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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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[Deleted User]

This decision about a decision seems in itself to be turning into a bit of brinkmanship. Just when you thought Brexit couldn't get anymore troublesome.

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1187668859026919425?s=20

Tea Shock

Certain people (eg Farage) get all outraged when told people who voted 'Leave' in 2016 didn't know what they were voting for, they say leavers are being spoken to like they are stupid.

These same people...eg farage.... have also said the widely proposed 2-tier ballot paper idea (a choice between Leave and Remain followed by a second question on what type of leave that would only get counted in the event of the leave side winning again) is too complicated for voters...go figure!

In any case, it's too late for the UK. The Tory's have fuked the country up. The genie is out of the bottle. Apart from the division it has sewed, Brexit has already cost the UK economy £77 Billion and even if a new referendum was held tomorrow and remain won, that cost would continue to grow for at least another decade.

murphaph

hotmail.com wrote: »

Wait, do people dispute the anti European Union/ anti Europe feeling in Britain - it's all a myth?

Of course not. It's your attempt to convince us that the UK has been anti-Europe for centuries that is a myth.

If I tell porky pies in most national newspapers (and they were mostly lies) for 45 years then it has an effect.

If the truth about the EU had been reported (mostly mundane but useful stuff) it would have sold far fewer papers.

The PM is a proven liar for heaven's sake. He was fired for it in a previous job.

prawnsambo

hotmail.com wrote: »

I've just moved on from this. Most others have as well.

You can't 'move on' from electoral fraud. If it isn't dealt with and proper preventative measures instituted, it will happen again.

Sam Russell

'Getting Brexit done!' is a nonsense in terms of passing the current deal and it is all over. It is just a basic lie. The 'deal' is only the withdrawal agreement (WA) and leads onto the next step - a future relationship agreement - a trade agreement.

A GE is a particularly bad option because it is quite likely that the 'winner' will not get much more than 35% of the popular vote, and it is quite likely that it will result in a hung parliament.

Now if the WA has taken three years and still not agreed, and passed HoC, then it bodes ill for the TA that is to follow.

A 2nd referendum with this WA vs Revoke has the possibility that one or other will win out. If it is Revoke, then they can move on and never speak of Brexit again, particularly if the result is decisive. It it is to leave with the WA, then so be it - at least they know that is what is decided and they will have to live with it.

Without a 2nd ref, then Brexit will continue to be a cancer in the UK body politic for generations, particularly if 'project fear' turns out to be prescient, and the experts were in fact correct.

Tea Shock

Our old friend Laura Kuenssberg is making herself busy winding up the opposition on behalf of the government yet again

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1187624385206722561

As if the opposition need number 10's permission to debate something!

Zubeneschamali

Sam Russell wrote: »

Without a 2nd ref, then Brexit will continue to be a cancer in the UK body politic for generations, particularly if 'project fear' turns out to be prescient, and the experts were in fact correct.

Oh, I think it will be a cancer for 50 years no matter what.

But everyone would be better off if the English Patient was in the EU rather than outside.

hotmail.com

murphaph wrote: »

Of course not. It's your attempt to convince us that the UK has been anti-Europe for centuries that is a myth.

If I tell porky pies in most national newspapers (and they were mostly lies) for 45 years then it has an effect.

If the truth about the EU had been reported (mostly mundane but useful stuff) it would have sold far fewer papers.

The PM is a proven liar for heaven's sake. He was fired for it in a previous job.

I disagree. Britain has been at odds with her European neighbours. The Brexit vote was a culmination of that feeling.

hotmail.com

murphaph wrote: »

Of course not. It's your attempt to convince us that the UK has been anti-Europe for centuries that is a myth.

If I tell porky pies in most national newspapers (and they were mostly lies) for 45 years then it has an effect.

If the truth about the EU had been reported (mostly mundane but useful stuff) it would have sold far fewer papers.

The PM is a proven liar for heaven's sake. He was fired for it in a previous job.

I disagree. Britain has been at odds with her European neighbours. The Brexit vote was a culmination of that feeling.

Why are you saying for heavens sake about Boris being a proven liar?

Did I say otherwise?

Zubeneschamali

Tea Shock wrote: »

Our old friend Laura Kuenssberg is making herself busy winding up the opposition on behalf of the government yet again

Yes, very pro-government talking points.

Two possibilities she does not mention: Labour back Johnson's election, and then Johnson sets the date for after No Deal Brexit happens.

...or Labour back the election, Johnson let's them debate the WAB, they amend it all to hell with a referendum and Custom's Union, but then the Government dissolves Parliament for the election before the final vote, and the bill lapses.

murphaph

hotmail.com wrote: »

I disagree. Britain has been at odds with her European neighbours. The Brexit vote was a culmination of that feeling.

ALL European countries have been "at odds" (literally at war) with their neighbours for centuries. That's why most have the common sense to see the benefit of the EU!

Danzy

hotmail.com wrote: »

I disagree. Britain has been at odds with her European neighbours. The Brexit vote was a culmination of that feeling.

Easier to see the last 40 years as the best of Britain's relationship with the continent rather than a downward trend.

Tea Shock

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, very pro-government talking points.

Two possibilities she does not mention: Labour back Johnson's election, and then Johnson sets the date for after No Deal Brexit happens.

...or Labour back the election, Johnson let's them debate the WAB, they amend it all to hell with a referendum and Custom's Union, but then the Government dissolves Parliament for the election before the final vote, and the bill lapses.

They won't say it out loud, but I am pretty sure this is why the EU are delaying naming an extension to date today. If an election is coming, it'll be a longer one that Johnson cannot reasonably set the election date to after. If there is no election, it will be a November 29th extension!

CelticRambler

hotmail.com wrote: »

It seems that you want to pinpoint the loss of the referendum squarely on the illegal practices of the Leave side during the campaign.

My point as I've said already, that this is nonsense. There was a long standing anti European attitude in Britain.

hotmail.com wrote: »

The Brits want out.. that's what they voted for.

In the two posts above, we have the perfect explanation of why Brexit is a mess: The Brits most certainly do not want out of Europe. Their problem is they - and posters who argue this point - is that there is no single definition of what the "Europe" is that they want out of. To take a very recent example: Thomas Cook. Tens of thousands of Brits were quite happy to spend their GBPs on airlines benefiting from EASA regulation of their aircraft, flying through European Air Traffic Control, benefiting from EU-directed consumer protection regulation, to visit another EU country, visa-free, where they could use their mobile phones under EU-directed "at home" tariffs, protected by at least an EHIC in case of injury, but possibly also travel insurance subject to the same guarantees in "Europe" as GB, and eating food prepared in catering establishments that had been certified safe according to the same standards as any eatery in their local High Street. If they were unfortunate enough to be the victim of crime, they could have counted on the mutual recognition of security protocols and legal decisions. And at the end of their trip, they were free to bring back to the UK just about anything they'd bought, borrowed or found without fear of prosecution.

Which part of all that so angers the British that they want to trash their relationship with 27 other countries on the European continent?

It is utterly pointless arguing in favour of anything Brexity on the grounds that "the people voted to leave" until you've answered the question "Leave what?" ... and if there's even one Leaver who says "this is not what I voted for in 2016" then it calls into question the whole vote.

Zubeneschamali

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The poll doesn't ask if pensioners are going to attack MPs or remainers, it just asks if they think violence would be a price worth paying for Brexit

Following myself up to note that Kim Warren on Twitter checked the actual survey, and the headline is misleading.

The actual question asks about the risk of violence (without asking how big people think the risk is), not actual violence, and doesn't allow the answer that it is not a risk at all, only:

I want it to happen
Worth the risk
Not worth it.

https://twitter.com/Fellwolf/status/1187613973824397312

[Deleted User]

Varta wrote: »

This. One of my offspring has just returned from France and tells me that few people over there are aware of what the British are up to and even less care. If only they knew that Britain is the centre of the world and the sun never sets, blah de blah.

Most people in the UK have also switched off, a quick look at the BBC news site and the top most read story was about a TV star.

lawred2

Danzy wrote: »

The problem with a referendum is the dragging out of this.

There already was one.

Why would anyone want this to go on.

3 years is nothing in the grand scheme of things. Being bored of a mind numbingly stupid process where the end result is self destruction is no reason to unnecessarily conclude that process of self destruction.

jimmycrackcorm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The UK will leave. The EU will last a few years longer but I think ultimately it is a failed experiment.

We will go back to sovereignty over our affairs and the EU will be the much looser economic community we first joined. Transitioning from the euro will be difficult but Ireland is pretty well placed as is Germany. Other countries it will hit them a little harder but they'll survive. We all move on.

Have you any non imaginary basis to suggest that the EU will fail? If anything Brexit will demonatrate that countries are better off in the EU than out.

Britain has been on a downhill spiral since the days of the empire in terms of global influence through to manufacturing prowess. There will be as much of a gain for Britain post brexit as the rust belt will see in the US after voting for trumps MAGA on a not very dissimilar basis.

MrMusician18

Tea Shock wrote: »

Our old friend Laura Kuenssberg is making herself busy winding up the opposition on behalf of the government yet again

As if the opposition need number 10's permission to debate something!

Has Laura K (interesting language here: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/media/2017/sep/29/laura-kuenssberg-profile-bbc-titan-die-for-impartiality-abuse )or Peston responded to the accusations leveled by Peter Oborne.

Danzy

lawred2 wrote: »

3 years is nothing in the grand scheme of things. Being bored of a mind numbingly stupid process where the end result is self destruction is no reason to unnecessarily conclude that process of self destruction.

Self destruction.

A no Deal Brexit would be destruction for all parties, a negotiated deal will not be.

A no Deal Brexit is a fantasy, a negotiation tactic, both sides knew it was and acted accordingly.

The trade deal when done will mirror on going business.

Little us are a bigger trading partner than giant economy Japan for The Brits.

Proximity matters.

devnull

A Number 10 source has now claimed

If the EU offers a Brexit delay the Government can change the date of departure through secondary legislation, known as a statutory instrument.

