Pete_Cavan wrote: » What is this big win you are expecting? The virus isn't just going to pack up and go home! You are right that the virus will be around for the long term, that is why we can't leave everyone sitting at home for an undefined period of time. Effective drug treatments (that ease symptoms facilitating recovery, rather than an outright cure), increased hospital capacity and the slow move towards herd immunity will all play a part in allowing for reduced restrictions. There is no big win, just an ongoing slow improvement due to various factors. The mental health effects, economic devastation, growing public disenchantment and reduced compliance over time all mean that keeping the vast majority of the population locked up at home is not an effective long term strategy. Yes it is the best strategy for now, short term, before people start countering with the usual "you just don't get it" nonsense and tackle an argument that is not being made.
BanditLuke wrote: » You need to let it go. We are in this for the long term. Time to get onboard for the big win
kieran. wrote: » Have you been modelling the numbers? Or how are you backing this statement up? If the peak is around the 10/14th and they phase out the restrictions similiar to the way introduced them would expect to be back to work on the 4th May but implementing social distancing / cough and hand-wash etiquette. I would expect us to be into total cases growth figures of less than 100% some time in the last week in April.
bladespin wrote: » M50 during 'rush hour' last Tuesday: - 5.50pm (don't mind the time in frame, cam wasn't set) All you need is a tumbleweed
Padre_Pio wrote: » I agree with all your points in principle, but not in practice. Are you confident the fatality % you're quoting are correct? While mine are definitely worst case, your may be best case, with the real figure somewhere in between. Testing is definitely underreported, but deaths are also rumoured to be underreported to quell panic. On your second point, are you happy to send people under 50 back to work, knowing there's a high chance of getting coronavirus and a small chance of dying? Are you happy to tell these people they can't see their parents or others in at-risk groups for months or years? Are you happy that many under 50's may have undiagnosed issues that put them in at-risk groups and they may die? These are all tricky questions and one the government has to grapple with. There's a balance of economic and social cost vs the in your face reality of large number of daily deaths. The answer is in there somewhere, but you'd need to be a cold hearted b*stard to find it.
rob316 wrote: » This madness has to end Sunday week, the economic and social impact is devastating.
MadYaker wrote: » The UK are completely fcuked thanks to their clowns in government. Boris "I shake hands with coronavirus patients" Johnson so there's no point comparing us to them as we have done a much better job, hence new case numbers here dropping and deaths spiralling out of control in the UK, chalk and cheese. It aint hope over reality. Soon all the thousands of patients awaiting major surgery who were dumped out of hospital are going to start having serious problems and will die if they don't get surgeries and other treatment. This is just one of a plethora of issues that this lockdown will start to throw up in the coming weeks. Some loosening is inevitable at the end of the month.
Padre_Pio wrote: » Spain total cases 110k. Total deaths 10k Italy total cases 110k. Total deaths 13k UK total cases 33k. Total deaths 3k You're right in that many cases are unreported, but you'd need a million people in Spain to have coronavirus to have a 1% mortality. Are you willing to head back to work with a 1 or even 0.1% risk of contracting a fatal virus?
Kermit.de.frog wrote: » Hope over reality in my opinion. It's the natural reaction for those who may be scared or afraid. I'm very worried as well. But there is very little hope of this country or any other relaxing anything to any meaningful extent by the end of the month. They could maybe tinker with the edges but the end or the middle of July is more realistic for the start of relaxing measures - this is the UK's target now, it's Italy's target as well. And that's not for certain. The EU has been irrelevant throughout this as well. Totally irrelevant. Every country for themselves acting in their own interests. That's what's happening.
donaghs wrote: » But we are not talking about all demographics. All the stats I've seen show 20s and 30s have about a 0.2% chance of dying. Probably lower as lack of widespread testing misses the asymtomatic cases.
rossie1977 wrote: » There is nothing like this here. Couple of cars just passed my house while writing this post..
MadYaker wrote: » You're the same guy who kept saying the EU was a dead duck in the brexit threads right? I've noticed you posting like this in here now as well. I thought I had you on ignore to be honest. Have a long think about the implications of months of lockdown, outside of the virus. Its not sustainable for months, society will simply cease to function and there is a point where that will become more damaging than this virus. That point isn't months away it's in the next few weeks. Especially with new cases seemingly dropping. The realistic outcome is that we'll see a gradual relaxation starting at the end of the month. You're taking too narrow a view of it.
Padre_Pio wrote: » Death rate in UK, Spain and Italy is 10% across all demographics.
Padre_Pio wrote: » What risk level are you willing to accept to head back to work?
Padre_Pio wrote: » Statistically young men, but when near a thousand people a day are dying in Spain (which could be a hundred people a day in Ireland), no long term mental health risk will be worse than this.
tdf7187 wrote: » The restrictions are already causing disproportionate hardship and should be relaxed if not entirely removed. Sweden has none and is doing fine. But hey it's great for the coppers and their overtime so celebrate.
MadYaker wrote: » Its not sustainable for months, society will simply cease to function and there is a point where that will become more damaging than this virus. That point isn't months away it's in the next few weeks. Especially with new cases seemingly dropping. The realistic outcome is that we'll see a gradual relaxation starting at the end of the month. You're taking too narrow a view of it.
MadYaker wrote: » . Especially with new cases seemingly dropping. .
Jenbach110 wrote: » Rubbish absolute rubbish here. Death rate cant be calculated but it will be much lower than even 1%. Enjoy the great depression
bubblypop wrote: » One or two what here? Is society & economics more important than lives? Is the lockdown killing people?
Kermit.de.frog wrote: » Hopelessly unrealistic. We are dealing in months, not weeks.
Padre_Pio wrote: » Death rate in UK, Spain and Italy is 10% across all demographics. What risk level are you willing to accept to head back to work?
TheCitizen wrote: » Where's that?
