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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
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Mr.Wemmick

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

indeed. there's no question this has divided communities and families along generational lines. i know personally of quite a few cases where parents and grandparents have fallen-out with younger family members over this.

Sunday roast & Yorkshire pudd may never be the same again!:eek:

I am in the UK quite a lot and that is not my experience anymore. Maybe back in 2016 it was. More detailed info is now available compared to 2016, and anyone with a functioning brain cell can access info from respectable knowledgable specialists, industry heads, journalists to find that this whole brexit is a complete tory stitch-up. Tony Connelly, btw, is well known in the UK now.

And brexiteers Sun readers who still cry out loud for brexit, come across like eejits to everyone at this stage. Seriously, the country has woken up.. the longer Johnson doesn't deliver, the more clued-in folks will become.

Danzy

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

very interesting graphic.
it would seem the older, less educated and lower one's income the more likely that person voted leave.
conversely younger, more educated with higher incomes voted remain.

but last time i checked each vote cast is of equal importance and validity.

The middle and upper class largely benefit from globalization and neoliberalism, lower down the ladder do not.

London as the centre of both of those benefits from both, places like Manchester do as well so all classes depended on protecting such things.

The class element of leave vs remain is often over looked in this mix.

prawnsambo

Varta wrote: »

I find this notion that as new voters come on stream the electorate will suddenly become more in favour of remain a strange one. It belies the fact that a similar number of people are also moving into the other end of the spectrum, which is the reason change happens slowly.

Beaten to it by josip.

You can actually find the data for new voter registrations on the UK voter registration website.

This year so far, there were over 4 million new registrations from the under 25 to 44 year age bracket and just under 1.5 million in the over 44 age bracket. Taken in conjunction with the graphic I posted above, that represents a possibly larger margin of remain V leave voters coming on stream. Applying the same percentages as voted in each age group in 2016 to the new voters in the same demographics, you get 3.3 million remain and 2.3 million leave approximately. Not very far from the margin of leave over remain in 2016.

10000maniacs

prawnsambo wrote: »

This is a breakdown on this site.

That's the way it comes across when tv news reporters go out and meet the locals.
"I have diabetes and am worried about supply of insulin",
"Which way did you vote?"
"Leave"

briany

Show the graph above to a Leave voter and they might say something like, "Hm, it's as if the more life experience and wisdom you have, the more likely you are to vote Leave. Huh..."

c.p.w.g.w

Varta wrote: »

I find this notion that as new voters come on stream the electorate will suddenly become more in favour of remain a strange one. It belies the fact that a similar number of people are also moving into the other end of the spectrum, which is the reason change happens slowly.

Beaten to it by josip.

I do think there was a few elements in the first referendum that will be different for a 2nd referendum.
Red Bus of lies has be proven to be a lie
Protest Voters(who never thought leave would win) will vote remain

Varta

prawnsambo wrote: »

You can actually find the data for new voter registrations on the UK voter registration website.

This year so far, there were over 4 million new registrations from the under 25 to 44 year age bracket and just under 1.5 million in the over 44 age bracket. Taken in conjunction with the graphic I posted above, that represents a possibly larger margin of remain V leave voters coming on stream. Applying the same percentages as voted in each age group in 2016 to the new voters in the same demographics, you get 3.3 million remain and 2.3 million leave approximately. Not very far from the margin of leave over remain in 2016.

However, that doesn't take into account the remain voters who are now older and have perhaps changed their mind as a consequence. It's all very unclear tbh, but it's wrong to assume that new voters automatically increases the remain vote by any significant margin.

Varta

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

I am in the UK quite a lot and that is not my experience anymore. Maybe back in 2016 it was. More detailed info is now available compared to 2016, and anyone with a functioning brain cell can access info from respectable knowledgable specialists, industry heads, journalists to find that this whole brexit is a complete tory stitch-up. Tony Connelly, btw, is well known in the UK now.

And brexiteers Sun readers who still cry out loud for brexit, come across like eejits to everyone at this stage. Seriously, the country has woken up.. the longer Johnson doesn't deliver, the more clued-in folks will become.

I suspect you are mixing with remainers mostly. I've been there quite a lot this year and all I see is a country bitterly divided.

Water John

Prawn sets out the logic as to why the Remain vote may have caught up with the Leave numbers. Has anyone got recent polling?

[Deleted User]

Varta wrote: »

I suspect you are mixing with remainers mostly. I've been there quite a lot this year and all I see is a country bitterly divided.

Yeah, the majority of leave voters would vote leave again, same for remain.
It is the ones who did not vote last time that will decide the outcome.

There will be few that switch sides.

ancapailldorcha

Water John wrote: »

Prawn sets out the logic as to why the Remain vote may have caught up with the Leave numbers. Has anyone got recent polling?

This is from August:

68533?crop=16_9&width=660&relax=1&signature=qAEX0Xjg2RRoxklZHa4K_3JzR70=

From LBC:

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/remain-55-45-second-referendum-brexit-poll/

Prorogation won't have hurt Remain's odds.

This is more recent:

Source.

Strazdas

Apparently, many of the Leave voting OAPs are well off, middle class pensioners in the south of England with three bedroom houses and two cars in the driveway.

It would be fascinating to discover how this demographic acquired such a hatred of the EU.

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

Apparently, many of the Leave voting OAPs are well off. middle class pensioners in the south of England with three bedroom houses and two cars in the driveway.

It would be fascinating to discover how this demographic acquired such a hatred of the EU.

The press.

Gerry T

Strazdas wrote: »

Apparently, many of the Leave voting OAPs are well off, middle class pensioners in the south of England with three bedroom houses and two cars in the driveway.

It would be fascinating to discover how this demographic acquired such a hatred of the EU.

Decades of this crap didn't help
https://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The press.

Brainwashing mainly then.....many of their reasons for disliking the EU are facile and don't stand up to any sort of scrutiny.

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

Brainwashing mainly then.....many of their reasons for disliking the EU are facile and don't stand up to any sort of scrutiny.

It's because it's a conclusion that they never arrived at themselves, it's one which has been pushed as part of the British tabloid owners' agenda which is driven by their hatred of the EU and their upcoming anti-tax avoidance measures. They've been fed this drivel for decades well before skepticism of the news became so entrenched in society so they took it in good faith.

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's because it's a conclusion that they never arrived at themselves, it's one which has been pushed as part of the British tabloid owners' agenda which is driven by their hatred of the EU and their upcoming anti-tax avoidance measures. They've been fed this drivel for decades well before skepticism of the news became so entrenched in society so they took it in good faith.

Yes, Brexit has been a bit of a perfect storm. A lying, toxic media coupled with a failed political system with no constitution.....it couldn't have happened in any other country in Europe.

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, Brexit has been a bit of a perfect storm. A lying, toxic media coupled with a failed political system with no constitution.....it couldn't have happened in any other country in Europe.

I don't see how a constitution would have prevented Brexit to be honest. Countries like Ireland aren't really a fair example given how widely and often referenda are used there.

Tea Shock

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Seriously, the country has woken up.. the longer Johnson doesn't deliver, the more clued-in folks will become.

have you got an explanation for last weeks ComRes poll saying 54% want to honour the referendum result?

A larger than normal sample set and seems at odds with some other recent polling

Varta

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The press.

Not enough of a reason in itself. Another big reason is that many British people have never moved on from the colonial era. At least in their heads. The idea of sharing any kind of power or authority doesn't sit well with them. A little bit like the DUP when you think about it.

Water John

I would look at the wording. If the question was about 'honouring' then the negative of that is 'dishonour'. So the question possibly skewed the result.
Who responds to a Poll, suggesting to dishonour something?

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't see how a constitution would have prevented Brexit to be honest. Countries like Ireland aren't really a fair example given how widely and often referenda are used there.

Cameron couldn't have held his 'would you like to leave the EU?' referendum with a written constitution. He would have to decide to leave the EU and put that decision to the electorate for ratification.

VinLieger

Strazdas wrote: »

Cameron couldn't have held his 'would you like to leave the EU?' referendum with a written constitution. He would have to decide to leave the EU and put that decision to the electorate for ratification.

Indeed and such a result would have been legally binding meaning either the referendum would have been far stricter OR the stuff the leave campaign got up to would have meant the result being thrown out by the courts.

ancapailldorcha

Varta wrote: »

Not enough of a reason in itself. Another big reason is that many British people have never moved on from the colonial era. At least in their heads. The idea of sharing any kind of power or authority doesn't sit well with them. A little bit like the DUP when you think about it.

Having lived here for nearly a decade, I don't think there is anything to this. The anti-EU papers have been purveying their poison unchallenged for decades now. That and the economic downturn many have experienced have made for the perfect recipe for the Leave vote.

Strazdas wrote: »

Cameron couldn't have held his 'would you like to leave the EU?' referendum with a written constitution. He would have to decide to leave the EU and put that decision to the electorate for ratification.

Only if the constitution had provisions to this end.

Going Strong

Strazdas wrote: »

Apparently, many of the Leave voting OAPs are well off, middle class pensioners in the south of England with three bedroom houses and two cars in the driveway.

It would be fascinating to discover how this demographic acquired such a hatred of the EU.

I read somewhere that this demographic is mostly the same one that, 40 years ago, took a gamble on Margaret Thatcher. The curbing of trade unions, deregulating nationalised utilities and breaking open the housing market benefited them and they saw Brexit as another opportunity to diminish state control once again.

After all, they've voted Conservative to impose austerity on "Work Shy Scroungers" and deter immigrants from "Clogging up the NHS". Brexit should return sovereignty to Westminster to remove any EU-related impediments to further cuts in government spending so that "The Squeezed Middle" such as themselves can be feather-bedded some more.

In short, they feel that, whatever downsides there might be to Brexit, they will be immune from it and relatively wealthy enough to profit from it at the expense of the 'undeserving'.

Seth Brundle

Gerry T wrote: »

Decades of this crap didn't help
https://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

Out of curiosity, do the EU have similar stats for any other member state?

prawnsambo

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Having lived here for nearly a decade, I don't think there is anything to this. The anti-EU papers have been purveying their poison unchallenged for decades now. That and the economic downturn many have experienced have made for the perfect recipe for the Leave vote.

Only if the constitution had provisions to this end.

Well it's likely that the constitution (like ours) would have to be changed in the event of brexit. So it would be a constitutional referendum.

ancapailldorcha

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well it's likely that the constitution (like ours) would have to be changed in the event of brexit. So it would be a constitutional referendum.

The UK just doesn't have that culture of using referenda this way though. Here, they've only really been used in regions to settle local issues with the exception of the 1975 and 2011 referenda. Three referenda spread out over nearly 45 years is indicative of this. Parliament here is sovereign, not the people so Parliament is ultimately trusted to do the right thing and get on with it. Until recently, I would have been a proponent of this model as it has ensured relatively smooth and stable government for this nation for several centuries with the obvious exception of David Cameron opening of Pandora's Political Pythos in 2016.

prawnsambo

Tea Shock wrote: »

have you got an explanation for last weeks ComRes poll saying 54% want to honour the referendum result?

A larger than normal sample set and seems at odds with some other recent polling

There are roughly 20% in that poll preferring no deal. Still a lot of people in that camp. For the record, the question that the 54% above were asked was

"Regardless of the way you voted in the 2016 referendum, do you support or oppose the UK abiding by the referendum result and leaving the EU?"

prawnsambo

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The UK just doesn't have that culture of using referenda this way though. Here, they've only really been used in regions to settle local issues with the exception of the 1975 and 2011 referenda. Three referenda spread out over nearly 45 years is indicative of this. Parliament here is sovereign, not the people so Parliament is ultimately trusted to do the right thing and get on with it. Until recently, I would have been a proponent of this model as it has ensured relatively smooth and stable government for this nation for several centuries with the obvious exception of David Cameron opening of Pandora's Political Pythos in 2016.

No, but it's become clear that the current so-called constitution is a bit of a misnomer. There is no rule set down in law that can't be ignored by any government with the numbers in parliament to do that. Literally anything can be done in that scenario since there is no higher law that prevents that.