If the opposition are stating that they are not going to call for a general election until the threat of a No Deal Brexit is taken off the table, thn they're certainly not going to vote for a general election if they think that the whole reason for it is so the government can pass legislation which they are unable to stop.

Cummings really isn't very good at this, is he.

prawnsambo

devnull wrote: »

A Number 10 source has now claimed

If the opposition are stating that they are not going to call for a general election until the threat of a No Deal Brexit is taken off the table, thn they're certainly not going to vote for a general election if they think that the whole reason for it is so the government can pass legislation which they are unable to stop.

Cummings really isn't very good at this, is he.

That's complete nonsense. Membership of the EU isn't decided unilaterally. Do they think all this negotiation over A50 was window dressing? How do they even think this could get any traction?

An Ciarraioch

Deleted User wrote: »

This decision about a decision seems in itself to be turning into a bit of brinkmanship. Just when you thought Brexit couldn't get anymore troublesome.

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1187668859026919425?s=20

Most reportage suggests that France is the only holdout, pushing for November 15th, while the other 26 are prepared to accept the 31st of January.

prawnsambo

Danzy wrote: »

Self destruction.

A no Deal Brexit would be destruction for all parties, a negotiated deal will not be.

A no Deal Brexit is a fantasy, a negotiation tactic, both sides knew it was and acted accordingly.

The trade deal when done will mirror on going business.

Little us are a bigger trading partner than giant economy Japan for The Brits.

Proximity matters.

Not true. The hit to UK GDP on Johnson's deal and future relationship is higher than May's deal. Quite considerably higher. And this will hit at the end of the TP. And the FTA (if agreed) will not eliminate NTBs which are significantly more damaging to trade than tariffs.

Joe_ Public

devnull wrote: »

A Number 10 source has now claimed

If the opposition are stating that they are not going to call for a general election until the threat of a No Deal Brexit is taken off the table, thn they're certainly not going to vote for a general election if they think that the whole reason for it is so the government can pass legislation which they are unable to stop.

Cummings really isn't very good at this, is he.

Is there anything in that? Wouldnt they need to bring a SI to change UK law to reflect what they'd agreed with the EU? It would simoly be the same date as agreed.

Strazdas

murphaph wrote: »

ALL European countries have been "at odds" (literally at war) with their neighbours for centuries. That's why most have the common sense to see the benefit of the EU!

Also, Britain has never been an isolationist nation at any point (unlike the USA in WW1 and WW2 for example). It has traditionally had numerous political, military and trading alliances with European nations going back many centuries.

English nationalist Leave voters are trying to reinvent the wheel by attempting to cut off the UK from Europe at a political level.

hotmail.com

murphaph wrote: »

ALL European countries have been "at odds" (literally at war) with their neighbours for centuries. That's why most have the common sense to see the benefit of the EU!

Is this a separate point? I don't see the relevance to what I said about the UK.

MrMusician18

devnull wrote: »

A Number 10 source has now claimed

If the opposition are stating that they are not going to call for a general election until the threat of a No Deal Brexit is taken off the table, thn they're certainly not going to vote for a general election if they think that the whole reason for it is so the government can pass legislation which they are unable to stop.

Cummings really isn't very good at this, is he.

This is exactly what Oborne was talking about. Johnson gives assurance that no deal is off the table, yet No. 10 briefs (anonymously, of course) the exact opposite. So Johnson can maintain two diametrically opposed positions at the same time.

The British press, and particularly those that consider them at the forefront of reporting should be ashamed of themselves for facilitating this duplicity.

RobMc59

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Is that the argument you are going to use when England erupts? The remain side need to think long and hard about the consequences of overturning the referendum.

The situation will be very volatile.

Democracy only works if everyone believes their vote is equal and counted.

You are telling half the population - "your vote doesn't count". "Yes you voted leave, you won - but you don't understand the issues like we do so for your own good we are going to turn this around".

This is playing with fire and it will end in tears.

You know full well how people feel on both sides of this issue (not just the leave side). This is dangerous.

Johnson was a prominent leaver and lied through his teeth from day one-those of us who voted remain believe the electorate was duped by him and his cohorts.You know Johnson is a charlatan so why would you back his perfidious campaign by saying it's the will of the people?
As far as I'm concerned the UK public were lied to and as the shortcomings of the political system didn't allow for a measured referendum approach (as in Ireland)a 2nd referendum with the true facts is a must imo.

WomanSkirtFan8

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Have you any non imaginary basis to suggest that the EU will fail? If anything Brexit will demonatrate that countries are better off in the EU than out.

Britain has been on a downhill spiral since the days of the empire in terms of global influence through to manufacturing prowess. There will be as much of a gain for Britain post brexit as the rust belt will see in the US after voting for trumps MAGA on a not very dissimilar basis.

Absolutely 100% correct. The end of WWII was the death of the British Empire. The EU has managed to keep the peace in europe for the most part for over 70 years. I wouldn't call that a failure or failing project.
:cool: