What will happen to sinn fein after this election.

If FG continue to struggle in the polls, I wonder will Varadkar resort to SF-under-the-bed scaremongering? SF's apparent surge in the polls could ironically be a help to him here. If it looks like the same situation will pertain after this election as the last one, i.e. a government can only be formed by two out of three from FF, FG and SF, he can be justified in at least raising the question of whether FF can be trusted not to do a deal with SF.

blanch152

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

If FG continue to struggle in the polls, I wonder will Varadkar resort to SF-under-the-bed scaremongering? SF's apparent surge in the polls could ironically be a help to him here. If it looks like the same situation will pertain after this election as the last one, i.e. a government can only be formed by two out of three from FF, FG and SF, he can be justified in at least raising the question of whether FF can be trusted not to do a deal with SF.

You can still get FF/SF coalition at 12/1 on Paddy Power.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

If FG continue to struggle in the polls, I wonder will Varadkar resort to SF-under-the-bed scaremongering? SF's apparent surge in the polls could ironically be a help to him here. If it looks like the same situation will pertain after this election as the last one, i.e. a government can only be formed by two out of three from FF, FG and SF, he can be justified in at least raising the question of whether FF can be trusted not to do a deal with SF.

They have no control over what SF do and don't much care as far as I can see. FF is the real enemy to FG this time out.

FrancieBrady

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

If FG continue to struggle in the polls, I wonder will Varadkar resort to SF-under-the-bed scaremongering? SF's apparent surge in the polls could ironically be a help to him here. If it looks like the same situation will pertain after this election as the last one, i.e. a government can only be formed by two out of three from FF, FG and SF, he can be justified in at least raising the question of whether FF can be trusted not to do a deal with SF.

FF, FG will go into power with whomsoever it takes.

blanch152 wrote: »

You can still get FF/SF coalition at 12/1 on Paddy Power.

What odds do they have on SF going into opposition?

is_that_so wrote: »

They have no control over what SF do and don't much care as far as I can see. FF is the real enemy to FG this time out.

I'm not talking about the reality of what will happen after the election, I'm talking about FG raising the spectre of a FF/SF deal to frighten the middle classes back into FG's embrace. I'm sure the FG's war room is at least considering how to do it without coming across as desperate...

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FF, FG will go into power with whomsoever it takes.

I don't think it is as simple as that.

Either party would require a new leader in order to go into coalition with SF.

blanch152 wrote: »

I don't think it is as simple as that.

Either party would require a new leader in order to go into coalition with SF.

Yes FF might have tried to form a government with FF and other left parties after the last election but Martin evidently didn't give it any consideration...

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I'm not talking about the reality of what will happen after the election, I'm talking about FG raising the spectre of a FF/SF deal to frighten the middle classes back into FG's embrace. I'm sure the FG's war room is at least considering how to do it without coming across as desperate...

FF don't seem to be looking at SF anyway. The more sensible target is the Green/Lab/SD block and the less half-witted Indos. What FG have done and I reckon will continue to do, is say - remember 2009! It is true and a tad petty but they may see it as generating votes.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I don't think it is as simple as that.

Either party would require a new leader in order to go into coalition with SF.

If it is Martin's only chance to be Taoiseach, he'll find a way to hold his nose. I can hear his 'in the interests of the country' speech already.

is_that_so wrote: »

FF don't seem to be looking at SF anyway. The more sensible target is the Green/Lab/SD block and the less half-witted Indos.

Nobody doubts that. The question is what happens if the numbers dictate it has to be two out of three from FF, FG and SF again. Varadkar has already said he would be prepared to support a minority FF government but Martin has given no such commitment...

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Yes FF might have tried to form a government with FF and other left parties after the last election but Martin evidently didn't give it any consideration...

what there are two Fianna Fail parties.
Oh no's, the country is destroyed i tell you.

Bottom line is all this pre-election debate about who will jump into bed with who is a load of nonsense.

FF might prefer LAB or the Greens but when push comes to shove and the numbers dont stack they will definitely consider a SF coalition.

Would FG do the same, they might not, but I guarantee you that they certainly would give it serious consideration despite what they might be telling the electorate.

The reality is unless Labour get a significant bounce, and personally I cant see that happening, the number of seats held by the smaller parties will be so diluted that whether you like it or not SF might end up the king makers in this election. It will probably be a choice for FG or FF of including SF in government or accepting that they will be in opposition.. or more of the same a FG.FF or FF/FG coalition and lets not pretend that the current situation is anything but that.

If FF increase their number of seats, but come far short of a majority, they will have to rely on the next biggest party other than FG to if they wish to form a government. Likewise if FG do not increase their number of seats dramatically, and personally I cant see that happening, they will also have the same dilemma.

As it stand I think we will still have a FF/FG or FG/FF government, despite FF claiming that the confidence and supply simply is not working. Will it be FF or FG in the driving seat, I think that's still wide open and all it will take is a bit of incompetence or a stupid remark (both parties being equally qualified at incompetence), to change that.

What ever happens I can only see SF's standing growing whether they gain more seats or not. They only have to remain the 3rd biggest party for that to be the case.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Nobody doubts that. The question is what happens if the numbers dictate it has to be two out of three from FF, FG and SF again. Varadkar has already said he would be prepared to support a minority FF government but Martin has given no such commitment...

My current thinking is FF +assorted, FG supply deal, SF opposition. The only thing that might change there is the main government party.

blanch152

efanton wrote: »

what there are two Fianna Fail parties.
Oh no's, the country is destroyed i tell you.

