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Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

This is the twelfth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread.

I appreciate that the end of Brexit is or may be in sight (insofar as one can be certain) but please bear the following in mind before posting:

Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary
Discussion of Sinn Féin's longstanding policy of abstention from Westminster is not suitable for this thread. Posts on this subject may be deleted

Previous thread is here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058016732

United Ireland thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058014553

Scottish Independence thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058023269

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Comments

First Up

Professor Moriarty wrote:

Wonderful mood music so far. All good friends and jolly good company. However, it's important to remember that, as these negotiations evolve, a fundamental existential imperative for the EU is that Britain cannot be better off outside the EU.

The EU will withdraw all the benefits of EU membership from the UK. It will also ensure that nothing agreed with the UK will disadvantage any member state in competing with the UK, either within the EU or elsewhere.

How the UK copes after that is its own business.

First Up

ThePanjandrum wrote:

Also, at the time the United Kingdom joined the EU it was the sixth largest economy in the world, it is now the fifth. So much for your thesis.

Which thesis would that be? You have shown that the UK's situation improved since joining the EU. What point are you trying to make?

FrancieBrady

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

A little article for you to read, please note the source https://www.socialeurope.eu/eu-membership-accelerate-uk-economic-growth.

Also, at the time the United Kingdom joined the EU it was the sixth largest economy in the world, it is now the fifth. So much for your thesis.

I remember that, even joining the EEC couldn't save them from decades of financial decline and they eventually went bust in 1976. It was such a shock to see the '6th largest economy go cap in hand to the IMF.

Lucky they had the support of the EEC to recover.

SantaCruz

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

A little article for you to read, please note the source https://www.socialeurope.eu/eu-membership-accelerate-uk-economic-growth.
Note the source??Ah yes, Graham Gudgin and the far left (Social Europe!) are reknowned for their economic acumen - I'm sure we have both noticed the many historical examples of booming communist economies.

Also, at the time the United Kingdom joined the EU it was the sixth largest economy in the world, it is now the fifth. So much for your thesis.

Sixth largest at a time before the explosive growth of the devloping world, recently bailed out by the IMF, seemingly in terminal decline, with its industrial base completely rotten.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_IMF_crisis

Note the source.

So much for your refutation.

Spanish Eyes

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Wonderful mood music so far. All good friends and jolly good company. However, it's important to remember that, as these negotiations evolve, a fundamental existential imperative for the EU is that Britain cannot be better off outside the EU.

Agree. And 1 July is the date UK has to decide to ask for yet ANOTHER extension or go it alone with no deal and WTO. That's five months away, a blink of an eye really.

declanflynn

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

A little article for you to read, please note the source https://www.socialeurope.eu/eu-membership-accelerate-uk-economic-growth.

Also, at the time the United Kingdom joined the EU it was the sixth largest economy in the world, it is now the fifth. So much for your thesis.

Will Boris stat talks on Feb 1st on a trade deal with China

Infini

robinph wrote: »

Well we get Duty Free back again.

The benefits list is getting really long now:
New 50p
Blue passports
Duty Free

Dont forget what else could be added down the line

Farage and friends sacked as of tomorrow night (Good Riddance to those tools)
Possible Scottish Independence,
Irish Reunification,
All that business the UK used to get coming our way instead.

Strazdas wrote: »

Sir Ivan Rogers has given an interview this afternoon (before Barnier's intervention) - he predicts Johnson will be loud and belligerent this year, things to kick off by this summer with a real risk of No Deal by autumn.

https://twitter.com/PeterClemons11/status/1222882130008645633

If he gets belligerent then the EU should simply be prepared to announce defensive measures and be prepared to contain the damage including rolling measures implimented on the most critical areas as needed. They cannot interfere with EU policy after tomorrow anyways they'll quickly find out how much power they truly have then.

[Deleted User]

In 24 hours time, the UK will be out!
Only time will tell whether it was the right decision or not.
But success or failure will depend entirely on the skills of the negotiators on both sides.

robinph

Infini wrote: »

Dont forget what else could be added down the line

Farage and friends sacked as of tomorrow night (Good Riddance to those tools)
Possible Scottish Independence,
Irish Reunification,
All that business the UK used to get coming our way instead.

Other than Farage potentially not being heard from again, which is highly unlikely to happen, the other points aren't necessarily good for the UK.

robinph

[Deleted User] wrote: »

In 24 hours time, the UK will be out!
Only time will tell whether it was the right decision or not.
But success or failure will depend entirely on the skills of the negotiators on both sides.

Think that the best hope for the UK is the EU negotiators not letting the UK do too many more idiotic things to themselves. Can't see the UK negotiators doing anything of benefit to the UK.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

In 24 hours time, the UK will be out!
Only time will tell whether it was the right decision or not.
But success or failure will depend entirely on the skills of the negotiators on both sides.

Leave voters and the right wing press own everything that happens as of 11.01pm tomorrow night....no more scapegoats or fall guys. They have stepped forward onto the stage with all the spotlights on them.

Spanish Eyes

Strazdas wrote: »

Leave voters and the right wing press own everything that happens as of 11.01pm tomorrow night....no more scapegoats or fall guys. They have stepped forward onto the stage with all the spotlights on them.

As of tomorrow night, correct. Will be a bit of triumphalism in the mix of course. For many that kind of thing is not welcome. Leave but don't throw raspberries on your way out kind of thing.

But if things do not go according to plan the blame will be on the EU ie "the intransigent bsdards", it is obvious.

Strazdas

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

As of tomorrow night, correct. Will be a bit of triumphalism in the mix of course. For many that kind of thing is not welcome. Leave but don't throw raspberries on your way out kind of thing.

But if things do not go according to plan the blame will be on the EU ie "the intransigent bsdards", it is obvious.

Will it wash though? They've made a huge song and dance about being 'sovereign and independent' and taking back control since the day after the referendum. How can a sovereign and free country claim the reason things are going pear shaped is because of foreigners?

SantaCruz

Strazdas wrote: »

Will it wash though? They've made a huge song and dance about being 'sovereign and independent' and taking back control since the day after the referendum. How can a sovereign and free country claim the reason things are going pear shaped is because of foreigners?

The same people who persuaded them to jump off the cliff will have no problem getting them to blame the ground they hit.

Thargor

Oh my God, who could have forseen this?

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/sajid-javid-abandons-pre-election-pledge-to-end-austerity-after-just-4-months/30/01/

Strazdas

SantaCruz wrote: »

The same people who persuaded them to jump off the cliff will have no problem getting them to blame the ground they hit.

It sounds great on paper but they're the ones who said the UK doesn't need the EU and the union is holding GB back (whilst a member). Admitting the EU has the power to unleash a load of grief on the UK seems rather risky......Britain is supposed to be a superpower who doesn't need to be in an economic alliance with anyone to thrive.

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

RTE reporting that a leaked memo from Chancellor of the Exchequer, Javid, instructing ministers to prepare to cut their budgets by 5%. Is this the Brexit dividend?

They are throwing £100Bn * into HS2. So any dividend will be spaffed up the wall as it will cost about three times the original price.

*Based solely on every other similar project being late and over budget and recurring cost increases.

UK automotive industry contributes £20.2 directly to UK coffers so figure the same again in indirect revenue. It's hard to see that going up.

AngryHippie

Strazdas wrote: »

the EU has the power to unleash a load of grief on the UK

That is not in the EU's interest, I think they will still have their place as valuable neighbor with many similar aspirations and vital trade, logistical and economic links.

That the current bunch of dunderheads in charge of the UK have completely overestimated this value as a bargaining tool is obvious.
That the fallout from leaving will result in deliberate punitive measures in unlikely.

The EU really doesn't have to make the situation worse to ensure that within 18 months, all the promises will be proven to be lies and Boris and Co will be running for cover while the opposition get their act together and pull together a landslide of desperate majority battling the poverty line. There is no rising tide, there is no upside. No matter how it plays, the vast majority of the population will be worse off. Not even their feral nationalism will keep a vote when they have neither a pot to piss in nor a window to throw it out.

Every democracy is 3 meals from a revolution. Boris like his ancestors has ignored this reality and will pay the price at some point. The likelihood of it involving the removal of his head at the neck being quite low is a good indicator of how far Western Europe has come in 230 short years.

Spanish Eyes

Strazdas wrote: »

Will it wash though? They've made a huge song and dance about being 'sovereign and independent' and taking back control since the day after the referendum. How can a sovereign and free country claim the reason things are going pear shaped is because of foreigners?

Because they will always have the red tops and the MAIL behind them as they did to get to this pass and will still blame any potential failure on everyone else.

