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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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Beasty

Interesting commentary from Spain this morning where they seem to be suggesting allowing more "freedom" based on age - allowing the younger generation a bit more flexibility, and gradually increasing the age, presumably in something like 10 year bands.

Hope if we do anything like that it's not dragging on to October:eek:

Alas there does seem some sense in such an approach

Red Alert

Precisely because at the moment both of us want to continue working: I work in IT and Education, she works in the art/crafts sector, needs heavy machinery and a large materials stock and has no broadband. Depending on how things go over the next couple of weeks we might.

KiKi III

Red Alert wrote: »

The government are going to have to articulate a roadmap I think of where we go from here, time-wise, and share it with the public. The suspense and inability to make basic plans will unsettle people, will lead to discontent and could ultimately lead some to ignore the restrictions. This is an entirely human reaction, and one which is somewhat separate from the life-or-death issue at hand here, a point that seems lost on many who virtue-signal.

For example my girlfriend and I live separately 2km away from each other. Both of live alone, and work (partially, even in normal circumstances) from home, and each of us has a lot of equipment connected with our work. As it stands now, we can't see each other other than a wave over the fence when I'm out walking. I do the shopping for both of us and drop it in to her: neither of us have any other contact at the moment. So in ways we are one household over two houses.

Personally I'd like to see a return to the restrictions we had: schools/colleges shut, mass gatherings banned, and a limit on private gatherings to 2 (yes more strict than the previous 4) people. Over 70's and other at-risk groups to remain cocooned.

Why don’t you do a two-week shop and move in together? Assuming you see no one else for that period you wouldn’t be putting anyone at risk?

Of course you want to see a roadmap, everyone does - but the government has no crystal ball. They can’t tell you when they will lift measures until they see how effective they have been to date.

RobbingBandit

The spike is estimated to be the week after Easter weekend I can't see them relaxing things until cases are lowering this is definitely gonna be a long haul

Blueshoe

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Except we don't all live in one global country...

A+

easypazz

oceanman wrote: »

because some people out there think it will be over in a few weeks:rolleyes:
lets wait and see will that be the case.

Maybe they are right?

I can't see why, by the end of this month, if cases and deaths stabilise, with increased testing, that we can't relax restrictions to allow hardware shops to open and people allowed exercise more than 2kM.

What is your counterargument to retaining the current level of restrictions if numbers don't explode from here.

Red Alert

The government are going to have to articulate a roadmap I think of where we go from here, time-wise, and share it with the public. The suspense and inability to make basic plans will unsettle people, will lead to discontent and could ultimately lead some to ignore the restrictions. This is an entirely human reaction, and one which is somewhat separate from the life-or-death issue at hand here, a point that seems lost on many who virtue-signal.

For example my girlfriend and I live separately 2km away from each other. Both of live alone, and work (partially, even in normal circumstances) from home, and each of us has a lot of equipment connected with our work. As it stands now, we can't see each other other than a wave over the fence when I'm out walking. I do the shopping for both of us and drop it in to her: neither of us have any other contact at the moment. So in ways we are one household over two houses.

Personally I'd like to see a return to the restrictions we had: schools/colleges shut, mass gatherings banned, and a limit on private gatherings to 2 (yes more strict than the previous 4) people. Over 70's and other at-risk groups to remain cocooned.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Blueshoe wrote: »

Global cases will pass 1 million today.
There were half a million on march 25.

Doubled in a week. Restrictions going nowhere.
No county will risk it.
China being the exception of course.

Except we don't all live in one global country...

timmy_mallet

TheCitizen wrote: »

Do you think the lockdown isn't pragmatic? As others have said we aren't even in a lockdown like what they've had in Italy or Spain

I think the continued lockdown isnt pragmatic.

growleaves

'Shoot them dead': Duterte warns against violating lockdown

"Do not intimidate the government. Do not challenge the government. You will lose," he added in Filipino and English.

Duterte's warning came after residents of a slum in Manila's Quezon City staged a protest along a highway near their shanty houses, claiming they had not received any food packs and other relief supplies since the lockdown began more than two weeks ago.

Village security officers and police urged the residents to go back to their homes, but they refused, a police report said.

Police broke up the protest and arrested 20 people, the report added.

