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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

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As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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prawnsambo

Varta wrote: »

I find this notion that as new voters come on stream the electorate will suddenly become more in favour of remain a strange one. It belies the fact that a similar number of people are also moving into the other end of the spectrum, which is the reason change happens slowly.

Beaten to it by josip.

You can actually find the data for new voter registrations on the UK voter registration website.

This year so far, there were over 4 million new registrations from the under 25 to 44 year age bracket and just under 1.5 million in the over 44 age bracket. Taken in conjunction with the graphic I posted above, that represents a possibly larger margin of remain V leave voters coming on stream. Applying the same percentages as voted in each age group in 2016 to the new voters in the same demographics, you get 3.3 million remain and 2.3 million leave approximately. Not very far from the margin of leave over remain in 2016.

Danzy

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

very interesting graphic.
it would seem the older, less educated and lower one's income the more likely that person voted leave.
conversely younger, more educated with higher incomes voted remain.

but last time i checked each vote cast is of equal importance and validity.

The middle and upper class largely benefit from globalization and neoliberalism, lower down the ladder do not.

London as the centre of both of those benefits from both, places like Manchester do as well so all classes depended on protecting such things.

The class element of leave vs remain is often over looked in this mix.

Mr.Wemmick

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

indeed. there's no question this has divided communities and families along generational lines. i know personally of quite a few cases where parents and grandparents have fallen-out with younger family members over this.

Sunday roast & Yorkshire pudd may never be the same again!:eek:

I am in the UK quite a lot and that is not my experience anymore. Maybe back in 2016 it was. More detailed info is now available compared to 2016, and anyone with a functioning brain cell can access info from respectable knowledgable specialists, industry heads, journalists to find that this whole brexit is a complete tory stitch-up. Tony Connelly, btw, is well known in the UK now.

And brexiteers Sun readers who still cry out loud for brexit, come across like eejits to everyone at this stage. Seriously, the country has woken up.. the longer Johnson doesn't deliver, the more clued-in folks will become.

Water John

No 10 has the impression and expressed it to Corbyn that, the French would veto the Ext.

BonnieSituation

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/db50ce98-55f0-4fad-a51b-d03bc468ccec

Go to 10:33:15 seconds.

Interesting use of words by the SoS.

"Dublin doesn't have a veto. We need to talk to them"

prawnsambo

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

there was a woman on LBC last night making the point that BoJo has the "teflon factor" in that indiscretions that would normally end most leader's careers appear to be having little or no impact on him.

I think that depends on where you get the data to make that assertion from. Johnson is cheerled from the rafters by the Telegraph, Mail etc. And we know why that is. None of those organs will do anything to portray him as anything worse than a lovable rogue. When people say that stuff doesn't stick, they are mostly basing that on how he's portrayed in the media.

But it was interesting to see the booing and other verbal attacks he was getting when he went walkabout in various UK towns and cities recently. Was roundly booed when he went to see Nicola Sturgeon, in Wales when he went to meet Mark Drakeford and in England at the chicken farm (among many others). Even the polls that are quoted to show that he's the most popular leader are pretty much damning with faint praise. Varying between 30% and 40%; not exactly resounding.

Varta

woejus wrote: »

Add 1500-2000 a day to the bottom, remain voting cohorts.
Lop the same if not more off the top end, leaver cohorts, every day.

This is why the ERG & swivel-eyed fellow travellers are in mortal fear of a re-run. The war metaphors and images of Britain battling the evil EUSSR just don't fly with anyone under 45 odd.

I find this notion that as new voters come on stream the electorate will suddenly become more in favour of remain a strange one. It belies the fact that a similar number of people are also moving into the other end of the spectrum, which is the reason change happens slowly.

Beaten to it by josip.

josip

woejus wrote: »

Add 1500-2000 a day to the bottom, remain voting cohorts.
Lop the same if not more off the top end, leaver cohorts, every day.

This is why the ERG & swivel-eyed fellow travellers are in mortal fear of a re-run. The war metaphors and images of Britain battling the evil EUSSR just don't fly with anyone under 45 odd.