It is not over yet.

Capt'n Midnight

Can't remember where I saw it,

S0meone was saying that the deal the EU will offer would be only what the EU itself can offer, not the things that need to be ratified by the 37 different national and regional parliaments. Because there's no way that could happen this year.

So bare bones free trade and nothing for services.

And the EU exports a lot more stuff to the UK than it imports.

Igotadose

Interesting article, one of I'm sure a slew of upcoming ones in the Indo: UK expats, who were local politicians in France and elsewhere, and sometimes very long term residents, are getting booted from office as of tomorrow and losing the right to vote in elections: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-british-expats-voting-rights-france-germany-european-union-a9309916.html

Nice comment: "So the municipal voting right was perhaps too much democratic representation for UK to handle."

Tacitus Kilgore

Just read this article, - what will change after brexit

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-51194363

It's not particularly truthful is it?

It reads as if this is Brexit, and here are the things that won't change - but it's all about the transition period? It's a "business as usual" message, but only applies until the end of the year?

I can't help but hope that they are setting up for some very soft changes post transition period?? Or is it just blatant disregard for hard truths/unknowns?

LeinsterDub

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Just read this article, - what will change after brexit

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-51194363

It's not particularly truthful is it?

It reads as if this is Brexit, and here are the things that won't change - but it's all about the transition period? It's a "business as usual" message, but only applies until the end of the year?

I can't help but hope that they are setting up for some very soft changes post transition period?? Or is it just blatant disregard for hard truths/unknowns?

It is brexit. By this time tomorrow Britain will have exited the EU. Now what happens after trend (transition end) is a different matter

Tacitus Kilgore

LeinsterDub wrote: »

It is brexit. By this time tomorrow Britain will have exited the EU. Now what happens after trend (transition end) is a different matter

It's Brexit by name yes, but tomorrow is effectively no different to today in terms of travel, commerce, fishing, rights etc.

I just know we are nowhere near to unfollowing this thread, we may even make it to - Brexit discussion thread XX - long before it dies off.. :pac:

LeinsterDub

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

It's Brexit by name yes, but tomorrow is effectively no different to today in terms of travel, commerce, fishing, rights etc.

I just know we are nowhere near to unfollowing this thread, we may even make it to - Brexit discussion thread XX - long before it dies off.. :pac:

So the BBC article was in fact correct so.

Tacitus Kilgore

LeinsterDub wrote: »

So the BBC article was in fact correct so.

I may not have articulated my point correctly, but surely you know what I mean?

They state that driving licences, pet passports, EHIC cards etc remain unchanged after Brexit, but with no mention at all what will happen post-transition period - which is when the actual effects of Brexit kick in.

LeinsterDub

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

I may not have articulated my point correctly, but surely you know what I mean?

They state that driving licences, pet passports, EHIC cards etc remain unchanged after Brexit, but with no mention at all what will happen post-transition period - which is when the actual effects of Brexit kick in.

The UK formally leaves the European Union (EU) at 23:00 on Friday, 31 January. But it will immediately enter an 11-month transition period.

During the transition the UK will continue to obey EU rules and pay money to the EU. Most things will stay the same but there will be some changes

Literally the opening two paragraphs. No one knows what happens after the transition

gooch2k9

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

I may not have articulated my point correctly, but surely you know what I mean?

They state that driving licences, pet passports, EHIC cards etc remain unchanged after Brexit, but with no mention at all what will happen post-transition period - which is when the actual effects of Brexit kick in.

They have several other articles regarding post-transition Brexit such as https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50838994.

The "seven things" article read more like a fluff piece to me rather than serious journalism.

Tacitus Kilgore

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Literally the opening two paragraphs. No one knows what happens after the transition

gooch2k9 wrote: »

They have several other articles regarding post-transition Brexit such as https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50838994.

The "seven things" article read more like a fluff piece to me rather than serious journalism.

I'm clearly not awake enough this morning to be posting here. Apologies.

robinph

Even for coin collectors £995 has to count as an excessive price for a 50p?

BBC News wrote:

The 50p coin to commemoarate Brexit has had a rocky history thanks to missed deadlines.

But now it has a final date, it is proving very popular.

You may see a silver one pop up in your change, but the Royal Mint also put 1,500 special edition gold coins on sale on Friday - costing £995 each.

However, according to the website, they have already sold out.

The coin is embossed with the date and the words: "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations."