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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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GM228

I think a GE could throw out a few surprises, in the current climate that is Brexit anything can happen and I'm not so sure about any guarantee as to what would happen to Labour or the Conservatives after a GE to be honest.

Kermit.de.frog

farmchoice wrote: »

if you were right surely they would have voted against letwin on saturday

No because that on it's own was never going to lead to an election.

If the bill is pulled it is highly likely there will be an election before Christmas.

And the tories will be licking their lips at the prospect of explaining to constituents who is responsible for the UK not having left on Oct 31st.

It's a home run.

GM228

BarryD2 wrote: »

Boris goes for the broad picture all the time, that's just a pesky detail.

Pretty certin he also mentioned the European Commission offering an extension, another broad picture statement.

farmchoice

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

With the bill being pulled if the timetable is not agreed tonight that means Labour MPs in leave constituencies have a big decision to make - back it or lose their seats.

Labour are desperate to avoid an election at all costs. This will probably help focus minds.

if you were right surely they would have voted against letwin on saturday

Kermit.de.frog

With the bill being pulled if the timetable is not agreed tonight that means Labour MPs in leave constituencies have a big decision to make - back it or lose their seats.

Labour are desperate to avoid an election at all costs. This will probably help focus minds.

Letwin_Larry

briany wrote: »

The first time I saw Michael Fabricant, it was like the Conservatives had got a more Borisy Boris. There's a fair few mad English-eccentric heads knocking around the Conservative party, hidden away on the back benches.

that's brillant. he looks like BoJo's & Trump's lovechild.

Joe_ Public

BarryD2 wrote: »

Boris goes for the broad picture all the time, that's just a pesky detail.

Another sign of how weak and ineffectual the Labour Party are. Full of bluff and bluster but couldn't collectively organise a piss up in a brewery at the moment.

You are underestimating labour. There was all manner of talk of 20-30 lab rebels on saturday and yet, with no 3 line whip in place, there ended up 6. Just 6! Corbyn doesnt want to see what hapened with tory expulsions and i think thats fair enough. Theres enormous pressure on lab mps at moment and to give them some credit i think it is holding together reasonably well so far.

briany

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

How many times must Labour's policy be explained? They would keep the whole UK close enough to allow no hard border, and then hold a referendum and Remain.

Where, exactly, is this second referendum that Corbyn keeps on 'hinting' he's going to back? Is the amendment coming today, or what? They should get a move on with it.

liamtech

BarryD2 wrote: »

Boris goes for the broad picture all the time, that's just a pesky detail.

Another sign of how weak and ineffectual the Labour Party are. Full of bluff and bluster but couldn't collectively organise a piss up in a brewery at the moment.

looks like the votes today may well go for BOJO in this scenario - Those parties opposed to a hard brexit and in favor of a possible second ref - im running out of sympathy for them - they should be able to get the numbers between the SNP Labor and the Lib Dems - but its the usual nonsense - swinson hates corbyn, feeling is mutual - labor defectees berger etc al, hate corbyn etc etc etc - and round we go

BarryD2

GM228 wrote: »

So Johnson threatening to pull the Bill and call a GE if Parliament does not pass the timetable, hope he realises he can't simply call a GE.

Boris goes for the broad picture all the time, that's just a pesky detail.

liamtech wrote: »

So Labor seem to not be whipping on this - do we think tonight's vote will pass then??

Another sign of how weak and ineffectual the Labour Party are. Full of bluff and bluster but couldn't collectively organise a piss up in a brewery at the moment.

briany

Tea Shock wrote: »

I don't know how I've missed him but I never seen that Michael Fabricant before.

I initially thought he was someone wearing a joke Boris wig!

The first time I saw Michael Fabricant, it was like the Conservatives had got a more Borisy Boris. There's a fair few mad English-eccentric heads knocking around the Conservative party, hidden away on the back benches.

Joe_ Public

GM228 wrote: »

So Johnson threatening to pull the Bill and call a GE if Parliament does not pass the timetable, hope he realises he can't simply call a GE.

Lot of pressure on opposition to grant that election though. If bill goes down, where else can they feasibly go?

Zubeneschamali

briany wrote: »

"We can't support a Brexit that would put a hard border on the island of Ireland"

"We can't support a Brexit that would put a hard border in the Irish sea"

Looks like you can't support Brexit, then.

How many times must Labour's policy be explained? They would keep the whole UK close enough to allow no hard border, and then hold a referendum and Remain.

liamtech

So Labor seem to not be whipping on this - do we think tonight's vote will pass then??

