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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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boetstark

easypazz wrote: »

So your exit strategy is?

Government restrictions will not be the magic cure for this outbreak. You can have a total lock down and a certain percentage will still ignore it. I had to drive to Limerick City centre today. First time outside home in 10 days. I had to charge my car. Lots of people out and about walking around. Traffic lighter than usual but still plenty of cars driving about.
I reckon this is going to run its course regardless

brick tamland

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

I've said a million times that the only workable solution is to slowly start opening things back up gradually once we're over the peak and the number of cases has stabilised, with the most vulnerable staying at home for longer and those who are younger/healthier/already had the virus heading back to work.

You've previously kept talking about 'four weeks', as if any of us are talking about it being difficult to keep to four weeks of lockdown. Nobody is saying that. Of course people can 'suck it up' for a month or so. The question is, what happens beyond that?

It's really starting to worry me how many people seem to think they can stay at home for a few weeks for the 'greater good' and then everything will be grand.

This exactly this

the only question is when the restrictions will start to be eased a little. They will when the numbers come down and we have the correct mitigation in place. I reckon the end of April, mid may at the latest. Leaving it longer wont make it go away and everything go back to normal as some seem to think.

Thelonious Monk

Who thinks it's going to go away and things will go back to normal any time soon? Normal is gone forever.

brick tamland

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Who thinks it's going to go away and things will go back to normal any time soon? Normal is gone forever.

wont be forever, this virus will eventually run its course. May take a few years though

[Deleted User]

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Who thinks it's going to go away and things will go back to normal any time soon? Normal is gone forever.

Normal is not ‘gone forever’. Christ.

lainey_d_123

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Who thinks it's going to go away and things will go back to normal any time soon? Normal is gone forever.

And you were calling me a drama queen?

Hilarious.

easypazz

Deleted User wrote: »

Normal is not ‘gone forever’. Christ.

I don't know, air travel may be decimated to the point that whatever number of planes are in service now we end up with a much lower % of that and air fares will be expensive and there will be no more flying to the Canaries for 3 nights or flying to Liverpool for a soccer match.

Thelonious Monk

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

And you were calling me a drama queen?

Hilarious.

Yeah your posts are always dramatic, you need to chill. What I mean is this whole thing will change the world in many ways with travel and gatherings etc., never mind how f*cked the economy is. It's a watershed moment like 9/11.

brick tamland

easypazz wrote: »

I don't know, air travel may be decimated to the point that whatever number of planes are in service now we end up with a much lower % of that and air fares will be expensive and there will be no more flying to the Canaries for 3 nights or flying to Liverpool for a soccer match.

Once there will be a market for this (and there will be, and maybe more than ever after a few years of no travel) there will be sufficient suppliers providing the service, once there is money to be made

[Deleted User]

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

And you were calling me a drama queen?

Hilarious.

This is going to reshape everything for years to come and plenty of things will simply remain indefinitely out of hyper awareness that we didn't previously have. I'm pretty sure I'll end up working from home for half the week even after June. In terms of going on a holiday, that's going to be radically different. Measures to prevent viruses from bricking an economy will also be something that will have to be developed as well.

VinLieger

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Normal is not ‘gone forever’. Christ.

The previous normal is gone forever just like the normal prior to 9/11 is gone forever, we just dont know yet what the full extent of the new normal will be

Gael23

My reading of this morning’s statement is that if deaths and ICU admissions stabilise restrictions will be relaxed, not removed.

TheCitizen

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Yeah your posts are always dramatic, you need to chill. What I mean is this whole thing will change the world in many ways with travel and gatherings etc., never mind how f*cked the economy is. It's a watershed moment like 9/11.

9/11 changes were adapted into normal life and we don't notice the changes that came from it anymore like the extra security measures in airports etc.. They'll have a vaccine for this in 12 to 18 months. They'll have effective drug treatments for it this summer going by reports.

The recent banking crisis added 120 billion to the national debt. This will be something like 30 billion according to recent projections, and it's bailing out citizens and enterprise in this country. Money better spent with a return from it unlike the black hole they poured 120 billion into.

faceman

easypazz wrote: »

2 minutes ago your strategy was:

So your strategy is indefinite lockdown for all, which research paper was this based on?

Do you just make stuff up as you go? Where did I say an indefinite lockdown? Nowhere pal

storker

easypazz wrote: »

Big difference there!

Not to the thrust of my argument. We're bailing out the citizens for half what it cost to bail out the banks, from which we recovered in less than a decade in a scenario where Ireland had done a solo run putting the pedal to the metal and sending the bus over a cliff. This time everyone's involved and we won't need to be made an example of.

[Deleted User]

TheCitizen wrote: »

9/11 changes were adapted into normal life and we don't notice the changes that came from it anymore like the extra security measures in airports etc.. They'll have a vaccine for this in 12 to 18 months. They'll have effective drug treatments for it this summer going by reports.

The recent banking crisis added 120 billion to the national debt. This will be something like 30 billion according to recent projections, and it's bailing out citizens and enterprise in this country. Money better spent with a return from it unlike the black hole they poured 120 billion into.

Thing is that this has made people fully realise the dangers of viruses which often get portrayed as making a big deal out of nothing. So I just can't see drastic long terms changes not being a thing.

easypazz

faceman wrote: »

Do you just make stuff up as you go? Where did I say an indefinite lockdown? Nowhere pal

I will quote YOUR management strategy again for you.

faceman wrote: »

There is no exit strategy without a vaccine or cure. There are only management strategies in the meantime. And all the research points toward the same things. Restricted social contact and public movement across the board.

By my reading of YOUR strategy, until such time as there is a vaccine or cure, restrictions on social contact and public movement must continue, across the board.

A vaccine could be 2 years away, so I take it you are saying 2 years of this is possible, if I misread YOUR strategy, please clarify it.

IAMAMORON

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Who thinks it's going to go away and things will go back to normal any time soon? Normal is gone forever.

I do. That is all.

Nothing lasts forever.

I am sorry, things will not be as "dramatic" in the future, in time life will get back to normal.

storker

TheCitizen wrote: »

9/11 changes were adapted into normal life and we don't notice the changes that came from it anymore like the extra security measures in airports etc.

Not disagreeing with your overall point but I still notice these. I remember the days when you could see someone off at the airport and then go out on the terminal roof to look at the aircraft through coin-operated binoculars.

Thanks a lot, international terrorism.

TheCitizen

Deleted User wrote: »

Thing is that this has made people fully realise the dangers of viruses which often get portrayed as making a big deal out of nothing. So I just can't see drastic long terms changes not being a thing.

They've had virus crises and other epidemic and pandemic health crises before as well and they were contained (never fully eradicated in some cases) when medical science caught up with them.

Dakota Dan

Can anyone explain why Ireland’s largest hospital is practically empty even the respiratory lab is empty?

https://mobile.twitter.com/DeplorableJim79/status/1243804933117358082?fbclid=IwAR0hvY9UntswyeyF9iRFQjGiIJFo0JHc_9c1SSuyZAEWc4SNvTk4Mk_hDbI

easypazz

storker wrote: »

Not disagreeing with your overall point but I still notice these. I remember the days when you could see someone off at the airport and then go out on the terminal roof to look at the aircraft through coin-operated binoculars.

Thanks a lot, international terrorism.

Or when you could bring a replica grenade or gun on a plane.

IAMAMORON

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Yeah your posts are always dramatic, you need to chill. What I mean is this whole thing will change the world in many ways with travel and gatherings etc., never mind how f*cked the economy is. It's a watershed moment like 9/11.

The economy is actually not that fúcked either. It is a bailout of circa 8 billion. That is 4% of the bank bailout. I am media cynical and I have noticed TV3 news ramping up the economic panic the last few days. It actually is no real biggie.

To put things in perspective, every penny in extra dole payments gets poured back into our domestic economy. Where else can it be spent? 23% of it goes straight back to the government in VAT. The rest the supermarkets get and they will pay tax on their profits, and on and on.

It is not as bad as people are making out. It is not good and some businesses will go bust, but the world is not ending. This virus will pass and people will recover, despite the drama.

