looking and a good barometer of sellers/estate agents expectations

The CSO report is useful for checking historically achieved prices and prices achieved in the street you wish to buy in. This needs to be aided by expectant trends which the daft report is good for.

To have such significant falls in the strongest selling season quarter does imply a significant downward trend was developing even before covid19 came on the scene

It also shows affordability is a major issue regardless of strong demand

Maitguel

Phillip D wrote: »

Hi I have an apartment in santry north dublin. living in it at the moment looking to move out and rent it out.

Why are you renting it and not selling it? Don’t you know you are losing thousands each day you don’t sell it? The market is going to crash!

Case and point why owners would sooner hold and rent then take a 20% cut on a property in the next 12 months.

OttoPilot

Phillip D wrote: »

Hi I have an apartment in santry north dublin. living in it at the moment looking to move out and rent it out.

If you want to invest in property, why not just put your money in a reit? Will you be moving to another place you already own or will you need to get a mortgage?

Browney7

Phillip D wrote: »

Hi I have an apartment in santry north dublin. living in it at the moment looking to move out and rent it out.

You need to consider a lot of things on the apartment - what did you buy it for, for how long was it your PPR for calculating CGT relief, what tax band are you in for assessing rental income etc etc.

The markets for purchasing one beds will probably take a hit in the next year as banks tighten up credit and mortgage lending. They already tended to want a higher deposit so you may have no choice but to rent it out if you have to move somewhere else.

Phillip D

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Are you buying are selling? Do you intend to become a tenant or landlord?

Hi I have an apartment in santry north dublin. living in it at the moment looking to move out and rent it out.

awec

kevinc565 wrote: »

Journey time is approximately the same to O'Connell bridge (40-50 minutes)

Houses still going for €1.2m out in Carrickmines. Obviously not representative etc

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-carrickmines-avenue-carrickmines-wood-carrickmines-dublin-18/4337116

The journey time may be similar but the Luas is significantly better than Dublin Bus.

Houses all along the green line have an added premium.

Obviously the majority of houses in carrickmines are nowhere near 1.2million.

Claw Hammer

Phillip D wrote: »

Hi does anyone think it's a good idea to get on the property ladder in the next few months, I'm looking to rent out a 1 bed apartment.

Are you buying are selling? Do you intend to become a tenant or landlord?

Phillip D

Hi does anyone think it's a good idea to get on the property ladder in the next few months, I'm looking to rent out a 1 bed apartment.

voluntary

Stop looking at January's transaction data. It's irrelevant.

Marius34

kevinc565 wrote: »

Dies, dammed lies and statistics.

COVID-19. Deaths lag confirmed infections, which are only a proxy for actual infection which nobody knows ( unless you test everyone repeatedly.)

House prices : the PPR is released well after prices have been agreed -hence lag. Asking prices tend to lag actual prices, takes a while for the chattering classes to ascertain what their property will fetch.

Point : lag,lag,lag

I'm well aware of how PPR works, I'm following it for years. What I'm talking about in here, is not about what to expect from property price future, but the data people focus on, to represent current/past property data.
Other than that, 2019Q1 daft showed 4% increase in Dublin, PPR was not on the lag side to the Daft reports, in fact PPR was way lower few months later.

Claw Hammer

wassie wrote: »

So what your saying is someones periodical opinion of the price of 43 houses over 20 years is a more reliable indicator of the Dublin property market versus actual sales data?..

In terms of following the overall trends, yes!

wassie

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The only good method of tracking trends in the market is the one adopted by one of the agents about 20 years ago. They took a selection of 43 houses in Dublin, valued them periodically as to what they would expect to fetch for them and us could track the trend in the market as opposed to relying on statistics which are often distorted.

So what your saying is someones periodical opinion of the price of a handful of houses over 20 years is a more reliable indicator of the Dublin property market versus actual sales data?....I'll keep relying on the 'distorted statistics'.

kevinc565

beauf wrote: »

There are always properties on the market way over priced and sit there for years. Adverts is the same people try to sell used stuff for more than you can buy it new. None of this is new.

If someone doesn't want to sell or drop just move on.

I've seen properties sit for almost a decade empty.

Wow, I haven't seen a decade, but i have seen a few hang around for 2-3 years.

kevinc565

Marius34 wrote: »

It's fantastic to see, how people in here suddenly take Daft asking price report, as a right source to tell property price change. It had no interest one year ago, when daft reported its 2019Q1 report, with over 4% annual increase for Dublin, where as CSO already showed below 2% for Dublin. Back than it was CSO that mattered, as Daft provides only "Asking", that doesn't tell much on the actual sales...
https://www.daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-2019q1-dafthouseprice
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexfebruary2019/

Dies, dammed lies and statistics.

COVID-19. Deaths lag confirmed infections, which are only a proxy for actual infection which nobody knows ( unless you test everyone repeatedly.)

House prices : the PPR is released well after prices have been agreed -hence lag. Asking prices tend to lag actual prices, takes a while for the chattering classes to ascertain what their property will fetch.

Point : lag,lag,lag

kevinc565

awec wrote: »

Carrickmines has the Luas. The Luas is better than Dublin Bus.

Journey time is approximately the same to O'Connell bridge (40-50 minutes)

Houses still going for €1.2m out in Carrickmines. Obviously not representative etc

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-carrickmines-avenue-carrickmines-wood-carrickmines-dublin-18/4337116