Bottom line is all this pre-election debate about who will jump into bed with who is a load of nonsense.

FF might prefer LAB or the Greens but when push comes to shove and the numbers dont stack they will definitely consider a SF coalition.

Would FG do the same, they might not, but I guarantee you that they certainly would give it serious consideration despite what they might be telling the electorate.

The reality is unless Labour get a significant bounce, and personally I cant see that happening, the number of seats held by the smaller parties will be so diluted that whether you like it or not SF might end up the king makers in this election. It will probably be a choice for FG or FF of including SF in government or accepting that they will be in opposition.

If FF increase their number of seats, but come far short of a majority, they will have to rely on the next biggest party other than FG to if they wish to form a government. Likewise if FG do not increase their number of seats dramatically, and personally I cant see that happening, they will also have the same dilemma.

As it stand I think we will still have a FF/FG or FG/FF government, despite FF claiming that the confidence and supply simply is not working. Will it be FF or FG in the driving seat, I think that's still wide open and all it will take is a bit of incompetence or a stupid remark (both parties being equally qualified at incompetence), to change that.

If Fine Gael lose seats, and become the second or third biggest party, that will be the second election in a row that they will have lost seats. From a tactical point of view, they will argue that the electorate don't want them involved in government and/or a confidence and supply arrangement. That would leave FF having to form a government from the rest or with Sinn Fein. Fine Gael would happily be the opposition to a Sinn Fein government, there would be plenty of opportunities.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

If Fine Gael lose seats, and become the second or third biggest party, that will be the second election in a row that they will have lost seats. From a tactical point of view, they will argue that the electorate don't want them involved in government and/or a confidence and supply arrangement. That would leave FF having to form a government from the rest or with Sinn Fein. Fine Gael would happily be the opposition to a Sinn Fein government, there would be plenty of opportunities.

Judging from that leaked missive from official FG, I'd say they will be bitter if they don't get anything other than an outright majority.

blanch152 wrote: »

If Fine Gael lose seats, and become the second or third biggest party, that will be the second election in a row that they will have lost seats. From a tactical point of view, they will argue that the electorate don't want them involved in government and/or a confidence and supply arrangement. That would leave FF having to form a government from the rest or with Sinn Fein. Fine Gael would happily be the opposition to a Sinn Fein government, there would be plenty of opportunities.

I would agree, thats a reasonably assessment.

But what if a FF/SF government did not make a complete balls of things?

In a subsequent election neither FF or FG could dismiss SF's relevance as they do now. I would then see SF support growing.

blanch152 wrote: »

If Fine Gael lose seats, and become the second or third biggest party, that will be the second election in a row that they will have lost seats. From a tactical point of view, they will argue that the electorate don't want them involved in government and/or a confidence and supply arrangement. That would leave FF having to form a government from the rest or with Sinn Fein. Fine Gael would happily be the opposition to a Sinn Fein government, there would be plenty of opportunities.

No. Varadkar has already said ‘I am certainly not ruling out any future arrangement with Fianna Fáil, either confidence and supply or coalition’.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fine-gael-could-support-fianna-f%C3%A1il-led-government-says-varadkar-1.4016969
To effectively force the involvement of SF in government by refusing to do another deal with FF would be unforgivable as far as most FG voters are concerned and I can't see any FG leader doing it.

efanton wrote: »

FF might prefer LAB or the Greens but when push comes to shove and the numbers dont stack they will definitely consider a SF coalition.

Would FG do the same, they might not, but I guarantee you that they certainly would give it serious consideration despite what they might be telling the electorate.

Why didn't either of them consider it in 2016 then?

Dravokivich

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Why didn't either of them consider it in 2016 then?

SF made a point of saying they wont go into government under a coalition. Short memories seem to be affecting voters again.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Why didn't either of them consider it in 2016 then?

Because they formed a FG/FF coalition, despite what either of them would like to call it.

If FF are stating the supply and confidence is not working, then they are either taking that away from the table as being an option, or as is typical simply playing to the electorate in the hopes of garnering more votes but then changing their mind or doing a ?U-turn as and when it suits them.

So are FF true to their word, has supply and confidence not worked and therefore not an option? in which case they would almost certainly require SF support to form a government unless FF gain a Dail majority (highly unlikely), or are they being totally two faced claiming supply and confidence doesn't work and as likely to form another coalition with FG.

FF think they pulled a fast one by claiming they werent in government, they certainly were in all but name, and are hoping that the electorate perceive them as having nothing to do with what the current government has done while they have supported this government all along. Personally I dont think as many of the electorate have fallen for this political stunt as they might think. I certainly dont think they will come close to being near a Dail majority

blanch152 wrote: »

If Fine Gael lose seats, and become the second or third biggest party, that will be the second election in a row that they will have lost seats. From a tactical point of view, they will argue that the electorate don't want them involved in government and/or a confidence and supply arrangement. That would leave FF having to form a government from the rest or with Sinn Fein. Fine Gael would happily be the opposition to a Sinn Fein government, there would be plenty of opportunities.

Neither FG or FF will shirk the responsibility of government in any form. It's in their genes. Others on the other hand ... suit themselves. If FG are not needed they'll have lots of fun from opposition.

Dravokivich wrote: »

SF made a point of saying they wont go into government under a coalition. Short memories seem to be affecting voters again.

No, that's absolutely not the case.

Do you not remember at their latest Ard Feis where the party voted to leave entering a coalition as a junior partner as an option.

Dravokivich wrote: »

SF made a point of saying they wont go into government under a coalition. Short memories seem to be affecting voters again.

But Martin made no attempt to change their mind...