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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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suicide_circus

Blueshoe wrote: »

No you just don't get it. You have been told to stay in by the government. Support front line workers, the elderly and society as a whole during this period and get on with it

and we're doing that. however, people need light at the end of the tunnel, you may not suffer from such human frailty but some do.

MadYaker

Harry Palmr wrote: »

On the RTE One O'Clock News, Simon Coveney's words were cited by a reporter (not directly) as suggesting they are going to extend the current measurers. They are meeting this afternoon to consider the strategy.

Extension for a week or two I would guess.

Loafing Oaf

MadYaker wrote: »

O Theres instances of domestic murders and suicide occuring there now and there's been one or two here as well.

And of course these things never happen in 'normal' times...

Blueshoe

suicide_circus wrote: »

and we're doing that. however, people need light at the end of the tunnel, you may not suffer from such human frailty but some do.

This is the last line of defence. There are no more options. Elderly people in Madrid given a sedative and left to die as there aren't enough ventilators. The army in Italy bussing bodies to crematoriums.

Stick it out and this fate will be avoided. Leo said only a few days ago that ICU would be at capacity. Don't relent now or our problems are only beginning.

I have a friend in Paris who told me she hadn't left her apartment in 3 weeks. Gets food delivered. French police will fine people 135 euros for being out in public without authorization. Repeat offenders face prison.
Here you can exercise within 2km and can go to the shop for groceries. Stick it out

Guirimasguiri

bladespin wrote: »

In Spain you can still go to the hairdresser, Italy you can go to a bar and have a drink, work, shops, they do have a curfew system in place and non essential travel, very like here actually

Here in Spain hairdressers are closed. Initially they were allowed to stay open as they were seen as essential due to elderly incapacitated women frequenting them to get their hair washed every few days. However, the measures introduced a few days into the lockdown shut them down. We are also unable to leave our homes for anything bar going to the supermarket, pharmacy, walking dogs a couple of times a day (within 200m of your home), delivering essentials to dependents and, for the few who are still working away from home, travelling to work. The 2km afforded to all of you back home seems luxurious.

[Deleted User]

MadYaker wrote: »

Theres instances of domestic murders and suicide occuring there now and there's been one or two here as well.

the lockdown will be inflicting more damage on society than the virus.

One or two what here?

Is society & economics more important than lives? Is the lockdown killing people?

TheCitizen

rossie1977 wrote: »

There is nothing like this here. Couple of cars just passed my house while writing this post..

Where's that?

donaghs

BanditLuke wrote: »

Frankly it's pathetic to hear some of the comments. People need to grow up and hunker down for the forseeable.

Depends what the forseeable is. I think most people would prefer let the 20-50 year old workforce take the low risk of dying, if the alternative was another Great Depression.

MadYaker

bubblypop wrote: »

One or two what here?

Is society & economics more important than lives? Is the lockdown killing people?

Not yet. Its unavoidable that as the virus slows down lockdown will become more damaging than the virus. What do we do then?

salmocab

rob316 wrote: »

This madness has to end Sunday week, the economic and social impact is devastating.

It won’t

Kermit.de.frog

MadYaker wrote: »

Extension for a week or two I would guess.

Hopelessly unrealistic.

We are dealing in months, not weeks.

easypazz

Blueshoe wrote: »

It is mild though. Look at Spain, France and Italy.

It's a mild lockdown. People need to suck it up at get on with it. One week in and people are showing what they are really made of.

I was in Spain, there's not much in it.

Stricter enforcement of the present measures and its much the same.

[Deleted User]

MadYaker wrote: »

Not yet. Its unavoidable that as the virus slows down lockdown will become more damaging than the virus. What do we do then?

It's monitored everyday.
When it's time restrictions will be lifted, slowly I would imagine.
You would think this was forever!

donaghs

bubblypop wrote: »

One or two what here?

Is society & economics more important than lives? Is the lockdown killing people?

Yes, the at a certain point, economists/statisticians/doctors can debate when, the lockdown and recession etc will long-term end up killing more people. Because its more abstract and not as immediate as the virus, its harder to face this.

Padre_Pio

donaghs wrote: »

Depends what the forseeable is. I think most people would prefer let the 20-50 year old workforce take the low risk of dying, if the alternative was another Great Depression.

Death rate in UK, Spain and Italy is 10% across all demographics.

What risk level are you willing to accept to head back to work?

donaghs wrote: »

Yes, the at a certain point, economists/statisticians/doctors can debate when, the lockdown and recession etc will long-term end up killing more people. Because its more abstract and not as immediate as the virus, its harder to face this.

Statistically young men, but when near a thousand people a day are dying in Spain (which could be a hundred people a day in Ireland), no long term mental health risk will be worse than this.

Kermit.de.frog

TheCitizen wrote: »

Where's that?

I assume Milan?

Jenbach110

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Death rate in UK, Spain and Italy is 10% across all demographics.

What risk level are you willing to accept to head back to work?

Rubbish absolute rubbish here.

Death rate cant be calculated but it will be much lower than even 1%.

Enjoy the great depression

easypazz

[QUOTE=Blueshoe;113033257]No you just don't get it. You have been told to stay in by the government. Support front line workers, the elderly and society as a whole during this period and get on with it[/QUOTE]

But that's what we are all doing. There is only so many times you can go to the shop, or go for a walk, what do you think people are doing?

MadYaker

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Hopelessly unrealistic.

We are dealing in months, not weeks.

You're the same guy who kept saying the EU was a dead duck in the brexit threads right? I've noticed you posting like this in here now as well. I thought I had you on ignore to be honest.

Have a long think about the implications of months of lockdown, outside of the virus. Its not sustainable for months, society will simply cease to function and there is a point where that will become more damaging than this virus. That point isn't months away it's in the next few weeks. Especially with new cases seemingly dropping. The realistic outcome is that we'll see a gradual relaxation starting at the end of the month. You're taking too narrow a view of it.

odyssey06

bubblypop wrote: »

One or two what here?
Is society & economics more important than lives? Is the lockdown killing people?

It will if it goes on for months. There is no either or. Society economic and health are all connected... would you rather have health issues in a wealthy country with a well funded health system?

People who can't get out of their house for months are going to have physical and mental health issues accumulating.

Money surging to unemployment benefit today is inevitably going to mean less social spending in future.
Work on infrastructure projects like the National Childrens Hospital stopped.

That's not to say work shouldn't have stopped, it's that to say the longer this goes on for the balance of the health equation changes.

Padre_Pio

Jenbach110 wrote: »

Rubbish absolute rubbish here.

Death rate cant be calculated but it will be much lower than even 1%.

Enjoy the great depression

Spain total cases 110k. Total deaths 10k
Italy total cases 110k. Total deaths 13k
UK total cases 33k. Total deaths 3k

You're right in that many cases are unreported, but you'd need a million people in Spain to have coronavirus to have a 1% mortality.

Are you willing to head back to work with a 1 or even 0.1% risk of contracting a fatal virus?

easypazz

rossie1977 wrote: »

There is nothing like this here. Couple of cars just passed my house while writing this post..

That is because Ireland is a lot smaller. That's probably a major junction between different regions and even countries, and they are trying to contain it within those regions.

If Dublin continues to surge ahead then a lockdown of the M50 is possible, you are either inside it or outside it then.

Take a walk around Shannon airport and do a video and you will have similar pictures of a place deserted.

Ace2007

Jenbach110 wrote: »

Rubbish absolute rubbish here.

Death rate cant be calculated but it will be much lower than even 1%.

Enjoy the great depression

I love how you say it can't be calculated, but then the very next sentance, make an assumption that we are heading for a great depression.

In case you haven't noticed, a large % of people are still working in this country

bargainboy66

I appreciate it's really hard for everyone under lockdown, let alone the financial crisis that awaits us on the other side. But I'm not sure any decision will make everyone happy. If we undo the sanctions too early there will be a second wave and we will be back under the cosh. If we undo the sanctions too late then perhaps there will be extended economic damage, though not as much as if we undo them too early and have to go back under the lockdown. If you look at Ireland's figures compared to others in Europe we are doing pretty well. We got the virus later than most and went into lockdown measures earlier than the UK and others. That has resulted in lives being saved, and in theory it could mean we are out of this earlier than others. In my head i have said to myself it will be the end of the year before anything is near normal. It's a depressing thought by it means I'm prepared for this period to be extended significantly, and if it isn't then great news.
The government can't be accused of both protecting lives and ruining the economy. They have to make their best guess on both, and so far it looks, compared to the situation elsewhere, they've made pretty good calls.
i have two young kids (under 7), I suffer from COPD which puts me in high risk. My partner lost her job a week Monday ago because of the virus. I want my kids lives to get back to normal, I want my partner to be able to work again, but I don't really want them to lose their dad for the sake of it.

jimmyrustle

MadYaker wrote: »

. Especially with new cases seemingly dropping. .

Shortage of tests mean all numbers coming in the next few days will unfortunately be gross under reports.

Let's be honest. It took until this week for the bulk of the population to give a ****e.

Long after the schools closed, which I'd regard as the day sh1t got real, 70 percent of you reading this were still standing where you liked in supermarkets, needlessly standing close to work colleagues, still doing things in groups. I work on building sites where 3/4 of people were still sitting in overcrowded canteens until last Friday. Sheer laziness.

You know who you are. And frankly I wouldn't read too much into the decline of close contacts with new cases, half of these people will be too embarrassed to reveal the true extent of their activities over the last fortnight.

Kermit.de.frog

MadYaker wrote: »

Its not sustainable for months, society will simply cease to function and there is a point where that will become more damaging than this virus. That point isn't months away it's in the next few weeks. Especially with new cases seemingly dropping. The realistic outcome is that we'll see a gradual relaxation starting at the end of the month. You're taking too narrow a view of it.

Hope over reality in my opinion. It's the natural reaction for those who may be scared or afraid. I'm very worried as well.

But there is very little hope of this country or any other relaxing anything to any meaningful extent by the end of the month.

They could maybe tinker with the edges but the end or the middle of July is more realistic for the start of relaxing measures - this is the UK's target now, it's Italy's target as well.

And that's not for certain.

The EU has been irrelevant throughout this as well. Totally irrelevant. Every country for themselves acting in their own interests. That's what's happening.

jonnny68

tdf7187 wrote: »

The restrictions are already causing disproportionate hardship and should be relaxed if not entirely removed. Sweden has none and is doing fine. But hey it's great for the coppers and their overtime so celebrate.

well said, i think by now almost everyone is practising social distancing and is only too well aware the seriousness of the situation , if they extend it which i dont think they will it will cause untold grief to a lot of people who are already struggling badly.

donaghs

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Death rate in UK, Spain and Italy is 10% across all demographics.

But we are not talking about all demographics. All the stats I've seen show 20s and 30s have about a 0.2% chance of dying.
Probably lower as lack of widespread testing misses the asymtomatic cases.

Italy's testing wasnt great in the beginning. The UK is barely testing at all. If you put 3 symtoms into the NHS 111 online survey (as people are asked to do), you'll be told to stay at home and self-isolate - no test unless you feel your life is in danger. So I think that maybe skewing the UK "deaths to cases" stats somewhat?

Padre_Pio wrote: »

What risk level are you willing to accept to head back to work?

See above ^^^

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Statistically young men, but when near a thousand people a day are dying in Spain (which could be a hundred people a day in Ireland), no long term mental health risk will be worse than this.

Mental health is just a small part of this. The longer this goes on, the impact it will have will be worse. Some people will have to drop their health insurance, there won't as much funding for health care etc.

If it gets this bad, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression, are saying young healthy people risking coronavirus is worse?

jonnny68

MadYaker wrote: »

You're the same guy who kept saying the EU was a dead duck in the brexit threads right? I've noticed you posting like this in here now as well. I thought I had you on ignore to be honest.

Have a long think about the implications of months of lockdown, outside of the virus. Its not sustainable for months, society will simply cease to function and there is a point where that will become more damaging than this virus. That point isn't months away it's in the next few weeks. Especially with new cases seemingly dropping. The realistic outcome is that we'll see a gradual relaxation starting at the end of the month. You're taking too narrow a view of it.

well said, an honest and frank assessment right here.

bladespin

rossie1977 wrote: »

There is nothing like this here. Couple of cars just passed my house while writing this post..

M50 during 'rush hour' last Tuesday:

- 5.50pm (don't mind the time in frame, cam wasn't set)

All you need is a tumbleweed