But everyone still alive who voted in the first referendum is now 3 years older and on average more conservative.

It's not as simple as old leavers have been replaced by young remainers.

Letwin_Larry

woejus wrote: »

Add 1500-2000 a day to the bottom, remain voting cohorts.
Lop the same if not more off the top end, leaver cohorts, every day.

This is why the ERG & swivel-eyed fellow travellers are in mortal fear of a re-run. The war metaphors and images of Britain battling the evil EUSSR just don't fly with anyone under 45 odd.

indeed. there's no question this has divided communities and families along generational lines. i know personally of quite a few cases where parents and grandparents have fallen-out with younger family members over this.

Sunday roast & Yorkshire pudd may never be the same again!:eek:

Joe_ Public

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

there was a woman on LBC last night making the point that BoJo has the "teflon factor" in that indiscretions that would normally end most leader's careers appear to be having little or no impact on him.

Quite arguable position to hold i would think. Whether he has committed one or more career ending indiscretions is debatable, but bar for leaders behaviour is being pushed lower and lower, the tolerance for lying becoming alarmingly higher and higher. Post-truth or whatever you want to call it.

Tired Gardener

If the EU grant another extension; which they will more than likely do, as they don't want to be the ones to Kickstart a No Deal Brexit, I hope they add in a few clauses, and also grant a year. This should be enough for the UK parliament to sort it self out.

Now the question is what should the clauses be? A second referendum, a general election, or both.

Either way the EU have been more than accommodating, all the delay and confusion is coming out of the house of parliament.

If a general election is called for, I doubt Labour would vote to have one until there is a referendum. The Whole Brexit mess is due to infighting within the Tory party and then trying to poach UKIP voters, so changing to a Labour government, would mean that Labour is stuck with the job of cleaning up the Tory mess.

Brexit continues to be a poisoned chalice, hopefully Boris Johnson's career will be it's next victim.

woejus

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

very interesting graphic.
it would seem the older, less educated and lower one's income the more likely that person voted leave.
conversely younger, more educated with higher incomes voted remain.

but last time i checked each vote cast is of equal importance and validity.

Add 1500-2000 a day to the bottom, remain voting cohorts.
Lop the same if not more off the top end, leaver cohorts, every day.

This is why the ERG & swivel-eyed fellow travellers are in mortal fear of a re-run. The war metaphors and images of Britain battling the evil EUSSR just don't fly with anyone under 45 odd.

Letwin_Larry

there was a woman on LBC last night making the point that BoJo has the "teflon factor" in that indiscretions that would normally end most leader's careers appear to be having little or no impact on him.

prawnsambo

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

very interesting graphic.
it would seem the older, less educated and lower one's income the more likely that person voted leave.
conversely younger, more educated with higher incomes voted remain.

but last time i checked each vote cast is of equal importance and validity.

Yes. But it also raises the question of motivation. Why people vote the way they do is of interest to everyone who is trying to influence a vote or plan a campaign.

Joe_ Public

Its johnsons second vote win to be exact. Given their rarity, wouldnt want to deny him that!

As regards that majority of 30, if you take out the 14 lab mps who then opposed the second and more important motion, that majority effectively reduces to 2. Going forward as bill gets more and more fine print scrutiny, i would fancy him to lose more support for it than he would gain, notwithstanding how it might be amended.

lawred2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If he secures an extension then I would think so. I can't see him winning by the margin he needs to get his deal through comfortably though.

There is no way that the EU aren't going to facilitate.

Letwin_Larry

prawnsambo wrote: »

This is a breakdown on this site.

very interesting graphic.
it would seem the older, less educated and lower one's income the more likely that person voted leave.
conversely younger, more educated with higher incomes voted remain.

but last time i checked each vote cast is of equal importance and validity.

jimmycrackcorm

Tea Shock wrote: »

No checks between GB and NI says Johnson

The exact opposite of what his own Secretary of State for Exiting the EU said to a select committee hearing less than 2 days ago! :rolleyes:

Why do the UK have to have checks between NI and GB though? They can for example use their magic technological solutions.