[Deleted User]

BanditLuke wrote: »

I think it's the generation we live in. People are more than prepared to put up facebook memes and virtue signal about "staying home for Ireland" etc..but as soon as the novelty wears off they will show their true colours. I've even read people talking about stuff like "can i book a sun holiday in June" ffs .Imagine these people in a real lockdown or war time scenerio :rolleyes:

Have to laugh at posters on boards thinking their generation is any different or superior. Quite pathetic really.

Blueshoe

Global cases will pass 1 million today.
There were half a million on march 25.

Doubled in a week. Restrictions going nowhere.
No county will risk it.
China being the exception of course.

oceanman

easypazz wrote: »

So if you don't know why are you saying it will last a lot longer than people think?

because some people out there think it will be over in a few weeks:rolleyes:
lets wait and see will that be the case.

TheCitizen

timmy_mallet wrote: »

They've been self isolating for years already anyway.

Its round and round and round. They love the lockdown, others are pragmatic, it's up to Leo now.

Do you think the lockdown isn't pragmatic? As others have said we aren't even in a lockdown like what they've had in Italy or Spain

timmy_mallet

facehugger99 wrote: »

Ironically, it's the lads who think the current restrictions are sustainable for months, that have their heads buried somewhere.

They've been self isolating for years already anyway.

Its round and round and round. They love the lockdown, others are pragmatic, it's up to Leo now.

iguana

It was reported recently that Germany is considering issuing immunity certificates once reliable antibody testing is rolled out. People with antibodies will have restrictions lifted before other people and have to carry their immunity card around with them. While this makes obvious sense, I could see it also leading to a situation where people deliberately infect themselves. When reliable antibody testing becomes available I strongly suspect we are going to start hearing of more and more people who had a weird but relatively mild illness in February/March/April and are now immune. If you are stuck at home, frustrated, bored and worried about your job/money while several people you know are getting back to normal after never really being sick, the temptation to get infected and get back to normal asap would be enormous. And while that would probably work out for a lot of people, it could lead very quickly to a second wave of severe cases that overwhelms the health system again.

I think that if we discover a reasonable cohort of immune people in the next few weeks/months an immunity card offering extra responsibilities could make more sense than one offering more freedoms. People with immunity could take on work supporting people who are 'cocooning' for example. They could work in care homes or in hospital support roles if needed, without presenting the same risk to residents/patients. It would make use of the section of the population with immunity without stoking an envy that could lead people to make dangerous choices.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-germany-covid-19-immunity-certificates-testing-social-distancing-lockdown-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

Pete_Cavan

Sweet.Science wrote: »

It seemed to be a 12 week plan they had from the start. So they are hoping June . Who knows if that will happen. Positive early signs though

But not 12 weeks of the current restrictions. 2 weeks of previous restrictions, 3/4 of the current and then back to another 6/7 weeks of previous would seem about right to me.

easypazz

oceanman wrote: »

I don't know...and neither do you, and neither dose anybody else at this stage. I very much doubt it will be over in a few weeks though...that would be living in la la land.

So if you don't know why are you saying it will last a lot longer than people think?

growleaves

https://www.ft.com/content/eb81dc96-c2bd-4c1c-ac8a-bf88653b0b8d

“We don’t have any more money!” a man screamed at police stationed outside a closed bank in the southern city of Bari in a video posted online on Friday. According to regional media, he was unable to access his state benefit payments.

“You should come to my house and see my kitchen, it's completely empty,” his partner shouted. “You are disgusting! The state is disgusting!”

In another video, posted online by the Italian daily Corriere della Sera, a man in Naples arrives at a supermarket checkout unable to pay. “This man has no money to pay for his food, he can't eat, he didn't buy wine or champagne, he bought pasta and bread,” an observer argued with the staff.

Tensions have been most evident in Italy’s poorer south. Over the weekend armed police were deployed to supermarkets in Palermo, Sicily, over fears that some customers would not pay for food. Leoluca Orlando, the city’s mayor, warned in an interview with newspaper La Stampa that anger in the city risked spilling over into violence.

Sweet.Science

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

People aren't complaining after only a week, many are saying it can't go on for months as some seem to think. People are looking to what comes next, not looking back on the last week.

Claims that the current restrictions will last until July are nonsense, at that stage there will be no economy to reopen and there will be plenty of social problems too. The virus isn't going to disappear, we need a functioning economy to be able to fight it in the next few months, the government can't pay half the workforce to sit at home for several months.

