bdmc5 wrote: You could argue The flip side When the time comes we come out of this there will be a huge bottle neck of buyers who had been holding off and developers will hold back stock to push up prices back up as mass employment slowly builds back up again. There’s still a large portion of people working from home earning full wages so it’s nowhere near as clear certain of a meltdown of The housing market as you make out.
bdmc5 wrote: » Last few days of following this thread Ive these posts wildly speculating 30 percent drops in houses this year, that rental market is crashing and we will have mass emigration. I realised that these hysterical posts have all been left by you. Like the rest of us you don’t have a clue what we happen at the end of the day. i would recommend if you are in the market for a home then dont buy as I dont think you will be able to tolerate the stress short to medium term drop in property prices. You could argue The flip side When the time comes we come out of this there will be a huge bottle neck of buyers who had been holding off and developers will hold back stock to push up prices back up as mass employment slowly builds back up again. There’s still a large portion of people working from home earning full wages so it’s nowhere near as clear certain of a meltdown of The housing market as you make out.
Over the next three months, it believes the economy here could collapse by 25%.
voluntary wrote: » The drop is inevitable but the size of it can't be predicted. Note, even after 2008 shock many European countries only reported tiny real estate corrections. Ireland was exceptional with it's pumped up to bubble and burst. Talking about specific numbers like 10% or 20% or 30% is premature and purely speculation. BTW, The Central Bank has spoken:
voluntary wrote: » Why 30% and not 50% then?
pearcider wrote: » There’s plenty of availability I think there’s a quarter of a million empty dwellings in Ireland. When the credit bubble collapses the market will clear a lot of these.
DubCount wrote: » I have to say, I feel some of this thread is driven by what people want to happen
Pivot Eoin wrote: » This thread is purely speculation, and obviously driven a lot by people in here, just about ready to get into the housing market. Look at any of the posts predicting a big correction, loaded with thanks. Anything suggesting it's too early to tell (which it is) is being disputed by people who clearly are short term in their thinking wanting housing prices to fally by 30%. Just hold out for now and see what happens, Whether Johnny Nobody thinks it is going to drop by 30% is irrelevant, just because someone says it on Boards, doesn't mean it will happen. Relax.
KilOit wrote: » Why would anyone sell 30% below current market rate when all they have to do is wait till next year when things can somewhat get back to normal. People here are delusional
DubCount wrote: » I expect unemployment to be at 30% by June, but I cant see it being at 30% in December. This situation will create an economic downturn, but when lockdown is over, people will return to shopping in shops, eating in restaurants and going on holidays. We will not return to full employment, or be back economically to where we were last December, but activity will pick up to some degree after lockdown comes to an end.
cd76 wrote: » I don't agree, Yes Corona is global but hopefully will be over(bar a second coming - hopefully not). The US tech companies here are largely for support functions; Google, Linkedin, Facebook doing marketing and support. They will "right size" their organisations. The most marketable people will emigrate as they did previously. Trump is going to insist the majority of the US multinationals repatriate businesses. If he wins in Nov then it will not be good for the MNCs in Ireland...especially the Pharmas.
snotboogie wrote: » I've noticed a big trend of these predictions about the end of Multinationals in Ireland, posted with a sense of gleeful schadenfreude
Reversal wrote: » And just because John Nobody can't come to terms with the possibility that they bought at the top, doesn't make a fall in prices any less likely. Agreed there is some outlandish claims and biases. But on both sides, have a look at the post history of those here saying prices won't drop, more often than not they are recent buyers. What we do know now is; 1. The housing market had already softened throughout, with year on year drops seen in Dublin throughout 2019. Source CSO. This does not point to "pent up demand" that can weather a depression. Again we do have an undersupply when compared to what society needs, i.e that 35K units a year figure. But the demand for buying is far less than this, as it's only made up of people who can and want to buy. The levelling off, and dropping in some areas, of values throughout 2019 points to the 20K units a year approximately meeting the actual demand. 2. We are now entering an economic shock. And we are going into a recession. And now, there seems little hope of a V shape curve, most predictions show long lasting effects. 3. We have seen huge job losses. The best predictions we have are that half of these will be permanently lost. 4. A lot of those who are not jobless will see reduced incomes, and prospects of wage increases are gone. 5. Banks have already restricted lending. In some banks, exemptions above 3.5 times salary are already a thing of the past. The next thing that will be tightened up is likely to be LTV values. People with 10% deposits or close to will find themselves not being eligible for a mortgage anymore. Buyers will be taken out of the market. And 20% of those who remain who would have got exemptions will now have their buying power reduced by 25%. It is correct to say we don't know how this will go in exact percentage terms, but the likely direction is a foregone conclusion. But those believing in static prices, are just as deluded as the predictions for a drop of 50%. The truth is, in my opinion, probably somewhere in the middle. But only time will tell.
snotboogie wrote: » I've noticed a big trend of these predictions about the end of Multinationals in Ireland, posted with a sense of gleeful schadenfreude. I don't think you have the first clue about how bad things would get here if your predictions were to come true. This would not be snobby marketing hipsters at Google being brought down a peg or two followed by a utopia of cheap accommodation, it would be the obliteration of our tax base, job market and public services, with a reach far beyond those directly working for multinationals. At this moment, its really difficult to predict the economy in 6 to 9 months but I would take some comfort in the lack of accuracy of your predictions considering you are calling the Pharma industry to be brought to heel by the US Government, despite that same industry currently (and for the foreseeable future, long beyond November) having possibly the single biggest leverage position over the US government in our lifetimes.
fliball123 wrote: » Point1 I agree with you but your wrong if the banks took the lending restrictions away there would of been a lot more people buying and prices would of went up a lot more. How can you ignore the facts born out in the recent general election when SF won most votes stating it would be building a sh1t load more houses and figures were coming in that we needed 35k houses built year on year for the forseeable future (not just this and next year) to catch up with demand. Not to mention the figure of 100k on the housing list. You need to understand the difference between a house built in the back ass of no where and a house built in a place with amenities that a person can actually live in. Now yes we will lose demand by OAPs dying, foreigners going home and people sitting on their savings and not spending, but we will also lose supply building sites are shut down, a lot of the foreign workers going home where builders or in that skillset i.e sparks, plumbers etc. Not to mention that pre corona builders were kicking a stink saying it was not economically viable for them to build and that was before your notion of a 30% price drop. Point 2: yes we are after receiving a big shock and neither you or I or anyone else knows how this will pan out. I think the government are actually doing a good job with regards to looking after people who lost their jobs, it means life can go on. It is predicted that it will cost 30 billion about a fifth of the banking crisis in 08 but they are guessing as well. Point 3: See point 2 you or I do not know how many jobs will remain lost. What I can see is Ireland has one of the best strategies for getting people back to work in the world, with the social welfare and those on it having access to jobs, training and education for those who want to can reskill and get back out there. Point 4: Pay rises in work had not been happening much throughout the last decade after the bank crash very few people in the private sector got payrises. Public sector get increments. I wonder if the PS will have to take a pay cut again Point 5: I cant see those measures taken out by the bank being tightened already there was a clamor for them to loosen the restrictions as this was a huge factor in people being able to afford a house. Overall point people need to stop stating what way this will go this is unprecedented we have not seen it before so predictions are null and void.
fliball123 wrote: » Point 4: Pay rises in work had not been happening much throughout the last decade after the bank crash very few people in the private sector got payrises. Public sector get increments. I wonder if the PS will have to take a pay cut again .
what_traffic wrote: » All going well, it would be December 2022/23 before we are back to the economic levels we were at last December 2019.
Reversal wrote: » Point 1. I acknowledged there is societal need for 35K units a year. My point is there are not 35K people in a position to buy, not close to it. The SF surge was based on people who had lost all hope of buying. Yes they need a home, but they do not make up demand for houses to buy. And definitely won't after this recession. That is not evidence of demand to buy. It's evidence of a need for housing. Different things unfortunately, so is the inequality we see in Ireland now. The predictions on the economy and jobs are not my own. ESRI, EY, KBC and central bank are all singing off the same hymn sheet in recent days, i.e No bounce back, significant portion of jobs lost are gone for good. To many links to post but it's been all over the news. A quick Google will supply you with all the info you need. The banks have tightened lending already and will likely to do so in the future. This is well reported, again unless you've been living under a rock you surely have seen this reported? The number one evidence of bias is a subconscious tendency to ignore evidence. Seems to be getting more common in here recent days. It's like some haven't opened a newspaper in a month.
greengrass88 wrote: » As someone who wants to get on the Dublin property ladder, seeing "People with 10% deposits or close to will find themselves not being eligible for a mortgage anymore" is very worrying. Is this really very likely?
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