If you want drama go to central Lombardy and open up the Deaths column in the local newspaper, it is now filling 8 pages a day.

IAMAMORON

Dakota Dan wrote: »

Can anyone explain why Ireland’s largest hospital is practically empty even the respiratory lab is empty?

https://mobile.twitter.com/DeplorableJim79/status/1243804933117358082?fbclid=IwAR0hvY9UntswyeyF9iRFQjGiIJFo0JHc_9c1SSuyZAEWc4SNvTk4Mk_hDbI

You're welcome to go and hang out there if you like? Sure only 25-30% of health workers are getting infected , you should be fine?

On a more serious note, Dr Holohan did make the same observation when he went for a check up. He has since urged potential patients to contact their local hospitals if they have issues. You should not be neglecting your health.

PMBC

Dakota Dan wrote: »

Can anyone explain why Ireland’s largest hospital is practically empty even the respiratory lab is empty?

https://mobile.twitter.com/DeplorableJim79/status/1243804933117358082?fbclid=IwAR0hvY9UntswyeyF9iRFQjGiIJFo0JHc_9c1SSuyZAEWc4SNvTk4Mk_hDbI

Lots of elective treatment have been postponed freeing up beds fora probable surge. Staff are being trained up to deal with Covid patients. Alos people are being careful and are staying away whereas previously they would go to A&E and possibly end up on wards.
That is how I read it - I don't have any inside information

easypazz

IAMAMORON wrote: »

The economy is actually not that fúcked either. It is a bailout of circa 8 billion. That is 4% of the bank bailout. I am media cynical and I have noticed TV3 news ramping up the economic panic the last few days. It actually is no real biggie.

To put things in perspective, every penny in extra dole payments gets poured back into our domestic economy. Where else can it be spent? 23% of it goes straight back to the government in VAT. The rest the supermarkets get and they will pay tax on their profits, and on and on.

It is not as bad as people are making out. It is not good and some businesses will go bust, but the world is not ending. This virus will pass and people will recover, despite the drama.

If you want drama go to central Lombardy and open up the Deaths column in the local newspaper, it is now filling 8 pages a day.

Agree 100%, if the government hand out €10 billion, maybe €6 Billion comes trickles back in taxes.

Its like giving a teacher a €5K pay rise, 50% comes straight back in tax and then they spend it on food drink restaurants so 23% of that goes back in tax and then then the waiter pays income tax and then the bit he spends trickles back via VAT and so on, so it really only cost €1000 to give a €5K pay rise.

We are good for 3 months with this.

seamusk84

I would love to go for a pint this evening. 7pm sitting with a pint of Guinness in my local when it is bright outside at the start of a spring weekend.....

A different world...

jay0109

TheCitizen wrote: »

9/11 changes were adapted into normal life and we don't notice the changes that came from it anymore like the extra security measures in airports etc.. They'll have a vaccine for this in 12 to 18 months. They'll have effective drug treatments for it this summer going by reports.

The recent banking crisis added 120 billion to the national debt. This will be something like 30 billion according to recent projections, and it's bailing out citizens and enterprise in this country. Money better spent with a return from it unlike the black hole they poured 120 billion into.

I do't know how many times this has to be explained to people.

The Bank bailout cost about 40bn.
The other 80bn was the cost of running the country for 2010-2017 while we lived beyond our means...spending was greater than income. Because we didn't really make the hard decisions...we borrowed instead.

Dakota Dan

IAMAMORON wrote: »

You're welcome to go and hang out there if you like? Sure only 25-30% of health workers are getting infected , you should be fine?

On a more serious note, Dr Holohan did make the same observation when he went for a check up. He has since urged potential patients to contact their local hospitals if they have issues. You should not be neglecting your health.

I was just asking no need to get all defensive over it.

odyssey06

seamusk84 wrote: »

I would love to go for a pint this evening. 7pm sitting with a pint of Guinness in my local when it is bright outside at the start of a spring weekend..... A different world...

If you can get to McCoys in Carrickstown they still seem to be open somehow, according to the RTE documentary I saw this week...