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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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faceman

easypazz wrote: »

So what is your exit strategy?

There is no exit strategy without a vaccine or cure. There are only management strategies in the meantime. And all the research points toward the same things. Restricted social contact and public movement across the board.

salmocab

easypazz wrote: »

€350x500000 people x 12 weeks

=€2.2BILLION

Although to be fair a lot of those people would be due dole anyway so it’s about 150 extra per person a pile of which gets sent straight back to the state in the form of VAT

Thelonious Monk

jmayo wrote: »

FFS one would think half the country is suffering from mental illness or suicidal tendencies listening to some posters

For a lot of people I'd say mental illness means their life didn't turn out how they wanted it to and they aren't willing to graft enough to change things

**runs for cover**

HBC08

Logan Roy wrote: »

Have heard from a well informed source that significant % of petrol stations will have to close under stricter measures to be implemented.

A person in the know told me your well informed source is full of it.

TheCitizen

alias no.9 wrote: »

*Pure Speculation but possible changes*

No outdoor exercise.

Limited access to shops, maybe two visits a week per household with just a single person making that trip.

A further tightening of the types of workplace allowed to operate.

Don't assume that the current scenario is as tight as it will get. If you don't want to see it getting locked down further, then isolate as best as you can and use whatever influence you have to get others to do the same.

Restrictions will get tighter until it is contained. Restrictions will start to lift after a lag of two to three weeks after effective containment.

jonnny68 wrote: »

not gonna happen, its bad enough as it is, this wont end well if tney attempt to impose any of those restrictions you mentioned, not in the slightest.

Not going to happen? According to who exactly - you?

The above is the sort of lockdown that has happened in Italy and Spain. We hopefully won't need that level of lockdown, but if it's determined that we do; then it will happen and people have to grow up and show a bit of discipline and adhere to it if necessary.

El_Duderino 09

Gael23 wrote: »

You have healthy older people too. My grandad is 83 soon and apart from worn out knees and being hard of hearing he’s in pretty good health

Ok, Well, I'm not a doctor, but I'd lay money on a healthy 83 year old being less well able to deal with the disease than a healthy 30 year old.

And maybe they'll do a series of physical tests to assess health and life expectancy, but in the heat of a triage situation where there is a normal 30 year old and a normal 83 year old in need of treatment, they'll prioritise the 30 year old. And rightly so.

P.E. I'm sure your grandad is in great health and I hope he stays that way

lainey_d_123

KiKi III wrote: »

Your view of “herd immunity” is not supported by evidence and the countries that tried it have all backtracked.

You should read some of the descriptions of “mild” symptoms. I’m healthy, young people this can include a week of high fever and difficulty breathing.

They backtracked because they realised it would result in an enormous spike of deaths beyond what the health systems can cope with. Herd immunity is still the 'end goal'. Most people WILL get this virus at one stage or another. The goal isn't to stop most people getting it, it's to stagger the cases in a way the system can cope.

VinLieger

Logan Roy wrote: »

That's grand, you can mock me all you want. I'm just passing on what I was told by somebody who owns one.

And they are lying to you, the petrol station whatsapp message was fake anyone who still believes it needs their head examined

odyssey06

KiKi III wrote: »

We collected 10.4billion in taxes last year.
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0509/1048408-revenue-commissioners-annual-report/
This is going to be expensive, no one is denying that - but we’ll get through it.

We won't be collecting that much this year. The figures quoted so far on the thread are greatly exceeded by the governments own projections.

The economic cost of the coronavirus crisis through fiscal supports and deferred tax revenue will likely be over €16 billion... That would be on top of an estimated €8 billion cost of the measures already put in place by Government to tackle the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic... The latest Exchequer figures from the Department of Finance showed that total tax revenues for the first quarter of 2020 were €800m lower than expectations.
...
The Government reported an overall Exchequer deficit of €2.535 billion for the three months to the end of March, a massive increase of 162% on the deficit of €966m the same time last year.
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0402/1128100-exchequer-figures/

hmmm

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

It's really starting to worry me how many people seem to think they can stay at home for a few weeks for the 'greater good' and then everything will be grand.

Agreed. No public health professional is saying that a lockdown can be anything other than temporary. The country cannot afford an 18 month lockdown until a vaccine emerges.

The only solution is testing, contact tracing and some social distancing. I expect we will be asking the most vulnerable groups to stay indoors - unfortunate, but what can we do? I also expect that immunity testing will start, and those people will be allowed go straight back to work.