SeaBreezes

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Quin_Dub

devnull wrote: »

Truth and Johnson are rather strange bedfellows.

He keeps saying that his deal got through Parliament last night, despite the fact it hasn't.

He's a compulsive liar.

Well - It is the only vote that he has won as PM , so he's bound to be a bit excited.

From some perspectives the fact that the initial vote was passed by a ~30 majority is probably a sign that the basic support is there, so on some levels he's managed more than May ever did.

But given the defeat of the 2nd vote there are at least 15 or so of those who supported the 1st vote who are worried that there is a gotcha somewhere in the weeds that will make them change their mind and as such want a lot more than 3 days to review the deep level details.

So he's absolutely definitely not in the clear yet.

devnull

Tea Shock wrote: »

No checks between GB and NI says Johnson

The exact opposite of what his own Secretary of State for Exiting the EU said to a select committee hearing less than 2 days ago! :rolleyes:

Truth and Johnson are rather strange bedfellows.

He keeps saying that his deal got through Parliament last night, despite the fact it hasn't.

He's a compulsive liar.

Tea Shock

No checks between GB and NI says Johnson

The exact opposite of what his own Secretary of State for Exiting the EU said to a select committee hearing less than 2 days ago! :rolleyes:

BonnieSituation

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/db50ce98-55f0-4fad-a51b-d03bc468ccec

Go to 10:33:15 seconds.

Cheers. Still away supporting the "Boys in (Darker) Green (since we messed up against the Kiwis)" so you guys, for better or worse, are my Brexit eyes and ears.

ancapailldorcha

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Onwards to the next cliff edge. Its moving but at a snails pace.

The next question is can Johnson get his election?

If he secures an extension then I would think so. I can't see him winning by the margin he needs to get his deal through comfortably though.

Joe_ Public

Corbyn asks Johnson at pmq why if he promises that standards and workers rights will be enhanced they were removed from the legally binding wa. Johnson does not answer the question because the answer is he is almost certainly lying when he makes that promise. There is no logical reason to remove them other than to hold them as bargaining chips in negotiating future trade deals.

ToBeFrank123

Onwards to the next cliff edge. Its moving but at a snails pace.

The next question is can Johnson get his election?

Zubeneschamali

Tea Shock wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=
Section 3 of the Benn Act obliged Johnson to accept an extension to 31 January 2020 if offered, and allowed him to either accept an offer or ask the House of Commons to accept an offer of any other date.

True, but that does not change the fact that what he asked for was a flextension to Jan 31st:

I am writing therefore to inform the European Council that the United Kingdom is seeking a further extension to the period provided under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union, including as applied by Article 106a of the Euratom Treaty. The United Kingdom proposes that this period should end at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. If the parties are able to ratify before this date, the Government proposes that the period should be terminated early.

Tea Shock

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't understand why people are talking about what Johnson might request.

He already requested a flextension to January 31st.

Section 3 of the Benn Act obliged Johnson to accept an extension to 31 January 2020 if offered, and allowed him to either accept an offer or ask the House of Commons to accept an offer of any other date.

Zubeneschamali

BarryD2 wrote: »

It seems that he'll have to go with a 3 month extension at least. If he goes for a short one

I don't understand why people are talking about what Johnson might request.

He already requested a flextension to January 31st.

prawnsambo

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

No problem with the age thing, but educational attainment I don't think played a big part.

Leavers range from Oxford educated BoJo down to people who left school at 15 and who probably feel they can no longer compete for jobs because of their lack of education. I'd imagine UK tradesmen for example are upset at competition from eastern Europeans who can do the job just as well but a lot cheaper. Fishermen are not happy having to compete with EU fishermen.

There were more leave conservative constituencies than labour ones, but a good majority of both.

As for the age thing, yes older people shafted the young with Brexit. However the young will be old some day and will probably do the same to the next generation. The old care less about the future and more about enjoying the present.

This is a breakdown on this site.

A majority (57%) of those with a university degree voted to remain, as did 64% of those with a higher degree and more than four in five (81%) of those still in full time education. Among those whose formal education ended at secondary school or earlier, a large majority voted to leave.