It seemed to be a 12 week plan they had from the start. So they are hoping June . Who knows if that will happen. Positive early signs though

growleaves

It cant last forever and it wont last forever but Christ, its been what, a week?

But loads of us have been sat in for 3 weeks now.

oceanman

easypazz wrote: »

I've asked you already, how long do you think restrictions will last

I don't know...and neither do you, and neither dose anybody else at this stage. I very much doubt it will be over in a few weeks though...that would be living in la la land.

Blueshoe

TheCitizen wrote: »

Any evidence of this in bold above?

https://www-bloomberg-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-30/italy-risks-losing-grip-in-south-with-fears-of-looting-and-riots?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15858189861330&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2020-03-30%2Fitaly-risks-losing-grip-in-south-with-fears-of-looting-and-riots

Pete_Cavan

oceanman wrote: »

very true..i don't see why some people are complaining after only a week for god sake. most of us are lucky enough to have a roof over our heads, food in the fridge, a tv to watch, mobile phone ect. what more do you need? I know its hard to not be able to socialise with friends and relatives but its not the end of the world. get used to it...it will last a lot longer than some people think.

People aren't complaining after only a week, many are saying it can't go on for months as some seem to think. People are looking to what comes next, not looking back on the last week.

Claims that the current restrictions will last until July are nonsense, at that stage there will be no economy to reopen and there will be plenty of social problems too. The virus isn't going to disappear, we need a functioning economy to be able to fight it in the next few months, the government can't pay half the workforce to sit at home for several months.

TheCitizen

Red Alert wrote: »

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

Any evidence of this in bold above?

easypazz

gilly1910 wrote: »

I disagree that it's been only a week as the initial lockdown commenced on Sunday the 15th of March , so this is in effect our third week although the more restrictive elements of the lockdown only came into effect last Friday. So either way life has changed massively for most people, hundreds of thousands are now unemployed, some businesses may never reopen after this, not to mention the effect this will have on the state of mind of many people, so no we will never get used to this. So while all of this is absolutely necessary, it is still a horrible time, and the sooner it ends the better for all of us.

Don't expect any more contributions from "oceanman" he has run to the hills.

He scoffs at everybody else's predictions but is unable to share his timelines with us.

Blueshoe

gilly1910 wrote: »

I disagree that it's been only a week as the initial lockdown commenced on Sunday the 15th of March , so this is in effect our third week although the more restrictive elements of the lockdown only came into effect last Friday. So either way life has changed massively for most people, hundreds of thousands are now unemployed, some businesses may never reopen after this, not to mention the effect this will have on the state of mind of many people, so no we will never get used to this. So while all of this is absolutely necessary, it is still a horrible time, and the sooner it ends the better for all of us.

This isn't a lockdown. Check out Italy, Spain or France if you want to know what lockdown restrictions are.
Be thankful that this is all that's being asked of us during a global pandemic

BanditLuke

DeVore wrote: »

But we havent reached that level here. This isnt a "lock down", you can walk within 2km of your house for exercise. You can shop for necessaries.

Its hardly goons with guns patrolling the streets demanding papiern!

It cant last forever and it wont last forever but Christ, its been what, a week?

I think it's the generation we live in. People are more than prepared to put up facebook memes and virtue signal about "staying home for Ireland" etc..but as soon as the novelty wears off they will show their true colours. I've even read people talking about stuff like "can i book a sun holiday in June" ffs .Imagine these people in a real lockdown or war time scenerio :rolleyes:

gilly1910

oceanman wrote: »

very true..i don't see why some people are complaining after only a week for god sake. most of us are lucky enough to have a roof over our heads, food in the fridge, a tv to watch, mobile phone ect. what more do you need? I know its hard to not be able to socialise with friends and relatives but its not the end of the world. get used to it...it will last a lot longer than some people think.

I disagree that it's been only a week as the initial lockdown commenced on Sunday the 15th of March , so this is in effect our third week although the more restrictive elements of the lockdown only came into effect last Friday. So either way life has changed massively for most people, hundreds of thousands are now unemployed, some businesses may never reopen after this, not to mention the effect this will have on the state of mind of many people, so no we will never get used to this. So while all of this is absolutely necessary, it is still a horrible time, and the sooner it ends the better for all of us.

easypazz

oceanman wrote: »

....it will last a lot longer than some people think.

oceanman wrote: »

that's one hell of a crystal ball you have there....

Pot, kettle, black.