The authoritarian fantasy that the army will be patrolling housing estates in Ireland shooting people who venture outside their houses is never going to happen. The government is just about holding onto public support, and have done a good job so far.

easypazz

faceman wrote: »

There is no exit strategy without a vaccine or cure. There are only management strategies in the meantime. And all the research points toward the same things. Restricted social contact and public movement across the board.

So your management strategy is lock everybody down indefinitely, even the low risk, rather than just locking down the high risk?

This way the economy may be crippled indefinitely?

Why have you an issue with easing restrictions on low risk categories?

easypazz

Logan Roy wrote: »

That's grand, you can mock me all you want. I'm just passing on what I was told by somebody who owns one.

The government don't sent memos out to interested parties ahead of announcing restrictions.

In any case the death toll and ICU situation are both reasonable at the moment so no major restrictions are to be expected at this time.

lainey_d_123

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

For a lot of people I'd say mental illness means their life didn't turn out how they wanted it to and they aren't willing to graft enough to change things

**runs for cover**

This is the typical answer given by people with limited intelligence, life experience and empathy.

It doesn't help that so many people think they're mentally ill when they're stressed/tired/a bit down. If the 'treatment' for your 'illness' is an hour of talking to a therapist once a week, you're not f**king ill. You're a normal person having a bit of a hard time.

You want to know what ill looks like? I had a friend on the phone for almost two hours on Thursday. He's suffered from OCD for years following a traumatic incident, and this situation has hugely triggered it, at the same time that he's no longer able to go to his targeted therapy or hospital. He went to the shop to get some food on Thursday morning and spent over two hours washing, disinfecting and sanitising every single one of the packages, over and over again, and then another hour washing his hands until they were cracked and bleeding. His girlfriend can't take any more of the obsessions and compulsions and has moved out, and he's been seriously considering suicide for at least a week because he just can't see any way out. He's spent time in mental health units before but that's not an option at the moment. His entire support system is now completely gone. He hasn't slept in days and his physical health is in tatters as well now.

So maybe people who think they're ill because they get a bit anxious now and then should wise the f**k up and realise that some people have genuine, desperate problems that aren't solved by going for a nice walk or reading a book.

storker

easypazz wrote: »

€350x500000 people x 12 weeks

=€2.2BILLION

Misspelling, I meant to say billion. The rest of my point stands.

Thelonious Monk

Lads the economy is totally and utterly f*cked. We can't just open it back up anyway. The rest of the world wont be doing that any time soon. Look at the USA, worst in the world for covid now. We live in a globalised world and we need the rest of the world to be up and running again.
So we can't just keep old people inside and all will go back to normal, there's lots of hardship coming that's just how it is.

[Deleted User]

niallo27 wrote: »

Why go to the extreme, there has to be a balance here.

You described people as snowflakes in relation to this so you are the extreme...

Thelonious Monk

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

This is the typical answer given by people with limited intelligence, life experience and empathy....

Yeah that's all terrible Lainey and we all have our problems but your friends OCD and my total isolation and zero company pales in comparison with the bigger issues at play here. So we all have to suck it up.

easypazz

storker wrote: »

Misspelling, I meant to say billion. The rest of my point stands.

Big difference there!

Hmmzis

easypazz wrote: »

I genuinely hope you are right, but then the risk is somebody imports it and the cycle starts again and we are back to square one.

My view is we build herd immunity, let younger and healthier people to mix gradually at a rate that hospitals can cope, and then once a lot of people are immune allow old people into the mix, with so many people immune the risk is lower.

Its about controlling the deaths and the ICU beds. No matter how we manage it there will be many deaths.

Her immunity is going to take decades at the current rate. A vaccine or treatment should (hopefully) be sooner.

odyssey06

storker wrote: »

Misspelling, I meant to say billion. The rest of my point stands.

It's more like 24 billion euros. I don't think you can stand over a point when you are out by a factor of 10.

[Deleted User]

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

This is the typical answer given by people with limited intelligence, life experience and empathy.

It doesn't help that so many people think they're mentally ill when they're stressed/tired/a bit down. If the 'treatment' for your 'illness' is an hour of talking to a therapist once a week, you're not f**king ill. You're a normal person having a bit of a hard time.

You want to know what ill looks like? I had a friend on the phone for almost two hours on Thursday. He's suffered from OCD for years following a traumatic incident, and this situation has hugely triggered it, at the same time that he's no longer able to go to his targeted therapy or hospital. He went to the shop to get some food on Thursday morning and spent over two hours washing, disinfecting and sanitising every single one of the packages, over and over again, and then another hour washing his hands until they were cracked and bleeding. His girlfriend can't take any more of the obsessions and compulsions and has moved out, and he's been seriously considering suicide for at least a week because he just can't see any way out. He's spent time in mental health units before but that's not an option at the moment. His entire support system is now completely gone. He hasn't slept in days and his physical health is in tatters as well now.

So maybe people who think they're ill because they get a bit anxious now and then should wise the f**k up and realise that some people have genuine, desperate problems that aren't solved by going for a nice walk or reading a book.

Agree 100%. Someone close to me has suffered from a chronic anxiety condition for the last 10 years, and has prescription sedatives to help cope. Imagine, if you are able, how debilitating the anxiety attacks must be, now that this has been heaped upon her. The only thing that keeps these attacks at bay is movement, whether long (and i mean very long) bouts of exercise, or travel to different environments periodically. Right now, her days are consumed by anxiety and nervous energy and we are trying desperately to avoid her getting addicted to sedatives

VinLieger

easypazz wrote: »

So your management strategy is lock everybody down indefinitely, even the low risk, rather than just locking down the high risk?

This way the economy may be crippled indefinitely?

Why have you an issue with easing restrictions on low risk categories?

Low risk still require hospitalisation at a level that could cripple the hospitals, Italy shows this irrefutably

easypazz

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Lads the economy is totally and utterly f*cked. We can't just open it back up anyway. The rest of the world wont be doing that any time soon. Look at the USA, worst in the world for covid now. We live in a globalised world and we need the rest of the world to be up and running again.
So we can't just keep old people inside and all will go back to normal, there's lots of hardship coming that's just how it is.

We don't have our usual emigration valve either, and we will have (guess 100000 - 200000) Irish coming back from abroad who got stuck up in this one way or another.

So we could have a lot of extra people on this island to provide for.

easypazz

VinLieger wrote: »

Low risk still require hospitalisation at a level that could cripple the hospitals, Italy shows this irrefutably

Ease restrictions gradually so that the hospitals are not overwhelmed.

Somebody said Spain are looking at this, ease restrictions by age group.

VinLieger

easypazz wrote: »

Ease restrictions gradually so that the hospitals are not overwhelmed.

Somebody said Spain are looking at this, ease restrictions by age group.

Indeed but its not gonna happen soon

easypazz

VinLieger wrote: »

Indeed but its not gonna happen soon

So your exit strategy is?

faceman

easypazz wrote: »

So your management strategy is lock everybody down indefinitely, even the low risk, rather than just locking down the high risk?

This way the economy may be crippled indefinitely?

Why have you an issue with easing restrictions on low risk categories?

All research papers on Covid-19 are free to access at the moment. Do some research yourself and come back to us

El_Duderino 09

Deleted User wrote: »

Agree 100%. Someone close to me has suffered from a chronic anxiety condition for the last 10 years, and has prescription sedatives to help cope. Imagine, if you are able, how debilitating the anxiety attacks must be, now that this has been heaped upon her. The only thing that keeps these attacks at bay is movement, whether long (and i mean very long) bouts of exercise, or travel to different environments periodically. Right now, her days are consumed by anxiety and nervous energy and we are trying desperately to avoid her getting addicted to sedatives

That's brutal.

Not being flippant when I say that online exercise classes are great. I've been trying different ones and they are genuinely brilliant. There are ones for all levels of fitness, cardio workouts with low impact for people with joint pain and whatever else. Much easier said than done, but it's worth researching some and offering to do them at the same time as her and phone after to chat about how it went - the closest thing to doing them together and offering a bit of social support.

VinLieger

easypazz wrote: »

So your exit strategy is?

A gradual easing of restrictions exactly what the government has planned but we cannot rush this, i dont see anything happening till mid may tbh.

easypazz

faceman wrote: »

All research papers on Covid-19 are free to access at the moment. Do some research yourself and come back to us

2 minutes ago your strategy was:

faceman wrote: »

There is no exit strategy without a vaccine or cure. There are only management strategies in the meantime. And all the research points toward the same things. Restricted social contact and public movement across the board.

So your strategy is indefinite lockdown for all, which research paper was this based on?