GM228

So Johnson threatening to pull the Bill and call a GE if Parliament does not pass the timetable, hope he realises he can't simply call a GE.

liamtech

briany wrote: »

"We can't support a Brexit that would put a hard border on the island of Ireland"

"We can't support a Brexit that would put a hard border in the Irish sea"

Looks like you can't support Brexit, then.

Exactly but it is a matter of fact

liamtech

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, that is consistent with Labour policy, if Brexit is happening the whole UK should stay in a CU, no difference between NI and Britain.

I think the UK remaining in the SM/CU is the only practical way to do brexit

GFA is fine - neither nationalists or unionists priorities have been violated - No Brexit Border in the Irish sea of the 6 counties (of course Unionists dont want it, cause for them it is a tacit admission of the UK not being able to leave the EU fully, because of the nationalists/GFA)

The objections to this are obviously that its a weak remainer brexit - which lets be honest, it would be - but this is the situation we find ourselves in Brexit is Pointless

Letwin_Larry

briany wrote: »

"We can't support a Brexit that would put a hard border on the island of Ireland"

"We can't support a Brexit that would put a hard border in the Irish sea"

Looks like you can't support Brexit, then.

and yet they accuse the Leavers of not knowing what they want!

pot, kettle ..........

Joe_ Public

briany wrote: »

"We can't support a Brexit that would put a hard border on the island of Ireland"

"We can't support a Brexit that would put a hard border in the Irish sea"

Looks like you can't support Brexit, then.

You can support a brexit with a uk wide CU. Maybe just remaining might be the prudent option but you can support it.

ancapailldorcha

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I actually predict they will abstain.

For the simple reason they won't want to make themselves persona non grata with a Tory party heading for a majority after the next election having sabotaged their Brexit timetable.

They can't work with Labour after the election after all.

The DUP couldn't care less about the Tories. For them the union is sacrosanct and they'll be voting on that basis.

farmchoice

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I actually predict they will abstain.

For the simple reason they won't want to make themselves persona non grata with a Tory party heading for a majority after the next election having sabotaged their Brexit timetable.

They can't work with Labour after the election after all.

ah come on!! they voted against government on Saturday, they have said the present deal is an existential threat to the union!! not only will they vote against it they are in such a bind they could very well vote for a second ref!!

Tea Shock

I don't know how I've missed him but I never seen that Michael Fabricant before.

I initially thought he was someone wearing a joke Boris wig!

Most of the time Johnson is talking while looking around for someone to "give way" to. He clearly would rather be anywhere else!

briany

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

it looks like Corbyn is now championing the Union and the stance of the DUP.
the poor guy is all over the shop.

"We can't support a Brexit that would put a hard border on the island of Ireland"

"We can't support a Brexit that would put a hard border in the Irish sea"

Looks like you can't support Brexit, then.

Joe_ Public

GM228 wrote: »

+1, that Bill had 5 days in the HoC alone, and 5 days in the HoL, the WA Bill dosn't even have that time in total. Note my post yesterday on the point:-

The wild animals and circuses act was in relation to 19 animals. Na na na na na 19!

Letwin_Larry

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I actually predict they will abstain.

For the simple reason they won't want to make themselves persona non grata with a Tory party heading for a majority after the next election having sabotaged their Brexit timetable.

They can't work with Labour after the election after all.

i'm betting they'll vote against.
they are a one trick pony of a party, and anything that impinges/undermines that trick is to be vehemently opposed in their view.

still will be interesting to see.

Kermit.de.frog

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

So, that'll be the DUP voting against his deal, then.

I actually predict they will abstain.

For the simple reason they won't want to make themselves persona non grata with a Tory party heading for a majority after the next election having sabotaged their Brexit timetable.

They can't work with Labour after the election after all.

PropJoe10

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

So, that'll be the DUP voting against his deal, then.

I think he's taking the risk of ignoring the DUP on the basis that the ERG will vote for the deal. Most of the ERG seem to be on board (going by what they've said over the last few days) but time will tell!

prawnsambo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Boris Johnson just told the DUP - "if you don't like the arrangements then gather a majority in the assembley to change them".

Spot on.

The DUP don't like democracy either when it does not suit them it seems.

Quoting the GFA to make their argument is the ultimate irony. "But it says here in this treaty that we didn't sign and are virulently opposed to..."

Letwin_Larry

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

So, that'll be the DUP voting against his deal, then.

i dont think that was ever in doubt.

Zubeneschamali

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

it looks like Corbyn is now championing the Union and the stance of the DUP.
the poor guy is all over the shop.

No, that is consistent with Labour policy, if Brexit is happening the whole UK should stay in a CU, no difference between NI and Britain.